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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/13
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3 ) at Kansas City ( -3 ) —- T: 56

    Saturday, 12/15
    4:30 PM EST : Houston ( -6.5 ) at NY Jets ( 6.5 ) —- T: 42
    8:20 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at Denver ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44

    Sunday, 12/16
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 36
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 2.5 ) at NY Giants ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 8 ) at Minnesota ( -8 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 8.5 ) at Atlanta ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Chicago ( -4 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4.5 ) at San Francisco ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 8.5 ) at LA Rams ( -8.5 ) —- T: 52

    Monday, 12/17
    8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -6.5 ) at Carolina ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • squidkill

    @odanny said...

    I had 4 lineups with Dak/Cooper/Zeke that I reduced to one, and I still feel sick about it. I put Cooper in another lineup and won easily though.

    My aunt ……..

  • Supanice

    @squidkill said...

    Interesting free overlay ay yahoo this week. Big promotion

    Thanks for this. Got a bonus for signing up so it was a free entry too. Been getting pissed with all the rampant cheating on DK so withdrawing to try out yahoo was a double dip.

  • squidkill

    @Supanice said...

    Thanks for this. Got a bonus for signing up so it was a free entry too. Been getting pissed with all the rampant cheating on DK so withdrawing to try out yahoo was a double dip.

    Good luck 👍🍀

  • Messiah717

    @Supanice said...

    Thanks for this. Got a bonus for signing up so it was a free entry too. Been getting pissed with all the rampant cheating on DK so withdrawing to try out yahoo was a double dip.

    You didn’t know we’ve been playing Russian bot lineups on DK?

  • bluehaze013

    @squidkill said...

    My aunt ……..

    If my Aunt was my Uncle she would have big cajones!

  • Brian7479

    @AVivier said...

    Around 22%. I think I mentioned 3 WRs last week. Pascal who was 0.03% owned, Landry who was 5% owned and Sutton. 2 of the 3 did really, really well. I doubt there was a single person who ran all 3 in the same lu. If there is someone 25% owned, that doesn’t by itself mean it’s a bad GPP play.

    Oh don’t get me wrong, I play a ton of chalk. For me he was just bad chalk. It’s simply difference of opinion. Everybody isn’t going to like the same plays. I liked a Buffalo receiver not named Zay Jones last week and some people didn’t. The week before I liked Kyle Rudolph and he didn’t produce. It’s all about opinion. The only thing I want to say on this topic since it’s being dragged out is that just because opportunity opens up doesn’t mean the production will. We’ve seen it with multiple players this year. Guys like Boyd and Golladay and many others. Even last week some people jumped on Sterling Shepard when OBJ was ruled out. It can work out a lot of times but not always. Moving on

  • AVivier

    Speaking of chalk, on the Sat slate Njoku is only 3.8k going agaisnt the team that made George Kittle famous. The next best TE is pbly Ryan Griffin. Anyone wanna fade Njoku here? And if so, for who?

  • mike42

    That 2 game slate is really hard to differentiate. Just nothing there. Idk how or why anyone would put in more than 5-10 LU’s.

  • Messiah717

    @mike42 said...

    That 2 game slate is really hard to differentiate. Just nothing there. Idk how or why anyone would put in more than 5-10 LU’s.

    Lets just be blunt. The games suck by design. Thursday, Sunday Night and Monday Night need their matchups and they’re not going to take good games away from Sunday.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @AVivier said...

    Speaking of chalk, on the Sat slate Njoku is only 3.8k going agaisnt the team that made George Kittle famous. The next best TE is pbly Ryan Griffin. Anyone wanna fade Njoku here? And if so, for who?

    Probably one of the the Texan TEs, especially if Coutee/Carter are out which would leave them very thin for receivers. I can already see it njoku 60+% owned for 3 pts. He’s inconsistent as hell, as most TE’s are for non elite ones.

  • AVivier

    @mike42 said...

    That 2 game slate is really hard to differentiate. Just nothing there. Idk how or why anyone would put in more than 5-10 LU’s.

    Even for a 2 game slate, this seems especially straightforward. I’m still maxing out the 20 entry ones cuz I’m an idiot and my team is playing.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    With all 3 Jets rb’s injured and sam darnold playing, think Texans D gets 20-30pts. I very rarely go 100% on anything but on that 2 game slate I would on that dst. Darnold is good for like 3-4 picks, maybe 2 could end up being TD’s.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Oak D doesn’t seem to show up on the road and anyone can score 3-4 TD’s Vs cincy. Be hard to do 10 LU’s and not have at least 1-or 2 be exposed to this game.

    D has to be played with an edge/emotion, O, not so much. So when u get a game like this you can’t pass it up, the upside variance we all look for to stack is there. Much more likely this game ends 35-34 in week 14 with nothing on the line than it would have been in week 3. Part of me thinks Gruden/Carr a like the odd couple, not sold just yet that Gruden will dump him because part of thinks they just may be good for each other.

    One of lessons learned from years past is to focus more on games like this late in the season and not the games that matter for both teams. PIT/NE and DAL/Indy will be playing hard, putting maximum effort in. I just remember thinking after a slate last year why did I focus so much on the competitive marquee games when a couple of the other games played D like it was a dec 31 bowl game.

    Most are going to gravitate towards the meaningful games but it’s cointerintuive if you think about it. We want busted coverages for long TD’s or gaping holes with missed tackles and the odds are better you get that from Oak/cincy than the Dal or NE games and ownership doesn’t usually reflect that:

    Great post and analysis Mike, only thing I’d add is those “shit games” also usually have a few guys (usually backups) getting a chance to start and/or playing for a job. By this point in the season those teams are basically done and you want to key on the guys who will give 100%. Identifying those are not always easy but I like to look at the previous game tape and see player reactions after bad plays, sideline camera shots and the effort some guys show trying break tackles in the 3rd and 4th Q. Anybody can stay motivated when they are 9-4 and in a division race but who is still laying it on the line when you are 4-9 and down 2 TDs about to lose your 10th game.

  • AVivier

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    With all 3 Jets rb’s injured and sam darnold playing, think Texans D gets 20-30pts. I very rarely go 100% on anything but on that 2 game slate I would on that dst. Darnold is good for like 3-4 picks, maybe 2 could end up being TD’s.

    I think all 4 have high ceilings. Denver is home agaisnt a rookie QB with 2 of the best pash rushers in the league. Cleveland’s D has actually caused the most turnovers of these teams and are agaisnt Keenum and lack of receivers for Denver. Houston for the reasons you mentioned. Jets are at home, the cheapest and have had 4 games with double digit DKFPS, including the last 2. I’m not sure with that and the high variance of the position this is a spot to go all-in on.

  • mike42

    BIF- You like Cleveland Saturday? Really feels like 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Den has Keenum and basically 5 rookies starting at rb, te and wr. D really has nobody outside of 2 DE’s and Cleveland hasn’t let up a sack in a few weeks. Secondary has bottom 5 talent right now. I know Den is a hard place to play but that’s more to do with early season and don’t think you can rely on that with this team. I thought they would lose last week and feel even more so this week. Talent wise, these two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum almost everywhere. Took them plus 3 and thinking about ML. Imagine you need to get it now, as crazy as it sounds, Cleve on its way to being America’s team. Everyone rooting for them.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mike42 said...

    BIF- You like Cleveland Saturday? Really feels like 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Den has Keenum and basically 5 rookies starting at rb, te and wr. D really has nobody outside of 2 DE’s and Cleveland hasn’t let up a sack in a few weeks. Secondary has bottom 5 talent right now. I know Den is a hard place to play but that’s more to do with early season and don’t think you can rely on that with this team. I thought they would lose last week and feel even more so this week. Talent wise, these two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum almost everywhere. Took them plus 3 and thinking about ML. Imagine you need to get it now, as crazy as it sounds, Cleve on its way to being America’s team. Everyone rooting for them.

    How do you feel about a game stack here?

    I feel like this might be a way to differentiate.

  • mike42

    @AVivier said...

    I think all 4 have high ceilings. Denver is home agaisnt a rookie QB with 2 of the best pash rushers in the league. Cleveland’s D has actually caused the most turnovers of these teams and are agaisnt Keenum and lack of receivers for Denver. Houston for the reasons you mentioned. Jets are at home, the cheapest and have had 4 games with double digit DKFPS, including the last 2. I’m not sure with that and the high variance of the position this is a spot to go all-in on.

    Einstein Vance Joseph told Keenum he wants him to take more chances and be more aggressive with his 21-22 year old group of WR’s. How do you think that turns out?

    Take away 1 1/2 and Mayfield is not someone you want to pick on. O-line playing stellar and Denver’s secondary playing scrubs. He should have time and guys should be open.

  • mike42

    @keephustlincuz said...

    How do you feel about a game stack here?

    I feel like this might be a way to differentiate.

    Game stack? I’m thinking Cleveland onslaught.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @AVivier said...

    I think all 4 have high ceilings. Denver is home agaisnt a rookie QB with 2 of the best pash rushers in the league. Cleveland’s D has actually caused the most turnovers of these teams and are agaisnt Keenum and lack of receivers for Denver. Houston for the reasons you mentioned. Jets are at home, the cheapest and have had 4 games with double digit DKFPS, including the last 2. I’m not sure with that and the high variance of the position this is a spot to go all-in on.

    If those 3 starting rb’s are ruled out, I don’t think jets can score any points, not even an FG. Darnold is really bad. I feel strongly about that.

    Bronco’s losing chris harris is a big deal… They have good pass rush but doesn’t matter when they can get passed on freely. Browns been playing well lately and havn’t been eating much sacks too. Ofc they’re on the road so they may struggle themselves. I can see potential in those dst’s but they’re definitely lower tier than texan’s matchup imo.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    BIF- You like Cleveland Saturday? Really feels like 2 teams heading in opposite directions. Den has Keenum and basically 5 rookies starting at rb, te and wr. D really has nobody outside of 2 DE’s and Cleveland hasn’t let up a sack in a few weeks. Secondary has bottom 5 talent right now. I know Den is a hard place to play but that’s more to do with early season and don’t think you can rely on that with this team. I thought they would lose last week and feel even more so this week. Talent wise, these two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum almost everywhere. Took them plus 3 and thinking about ML. Imagine you need to get it now, as crazy as it sounds, Cleve on its way to being America’s team. Everyone rooting for them.

    I have trouble trusting Clev on the road after a back and forth emotional win but I do really like the Over here and got on it already early at 44.5

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Game stack? I’m thinking Cleveland onslaught.

    I like Lindsay’s chances of a big game if they can get him outside; running between the tackles is not how you beat Clev – you beat them with speed on the edge – if Lindsay could catch better, he would be one of my top plays but if he has any success bouncing it outside he will have multiple 15+ yd carries.

    In my season long IDP league I have Lindsay and Myles Garrett – think they both have big games.

  • keephustlincuz

    @mike42 said...

    Game stack? I’m thinking Cleveland onslaught.

    It seems like Cleveland is really struggling with the run and they have been giving up plays to the out side speed guys.

  • mike42

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    If those 3 starting rb’s are ruled out, I don’t think jets can score any points, not even an FG. Darnold is really bad. I feel strongly about that.

    Bronco’s losing chris harris is a big deal… They have good pass rush but doesn’t matter when they can get passed on freely. Browns been playing well lately and havn’t been eating much sacks too. Ofc they’re on the road so they may struggle themselves. I can see potential in those dst’s but they’re definitely lower tier than texan’s matchup imo.

    R. Anderson. He’s the bad matchup for Houston. See TY’s stats last week. Enuma out, Colvin shuts down Kearse. You have to have some R. Anderson because he can take these old/slow cb’s to the house 1 time and make himself a must.

  • DfsBopBooth

    @mike42 said...

    Oak D doesn’t seem to show up on the road and anyone can score 3-4 TD’s Vs cincy. Be hard to do 10 LU’s and not have at least 1-or 2 be exposed to this game.

    D has to be played with an edge/emotion, O, not so much. So when u get a game like this you can’t pass it up, the upside variance we all look for to stack is there. Much more likely this game ends 35-34 in week 14 with nothing on the line than it would have been in week 3. Part of me thinks Gruden/Carr a like the odd couple, not sold just yet that Gruden will dump him because part of thinks they just may be good for each other.

    One of lessons learned from years past is to focus more on games like this late in the season and not the games that matter for both teams. PIT/NE and DAL/Indy will be playing hard, putting maximum effort in. I just remember thinking after a slate last year why did I focus so much on the competitive marquee games when a couple of the other games played D like it was a dec 31 bowl game.

    Most are going to gravitate towards the meaningful games but it’s cointerintuive if you think about it. We want busted coverages for long TD’s or gaping holes with missed tackles and the odds are better you get that from Oak/cincy than the Dal or NE games and ownership doesn’t usually reflect that:

    I agree to some extent. Love Mixon this week and I think someone from Oakland will have a decent game, but an east coast game for Carr and somehow the Bengals just held Rivers to his worst game of the season im gonna stay away besides Mixon and maybe Cook or a pass catcher. If you want 220 yards and maybe 2 tds from your QB I would fire up Carr. Ill have some pieces from NE/Pitt for sure since both defenses are bad, but both offenses are high powered.

  • BIF

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    If those 3 starting rb’s are ruled out, I don’t think jets can score any points, not even an FG. Darnold is really bad. I feel strongly about that.

    Bronco’s losing chris harris is a big deal… They have good pass rush but doesn’t matter when they can get passed on freely. Browns been playing well lately and havn’t been eating much sacks too. Ofc they’re on the road so they may struggle themselves. I can see potential in those dst’s but they’re definitely lower tier than texan’s matchup imo.

    McGuire will play for Jets, no injury was reported coming out last weekend’s game and it sound like they are just giving him some extra maintenance with it being a short week and Crowell likely not playing for 1-2 weeks.

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