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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/13
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3 ) at Kansas City ( -3 ) —- T: 56

    Saturday, 12/15
    4:30 PM EST : Houston ( -6.5 ) at NY Jets ( 6.5 ) —- T: 42
    8:20 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at Denver ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 12/16
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 36
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 2.5 ) at NY Giants ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 8 ) at Minnesota ( -8 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 8.5 ) at Atlanta ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Chicago ( -4 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4.5 ) at San Francisco ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 8.5 ) at LA Rams ( -8.5 ) —- T: 52

    Monday, 12/17
    8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • squidkill

    Interesting free overlay ay yahoo this week. Big promotion

  • Brian7479

    What’s your guys take on the Redskins run D currently? Seems like they’ve been falling off a bit lately

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    But why are people acting like you have to have a shutdown corner on Courtland Sutton? People are acting like he’s a top receiver. If you liked him in cash okay that’s one thing. But gpp at high expected ownership I simply disagree with. If teams didn’t need a shutdown corner to defend him when Sanders was out there why would they need one with Sanders gone?

    We can move on now

    I didn’t even read your post so this can stop. I thought both teams would pass a lot given how beat up Den’s secondary was and how bad SF’s is. I rostered Mullen’s with the top guy on each team, Sutton and Kittle. Faded the rb’s pretty much all the way. I mixed around them a bit but nobody but kittle smashed on SF and all the WR’s sans Sutton put up usable scores. I don’t care if someone thinks stacking this game around the passing game without the main guys being in your core was the way to go because it wasn’t “obvious” that only Kittle was worth playing on SF and everyone but Sutton was worth playing on Den. It was random on both ends and potentially injury related with Sutton. I accurately projected the game script and game plans and the manner in which the stats were distributed was somewhere between random and an outlier. It’s not an IMO as much as it’s a fact. Sutton being a distant third amongst Den WR’s and Kittle comprising 2/3’s of SF’s rec yds were both outlier type events. 1 in 10 shots at best.

  • TopDawgs07

    Who is everyone targeting are QB this week? Nothing is jumping off the page at me.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    Who is everyone targeting are QB this week? Nothing is jumping off the page at me.

    Pretty limiting this week. I like burgers in a must win, and one of the qb’s in either packers or colts game.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    Jaguars and Texans Dst look like the highest upsides by far to me. Hawks have been great recently, but Mullens threw for over 400 yards vs them and are at home this time, my expectations are tempered. Bears dst good for some sacks, but Rodgers doesn’t turn over the ball and Packers may win for all I know.

  • Brian7479

    @mike42 said...

    I didn’t even read your post so this can stop. I thought both teams would pass a lot given how beat up Den’s secondary was and how bad SF’s is. I rostered Mullen’s with the top guy on each team, Sutton and Kittle. Faded the rb’s pretty much all the way. I mixed around them a bit but nobody but kittle smashed on SF and all the WR’s sans Sutton put up usable scores. I don’t care if someone thinks stacking this game around the passing game without the main guys being in your core was the way to go because it wasn’t “obvious” that only Kittle was worth playing on SF and everyone but Sutton was worth playing on Den. It was random on both ends and potentially injury related with Sutton. I accurately projected the game script and game plans and the manner in which the stats were distributed was somewhere between random and an outlier. It’s not an IMO as much as it’s a fact. Sutton being a distant third amongst Den WR’s and Kittle comprising 2/3’s of SF’s rec yds were both outlier type events. 1 in 10 shots at best.

    It’s good to disagree sometimes man. Lets move on to this week. What’s your take on the Redskins rush D at this point?

  • Trappist1

    @squidkill said...

    Interesting free overlay ay yahoo this week. Big promotion

    Best DFS platform with innovative features and fair play with 10 max entry limit across all contests. They have it spot-on and if one can overlook lottery style prizes on other platforms with eye gouging rake then Yahoo is the place to be. It is an excellent promotion and also pointing how outrageous the rake has got in the other platforms.

  • AVivier

    @Brian7479 said...

    What was his ownership in GPP?

    Around 22%. I think I mentioned 3 WRs last week. Pascal who was 0.03% owned, Landry who was 5% owned and Sutton. 2 of the 3 did really, really well. I doubt there was a single person who ran all 3 in the same lu. If there is someone 25% owned, that doesn’t by itself mean it’s a bad GPP play.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    How do you get into that? Is it free?

    Yah – go to promotions link on DK

    Look for the Pick’em ad – it’ll be green

    Depending on how many you get right, you share that tier’s prize pool.

    When I remember to play, I usually get 9-10 right like the masses and win $0.17-0.39 😂

    This week I nailed a couple of upsets and almost all the 50-50 games

  • Ledford94

    The approach to succeeding this week is real foggy.

  • bluehaze013

    @mike42 said...

    I disagree that Sutton was a bad play and I’ve heard that argument 2x already. I would agree if SF had a shutdown corner but their best corner dies not travel. I also don’t think SF gave Sutton consistent extra attention since he’s really a nobody. The other WR’s produced but I think all 3 were in play and it was more of a random thing he didn’t produce. I can definitely see how he wasn’t a great play but the notion that he was a bad play against a really bad pass D with stationary corners seems results based. You should have been able to project 6-7 high adot tgts with solid TD equity for 4500 from a talented young receiver who’s needle was pointed up. That’s where process should have landed you in cash. In GPP’s, you can fade anyone with that profile or any profile when they are chalk.

    TBH Sutton has burned me more times than anyone else I’ve ever played lol not criticizing the though process because I’ve thought the same thing so many times in the last couple months and it always ends the same. I can totally relate to what you’re feeling but I would not play Sutton to save my life at this point so I can understand the other side of this argument as well. It’s frustrating.

  • Desiderio3

    More rake is better ask Daniel Negreanu 😂🤣

  • BIF

    @AVivier said...

    Around 22%. I think I mentioned 3 WRs last week. Pascal who was 0.03% owned, Landry who was 5% owned and Sutton. 2 of the 3 did really, really well. I doubt there was a single person who ran all 3 in the same lu. If there is someone 25% owned, that doesn’t by itself mean it’s a bad GPP play.

    Agree – I never think about ownership on full slate (10-14 games) or the Early slate (usually 8 games). This is because I only have had 1 or 2 dupes lineups all year and those have been in 100K+ entry contests.

    I start to think about it in the Afternoon 3-4 game slates (especially at RB and defense).

    I always think about it on the primetime 2 game slates and Showdown but that doesn’t mean I’m going to fade a guy I like but I may add/subtract 20% to be overweight or to make sure I’m underweight.

  • DfsBopBooth

    Mixon, Brady, AB, Edelman is my Core. I like Cook and Diggs as well, but with a new OC im not sure who the play calling will favor.

  • cordscords

    Time to put Carr back in the circle of trust? Back-to-back solid games and the matchup is juicy.

  • Messiah717

    Miami gives up a lot of points especially on the road. Both are fighting for the playoffs but after their Seattle dud I really see Minnesota coming out firing at home. Diggs, Cook and Thielen look good to me.

  • DfsBopBooth

    @cordscords said...

    Time to put Carr back in the circle of trust? Back-to-back solid games and the matchup is juicy.

    too soon. Both games were at home. I had him in 50% of my LU’s last week, but this week I don’t think so. East coast game, I think he struggles

  • mike42

    @Brian7479 said...

    It’s good to disagree sometimes man. Lets move on to this week. What’s your take on the Redskins rush D at this point?

    I got Founette in my season long playoffs so I hope they still suck. Pretty sure I read Jax should get back an O-line guy. Both teams got embarrassed last week but I think Jax dominates, surprised line is only 7. I thought Kessler looked legit pretty good vs Ten. You have to worry a little that Wash’s D plays with some heart, most teams will after a performance like last week, and they have talent that’s inexplicably underperformed for like 2 months. Founette may be THE chalk this week but I’ll be rooting for him.

    These late season meaningless games are always filled with surprises. If I turned on the game and Washington’s D was flying around it wouldn’t surprise me. The good news is like Dal, you know they will not abandon the run and you can’t say that about 90% of the league.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @BIF said...

    Yah – go to promotions link on DK

    Look for the Pick’em ad – it’ll be green

    Depending on how many you get right, you share that tier’s prize pool.

    When I remember to play, I usually get 9-10 right like the masses and win $0.17-0.39 😂

    This week I nailed a couple of upsets and almost all the 50-50 games

    Lol I feel like I’ve been missing out these past few months. Better late than never looks fun!

  • DfsBopBooth

    @mike42 said...

    I got Founette in my season long playoffs so I hope they still suck. Pretty sure I read Jax should get back an O-line guy. Both teams got embarrassed last week but I think Jax dominates, surprised line is only 7. I thought Kessler looked legit pretty good vs Ten. You have to worry a little that Wash’s D plays with some heart, most teams will after a performance like last week, and they have talent that’s inexplicably underperformed for like 2 months. Founette may be THE chalk this week but I’ll be rooting for him.

    These late season meaningless games are always filled with surprises. If I turned on the game and Washington’s D was flying around it wouldn’t surprise me. The good news is like Dal, you know they will not abandon the run and you can’t say that about 90% of the league.

    Im gonna play Thompson in a few LU’s. Jags are awful at covering the RB and I think whoever is the QB screens and dump offs will be the play

  • bluehaze013

    @Messiah717 said...

    Miami gives up a lot of points especially on the road. Both are fighting for the playoffs but after their Seattle dud I really see Minnesota coming out firing at home. Diggs, Cook and Thielen look good to me.

    It’s a gamble, lifelong Dolphins fan they always underachieve but when they come out to play they put on a show it’s so frustrating. This is similar to 2016? before Tannehill went out I think we were like 1-5 or something crazy and went on like a 6 or 7 game winning streak. Made the playoffs but had an ugly one and done to Pittsburgh. After that win against the Pats I am expecting a similar end to this season the players are definitely fired up and willing to play.

  • odanny

    I had 4 lineups with Dak/Cooper/Zeke that I reduced to one, and I still feel sick about it. I put Cooper in another lineup and won easily though.

  • mike42

    @DfsBopBooth said...

    too soon. Both games were at home. I had him in 50% of my LU’s last week, but this week I don’t think so. East coast game, I think he struggles

    Oak D doesn’t seem to show up on the road and anyone can score 3-4 TD’s Vs cincy. Be hard to do 10 LU’s and not have at least 1-or 2 be exposed to this game.

    D has to be played with an edge/emotion, O, not so much. So when u get a game like this you can’t pass it up, the upside variance we all look for to stack is there. Much more likely this game ends 35-34 in week 14 with nothing on the line than it would have been in week 3. Part of me thinks Gruden/Carr a like the odd couple, not sold just yet that Gruden will dump him because part of thinks they just may be good for each other.

    One of lessons learned from years past is to focus more on games like this late in the season and not the games that matter for both teams. PIT/NE and DAL/Indy will be playing hard, putting maximum effort in. I just remember thinking after a slate last year why did I focus so much on the competitive marquee games when a couple of the other games played D like it was a dec 31 bowl game.

    Most are going to gravitate towards the meaningful games but it’s cointerintuive if you think about it. We want busted coverages for long TD’s or gaping holes with missed tackles and the odds are better you get that from Oak/cincy than the Dal or NE games and ownership doesn’t usually reflect that:

  • joephoto

    @mike42 said...

    How do you get into that? Is it free?

    Mike. DK Promotions- Papa Johns Free Pick em. Play before Thurs night game.
    I’ve won half the weeks.
    Usually 35 cents or so.

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