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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/17
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3 ) at Las Vegas ( -3 ) —- T: 54

    Saturday, 12/19
    4:30 PM EST : Buffalo ( -4.5 ) at Denver ( 4.5 ) —- T: —
    8:15 PM EST : Carolina ( 8.5 ) at Green Bay ( -8.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Sunday, 12/20
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Minnesota ( -3 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -2 ) at Dallas ( 2 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 13.5 ) at Baltimore ( -13.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4 ) at Atlanta ( 4 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 10 ) at Tennessee ( -10 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -4.5 ) at Washington ( 4.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 16.5 ) at LA Rams ( -16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:05 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 5.5 ) at Arizona ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at New Orleans ( 4 ) —- T: 52
    8:20 PM EST : Cleveland ( -3.5 ) at NY Giants ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 12/21
    8:15 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -13 ) at Cincinnati ( 13 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @fitz2k2 said...

    Has a 9,000+ player ever been on the milly lineup?

    I’m sure CMAC has been on before

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    Plus 1. I was kind of hoping nobody was on him but Raheem the dream singled him out for being the 1 guy who has improved the most. He starts this game with 10 but counting on Ryan to throw a TD to a secondary WR without Julio in the game might be a little too much of an ask.

    I played a lot of Gage last week and he had a solid week with 18.76 points without hitting the box (though he did throw for a TD 😂) at just 5-6% ownership across most GPPs at $4500

  • realphipps

    Tyler Eifert has seen at least 5 targets in 6 games this year. Jacksonville should be passing to catch-up all day. Cleveland concentrated on TEs quite a bit the other night.

    It strikes me as a low owned thin play at a highly volatile position. For 2.9dk, I’ll have some shares.

  • aquasition

    So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?

  • infantryboys

    Anyone considering Hurts in cash? Opens up a lot of salary. Only problem I can see is that Arizona defense is very experienced against a mobile QB.

  • BIF

    @synth said...

    I mentioned it last week and a bit earlier this week but you gotta stop thinking the Seahawks are a bad passing defense currently. Adams return has shifted them from atrocious to good. Like, very good. Haven’t given up 24 points in 5 weeks or so. Haven’t given up shit to a WR in that span either.

    WR 1 in that span vs them:

    Woods 5/33/0
    Hopkins 5/51/0
    Alshon 2/15/0
    Slayton 1/14/0
    Perriman 3/26/0

    WR 2 vs them:

    Kupp 5/50/0
    Kirk 4/50/0
    Reagor 3/11/0
    Shepherd 1/21/0
    Berrios 3/49/0

    WR3 vs them:

    Reynolds 8/94/0
    Fitz 8/62/0
    Fulgram 2/16/0
    Tate 4/30/0
    Smith 1/14/0

    Thats zero. Zero. 0. WR touchdowns in 5 weeks.

    Adams is really, really good at football and having him bringing pressure, hawking, and helping has made that secondary awesome.

    So many of the touts/public are stuck on the mentality that the Seahawks pass D is awful because he missed time and they got torched during it. Don’t fall into that trap and start looking at Haskins or McLaurin or anything. Haskins sucks. Seahawks pass D is good. Just move elsewhere imo.

    Seattle also may get Carlos Dunlap back to help the pass rush – he missed last week at NYJ

  • superjon

    @mike42 said...

    Part 1: DO you guys remember before SEA played LAR for the first time and I said everyone is blinded by SEA’s big 3 on O to the point where they can’t see that beyond them (russ+2WR’s)? I then went on to say the simple fact is Sea is not a very good team that is facing a good team with an elite D. KC has 3 players at the top of their positions and not much else. Every other year we’ve seen other WR’s and a RB smash consistently for KC, not this one. Their D-line was dominating last year but not so much this year. WE love how consolidated their touches are but NO’s has an elite D capable of slowing down a consolidated O like KC’s.

    Part2: The closest matchup I can think of for NO’s this year was on SNF vs TB, which at the time, looked like the real deal. Look NO’s had a letdown last week but it was still even more about Philly bringing it’s A game than anything else. NO’s will come out hard off a loss and odds are strong they can dominate the line scrimmage and slow down KC’s big 3 more times than not, if not almost completely.

    I want to make my call clear. NO’s kicks the living shit out of KC. Maybe KC has 1-2 drives early or late, but the game is very one sided in favor of NO’s. Take the under. Fade the big 3 completely and play Kamara/L. Muirray and the NO’s D. This will be the most humbling game in years for KC.

    Edit: I saw it earlier in the week, but very similar to when Muppet was out for TB, KC is banged up on the O-line and they could not have picked a worse week to be short up front.

    RE: Seattle v LA

    I think LA’s defense is a little better than New Orleans, and KC’s offense is wayyy better than Seattle’s.

    Offense wins games in today’s NFL.

    But anything can happen and if you think NO is that much better than KC, then stick with it.

  • superjon

    @aquasition said...

    So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?

    Singletary

  • bigwillie20

    @aquasition said...

    So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?

    Need a thread for Sat. only so we don’t muddy this one up

  • NDNole

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    As a WFT fan, this take is spot on. I might play a tiny bit of Terry in Russell/Metcalf run backs but that’s it. I will have a lot of Seattle defense. Haskins is not it.

    Since you are a WFT fan what is your take on Cam sims? I like him this week. He gets a lot of snaps and I think he can pop one long TD.

  • zovyn

    @aquasition said...

    So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?

    (F/D)

    I’d be surprised if those two aren’t running 70-80%+ pOWN% on the 2-game slate.

    Beyond those two there really aren’t many playable options. Singletary/Moss worth a look but their timeshare roles have gotten muddled a bit over the last few weeks.

    Denver RBs against a decent Buffalo RunD will be contrarian to that, especially as they’re both (MG3 + Lindsay) limited but no expectation that they won’t play. That being said, they’ll probably have the same or even higher pOWN% than the Buffalo RBs if they’re Q tags and chatter keep trending in the positive direction.

    Beyond that? JWill for GB hasn’t produced but has gotten enough touches to be a gamble worth considering. If you think either of the DEN RBs are hurt worse than they say and/or if either of them sit – Royce Freeman hits the radar at near min price.

    Running a flex RB on Saturday will definitely be a way to make a unique lineup.

    Despite the matchups, Jones is probably my most likely fade. I’m just not a believer. This won’t be the first time he’s in a ‘smash’ spot and he hasn’t smashed much of anything this season overall. THAT being said – even with a pessimistic 10pt floor I’m not sure there are other options that can replace him. Can’t likely afford to fade him and Davis in CASH games, I’m guessing – though I’m a GPP-only guy for the most part.

  • zovyn

    @marker0357 said...

    I think I’m off of Scary Terry now

    I think if you’re going to take the flyer on Haskins, the right pairing would be with McKissic or Thomas. But with so many phenomenal RB matchups this weekend I can’t see myself using a spot for JD.

  • kbarnhill7523

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    @NDNole said...

    Since you are a WFT fan what is your take on Cam sims? I like him this week. He gets a lot of snaps and I think he can pop one long TD.

    He’s kind of like a homeless man’s Sammy Watkins. He’s got good speed and runs intermediate and deep routes well. This isn’t a vertical offense though and he largely clears space for the short, intermediate stuff. He’s had a few nice games though and will get some targets for sure.

    This is a low volume offense with Haskins at the helm. They will do the best they can to take the ball out of his hands.

  • fitz2k2

    Anyone have ownership %?

  • BIF

    Bucs are now down a Tackle this week as Donovan Smith is out as a close contact of a family member. Sunday will only be his 2 missed game since 2015.

    They have elevated Guard Ted Larsen from practice squad – he is capable of playing anywhere on the line so depth should be ok.

  • realphipps

    Anyone buying Miles Sanders this week?

    Not a huge fan of the matchup, on paper, yet that zone read has a funny way of paying off for one-cut RBs.

    I’m actually more concerned about the amount of practice time that Arizona D has against a similar offensive approach than I am their overall defense and/or game script.

  • 33BeRad

    @realphipps said...

    Anyone buying Miles Sanders this week?

    Not a huge fan of the matchup, on paper, yet that zone read has a funny way of paying off for one-cut RBs.

    I’m actually more concerned about the amount of practice time that Arizona D has against a similar offensive approach than I am their overall defense and/or game script.

    May as well buy Drake too, especially if Edmonds is out.

  • Jokey401

    “So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?“

    These two in the same lineup do not correlate well at all. If Jones is doing well, who is more probable to be doing well on the other side? Not a RB, most likely. I think Jones/moss or Davis/Gordon or Moss.

  • Jokey401

    So are you just plugging in Mosert in lieu of Wilson? Or is that to risky with the injury, possible snap limit, sharing the caries, etc.

    I really want to play Aiyuk, but at 25% ownership. I just can’t.

  • be47320

    What are we doing with Lenny Fournette this week?

  • zovyn

    @Jokey401 said...

    “So who are the two RB’s in play tomorrow? Jones and Davis?“

    These two in the same lineup do not correlate well at all. If Jones is doing well, who is more probable to be doing well on the other side? Not a RB, most likely. I think Jones/moss or Davis/Gordon or Moss.

    That’s fair – but on a 2-game slate, correlation seems less relevant than floor/ceiling – there are plenty of scenarios that put Davis/Jones as the top 2 raw-scoring RBs tomorrow based on guaranteed volume/touches alone.

  • be47320

    Need a little help please

    Jarvis Landry, Antonio Brown, DJ Moore

    Pick 2

  • Jokey401

    I’ll play. Dj Moore ( in a game they will surely be playing from behind) and Jarvis ( because he will not be competing as much for targets as AB will) Also , AB’s targets dipped last week.

    So, DJ and Jarvis.

    @zovyn of coarse, anything can happen in gpp’s. For me though, I won’t be playing both in the same lu. I’m becoming a slave to game theory and it’s paying off.

  • NDNole

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    He’s kind of like a homeless man’s Sammy Watkins. He’s got good speed and runs intermediate and deep routes well. This isn’t a vertical offense though and he largely clears space for the short, intermediate stuff. He’s had a few nice games though and will get some targets for sure.

    This is a low volume offense with Haskins at the helm. They will do the best they can to take the ball out of his hands.

    Gotcha

  • zovyn

    This for Seasonal? IMO Moore > Landry/Brown – All 3 seem to have good individual coverage matchups on paper.

    It’s always nice to have a MNF player for mental ‘cushion’ if you think it’s a toss-up between Landry/AB. Definitely think Moore is a clear #1 on that list. The optimizers I look at all have Landry ahead of AB for what that’s worth and everything would seem to suggest that Landry has a higher floor and ceiling. Lot of mouths to feed in TB and Cleveland shouldn’t be completely able to run the ball up and down the field on the Giants. So if they need a lot of 3rd down conversions, Landry is the guy.

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