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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/6
    8:20 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 4.5 ) at Tennessee ( -4.5 ) —- T: 38

    Sunday, 12/9
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 0 ) at Buffalo ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6 ) at Green Bay ( -6 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 1.5 ) at Washington ( -1.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( (Pick) ) at Cleveland ( (Pick) ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: 53
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -8 ) at Tampa Bay ( 8 ) —- T: 58
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -8 ) at Miami ( 8 ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( -5.5 ) at San Francisco ( 5.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( -2.5 ) at Arizona ( 2.5 ) —- T: 40.5
    4:25 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -11.5 ) at Oakland ( 11.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    4:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4 ) at Dallas ( -4 ) —- T: 41.5
    8:20 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 12/10
    8:15 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Seattle ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Supanice

    After having the rest of my account on the line after 4 straight losing weeks, have now crushed 2 in a row.

    Old process was mainly consider individual matchups and most reasonable path to a win. This fails because coaches and QBs don’t give a shit about good matchups. Odell vs eagles a prime example. I played him because it was obvious and didn’t want a high owned guy going off.

    New process is ask what does the team want to do, and strongly defer to home or dome teams in warmer weather, then check prices.

    DK really adjusts for matchups now, which is fine, but coaches don’t care. They will throw 40 times against the worst run defense, and if you realize that you can get guys on huge discounts while taking a stand against chalk.

  • Supanice

    A quick example of my new thinking at first glance would be Steelers and Dolphins this week.

    Dolphins entire game plan SHOULD be screens and passes to Drake vs the pats. It wont, coaches don’t care. If Amendola is out, whoever isn’t shadowed by Gilmore, either Parker/Stills, is going to hit 4x.

    Steelers should run the ball 30 times and take the win. They wont. A Steelers pass catcher is going to hit 5x and be on a Milly winner.

    David Johnson should get 10 targets. He won’t.

    You have to think like a coach/oc and NOT like someone trying to win a football game.

  • lukemiller42

    seems like a classic ty Hilton 200 yd game incoming. ian Thomas tight end chalk but im just not going to play an expensive tight end, I need savings for all the rb matchups. again it just blows my mind every time but it seems like all the good rbs have great matchups.

    jones vs Atlanta, we know Atlanta vs pass catching backs is a disaster, he’s at home post McCarthy era
    I think this is a huge saquon game, hes priced up there and I have 0 faith in Washington, I think theyre done. they held zeke to 33 yds first time out, saquon 38…zeke 2nd time out had 121…saquon is crazy good
    speaking of zeke philly is getting wrecked by rbs and especially pass catching ones, theyre like 4th in the nfl in passes given up to rbs and its zeke at home in a must win
    kamara vs tampa bay is always a lock
    this is absolutely the time you play spencer ware
    chris Thompson may be the only offense vs giants, cohen just had like 12/154 and theyre very similar size and style
    mccaffrey is the best rb in football the last 5 weeks and gets a pretty easy matchup in a must win
    Oakland is the worst run defense and as mike42 said, tomlin when hes pressured will go back to the basics: pound the ball. if connor is healthy I don’t really know how you don’t expect 25 touches

    how can you even approach rb this week, theres more like Lindsay, that Jackson guy for the chargers, even james white…how are you guys looking at this?

  • Messiah717

    Barkely, CMC and Lindsay look great to me. Jackson is doing some nice things but that’s still a timeshare situation with Eckler. Conner remains to be seen as he got banged up last night. Thompson is someone to keep an eye on tonight to see how he looks after missing several weeks. Cohen just had an out of his mind type second half yesterday. Landon Collins usually isn’t that lost out there on defense.

  • thefantasyman

    The question is how to pivot and differentiate. First glance at DK last night and I immediately locked into 3 RB’s for GPP without even thinking about it…. namely Zeke, Saquon and Kamara, then built around from there. Feels like this is where everyone will go which isn’t rocket science. Hard to go value RB’s and differentiate when the top guys are hitting every week .

    Kind of liking Ingram as a pivot off Kamara for savings and still getting 2-3 receptions possibly

  • Supanice

    Luck at 5900 vs a team he already put up 39 against.

    Stop trying to get cute at rb and just jam em in.

  • KindGuy

    Whoever starts at RB for PIT is in a smash spot.

  • KindGuy

    Is New Orleans going to suck on the road again? TB did pretty well at home vs CAR.

  • Messiah717

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    Whoever starts at RB for PIT is in a smash spot.

    That’s what we just said this past week.

  • KindGuy

    Atlanta @ Green Bay should be fun. Two very dissapointing teams with huge upside for a shootout.

  • KindGuy

    @Messiah717 said...

    That’s what we just said this past week.

    .

  • Supanice

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    Atlanta @ Green Bay should be fun. Two very dissapointing teams with huge upside for a shootout.

    I don’t think in a billion years that Matt dome babby Ryan playing on the road outdoors in 20 degree weather will be a shootout.

  • squidkill

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    Atlanta @ Green Bay should be fun. Two very dissapointing teams with huge upside for a shootout.

    Have You watched these two bum teams? No fun here at all.

  • P0key

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    Atlanta @ Green Bay should be fun. Two very dissapointing teams with huge upside for a shootout.

    I feel Rodgers is going to be showing off out there.. Just letting it fly..Falcons have reasons to do the same..Juilo can try to pad the stats

  • thefantasyman

    @Supanice said...

    Stop trying to get cute at rb and just jam em in.

    That sounds great but thats what everyone is doing… aren’t we trying to win a million? Gotta differ somewhere. 1st place this past week didn’t jam em in. I respect that strategy for sure just saying this week winner got real cute with Zay Jones and a 7.9 from Corderelle Patterson. Someone in that top group of RBs is gonna bust, probably more than 1. And by bust I mean at least less than 20 pts

  • thefantasyman

    @Supanice said...

    I don’t think in a billion years that Matt dome babby Ryan playing on the road outdoors in 20 degree weather will be a shootout.

    Now this I agree with. Ryan on the road for one, in GB for another, cold AF. Plus the bad taste Julio just left everyone who disobeyed the 1st tag on DK whahaha I did it, couldn’t resist either. That was box score hunting at its finest. I’d rather go back to Aaron Jones this week who is still a value with new coach hopefully realizing to give this guy the ball a few more times a game and then move on to other games

  • joephoto

    Finally had a decent week. Been a while. Thank you Keenan Allen.
    Played a lot of low stakes but won some cash plus 37 tickets- 14 of them Milly tix. I’ll play 10 of them this Sunday. Go Pats !

  • squidkill

    @thefantasyman said...

    That sounds great but thats what everyone is doing… aren’t we trying to win a million? Gotta differ somewhere. 1st place this past week didn’t jam em in. I respect that strategy for sure just saying this week winner got real cute with Zay Jones and a 7.9 from Corderelle Patterson. Someone in that top group of RBs is gonna bust, probably more than 1. And by bust I mean at least less than 20 pts

    Uh no. Haven’t played the milky maker in 3 years. Might as well use a match

  • GTRandy27

    Anyone else wishing Conner sits out one week so we have value with Samuels.

  • KindGuy

    .

  • GTRandy27

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    I can tell this is going to be a really high scoring week. So many stud WRs. I think this may finally be the week where playing 4 expensive WRs is the winning play. Adams, AB, Nuk, OBJ, JuJu are my favorites.

    I can see IND/HOU shooting out, NUK with Hilton or Ebron may be the play, or both and go Luck.

  • keephustlincuz

    @ContrarianThinker said...

    I can tell this is going to be a really high scoring week. So many stud WRs. I think this may finally be the week where playing 4 expensive WRs is the winning play. Adams, AB, Nuk, OBJ, JuJu are my favorites.

    Or it could be like most weeks this year where you pay up for 3 RBS take a cheap qb and 3 low mid tier wrs.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    What do we know about new packers coach? If Aaron Jones is getting 30 touches count me in.

  • Messiah717

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    What do we know about new packers coach? If Aaron Jones is getting 30 touches count me in.

    Joe Philbin used to coach the Dolphins. How would you ever know? They’re a lost team in a lost season.

  • KindGuy

    .

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