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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 11/29
    8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7.5 ) at Dallas ( 7.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Sunday, 12/2
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 6 ) at Miami ( -6 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( -4.5 ) at NY Giants ( 4.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 0 ) at Cincinatti ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5 ) at Houston ( -5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -10 ) at Detroit ( 10 ) —- T: 54.5
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -3.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Atlanta ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -15.5 ) at Oakland ( 15.5 ) —- T: 55.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10 ) at Seattle ( -10 ) —- T: 46
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Monday, 12/3
    8:15 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @CleverGroom said...

    Chris Carson should be good for about 20 rush attempts and 1-2 targets, conservatively, in this spot. His TD equity is quite good. You’re talking about a 10-point home favorite against one of the worst teams in the league, and Carson’s actually talented.

    Granted, I’d prefer a less talented guy getting more targets at the same price, but hey. I won’t be surprised if he has 100+ rushing, 2 TDs, and turns out to be a solid asset in any format. Worth a look when the dude is lost in the shuffle at sub-5% pOWN.

    Look at you CG, touting a Sea player. I always imagine you angry after a sea win. I think I said it a few weeks back, they make the playoffs and nobody will want to face them. Said the same kind of things about Dal before Atl. All the talk is about O’s but it would be perfectly consistent with everything I know about the NFL that teams that play D and can run end up doing well this year.

  • CleverGroom

    @OSU_Bucknut said...

    One of the few constants, is that OAK is turrible against TE’s. With Hunt gone and Watkins out, I think Kelce is a lock

    But like you say, that’s been constant for years, right? When was the last time OAK could defend TEs? I can’t remember such a time.

    Despite that, the career high for Travis Kelce against the Raiders is 18.1 DKFP. He’s played them 8 times. Got 18 targets against that crappy team last year, and still only posted a total of 27.7 DKFP for the year (13.3 at OAK and 14.4 at home).

    It’s literally been months (if not longer?) since a luxury TE won the Milly Maker. I don’t think you can afford him. Even if he gets off the schneid and posts 25, you’re gonna lose to the chalky guy (Eric Ebron, for example) who scores just as much and cost $3k less.

  • Brian7479

    @BIF said...

    With respect to the Bears-Giants game; I can easily see a path where playing a negative correlation play like one of these pays off:

    OBJ-Bears D or Saquon-Bears D

    It’s not like anyone is playing the Bears D for a shutout or a 7 points allowed game; you play the Bears D for sacks and pick 6’s which are both very much in play against Eli BUT the Giants’ offense has been much better of late and are going to have to try to feed someone (playing from behind) and either OBJ or Saquon are getting 10 targets. The Bears D is good but it’s not the ’85 Bears scoring defense and opposing teams have scored on them this year.

    I might be off OBJ for the rest of the season. Eli just hurts him too much. Like way too much. Hopefully the Giants make the right move next year

  • CleverGroom

    @mike42 said...

    Look at you CG, touting a Sea player. I always imagine you angry after a sea win. I think I said it a few weeks back, they make the playoffs and nobody will want to face them. Said the same kind of things about Dal before Atl. All the talk is about O’s but it would be perfectly consistent with everything I know about the NFL that teams that play D and can run end up doing well this year.

    Last week was actually kinda different. I still hate what Brian Schottenheimer is doing—everything he stands for, in fact—but that was a gutsy couple wins against Ole Sad Eyes and at CAR. I respect their moxy, if not their methods.

    Nowadays I’m just excited for SEA to get a wild card spot and go assassinate the Cowboys. Then they’ll get summarily dispatched in the Superdome. Mother Football always finds a way to restore balance to the universe.

  • mike42

    So the general thought regarding Hunts absence on the the KC O is they will getter a bigger piece of the production from the passing game. My best guess is this would be the perfect game to prove business as usual, ware or Hunt, doesn’t matter. Same game plan, we are bigger than 1 player.

    I don’t think Kelce or Hill are better plays because they are swapping rb’s. I think it would be bad for KC to get out of this game without showing their run game is intact. Thats more important than anything else besides getting the W.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @mike42 said...

    So the general thought regarding Hunts absence on the the KC O is they will getter a bigger piece of the production from the passing game. My best guess is this would be the perfect game to prove business as usual, ware or Hunt, doesn’t matter. Same game plan, we are bigger than 1 player.

    I don’t think Kelce or Hill are better plays because they are swapping rb’s. I think it would be bad for KC to get out of this game without showing their run game is intact. I think that’s more important than anything else besides getting the W.

    Agreed. Playoffs are in the horizon and the running game has to be established after their RB1 just got released. What better time than vs. Raiders? I think it’s pretty obvious Ware isn’t going to continue sticking with his old role of only having a few carries and the occasional target. He will slide right in where Hunt was and churn out production.

  • CleverGroom

    @mike42 said...

    So the general thought regarding Hunts absence on the the KC O is they will getter a bigger piece of the production from the passing game. My best guess is this would be the perfect game to prove business as usual, ware or Hunt, doesn’t matter. Same game plan, we are bigger than 1 player.

    I don’t think Kelce or Hill are better plays because they are swapping rb’s. I think it would be bad for KC to get out of this game without showing their run game is intact. Thats more important than anything else besides getting the W.

    Right. And Spencer Ware is more than capable as a runner in Andy Reid’s offense. We’ve seen it happen already. There are receipts.

    Tyreek Hill is still an awesome play, though. It’s a road game and he’s that guy who can put up 15+ on a single play, so the volume isn’t necessarily a huge concern. I think it’s harder for Travis Kelce to get there if he’s eased out when they’re leading by 30+ in the 3rd quarter.

  • mike42

    Ok, last post before I go nighty night. Is there any other team where you could see the 2nd TE score 2 TD’s when the first one flops and is extremely chalky more the man Indy? Ebron has been smashing when Doyle is supposed to be the guy. He scored 3x last game Vs Jax 2 days ago, i think Indy will keep an eye on him and I’m guesing Swoope will get more red zone tgts than most TE’s Sunday and maybe more than most starting WR’s. The second TE on Indy has been an idea I’ve had all week and it’s been a good idea most weeks.

  • CleverGroom

    @mike42 said...

    Ok, last post before I go nighty night. Is there any other team where you could see the 2nd TE score 2 TD’s when the first one flops and is extremely chalky more the man Indy? Ebron has been smashing when Doyle is supposed to be the guy. He scored 3x last game Vs Jax 2 days ago, i think Indy will keep an eye on him and I’m guesing Swoope will get more red zone tgts than most TE’s Sunday and maybe more than most starting WR’s. The second TE on Indy has been an idea I’ve had all week and it’s been a good idea most weeks.

    I don’t really buy that, because I think their entire plan with Eric Ebron has been to limit him to doing only what he does well. They’re playing him as a RZ weapon for the most part, and what do you know? It works, because he’s not worrying about cocking up things that he’s bound to cock up if he’s asked to do them, and because Andrew Luck is awesome.

    I’ve spent a lot of time trying to be cute here and play the non-chalky IND TE, but I think that’s the wrong lesson. The correct lesson is simply that Eric Ebron has one of the best roles of any TE in the NFL, for fantasy purposes. He’s what we wanted Trey Burton to be, before the season. I don’t think that’ll change when it’s been working so very well.

  • Dsingleton3321

    Chiefs fan here, Spencer was suppose to be our starting RB last year then he got hurt and our 3rd round draft pick in hunt made us forget about the Spencer Ware days. In 311 rushes Ware has 1500 yards and 10 TDs. In limited playing time this year he’s averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Don’t be stupid lock and load Ware in all formats at only 4K. It’s a free square. I will be very overweight on Ware. Although I’m guessing he’s near 40% owned even in big tournaments.

  • fleishmo6

    I faded the entire Thursday night game in the Thurs-Monday slate
    So I have my entire LU
    Thinking about paying down at RBs with Big Ben
    But now I am second guessing knowing that usage for expensive RBs used Thursday night?
    Maybe pivot and pay for other expensive backs and free square Ware
    Go with cheaper WRs
    Humphries/DJ Moore etc
    Thoughts

  • Brian7479

    @Mike, this question is for everybody but I want Mike to chime in too as he’s done pretty well at “guessing” coaches thoughts/game plan.

    So first one, the Rams obviously have superbowl hopes. Being that it’s already week 13 and they already lost Kupp to injury what are the chances that McVey is going to aim to limit Gurleys touches and make sure he’s not out of gas or injured for the playoffs? He had his lowest touches on the season (comfortably) in their last game against KC in a great positional matchup. Just wondering if limiting him is something the Rams will look to do as I probably won’t have any of him.

    The 2nd guy is McCaffrey. I think it’s different from Gurley in that Carolina won’t be aiming to limit him for rest purposes but I’m kind of wondering if this could be more of a Cam game? CMC has been nothing short of great the past 4 weeks. He’s been amazing. But even with him being great they still lost their last 3 games. Do you guys think this could be more of a Cam game? I kind of like stacking him with a lower owned Curtis Samuel. Can a Cam/Samuel stack be considered leverage over chalky guys in CMCand DJ Moore? Don’t get me wrong I will definitely have some CMC but I’m wondering how much Cam I want and to a certain extent Samuel. With Ware and other value guys in play I can see a lot of people going value and cramming in CMC and/or Gurley and while I do like Ware I’m thinking about going with some value and mid priced guys instead of the value and high priced guys.

  • P0key

    @DaBum2012 said...

    Security needs to do a better job keeping groupies out of there so this doesn’t happen.

  • frUnk

    Hello Specer Ware chalk week, free square at only $4k on DK. You can also lock in TE LaCosse from Denver, now that Heuerman is on IR. He could be another lock too at $2500 min price on DK. LaCosse went 3/34/1 on 4 targets last week. Always love playing guys who will be getting a larger role, and now can prove they can ball. Not sure how he doesn’t hit value at $2500 this week.

    Start with Ware, LaCosse, and a DST, you got $6800 average per remaining player.

    Going to be a high scoring week on DK.

  • P0key

    Mods -we need a Kareem Hunt Thread..

    Some of the takes on the situation are amazing

  • Tribefan18

    Carson was actually in my first lineup when doing research.

  • frUnk

    @Tribefan18 said...

    Carson was actually in my first lineup when doing research.

    Carson gets like 0 receiving work. He’s had 2 good scoring weeks on DK. Week 3 and Week 8. Look back at the logs, Week 3 Mike Davis had 0 score on DK. Week 8 Rashaad Penny had 0 score. Not sure if those guys were injured and out that week, or they just didn’t see the field. But it’s kind of a coincidence, that Carson’s 2 best weeks, were when one of the 3 RBs got zero work. Carson had 25 and 32 carries those weeks.

    So ask yourself, if it takes Carson getting that amount of carries to smash, is he going to get that volume this week, with all 3 RBs playing?

    I don’t think he does, therefore I’m not interested in Carson. He’s also at his highest price of the season on DK, why do we want to play a $5200 priced RB, stuck in a 3 back RBBC, who has 13 targets on the entire season?

    I’d rather go up to Lindsay at $5400 over Carson.

    EDIT:. Also just read that Rashaad Penny is supposed to be getting a larger role this week.

  • depalma13

    Who knew hammering in Gurley, McCaffery and Barkley would be so contrarian this week.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @lotusbomb said...

    Ware is not going to be the guy out there in the late 3rd and on quarter running to run clock

    Does this make D+D Williams relevant?

  • squidkill

    go away please

  • CleverGroom

    @frUnk said...

    I’d rather go up to Lindsay at $5400 over Carson.

    I do think Phillip Lindsay is clearly better than Chris Carson on DK. Carson’s more interesting as a GPP pivot/player pool guy.

  • hankmcgreen

    Eric Ebron is clearly underpriced on DK, but am I trying to get too cute by wanting to play Gronk over him in cash games? I just feel like the Vikings Patriots games is going to be extremely competitive, and Gronk should get around 8 targets. The Vikings have been decent against the tight end, but I think Brady will lean on Gronk more on this matchup, as the Vikings defense has been solid as of late in all other aspects, and I could see Gronk having 2-3 touchdowns.

  • dmac37

    Any thoughts with Chris Thompson on DK? A big “if” his usage returns to where he was at to start the season he could be a good play. Washington is still in the hunt, really needs a boost to their offense and AD seems to be losing steam. Rib injuries should be all or nothing and he has been out long enough to completely heal.

  • lukemiller42

    Im sticking to my guns. If you watch kc play they are not passing checkdowns. Ware will be 40% owned and targeted in the passing game maybe twice. Baaaaad combo

  • ssilberman2012

    @MrFreeze53 said...

    Lol okay. By your words it’s just riskier and stupid. I’ll allow if it makes you feel better you’re not a trifecta of being ignorant as well.

    lets play h2h DK

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