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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/13
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3 ) at Kansas City ( -3 ) —- T: 56

    Saturday, 12/15
    4:30 PM EST : Houston ( -6.5 ) at NY Jets ( 6.5 ) —- T: 42
    8:20 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at Denver ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 12/16
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 36
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 2.5 ) at NY Giants ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 8 ) at Minnesota ( -8 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 8.5 ) at Atlanta ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Chicago ( -4 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4.5 ) at San Francisco ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 8.5 ) at LA Rams ( -8.5 ) —- T: 52

    Monday, 12/17
    8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    I don’t play cash but for gpp I haven’t played him once this year. YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER WHO IS THROWING THE BALL TO HIM!!!

    YES. ALSO, WHO’s COVERING HIM. How they cover him. His talent. You factor them all in. I didn’t play him a lot and I didn’t play cash this week and the only 2x I rostered him was the last weeks. Last week mostly in game stacks because I really liked Mullen’s. It’s just that people are acting like it was all foreseeable or he didn’t check a lot of boxes.

    Btw- If who was throwing him the ball was the issue than 2 Den WR’s wouldn’t have smashed their salaries. If SF rolled coverage over to him that helps explain a lot of things but my process didn’t get me there and I don’t feel like I missed it. I don’t think you could have projected it is my main point. Next is a different story, Ward plays, Sutton has a bad matchup.

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    YES. ALSO, WHO’s COVERING HIM. How they cover him. His talent. You factor them all in. I didn’t play him a lot and I didn’t play cash this week and the only 2x I rostered him was the last weeks. Last week mostly in game stacks because I really liked Mullen’s. It’s just that people are acting like it was all foreseeable or he didn’t check a lot of boxes.

    Btw- If who was throwing him the ball was the issue than 2 Den WR’s wouldn’t have smashed their salaries. If SF rolled coverage over to him that helps explain a lot of things but my process didn’t get me there and I don’t feel like I missed it. I don’t think you could have projected it is my main point. Next is a different story, Ward plays, Sutton has a bad matchup.

    I guess for me it’s just his situation in DFS. He’s in a below average offense. He has a below average QB throwing him the ball. He’s been chalk. He’s now the number 1 receiver which I don’t think he’s really ready for. There’s not really a good receiver or TE to take the focus off of him. In my opinion he’s not a very balanced receiver. And there has just been better plays around his price as well as below his price. Don’t get me wrong I think he has a bright future and I think he even could have had a good season if he was on a different team, but given the situation and everything I’ve stated above along with the fact that he’s been high owned I just think there’s been a lot better plays than him. Fading him to this point would have worked out more often than not

  • Supershorty

    I don’t know how I feel bout this slate. I usually I can’t decide between all the amazing plays, this week I may be struggling to find ones I am comfortable with. First glance I like Josh Allen matchup, Pittsburgh if Ben plays, and Baltimore. All these backup qbs scare me, are any of them serviceable?

  • mtdurham

    You have to be KIDDING me not kicking the FG there

  • mike42

    I got to see the weather and GB O-line injuries, but don’t write off GB WR’s just yet. Cobb destroys us ALL the time and our all pro caliber slot guy looks out. AR always plays us well too and Adams is matchup proof. Cobb is the one I’ll be looking to roster most but this is a letdown spot and I’m guessing AR looks like AR the rest of the year and nobody will be playing anyone @ Chicago after SNF.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @mike42 said...

    I got to see the weather and GB O-line injuries, but don’t write off GB WR’s just yet. Cobb destroys us ALL the time and our all pro caliber slot guy looks out. AR always plays us well too and Adams is matchup proof. Cobb is the one I’ll be looking to roster most but this is a letdown spot and I’m guessing AR looks like AR the rest of the year and nobody will be playing anyone @ Chicago after SNF.

    Mike, I never do this but I find myself looking at J. Howard for some reason. He didn’t do too horribly vs packers the first time, and his carries have been trending upwards past few weeks. What do you think about him? Granted Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the first encounter for a while which created a gamescript where they could pound Howard for a while. If Rodgers torches the bears then trubisky would have to answer and abandon the run game.

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    I guess for me it’s just his situation in DFS. He’s in a below average offense. He has a below average QB throwing him the ball. He’s been chalk. He’s now the number 1 receiver which I don’t think he’s really ready for. There’s not really a good receiver or TE to take the focus off of him. In my opinion he’s not a very balanced receiver. And there has just been better plays around his price as well as below his price. Don’t get me wrong I think he has a bright future and I think he even could have had a good season if he was on a different team, but given the situation and everything I’ve stated above along with the fact that he’s been high owned I just think there’s been a lot better plays than him. Fading him to this point would have worked out more often than not

    The ONLY thing that bugs me is when people list reasons why after the fact. I list reasons before the game. You said you were off him before the game but didn’t write a page on why or even explain it in the least and now you, and others, are listing all the things that EVERYONE knows at least for now. It’s pointless after the fact, I saw the game too. I didn’t just say I liked Cooper last Saturday. I said he was still underpriced for his role, Philly was a good matchup and they struggle with Amari types. You said I haven’t played Sutton yet and I’m not going to. Than today you write a page about stuff that everyone knows to be true after the fact. I’ve heard you write 5 posts on why you like a play before and I process those reasons into my decision making. After the fact, idc what anyone thinks is obvious because it obviously is or it wouldn’t have happened.

  • mike42

    Now I’m going to state the obvious after the fact. Last week was an awful week for game stacking. It was like 1-3 plays from any game and that’s it. The Dal trio was the best but nobody really on the come back. Not sure if it’s a trend or anomaly given this year has been personified by game stacks. Something to think about in a week with no standout games.

  • 33BeRad

    Miami in a huge let down spot after their miracle win against the Pats. Now travel to Minn who has looked bad offensively 2 games in a row. Not sure if I like Cook or the passing game.
    Could be a let down spot for Dallas, 2 huge wins in a row, plus this one went to OT. Like Luck/Hilton/Ebron
    Waiting to see news on Big Ben
    AR always plays good vs Bears, could be the week to go back to Trubisky after how terrible he looked. Let down spot for Bears but also a redemption spot for them after they let the Pack come back week 1. Think this will turn into a lot of fantasy points
    Baltimore should win, no clue who will score but they will score. Tampa back on the road after 2 home games looking better on defense.
    And I like Russ against SF terrible pass def.
    Early week notes

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    The ONLY thing that bugs me is when people list reasons why after the fact. I list reasons before the game. You said you were off him before the game but didn’t write a page on why or even explain it in the least and now you, and others, are listing all the things that EVERYONE knows at least for now. It’s pointless after the fact, I saw the game too. I didn’t just say I liked Cooper last Saturday. I said he was still underpriced for his role, Philly was a good matchup and they struggle with Amari types. You said I haven’t played Sutton yet and I’m not going to. Than today you write a page about stuff that everyone knows to be true after the fact. I’ve heard you write 5 posts on why you like a play before and I process those reasons into my decision making. After the fact, idc what anyone thinks is obvious because it obviously is or it wouldn’t have happened.

    I didn’t know I had to explain every single play I do or don’t like. Last week everybody was talking about Sutton and I simply stated that I haven’t played him and I wasn’t planning to start this week. Again I didn’t know that every play or fade had to be explained. And the reasons posted above weren’t all after the fact reasons. Most of the reasons I listed weren’t reasons that I didn’t like him in DFS LAST WEEK, they were reasons I haven’t liked him in DFS ALL YEAR. No hard feelings man

  • ASitar

    What a crazy last 2 minutes I guess. I was going to bed winning $30 across 8 LUs and woke up to $300. 141st in my top LU just 2 points back from the leader. Hopefully I can keep this going through Thursday which will be a mess with injuries

  • winnerchickendinner

    Back to the well with jaylen Samuels if Conner is out and Wilson jr .

  • AVivier

    Gonna be a chore making multiple lineups for Saturdays slate. Guys like Rashard Higgins, Royce Freeman and Ryan Griffin will all be in play.

  • Brandon6385

    Is season long championship advice allowed?..

    Big Ben or Winston?.. Opponent has Conner and AB, so thinking of using AB as a blocker?… Am I looking to deep into this?

  • deeebo

    I hate weeks like these because theres primetime games that no one discusses on here because they’re not on the main slate. So just to get this out of the way – who do you guys think i should definitely lock in from the NO/Car game and lar/phi game? like must plays. Im thinking Gurley against our trash defense? not sure who to go to in the NO/CAR game? if there are any major locks

  • Soma919

    @Brian7479 said...

    So I won some Milly tickets. You can use them whenever you want on DK right? My question is which week would you guys recommend using them. Week 17 all 32 teams are on the main slate. There could be some teams resting players then and could be more backups playing with teams that are in the playoffs as well as teams that aren’t. Should I try to win more tickets and use them week 17 or should I use them week 15 or 16 taking all things into consideration? And why? Thanks guys

    Why not use them this week? Like Mike said, its a condensed slate, no huge totals with obvious spots to attack. Makes people who take a deeper dive into the plays have that much more of an edge. Sure week 17 will have all the teams on the Main Slate but is that a good thing considering the uncertainty around teams resting players? I like the edge to be had this week vs. the big slate uncertainty of week 17

  • miggs6876

    @squidkill said...

    7-1 yesterday. Hope u all cashed in on all those home dogs yesterday. TB cost me a from having a good week to a smash week. They blew the lead and the cover What a joke.

    Who do you like this week? I have to pick for teams vs the spread.

  • Soma919

    @deeebo said...

    I hate weeks like these because theres primetime games that no one discusses on here because they’re not on the main slate. So just to get this out of the way – who do you guys think i should definitely lock in from the NO/Car game and lar/phi game? like must plays. Im thinking Gurley against our trash defense? not sure who to go to in the NO/CAR game? if there are any major locks

    Deeeeeeboooooooo, play all the Rams you possibly can. I honestly don’t see how the Eagles slow them down at all. Goff, Gurley, Woods/Cooks, CMC, cant go wrong my friend.

  • Jrock821

    @mtdurham said...

    One mistake I see people making far too often in NFL DFS is at WR….

    Courtland Sutton was the perfect example of this…. Sutton is an alright WR… he’s got potential to be a good one but he’s not really there yet….

    Now Emmanuel Sanders goes down last week which reduces the value of Sutton as now he’s the WR facing more defensive attention..whether that be better corners, safety help, etc I dont know I didnt watch the game… but we know from watching the NFL the last 20 years and playing fantasy football this is definitely not a spot you want to be in the habit of targeting..

    Even if his ownership were the same as normal, we’d generally want to avoid him because the extra target or two he MAY receive is worth far less than the chance he benefits from a busted coverage, inferior defender, lack of safety help over the top, etc as a #2 or #3 WR where the defensive attention is more aligned with his current skill-set and experience level.

    So once we see people gravitating towards Sutton in droves because he’s the “#1 WR” he should be an easy fade without a 2nd thought. The elevated ownership carries from a bad play to a truly terrible play.

    Sutton isn’t a #1 WR. He’s a #1 WR in name only. If anything the first thing you should think is “wow, this passing game is going to be trash without Sanders, let’s just avoid this team altogether this week”

    It’s not just injuries where we see this occur. How many times have we seen a WR change teams in the off-season to go from a #2 to a #1 with his new team, only to watch him fail miserably as a #1 option?

    It’s a very common mistake and it’s extremely easily avoidable if you think it through.

    Yes this. WR absolutely kills me week in and week out. It is easily the highest bust rate and there are so many variables that have to hit ( Passrush , OL protection , game script, DEF scheme, Weather ! ). I have had really good luck with DEF , QB and to a lesser extent TE. It seems I’m always on the wrong side of K. Allen, A. Cooper, JuJu
    and cheap chalk like Pettis, Lockett , Stills etc. That position more than any other gets me TILTED off the charts !

  • Soma919

    @Brandon6385 said...

    Is season long championship advice allowed?..

    Big Ben or Winston?.. Opponent has Conner and AB, so thinking of using AB as a blocker?… Am I looking to deep into this?

    If Big Ben is healthy and will play I don’t think its a question, play Big Ben.

  • Soma919

    @Jrock821 said...

    Yes this. WR absolutely kills me week in and week out. It is easily the highest bust rate and there are so many variables that have to hit ( Passrush , OL protection , game script, DEF scheme, Weather ! ). I have had really good luck with DEF , QB and to a lesser extent TE. It seems I’m always on the wrong side of K. Allen, A. Cooper, JuJu
    and cheap chalk like Pettis, Lockett , Stills etc. That position more than any other gets me TILTED off the charts !

    Alright, lets talk favorite cheap wideouts, DK GPPs.

    Seth Roberts – Call me crazy but I like this game to go over and Seth is getting consistent looks. Cin D is terrible, I’m looking at a Carr, Roberts, Cook stack. Bring it back with Boyd who still has the talent and will go over looked.

    Taywan Taylor – Another player I think will go over looked. Big play threat, getting the looks, good chance Tenn see themselves playing catch up here.

  • odanny

    @Brian7479 said...

    I didn’t know I had to explain every single play I do or don’t like. Last week everybody was talking about Sutton and I simply stated that I haven’t played him and I wasn’t planning to start this week. Again I didn’t know that every play or fade had to be explained. And the reasons posted above weren’t all after the fact reasons. Most of the reasons I listed weren’t reasons that I didn’t like him in DFS LAST WEEK, they were reasons I haven’t liked him in DFS ALL YEAR. No hard feelings man

    I did a hard pass on Sutton last week, I’d really only consider him at home, anyway, and only if he was a last choice option. I think I used him once this season and I knew it was a reach. He has nothing on stat sheet that makes me like him.

  • Logan7777

    @ASitar said...

    What a crazy last 2 minutes I guess. I was going to bed winning $30 across 8 LUs and woke up to $300. 141st in my top LU just 2 points back from the leader. Hopefully I can keep this going through Thursday which will be a mess with injuries

    How much Moore did you have? I watched little of the game but he had 5 targets for zip, nil, no catches. He’s now been a bust 2 weeks in a row.

  • AVivier

    Sutton had 6 targets, 1 carry and missed a dozen or more snaps from injury. It is a high variance game, he was a fine play that didn’t work. I think if you’re playing the Saturday slate you’re going to want to go right back to him. Not exactly a great match-up, but with very little price difference between him Hamilton and Tim Patrick, he’s still the most likely of them to hit.

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    I didn’t know I had to explain every single play I do or don’t like. Last week everybody was talking about Sutton and I simply stated that I haven’t played him and I wasn’t planning to start this week. Again I didn’t know that every play or fade had to be explained. And the reasons posted above weren’t all after the fact reasons. Most of the reasons I listed weren’t reasons that I didn’t like him in DFS LAST WEEK, they were reasons I haven’t liked him in DFS ALL YEAR. No hard feelings man

    I knew the good and bad of Sutton before the game. You take the 3 receiving lines of Den WR’s from the SF game and 2 were good, the odds of Sutton being the bad one out of those 3 is low; it was an outlier in that setup with no shutdown shadowing corner. If anyone knew 2/3’s of the Den WR’s were going to post good numbers and you didn’t who than Sutton would have been 80% owned and deservingly so.

    I didn’t even have a lot, Cooper was my biggest play, I just had SF jumping ahead in this game with passing since den’s secondary was so depleted which I thought would lead to more PA’s by Den and more opportunities for Den WR’s. I should have mixed in other Denver guys for sure just because you always should. Let’s move on, no biggie.

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