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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/10
    8:20 PM EST : New England ( 6 ) at LA Rams ( -6 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, 12/13
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -6.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 4 ) at Carolina ( -4 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -1.5 ) at Chicago ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( -3.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 3.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at NY Giants ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -7 ) at Jacksonville ( 7 ) —- T: 53
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -7.5 ) at Miami ( 7.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -2.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 2.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 13.5 ) at Seattle ( -13.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( -8.5 ) at Detroit ( 8.5 ) —- T: 54.5
    4:25 PM EST : Washington ( 4.5 ) at San Francisco ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( -2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( -7 ) at Philadelphia ( 7 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -2 ) at Buffalo ( 2 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 12/14
    8:15 PM EST : Baltimore ( -1 ) at Cleveland ( 1 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • squidkill

    @DrLost said...

    Anyone else liking the pivot off Davante Adams to Dalvin Cook? 25+ touches plus a few receptions 🧏🏻‍♂️🤫

    That’s not a pivot , The pivot off Adams is AJones

  • squidkill

    @realphipps said...

    Kamara gonna have low ownership?

    Very low

  • Steverino01

    @DrLost said...

    Anyone else liking the pivot off Davante Adams to Dalvin Cook? 25+ touches plus a few receptions 🧏🏻‍♂️🤫

    Cook against TB rush defense?

  • Lbb11

    @Steverino01 said...

    Cook against TB rush defense?

    Yeah Jefferson is 6 percentS. This is an easy one.

  • BIF

    I expect them to get Carson going this week; they don’t need to throw all game and win 42-0. They just need to win the game.

  • BIF

    @kps3205s said...

    Wesley Walker would like a word

    Walker was a beast – quick and took it to the house often. 71 TDs on just 438 receptions !! That’s an insane ratio especially for a guy who was/is legally blind in one eye !!

    For comparison, Davante Adams who seems to score at a crazy clip has 57 TDs on 515 catches this far in his career.

  • DrLost

    I guess I was considering Cook more of a pivot from Adams based on DK salaries, but I see where you’re coming from

    Cook gets more touches than Adams (obviously) but the road’s much tougher in a must win game

  • mike42

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Glennon… im prob pairing his TE. Glennon targeted his TE’s 13 times last week….

    Eifert is $3100 has back to back games in double digits… if he does not play then O’Shaughnessy is $2500 and actually saw 6 targets last week as well.

    https://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/28877/mike-glennon-opens-up-middle-of-the-field-for-jaguars-offense

    Glennon: “Really dating back to camp, he was kind of my guy in training camp, and he’s stepped up and has made a lot of big plays,

    It’s Glennon talking about C. Johnson, AKA, the guy that has easily led the Jags WR’s in DK points since Glennon has been the starter. People are going to get too cute with the Jags. Borders, who has a 73 coverage grade with PFF and is out this week for TEN is going to be replaced by a kid with a 33 coverage grade (lots of snaps too). The TEN corners have decent coverage grades, it’s the lack of a pass rush that I think kills them but Borders replacement just sucks. With King in the slot, it’s wither Johnson or Chark on the outside that you want to target but given ownership and projected game script, sub 1% C. Johnson is the play for large GPP’s for sure.

    Sorry, I have not been posting but I’ve been on fire and I didn’t want to gooch it. I’m going to lay it on thick later this week and if I run cold, I’m done with you guys and I’m going to start a thread with Captain Zero that begins on Fridays for WINNERs ONLY.

  • mike42

    @Skee said...

    I have to say, from my time around Philly, it is far more likely that a Taysom Hill has a career game than putting up a dud. They once lost to Joe Montana only to find out it was Joe Webb

    I think this is a bad matchup for T. Hill to have a good real life game. Philly really strong up front, gets pressure and stops the run. It’s entirely possible that we are putting too much weight in Taysoms 2 games Vs the same team’s bottom 5 pass D.

  • mike42

    @superjon said...

    Sure, and the same was said about Trubisky last week.

    DET’s bottom 3 run D was playing without both it’s starting DT’s last week which led to a Bears team that had 2 rushing TD’s on the ENTIRE year to rush for 3 TD’s. Det’s run D was like the Jets pass D AFTER it lost all 3 of it’s CB’s. If I made 1 post last week it would have said just that and how Mongomery was good chalk and Trubisky was bad chalk for that exact reason.

    I always look up on injured players on PFF and see how important they are to a D or O-line, etc… Those 2 DT’s had started almost every game and logged heavy snaps and if their backups were any good, they would have played already given DET sucked Vs the run before they went out. The run D Houston will put on the field this week is better than the run D the Bears saw last week given it was quite possibly the worse run D any team has put on a field this year and I’m not sure most people realize that. It’s also why A. Jones is so intriguing this week if they both miss again (Hand is questionable). The difference is the GB O can get 500 yds of O and everybody can eat, the Bears O, not so much. This week is AROB week and Montgomery, who is apparently splitting carries, is bad chalk. Worse game script, more resistance and he only got 17 carries last week when the stars allighned so what do you think he gets this week?

  • mike42

    @Bnett2210 said...

    Yea I mentioned earlier about Vince out. The Avery Williamson trade is coming up big right now, I would say he’s better than Spillane anyways, but using Allen at the other MLB for Vince is big loss. I expect even more sub packages.

    The big loss will be Haden. I don’t think he’s going to play. So 3-4 weeks ago to now it’s a D without Bud, Spillane, Vince, Haden. Last week not having Nelson hurt but he will be back this week, but soon as Haden went out they had more success and completed the long pass to Sims shortly after he was out, and that play is what put them in FG range. As a Steelers fan, if we’re able to pull this W out with those injuries and 3 games in 12 days with no rushing attack, I would say it would be the most impressive W of the season we would have.

    BTW- SOrry I was too critical of your blog. Felt like a huge dick after the fact. I think it’s awesome you went out on a limb and did it, it takes courage and it’s not where you start, it’s where you end up. I’ve always thought of doing the same and never have so I’m officially the ass in this situation.

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    I think this is a bad matchup for T. Hill to have a good real life game. Philly really strong up front, gets pressure and stops the run. It’s entirely possible that we are putting too much weight in Taysoms 2 games Vs the same team’s bottom 5 pass D.

    Welcome back, Squid was about to put a search party out for you at the rest stops. HAHA!
    You been doing good with dfs or just betting? I was thinking Watson can have similar success to Stafford(maybe not the 400yds but 300 and a few tds) against the Bears and run it back with ARob.
    My off the board play is Edmonds. Drake dealing with a hip issue so maybe he plays but is limited. I’d almost rather he play because otherwise Edmonds may become chalk if he is out

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    Welcome back, Squid was about to put a search party out for you at the rest stops. HAHA!
    You been doing good with dfs or just betting? I was thinking Watson can have similar success to Stafford(maybe not the 400yds but 300 and a few tds) against the Bears and run it back with ARob.
    My off the board play is Edmonds. Drake dealing with a hip issue so maybe he plays but is limited. I’d almost rather he play because otherwise Edmonds may become chalk if he is out

    It’s with betting, mostly props, but I’ve been cashing all my DFS LU’s and I’m going to play more this week.

    Without Mack doing anything and Hicks playing on 1 leg, the whole Bears D falls apart. Roquan Smith can’t shed blocks, our other D-line guys are bottom 5 type guys, our DB’s are only good with pressure and Eddie Jackson (The Highest paid safety in the NFL) has not made a single play all year. People are going to put too much faith in what they saw earlier in the year and it’s possible they show up, but not likely or as likely as most will think. I did a lot of same game parlays with D. Watson over yds and rushing, plus a TD with AROB going over +a TD type mixtures. Atkins should be OK, as well as Coutee and/or Cooks.

    Last week Nagy went all in on “frigg’n this and frigg’n that, have pride, etc…. and it didn’t work. We not only lost to Detroit but we looked like Detroit in doing so. That’s like blowing the guy your GF left you for. Trust me, it sucks.

    Remember Mahommes being cocky for the only time in his career when he played the bears (and lit us up) on SNF? Watson remembers sitting by his mama on draft day and watching the Bears pass him up for Trubisky. He also remembers that the Pace didn’t think he was even worth taking out to dinner, which he did for Trubisky and Mahommes. It’s a curse thing. I don’t think it’s going to be possible for the Bears to beat either Mahommes or Watson for the next decade (or two). the funny thing is most Bears fans will be rooting for him.

    Houston 1 is my biggest bet so far this week, along with MIA +7-

  • superjon

    Found this interesting. On FD, the last 6 winning lineups have left a lot of money on the table

    8500
    8400
    8200
    7900
    9500
    5200

  • kps3205s

    @BIF said...

    Walker was a beast – quick and took it to the house often. 71 TDs on just 438 receptions !! That’s an insane ratio especially for a guy who was/is legally blind in one eye !!

    For comparison, Davante Adams who seems to score at a crazy clip has 57 TDs on 515 catches this far in his career.

    Loved watching him and Derrick Gaffney while growing up on LI and seeing them up close at Hofstra University during pre season.

    Never really compared Wesley to anybody but looking at this one, that is pretty amazing.

  • kps3205s

    @mike42 said...

    It’s Glennon talking about C. Johnson, AKA, the guy that has easily led the Jags WR’s in DK points since Glennon has been the starter.

    I don’t understand why they don’t use him even more at 6’6” vs all of these CB. Hoping he has a solid final 4 weeks. DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault and him is a solid WR corp but I feel they still need a true go to #1 WR.

  • ghost3490

    @mike42 said...

    DET’s bottom 3 run D was playing without both it’s starting DT’s last week which led to a Bears team that had 2 rushing TD’s on the ENTIRE year to rush for 3 TD’s. Det’s run D was like the Jets pass D AFTER it lost all 3 of it’s CB’s. If I made 1 post last week it would have said just that and how Mongomery was good chalk and Trubisky was bad chalk for that exact reason.

    I always look up on injured players on PFF and see how important they are to a D or O-line, etc… Those 2 DT’s had started almost every game and logged heavy snaps and if their backups were any good, they would have played already given DET sucked Vs the run before they went out. The run D Houston will put on the field this week is better than the run D the Bears saw last week given it was quite possibly the worse run D any team has put on a field this year and I’m not sure most people realize that. It’s also why A. Jones is so intriguing this week if they both miss again (Hand is questionable). The difference is the GB O can get 500 yds of O and everybody can eat, the Bears O, not so much. This week is AROB week and Montgomery, who is apparently splitting carries, is bad chalk. Worse game script, more resistance and he only got 17 carries last week when the stars allighned so what do you think he gets this week?

    LDT Nick Williams Out. LDE Hand Q. RDT Penisini Q. Most backups on IR or Q. This defensive line is decimated. Rodgers will have all day in pocket. Jones should have a really nice day.

  • mike42

    I subscribed to fantasypoints. It’s the site that does advanced matchups on RG and they are film guys/insiders. Here’s some quotes from Reich/OC talking about JT:

    Reich also acknowledged how a couple of his rookies — specifically RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman — are stepping up to help matters out with the offense.

    “A lot of these [rookies] have [strong] makeup, but Jonathan in particular – I really feel like these last two games for him, he’s just running very decisive, very aggressive, with a lot of confidence and I think he’s seeing it well. We just have to continue to build on that,” Reich said.

    OC Nick Sirianni also sang Taylor’s praises this week.

    “Jonathan has been a model citizen of getting better every day because he works. It’s not just because he is out there every day, it’s because he is out there and he’s working every day,” Sirianni told reporters. “He really is an explosive athlete. He’s fast, he’s big, he’s strong. We’re just looking for ways to get him touches.”

    Earlier in the week, Greg Cosell, who is sort of famous for his film watching, talked about how bug the holes were for the Jets RB’s when he watched the OAK game. I mean, Gore’s backups almost got 200 yds in that game on 35 carries. What’s crazier than that is when I went back and watched every run, you could see that a bunch of those runs would have went for much bigger plays or to the house if someone like JT was carrying the ball. Forget that the INDY line is much better too.
    32 ranked DVOA vs the run (OAK).

    Reich also talked about how he wished he ran the ball more in the first half last game before he watched the same tape I did with OAK’s swiss cheese run D. Long story short, I think he gets his 20 touches this week and he smashes on the back of a couple of long runs and/or TD’s. From what I saw, if JT was the Jets RB and got 22 touches last week vs that D in that game, he would have gotten 150-200 yds and 2 TD’s Oak run D is probably worse than Dets and that’s really saying something.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    That’s like blowing the guy your GF left you for.

    …..and not getting the DK Crowns you were promised 😂

  • mike42

    Like a month ago I suggested that the Jets might actually have a good run D and I was met with resistance. Since then, Ballage busted despite elite usage, then all the RB’s together did nothing despite ideal game script, and finally, Booker busted as huge chalk. All I’ve heard from the fake experts all week is Carson is a good play because he’s going to get used more and the Jets suck on D. Here’s another clip of news:

    One of the big issues is Wilson: Dugar wrote this week that he also needs to make better decisions, as he’s been uncharacteristically turnover-prone this year. It’s a great game to get him going — the Jets have been a pass-funnel defense all year, sporting FootballOutsiders #24 pass defense but #7 run defense by DVOA.

    And in the backfield, both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are off the injury report and will play. Could there be more of a split here than we’re used to?

    “We’re trying to not overload [Carson],” Carroll said, via Dugar. “We have a lot of games left, and we’re just trying to make sure that he can play and contribute, which is what he’s doing, and I thought they handled that pretty well. But, he’s not to the point where we can just let him stay out there and keep on going and let’s run him 25 or 30 times and see what happens.”

    Jets in a massive letdown spot and SEA in a massive bounce back spot but other than that, Carson is an awful play just like every RB that has played the Jets has been. Did you know that the last 14x a double digit fav lost outright and was favored by double digits the next time out, they covered. SEA should role but it’s going to be really hard for Carson to have anything resembling a ceiling game.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    …..and not getting the DK Crowns you were promised 😂

    Who do you like this week? CAR, HOUS, MIA, DAL (and over), Giants, TB (and at half), SEA and LAC. The first 3 are my major plays so far but I like your boys to come out strong this week and maybe even win easily.

  • squidkill

    Exactly!!!!!! LOL

  • squidkill

    Happy Holidays Michael

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Who do you like this week? CAR, HOUS, MIA, DAL (and over), Giants, TB (and at half), SEA and LAC. The first 3 are my major plays so far but I like your boys to come out strong this week and maybe even win easily.

    Indy, TB, Hous are my 3 favorite – careful on Bucs 1st H as we have been notorious slow starters but maybe you are right and they come out more prepared off the bye week

    Parlay: Bucs -6.5, Bucs over 52.5
    Teased: Caro +3.5 to KC -0.5

    Leaning to Chargers as well plus think Eagles may keep it close vs NO; Seattle interests me as well – have not done anything on those

  • squidkill

    Seattle Russ Double Stack- Bring it back with Berrios- (if crowder is OUT) print

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