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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/12
    8:20 PM EST : NY Jets ( 15.5 ) at Baltimore ( -15.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Sunday, 12/15
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 3.5 ) at NY Giants ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 5 ) at Green Bay ( -5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -5 ) at Carolina ( 5 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -10 ) at Cincinnati ( 10 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 11.5 ) at Kansas City ( -11.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -3.5 ) at Detroit ( 3.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -6 ) at Washington ( 6 ) —- T: 40
    4:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( -2 ) at Arizona ( 2 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 5.5 ) at Oakland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:05 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( 11 ) at San Francisco ( -11 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3 ) at Dallas ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Buffalo ( 1.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -1.5 ) —- T: 37

    Monday, 12/16
    8:15 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 8 ) at New Orleans ( -8 ) —- T: 45.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • superjon

    @keephustlincuz said...

    No Tannehill / AJ?

    Come back with Hopkins.

    Some AJ and Davis, but no Tannehill. Taking a stand and going super light on players from this game.

    I like ARI and CLE to hopefully shootout.

  • mike42

    @keephustlincuz said...

    For cash?

    For GPP’s. Not sure about cash on DK.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @mike42 said...

    I’m playing Jacobs and rather heavily (25%) if he plays and I don’t hear he will be limited. Last home game, Gruden will feed him is my best guess.

    The rb play nobody is talking about is D. Lewis or even Henry for that matter. Either Henry gets his full allotment of carries, it’s more of an even split or D. Lewis is the best play on the board. The thing is that as of now, unless some news breaks, Henry will go off at 5% and Lewis at sub 1% which doesn’t make sense. Houston is a pristine matchup for an RB, especially one like Lewis, and ownership will be minuscule between those 2 even though 1 will probably smash. Odds and ownership are not in the same ballpark and I doubt it will even make sense by lock tomorrow.

    Gotta disagree on Lewis. He has no ceiling and is not a good RB. Brady made him look decent, if he was any good the patriots would have kept him

  • candyman911

    Expecting NE to bounce back @ CIN and I expect them to run their normal offense. They are going to steam roll CIN. on Sunday.

    Edelman has been banged up all year and on the injury report, this week he has missed practice.

    Dorsett 3700 on DK is a great play as well as James white 5400. I will be having plenty of these guys and the NE defense.

  • parrothead112

    Does anybody have any opinion on Keenan Allen tomorrow? I am getting scared off of Parker with all this wind talk. Allens numbers look good lately. But I don’t get to watch many Vikings games. Any help?

  • mike42

    Honestly started with me going to post about a couple scheme things and I just kept going. Imagine the forum could use it. Good night:)

    Godwin:
    Explosive plays Vs man – 4, Vs zone -18
    Zone 827 yds, Man 290

    Det is the heaviest man D in the NFL. Evans was the man guy for sure. Almost strange, you would think Godwin would be able to beat man easily. Perriman has been more explosive Vs man too.

    Goliday benefits more from MJJ being out than Godwin does with Evans out. DET leads the NFL in 20 yd + passes despite being on their third qb which means the vertical passing game is part of their identity. Golliday should get all of those shots downfield on top of everything else and that’s saying something. With BO Scarborough out I’d imagine DET goes pass-heavy since there is nobody behind him. Golliday should really get elite usage in this game Vs a bad secondary. Nobody seems really sure how TB will do what it does.

    Metcalf Vs man- 47 tgts-432 yds, zone 29-274
    Lockett vs man – 33-293, zone 42-462

    Literally flip the numbers around depending on scheme and Car is the heaviest zone D in the NFL. Gordon favors man too so you can build a good case for Lockett this week.

    CMC should have difficulty rushing based on scheme alone. Sea is also 27th in RB tgt percentage (17.8%) which means on paper he’s a bad play.

    I read something about DJ moore being much better vs Man which made sense but sucked because I liked him this week but the numbers don’t back up that “experts” claim.

    Kelce is 30 which is the same age as Gronk is right now. I’ve been meaning to comment on it because that is the reason something is missing and I haven’t heard anyone else mention it. Less ceiling games moving forward and don’t draft him early next year.

    If Henry is limited tomorrow you play J. White Vs Hous, sorry, I meant you play D. Lewis Vs Houston. I got confused since they are both basically the same exact type of player. Also, this game will be slow-paced and both teams need a W, so it may not be the shootout everyone is looking for. If Ten controls the game, it could be downright ugly for everyone but the RB that nobody will roster.

    Philly should be able to run the ball, zone heavy scheme Vs a D that struggles to stop it, I just don’t think it will be Sanders.

    OBJ> Landry, play Julio and Hooper Vs a heavy zone D,

    Gurley matches up well on land and through the air. Higbee a target hog Vs zone D (DAL).

    I love DEEBO this week. I think for the big games you want Sanders but for ATL, you want DEEBO. WOuld have told you the same thing last week and I actually might of.

    M. Williams was taken off the injury report and Minny can’t stop him on the outside. Hopefully, it’s catches and not PI’s.
    Add 2-3 touches because Matteson is out. Now add 2-3 targets because of matchups at WR and because RB’s get targeted at the highest clip in the NFL Vs LAC’s D. That should get you to being dramatically overweight the RB most likely to lead the slate in raw points. So so matchup but not a bad one and who knows which LAC team shows up with nothing to play for.

    NYG/MIAMI- The ONLY players you might want in that game are the YAC guys (WIlson, Tate, Sheppard).

    The moment you turn on the DAL game you are going to realize that DAL used it’s mini-bye to find some heart. They will find a way to lose but too many people think a game between an elite D and a rested home D that was supposed to be elite will be THE shootout of the week. The JAX/OAK game will have that title.

  • mike42

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Gotta disagree on Lewis. He has no ceiling and is not a good RB. Brady made him look decent, if he was any good the patriots would have kept him

    It’s not a talent call as much as a usage call even though I don’t think he’s a bad RB. If Henry is standing on the sidelines in case of emergency type thing, Lewis should have a real good day in a real good matchup.

  • S7ubs

    @mike42 said...

    5.8% of the field will start their LU’s with that stack. It’s pointless unless you are going way off the board elsewhere.

    My gut tells me this is a let down spot for the titans. They are hot right now and always struggle against Houston. Just my gut

  • ifthethunder

    @squidkill said...

    Can’t get off Eli for 5200

    That’s where I am, but I have to admit the weather is making me nervous:

    MIA @ NYG – Windiest game of the week, sustained winds around 20mph with gusts over 30, I’ve bumped the impact level to ORANGE to reflect the impact to deep throws and kicks.”

    This might be worse for Ryan Fitzpatrick than Eli Manning, but it still could negatively impact the game total and script.

    P.S. Sorry, I see everyone has already talked about the wind. I woke up and couldn’t go back to sleep for hours, so finally figured might as well start figuring out my lineups. Anyways, this is likely a bump to the Giants D. (Which really needed it.)
    ~

  • Skee

    Where is Luke Kuechly for these 140 rushing yards given up per game? Do projections with Carson and Henry both scoring about the same (16) make sense? Henry has to still have the higher ceiling right? Carson has no multiple TD games.

  • zline34

    @mike42 said...

    Keep posting, we need it. I’m starting to get the feeling that CMC is going to get faded this week and it makes me like him more. It’s not ownership that drives my decisions as much as sentiment. Last week too many people were on the third pass-catcher on a team led by Jacoby Brissett and I sensed as much on here so I shifted away from him. This week it might be the TB third or 4th WR that gets too much attention. I like sensing the pulse of the forum/DFS community (insert joke here Squid) because it’s usually going to be off. The forum helps me spot extremes in sentiment and I use it to think out loud too which is a better way to process a 15 game slate than just keeping it all in.

    I watched that Car game again and when you actually see that CMC got stopped at the one 2x instead of just hearing about it, it makes you like him more this week. Notorious just said how there are other comparable plays to CMC this week so he’s not needed which also helps the case. The fact is that he’s due to score 2-3 TD’s and I think Car competes in this one. I got to see POWN but I’m hoping he’s 15%.

    Out of all the years I’ve played DFS that was the worst chalk WR I’ve ever seen the public land on. There was like a 90% chance he ended up with 0 fantasy points lol. I’m a Colts fan too. I might go with CMC this week as well. I like that the price is high with all the cheap WR’s in good spots.

  • ifthethunder

    @Skee said...

    Where is Luke Kuechly for these 140 rushing yards given up per game? Do projections with Carson and Henry both scoring about the same (16) make sense? Henry has to still have the higher ceiling right? Carson has no multiple TD games.

    Luke Kuechly, saying the Panthers run defense needs to improve:

    https://www.panthers.com/video/luke-kuechly-talks-about-leonard-fournette-panthers-run-defense

    Of course, that was on October 3. Carolina has given up 175 yards average in their last 3.

    https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-rushing-yards-per-game
    ~

  • dimestorez

    @mike42 said...

    CMC should have difficulty rushing based on scheme alone. Sea is also 27th in RB tgt percentage (17.8%) which means on paper he’s a bad play.

    Yeah, but CMC also put up over 50 DK points on them last year. How much of Seattle’s scheme has changed since last year? I’m not sure. On paper it would look alarming, like you said, but if you look closer at the teams they’ve played, there are plenty of games that were played against RB’s not heavily used in the passing game. Hell, even Mixon wasn’t even utilized in the passing game week 1. I’m just not sure if it’s due to defensive scheme or changes in some of these teams offensive schemes.

    I just think there has been so much talk on various forums this week about Barkley, Carson, Fournette, etc. We’ve seen CMC’s ownership plummet this week. He just seems like such a great play this week in tournaments.

  • devouredbychaos

    Anyone care to help me out with a decision in my season long league I’m pulling my hair out over? Lol.

    Mixon, Diggs, John Brown, Hooper, Perriman, or Marcus Johnson?

    I need just 1 to start in the flex. 14 team, 1pt PPR league. Currently have a 60pt lead thanks to Lamar, Bell, and Hollywood.

  • monarch

    I like DJ Moore here. No Clowney, Shaq Griffin probably doesn’t go. Also like Dede, Woods, Thielen sans Desmond King, Mike Williams, Cooper is sneaky in shadow coverage, Sterling Shepherd and maybe a flyer on Tajae Sharpe

  • superjon

    The 3 fades on Awesomeo’s show

    Slayton
    Kirk
    Barkley

    Barkley – I’ve been torn on him all week. Just seems like RBs are always chalk against MIA, and they haven’t been terrible against RBs. At least not enough for me to feel confident that Barkley crushes his price tag. Add to the fact that I think Cook, Chubb and Fournette are all much better plays in that tier. I’ll end up with around 10% Barkley.

    Slayton – I have zero exposure. Tate and some Shepard are my Giants receivers

    Kirk – Him and Hill will probably be my two highest owned WRs. As I mentioned in another post, I love the ARI/CLE game to be high scoring and a lot of my lineups will have Murray and Kirk, or just Kirk.

  • dimestorez

    @superjon said...

    Kirk – Him and Hill will probably be my two highest owned WRs. As I mentioned in another post, I love the ARI/CLE game to be high scoring and a lot of my lineups will have Murray and Kirk, or just Kirk.

    You could even throw in a couple Kenyan Drake into your Murray/Kirk stacks. That’s an incredibly cheap stack.

  • monarch

    I’ll watch it later but why does Alex Baker not like Kirk? Is he hungover in Puerto Rico lol?

    I like Kirk. Someone will do well maybe it’s just Kenyan Drake eating them up. Feels like an important game to figure out

  • superjon

    @monarch said...

    I’ll watch it later but why does Alex Baker not like Kirk? Is he hungover in Puerto Rico lol?

    I like Kirk. Someone will do well maybe it’s just Kenyan Drake eating them up. Feels like an important game to figure out

    It was the their guest that doesn’t like Kirk

    Awesomeo doesn’t like Slayton

  • Alvance83

    Mike as always, I love Your write ups!
    Couple guys I’ve been playing with in my FD gpp
    Mclaurin
    Rojo

    Akins and or fuller And or duke
    I want the points from this game and tough to decide maybe I’ll
    Just go naked Watson

    Thoughts?

  • monarch

    Normally dont TE flex but Waller and Higbee are going to get a butt load of targets and are still cheap

  • monarch

    @superjon said...

    It was the their guest that doesn’t like Kirk

    Awesomeo doesn’t like Slayton

    Ya…Slayton looks like a poor play with recency bias plus strong winds in NY.

  • monarch

    So Carson and Gurley? That’s a solid foundation this week or am I missing something?

  • kdsdawg

    well, I wake up to the fade Slayton talk, is this purely a wind thing?
    I am very heavy on this game. Last time I pulled off a game because of weather the Jets went crazy and I lost out.

  • Njsum1

    @parrothead112 said...

    Does anybody have any opinion on Keenan Allen tomorrow? I am getting scared off of Parker with all this wind talk. Allens numbers look good lately. But I don’t get to watch many Vikings games. Any help?

    As long as the chargers have to throw he seems wildly underpriced on DK.

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