NFL FORUM

Thursday, 11/29
8:20 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7.5 ) at Dallas ( 7.5 ) —- T: 52.5

Sunday, 12/2
1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 6 ) at Miami ( -6 ) —- T: 40.5
1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( -4.5 ) at NY Giants ( 4.5 ) —- T: 45
1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 0 ) at Cincinatti ( 0 ) —- T: —
1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3.5 ) —- T: 56
1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5 ) at Houston ( -5 ) —- T: —
1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( -10 ) at Detroit ( 10 ) —- T: 54.5
1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -3.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) —- T: 48
1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Atlanta ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -15.5 ) at Oakland ( 15.5 ) —- T: 55.5
4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: 48.5
4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10 ) at Seattle ( -10 ) —- T: 46
8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3.5 ) —- T: 52.5

Monday, 12/3
8:15 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44

Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

I always miss good Ebron chalk. Gotta do it this week…

Much love to the Oakland fan in here who said play Mark Andrews bcuz his team sucks vs Tight Ends..I’m going back to him since ATL sucks vs Tight Ends too

At first glance I like Jameis in GPP. When he got benched for Fitz he said it was very humbling and although it’s an extremely small sample he’s really played a lot better in the 6 quarters since then. Maybe he needed that wake up call

I think it is the former. the chalk stud RB’s have hit so consistently, the QB’s are priced cheap compared to their historical prices and TE is a lotto. So we left to discuss the WR position. NFL DFS this season feels very formulaic.

Too many QBs are a lock for 4x at this pricing all year. 4x and 5x were GPP winning scores last year, now you need your QB to hit 4x to even be cash viable.

He’s dad several chances to wake up not the least of which was getting away with sexually assaulting a girl in college. I just read that TB really focused on the short passing game last week and they went more balanced than we’ve seen them all year which I felt was somewhat predictable. You really need Car to open up the game early I think to see TB revert back to their wild ways which is somewhere between possible and the most likely scenario. That rookie cb’s injurry status is definitely worth monitoring for Car too.

I just don’t think you can draw a direct line between a good second half Vs a bad Giants prevent D and a solid game Vs a bad SF D that got zero help from its O to personal or professional growth from this particular psychopath. I also got a feeling that starting last week the TB O that has been awesome for DFS takes a step back in the fantasy goodness dept. Maybe better for cash than GPP’s.

You can certainly be right about them scaling back their aggressiveness but I don’t think Carolinas pass D is much better than the Giants or 49ers if at all. And I feel like Carolina will force Tampa to score. The thing that sticks out to me is Tampa went a little more balanced and won comfortably and Jameis still threw the ball 38 times. It didn’t turn into a ton of yards but I think part of that was because they didn’t need it to. Carolinas last 5 games have hit 57, 70, 73, 39 and 57 points. Again I think Carolina forces Tampa to score and I think Jameis is a great GPP play

Oh, goody, I can have 1 millionaire maker lineup for the price of 5! pass.

Does make sense with a guy like T.Y. Mostly against Ramsey, and his numbers are always low against Jack…
Looking at his stats and if you had asked me how much time TY has missed over his career I would have said 5 games a year on avg.
He has only missed 1 start in the past 5 years, 2013 he missed 6 of 16 starts, but as shown, 1 game since then… Sure is on the “Q” a lot and must always play thru it…

Always seems to do better vs mid tier teams, never when you lick your chops in a match up or against a stud Def.

They ran 70 plays is the main reason they passed 38x. Car is pretty good at controlling the ball, plays slow. Basically the opposite of SF.

It’s the highest total of the week, not sure where I land on this game. Just saying, what I told you I thought they would do last week and they did is exactly what they are going to try to do every week and that’s not good for ceilings. Public perception is higher than it should be on their O. Koetter needs to save his job and the air raid wasn’t helping him, it was helping us.

Understandable. I just think Carolina has a lead in this game and if that happens Koetter isn’t going to really have a choice but to throw. I don’t like Carolinas ball control though. You’re right there

Do you think James Bradberry continues to shadow and lock down Mike Evans? He’s been pretty good this season vs #1’s and has only allowed one 100 yard game. Not seeing Evans in a blow up spot here and maybe that helps narrow down where to go with TB

Looking at those last 5 games…..

57 – Carolina home vs Baltimore who was still considered to be a pace up team, CAR scores 36 of that 57, Snead was the best WR with 54 yards
70 – CAR home vs Tampa, obey pace up game as CAR scores 42, Humphries coming out party, Evans shut down
73 – Thrashed on the road vs PIT – obvious pay up for Big Ben at home on Thursday slate week, Bradberry gave up 90+/1 TD
39 – Away vs DET on Thanksgiving, Golladay 114 and a TD (mainly covered by Bradberry)
57 – Last week home vs SEA toughest team they played other than PIT and lost at home scoring 27

I’m really trying to get a handle on this game. We know TB def is bad all around so Cam, Mccaffery, Olsen, Moore all in play. But you have Bradberry giving up two tough games last 3 . I don’t know who he covered vs SEA but Lockett and Moore both had big scores. I still think I’d shy away from Evans personally for his price ESPECIALLY if we think TB playing a bit conservative in a favorable game script. Targeting the slot vs CAR is an option but I don’t expect Humphries to have the same blow up game. Maybe Brate after a chalk week last week? Maybe Godwin does his best Humphries impression? I’m sort of liking Godwin here but its more gut than anything. CAR/TB game stack with Cam/Mccaf or Cam/Olsen and run it back with Brate and/or Godwin

I think he definitely limits Evans, yes. I like Humphries again. He has the best matchup again like he did when they played a few weeks ago. Jameis is more of a TE/Slot QB where as Fitz is a outside receiver type QB. Humphries is too cheap so he will probably gather some ownership but I still like him

Brate should be in play. Carolina has been bad defending the TE spot.

Every single one of IND TE is IR or Q except Ebron unless the promote an practice squad player during the week

For my Milly entry pivoting off ebron to gronk. Gronk has a 7-100-2 coming and everyone will say “how did I not play gronk at 5k”.

Also McCoy at 4900 has 6x upside.

Ignoring the Rams game as it seems priced appropriately is a whole lot of leverage.

Who sees Slay this weekend? Cooks or Woods?

I am actually gonna play a single LU in $100 gpp. This is first time in weeks when art of gpp LU making will carry an edge over casual pops and moms and grandpas throwing a random bingo LU with 5 players from same team or so called max entering pros.

Don’t quote me on this but if I had to guess I’d say Cooks sees him the most as I believe Woods has been in the slot more since Kupp got injured

Early week thoughts
Gurley seems like the only Ram I wanna play.
Mahomes and Hunt stack(probably very popular)
Atlanta game could be a sneaky shootout. 1 point line with 48 O/U
I want to play Derrick Henry against the Jets. Big home favorite, Jets gave Jordan Howard his best game of the year. This is on FD
Not afraid to go back to Humphries and DJ Moore. Or even the Seattle Moore

Disclosure “I’m a Vikings fan and this take might be jaded”.

Gronk may go off but it will likely have to be garbage time similar to how Ertz got his 10 catches for 111 yards and a TD (I think 9 of Ertz’s catches were when down by 2 scores). The Vikings LB’s and Safeties can cover pretty good.

Of course now Gronk is guaranteed to smash (it’s a gift I have).

100% agree. I will say I’m the opposite of mike though and I play 10+ QBs on a little over 20 lineups each main slate. I map out all my stacks with them and leave some QBs naked when I’m not sure where the ball is going. Doing this leaves some dead lineups and is probably not the best strategy of all, I just have serious FOMO with QBs I guess. I usually play my “top” guys in like 2-5 lineups depending on the week. After that I include my “top” guys in tiers to offset some and with a “core” this has proved profitable.

Yeldon, Hyde or avoid both due to split in carries?

Why are we complaining about QB prices still? To me, it just helps us figure out where to go with lineups. We know where the casuals will go. We know top RB’s have been money, packed with a cheap QB stacks, value WR’s, overpriced TE’s. We know week to week what a casual player will do. This pricing makes it easier to figure out how to leverage. I never understood the pricing complaints. Pricing now seems fairly tight across the board outside of QB’s last couple of weeks. Value plays when pricing comes out aren’t as obvious early in week. This is an advantage. Don’t be sooo angry about pricing you cant sleep at night, use it to your advantage.

With that said, like most I assume, when pricing comes out I make 2-3 lineups with no research, just based off knowledge and gut. Then I come here, read some articles, listen to a few podcasts and get a sense where everyone is at. pretty basic. And every week my early teams look like what every “expert” is touting and what we can assume every Casual will be incorporating in their lineups. mainly thanks to cheap QB pricing :). Our eyes all follow the pricing the same. But when you can take a step back and strategize a bit for better leverage plays everything opens up.

This week its obvious everyone will be on Hunt. KC on the road, Andy Reid bye week thing, OAK on paper is awful , but its still the NFL. I’m not 100% off Hunt but I’m thinking all I’ll go under owned and flip to Watkins with Kelce and Hill priced way up. Watkins should be low owned with the Q tag and the other value 5k plays around him. We know what everyone is thinking so we use that knowledge to find a leverage play off Hunt. Enjoy the week!