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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/12
    8:20 PM EST : NY Jets ( 15.5 ) at Baltimore ( -15.5 ) —- T: 44.5

    Sunday, 12/15
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 3.5 ) at NY Giants ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 5 ) at Green Bay ( -5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -5 ) at Carolina ( 5 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -10 ) at Cincinnati ( 10 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 11.5 ) at Kansas City ( -11.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -3.5 ) at Detroit ( 3.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -6 ) at Washington ( 6 ) —- T: 40
    4:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( -2 ) at Arizona ( 2 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:05 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 5.5 ) at Oakland ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:05 PM EST : Minnesota ( -2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 2.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( 11 ) at San Francisco ( -11 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3 ) at Dallas ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    8:20 PM EST : Buffalo ( 1.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -1.5 ) —- T: 37

    Monday, 12/16
    8:15 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 8 ) at New Orleans ( -8 ) —- T: 45.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    It’s starting to get interesting, for sure. My initial take was it’s probably nothing but now it might be something. Stay tuned.

    They say The film crew is not linked to the football side of operations. Two separate entities.

    If they can link it to the football side then they are screwed.

  • Xmas32

    Man that Cleveland/Arizona game looks just awesome. Should be points galore and the players aren’t super overpriced where you can’t fit in other studs.

  • squidkill

    @BIF said...

    I may take over for him though – almost called this week’s Happy-er Meal the BeliCheat Bowl

    I would have to boycott out of respect. You wouldn’t get my cash game lineup in there this week. 😂

  • mike42

    @Xmas32 said...

    Man that Cleveland/Arizona game looks just awesome. Should be points galore and the players aren’t super overpriced where you can’t fit in other studs.

    Plus 1. I think it might not be chalky too. Fitzgerald’s last game at home too which I think is an angle that should at least be discussed.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Plus 1. I think it might not be chalky too. Fitzgerald’s last game at home too which I think is an angle that should at least be discussed.

    Yah I’ve been looking at this game and am trying to decide if both teams show up or just Zona; more overall talent on Browns side but a lot of splash-play guys on Zona so the upside is there but the tough part is figuring out who to play and whether to run anyone back the other way

  • Dabbie_McDabberson

    @Derfturf said...

    I know Carson is a good cash play, but how about gpp? Or will his ownership be too high? I’m still trying to figure out when to say the hell with ownership on certain players in good spots.

    The answer is always.

    Using ownership as a factor when deciding between plays has NEVER benefited me. It only ever serves to muddy the waters when there is already too much data to analyze.

    Also, I really don’t believe that ownership makes any difference at all unless you are in tourneys over 75/100k entries and even so, if the guy is a good play you will need him in your lineup regardless. If I’m gonna take a 8k WR because I like his matchup the things I want to consider are things like Can i get this production elsewhere for less money? If so, what can I do with other spots with the savings? I have started to completely disregard any ownership talk when I’m researching and making decisions. It completely changes my headspace for the worst.

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    Yah I’ve been looking at this game and am trying to decide if both teams show up or just Zona; more overall talent on Browns side but a lot of splash-play guys on Zona so the upside is there but the tough part is figuring out who to play and whether to run anyone back the other way

    Is anyone gonna take a shot or 2 with Njoku?

  • Dabbie_McDabberson

    To add on to what I just posted, a method that someone suggested once to me was to double the projected ownership on someone and ask yourself if you are comfortable with that much exposure to the player.

    EX: Barkley will be 35% owned in MM.

    This week would I be confident playing Barkley in 70% of my lineups?

    Of course I really don’t see any added value to this until you are finalizing your lineups before lock. First, ownership projections from today and Saturday night are going to be Night and Day. Second, JUST PLAY THE GOOD PLAYS.

  • deeebo

    no one likes dalvin this week against chargers?

  • deeebo

    not sure how i feel about playing carson and cmc both going against one another. probably carson is a lock but feel weird playing 2 rbs in the same game

  • Xmas32

    @33BeRad said...

    Is anyone gonna take a shot or 2 with Njoku?

    He’ll be an interesting pivot given that you can get Thomas in a great matchup against Seattle and Higbee who has been dominating since taking over TE1 for less.

  • jleit13

    I’ve seen people mention two TB bucs wr, Godwin and perriman. And sure, Godwin could see a few more targets with Evans gone but I don’t think his role changes much. I still think he’ll play in the slot and get alot of low a dot targets and at that price I’m fine fading him. Perriman is, well, hashtag not good at football. I also don’t think his role changes much either. He needs to catch at least 1 long pass and prob get in the box to be a great play bc I don’t think he will get too many targets. All of this leads me to Justin Watson. I think he fills in for the Mike Evans role which we’ve seen not be great at times this year but he’s 3700 and caught 5 of 8 targets for 59 yards and a td last week after Evans went out.
    Bif, as the resident bucs fan I would like to get your take on this situation and what about oj Howard, he seems to be out of the dog house now.

  • Dabbie_McDabberson

    The media (rightfully so) is all over Patricia and Quinn. Especially with Patricias “we’re better than our record” comment. He hasn’t shown much of a tendency to stray from his gameplan, but I think we might see a bit of a better showing on D from DET this week. They will get Rashaan Melvin back, and while he’s no world beater I’m sure that will help relieve a bit of the pressure that has been on the back end of the D the last couple weeks. Slay has been underperforming and Justin Coleman is 100% attackable in the slot.

    My concern with this game is plenty, and I have some questions I want to uncover before I start picking out of the trash bin here.
    How much does Evans absence effect this offenses ability to stretch the field and threaten teams deep?
    Who else besides Perriman is a deep threat?
    Godwin (who can be doubled now) and OJ Howard (is he still there?) are the play makers left, Winston makes bad decisions and only has the 4 fingers left on his throwing hand (and he could eat that hand prior to kick off when he’s hyping his co-workers up), and their backfield is completely unpredictable and very volatile.

    All that being said. I sure wish Stafford was playing…

  • Dabbie_McDabberson

    Not the first time I have seen you post this scenario.

    Stop making fake rules for your roster construction.

    Correlations are not an exact science and even so sometimes variance has to fall on the other side.

  • Xmas32

    @mike42 said...

    Plus 1. I think it might not be chalky too. Fitzgerald’s last game at home too which I think is an angle that should at least be discussed.

    Agreed, hopefully it’ll slip under the radar.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Yah I’ve been looking at this game and am trying to decide if both teams show up or just Zona; more overall talent on Browns side but a lot of splash-play guys on Zona so the upside is there but the tough part is figuring out who to play and whether to run anyone back the other way

    So last week Kitchens gave the NFL leading rusher 3 carries in the first half Vs a bottom 3 run D. This whole week he’s probably hearing about it so Einstein Jr should come out running the ball and I don’t think it works. I think Arz plays with the lead and bringing it back with Laundry at 2 to 1 over OBJ sounds about right. 20 MPH winds last week probably had something to do with Cleveland’s meh passing performance and that ARZ secondary is pretty bad. The thing is, that Clev D is pretty bad too outside of 2 CB’s that can get exposed when there is no pass rush. There is a universe where both these teams get to the 30’s in a late season meaningless game.

  • mike42

    @Dabbie_McDabberson said...

    Not the first time I have seen you post this scenario.

    Stop making fake rules for your roster construction.

    Correlations are not an exact science and even so sometimes variance has to fall on the other side.

    Who are you talking too?

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    Who are you talking too?

    Probably you, fake roster construction poster 🥴

  • Dabbie_McDabberson

    Sorry I dont know why my quote button isnt working

    I was talking to deebo

  • deeebo

    @Dabbie_McDabberson said...

    Sorry I dont know why my quote button isnt working

    I was talking to deebo

    lol leave me alone. not sure who ya are my man but everyone on this forum knows i repeat the same things every week lol. if you dont have anything nice to say, dont say it.

  • gordylamb

    • 589

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Dabbie_McDabberson said...

    Not the first time I have seen you post this scenario.

    Stop making fake rules for your roster construction.

    Correlations are not an exact science and even so sometimes variance has to fall on the other side.

    It’s math which is very literally a science

    If you want to make +EV lineups and side with math, then you care about correlation.

    If you don’t care about EV, and will just say “whatever variance variance”, then just click some buttons, why even bother posting or researching?

  • yisman

    Alshon Jeffery out for the season.

    Tough situation for the Eagles WR corps.

  • fitz2k2

  • keephustlincuz

    @fitz2k2 said...

    Marvin Jones going on ir

    Damn it. I had him in some of my initial builds.

  • jfl52

    How much do ya’ll think teams will shut down/cut back players from teams that are already eliminated from the playoffs ? ex. Carolina with CMC; Jacksonville with Fournette

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