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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 12/17
    8:20 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 3 ) at Las Vegas ( -3 ) —- T: 54

    Saturday, 12/19
    4:30 PM EST : Buffalo ( -4.5 ) at Denver ( 4.5 ) —- T: —
    8:15 PM EST : Carolina ( 8.5 ) at Green Bay ( -8.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Sunday, 12/20
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Minnesota ( -3 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -2 ) at Dallas ( 2 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( 2.5 ) at Miami ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 13.5 ) at Baltimore ( -13.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -4 ) at Atlanta ( 4 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 10 ) at Tennessee ( -10 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -4.5 ) at Washington ( 4.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 16.5 ) at LA Rams ( -16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:05 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 5.5 ) at Arizona ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -4 ) at New Orleans ( 4 ) —- T: 52
    8:20 PM EST : Cleveland ( -3.5 ) at NY Giants ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 12/21
    8:15 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -13 ) at Cincinnati ( 13 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @mike42 said...

    Bears probably going to be down not only Skrine, but Jaylon too, who’s been mostly a pleasant surprise at outside corner. Bush is not practicing also and I’m pretty sure he’s the first backup. Basically, everyone should be considering buying low on Thielen and especially JJ. Bears don’t travel so JJ is going to probably be covered by a practice squad caliber player. In regards to Cooks, I know we’ve all thought it’s time they give him a break, and we’ve all been wrong, but Cousins had his way with us on MNF when we are playing at our best and fully healthy, maybe given the injuries coupled with the abusive level of usage they’ve been giving to Cook, they just let Cousins throw it 30-35x and even use Abdullah (a lttile bit) to help salt it away. Cook needs a sub 20 touch day and if he didn’t already get his contract, I would think that the amount they have used him is inhumane.

    Everyone going to on Kmet, Arob, and Trubisky, maybe Montgomery, but even if we look past ownership, straight up I like Cousins/2 WR’s/ I. Smith in this one over their counterparts. Zimmer can run circles around Nagy/Trubisky and the difference between Det(minus both DT’s and it;s entire secondary)/Hous (minus Roby+ it’s top 3 WR’s) and Minny is meaningful. Zimmer has said he has gained confidence in his young CB’s and the numbers on PFF back it up. I REALLLY REALLY like the odds of at least 1 Minny pass catcher going off against our practice squad CB’s.

    Hmmm probably should check the status of WRs this week more closely.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @superjon said...

    Stafford
    Foles
    Dalton
    Bridgewater
    Glennon
    Brady

    Now I’m not saying Mitch is a great play, or even a decent play.

    But I think it’s important if you’re going to provide numbers, that you include the QBs for context.

    Yes, none of them had great games, but Brady is the only top QB they’ve faced in those games and he hasn’t exactly been the model of consistency this season.

    There was no need for context. The given knowledge we all share is that Trubisky is better than nobody. Bottom of the barrel. Vikings are giving up 15, 20 if they’re lucky to these bottom barrel QB as of late.

    You did not provide context that Trubisky ranked 9th highest against these 3 teams.. Packers, Lions, Texans. 2 of them ranked in the top 9 for most points given to QB. Packers are one of the better against the QB but Mitch threw 2 garbage TD in the 4th Q while his team was down 10-41. I think he fumbled and recovered that drive too. In his first game back after being benched for playing bad. How is that context

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    He threw 2 early picks that game, sucked so bad, the next 2 games they decided they absolutely need to get the ball to David Montgomery and he seems to have taken the TD duties over.

    You didn’t mention the Texans CB issues in the game where Trubisky threw 3 TD. Or the fact that every WR for the Texans and their RB got Covid-ed so they couldn’t move the ball at all, giving many possessions to the Bears against an empty secondary team with no run defense for easy first downs.
    Vikings started off looking similar to how the Texans look now, but they have gotten healthier stronger better coordinated with their young secondary and Cook is running 25 times a game on average size bye week 7 weeks ago, with 3.5 short yardage clock killing receptions. And another 4-5 rush per game from people not named Cook. I don’t think it’s a great outlook for Trubisky when Rosen is 400 more, rushed 100 yards and threw for a TD and victory against a tough Saints. Also he rushed 29 yards in 1 quarter of his first appearance so he was on pace for 100 rushing in that game with 300+ passing.

    Not saying it can’t happen, but I’m not loving the spot.

  • Rickytango13

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    He threw 2 early picks that game, sucked so bad, the next 2 games they decided they absolutely need to get the ball to David Montgomery and he seems to have taken the TD duties over.

    You didn’t mention the Texans CB issues in the game where Trubisky threw 3 TD. Or the fact that every WR for the Texans and their RB got Covid-ed so they couldn’t move the ball at all, giving many possessions to the Bears against an empty secondary team with no run defense for easy first downs.
    Vikings started off looking similar to how the Texans look now, but they have gotten healthier stronger better coordinated with their young secondary and Cook is running 25 times a game on average size bye week 7 weeks ago, with 3.5 short yardage clock killing receptions. And another 4-5 rush per game from people not named Cook. I don’t think it’s a great outlook for Trubisky when Rosen is 400 more, rushed 100 yards and threw for a TD and victory against a tough Saints. Also he rushed 29 yards in 1 quarter of his first appearance so he was on pace for 100 rushing in that game with 300+ passing.

    Not saying it can’t happen, but I’m not loving the spot.

    Lol Rosen must’ve really worked on his speed and agility last offseason

  • Gtzerphy

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Slay is in concussion protocol and likely missing this game and they have another starting CB questionable. Doesn’t seem like Murray has it in him to give a WR a real monster game to justify Hopkins price. 8k for a Hopkins who can get 10-30 or 9k for a Adams that can get 15-50 that’s the type you want to pay up for.

    Love Christian Kirk for the same reasons, but cheaper and lower owned. He is my favorite sneaky play of the week.

  • kdsdawg

    @Landa501 said...

    so you guys are still looking at the main slate on wednesday with a game tomorrow night and games on saturday huh? Some people cant get out of their own way

    mind your business

  • zovyn

    One of the (many) reasons I start my research early is so I can put in a lot of diverse ‘gut’ lineups at the beginning of the week with most of my initially expected player pool. Once players are in an upcoming LU, FD app pushes a lot of their injury/status updates as they arise. Helps me keep track of which way guys are trending throughout the week and which ones I need to keep an eye on throughout the week while I go about working and whatnot.

    It’s ridiculous to think that information on Mon/Tue/Wed/Thur/Fri isn’t helpful and/or relevant to spotting trends, field ownership expectations, and major shifts in potential game scripts (Umm… remember that time Covid wiped out all 3 QBs for the Broncos?)

    I approach a lot of DFS (especially NFL in 2020) with simplified Chaos Theory because that’s how my brain is wired. You keep the whole massive and constantly changing mess in front of you and try to see the patterns. I have just enough success to keep me playing and hoping to win a really big one someday. Piss on my methods all you want. :P

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Hurts lol

  • mike42

    Just because Trubiskey seems to be a topic of debate this week—-from an article I just read:

    Well, according to Trubisky, the coaching staff is finally starting to adjust the offense to fit his strengths and do the things that he’s been asking to do on offense, which include using his mobility, running play action and — shocker — using Chicago’s top draft pick in rookie tight end Cole Kmet.

    This is just kind of some of the things I’ve been asking for,” Trubisky told reporters Wednesday. “I feel like they are strengths of mine and also strengths of this offense. I just thought it was a good idea to get Cole more involved, to get David more involved, to get A-Rob more involved.”

    The Bears offense has averaged over 30 points a game over the last three games, where Trubisky has completed 76-of-113 passes (67.2%) for 776 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions for a 103.2 passer rating.

    But more than the numbers, the last two games have shown obvious improvement. Although facing two bad defenses will certainly help. Still, you can’t ignore the strides the unit has made, particularly when it comes to forging an offensive identity that starts with running the football, utilizing Trubisky’s mobility and getting the team’s playmakers going.

    You’d figure it would’ve taken head coach Matt Nagy less than three years to finally realize that instead of forcing his players to fit his system that he should be adapting his offense to fit the strengths of his players.

    ME: Look, there is a universe where this game shoots out. Bears D been susceptible and the Bears finally got that 7 game losing streak monkey off their back. The first matchup was low scoring, maybe this one is the opposite. I honestly don’t know anything for sure other than NAGY is just a REALLY bad coach. It’s unreal that it took him 3 years to cater an offense to Trubisky and it only happened after he gave up play-calling duties. Just unacceptable given that the media and fans have been screaming for him to use him correctly and run the ball more. Trubiskey might actually have a decent career somewhere else which seems to be a theme will players that move on and disappointed under Nagy.

    Montgomery might be the easiest call given that Patterson is splitting carries for no good reason at all. Feels like he shouldn’t be in anybody’s top 5.

  • synth

    I really hate when DK messes with something good

    For the last month+ they’ve had a $5 3 max entry that had 10th place receive 10% of 1st place and paid 2x the entry for the min cash. Was a great tournament.

    This week that same tournament is now 6% of 1st to 10th and $8 for a min cash instead of $10.

    Really hurts one of the best valued small stakes tournaments out there

  • rickleese

    Always making things better.

  • mike42

    Does anyone have any idea why we are going to watch NY/Clev on SNF instead of NO/KC? Did they want to make the main slate better for DFS? Just doesn’t make any sense how anyone could have thought a Giants game would be entertaining. It’s weird, I’ve never seen a team improve by making the other team bad but not by making themselves look better until the 2020 Giants.

  • synth

    Iirc networks have the ability to block a specific game from being flexed and KC/NO is a prime game to be blocked in that way

  • katho54

    Id like to see DK have an option where you could play games with team QBs or team RBs…Then injuries wouldnt hurt as much

  • superjon

    For those that like Henry, you can now breathe a sigh of relief.

    He is NOT the beast of the week. That honor goes to Calvin Ridley.

  • synth

    As I’ve looked more and more into the slate, I need someone to sanity check me on playing Nick Mullens + Aiyuk in DK GPPs.

    I’ve seen that Mullens has attempted 45, 39, 35, 38, and 35 pass attempts in his last 5 games. Dallas secondary has given up 26 points to Lamar, 26 points to Cousins, and 28 points to Ben over their last 6 games. They’ve also given up 12 to Wentz, 9 to Alex Smith, and 13 to Allen. Neither Wentz or Smith reached 30 pass attempts in those games. Essentially, teams have been able to beat Dallas however they really want. The teams that threw racked up points at QB. The teams that ran racked up points at RB (minus cincy, who is a total mess and should be discarded in this discussion fmpov).

    Aiyuk has 24, 20, 19, 23, and 20 points in his last 5 games. The targets over that span are 16, 9 , 14, 10, and 7. Deebo is out so targets should be consolidated towards Aiyuk as Bourne hasn’t shined with his opportunities this year.

    For 11.4k you get the combination of a QB throwing a lot of passes, a WR1 being peppered with targets (potentially more condensed with the Deebo injury), in a game that’s supposed to be competitive (-2.5 pt favorites), going against the worst PPG defense in the league who also give up a full touchdown more at home than overall (dal defense gives up 30.8 ppg overall, 37.5 ppg at home indoors), while also getting a high paced game (Dallas runs the second most plays per game so far at 69.9).

    I look at all of these and it makes me want to get some lineups in that direction. Then I also remember its Nick Mullens and I wonder if I should work on lineups late at night anymore.

  • depalma13

    @MattyK1981 said...

    The whole country just watched the Rams run all over the Patriots on TNF, but the Jets actually aren’t that bad vs the run however they continue to be brutal vs the pass.

    Folorunso Fatukasi is out. The Jets run defense is now a sieve.

  • Joeltimb

    @synth said...

    As I’ve looked more and more into the slate, I need someone to sanity check me on playing Nick Mullens + Aiyuk in DK GPPs.

    I’ve seen that Mullens has attempted 45, 39, 35, 38, and 35 pass attempts in his last 5 games. Dallas secondary has given up 26 points to Lamar, 26 points to Cousins, and 28 points to Ben over their last 6 games. They’ve also given up 12 to Wentz, 9 to Alex Smith, and 13 to Allen. Neither Wentz or Smith reached 30 pass attempts in those games. Essentially, teams have been able to beat Dallas however they really want. The teams that threw racked up points at QB. The teams that ran racked up points at RB (minus cincy, who is a total mess and should be discarded in this discussion fmpov).

    Aiyuk has 24, 20, 19, 23, and 20 points in his last 5 games. The targets over that span are 16, 9 , 14, 10, and 7. Deebo is out so targets should be consolidated towards Aiyuk as Bourne hasn’t shined with his opportunities this year.

    For 11.4k you get the combination of a QB throwing a lot of passes, a WR1 being peppered with targets (potentially more condensed with the Deebo injury), in a game that’s supposed to be competitive (-2.5 pt favorites), going against the worst PPG defense in the league who also give up a full touchdown more at home than overall (dal defense gives up 30.8 ppg overall, 37.5 ppg at home indoors), while also getting a high paced game (Dallas runs the second most plays per game so far at 69.9).

    I look at all of these and it makes me want to get some lineups in that direction. Then I also remember its Nick Mullens and I wonder if I should work on lineups late at night anymore.

    I love the 49er skill players this week, but can’t pull the trigger on Mullens. 3 td implied total and Shanahan may run the ball 35 times. Aiyuk and Wilson in the same lineup should absolutely be contrarian enough, and cheap enough, to get off Mullens IMO (especially seeing where wr+rb stacks w/o QB had been profitable lately)

  • NDNole

    @synth said...

    As I’ve looked more and more into the slate, I need someone to sanity check me on playing Nick Mullens + Aiyuk in DK GPPs.

    I’ve seen that Mullens has attempted 45, 39, 35, 38, and 35 pass attempts in his last 5 games. Dallas secondary has given up 26 points to Lamar, 26 points to Cousins, and 28 points to Ben over their last 6 games. They’ve also given up 12 to Wentz, 9 to Alex Smith, and 13 to Allen. Neither Wentz or Smith reached 30 pass attempts in those games. Essentially, teams have been able to beat Dallas however they really want. The teams that threw racked up points at QB. The teams that ran racked up points at RB (minus cincy, who is a total mess and should be discarded in this discussion fmpov).

    Aiyuk has 24, 20, 19, 23, and 20 points in his last 5 games. The targets over that span are 16, 9 , 14, 10, and 7. Deebo is out so targets should be consolidated towards Aiyuk as Bourne hasn’t shined with his opportunities this year.

    For 11.4k you get the combination of a QB throwing a lot of passes, a WR1 being peppered with targets (potentially more condensed with the Deebo injury), in a game that’s supposed to be competitive (-2.5 pt favorites), going against the worst PPG defense in the league who also give up a full touchdown more at home than overall (dal defense gives up 30.8 ppg overall, 37.5 ppg at home indoors), while also getting a high paced game (Dallas runs the second most plays per game so far at 69.9).

    I look at all of these and it makes me want to get some lineups in that direction. Then I also remember its Nick Mullens and I wonder if I should work on lineups late at night anymore.

    When you get that help let me know. I have been mulling the same thing. lol

  • fleishmo6

    Am I totally crazy in being well under the field with Derrick Henry and shuffling through with, Taylor, Swift, Wilson and Akers? Going with expensive WRs instead, to be contrarian.

  • fitz2k2

    Has a 9,000+ player ever been on the milly lineup?

  • NDNole

    @fitz2k2 said...

    How 9,000+ player ever been on the milly lineup?

    Someone has forgotten the Steeler golden age with AB and Bell BOTH over 9k lol. Or CMC pretty much all the time last year.

  • fitz2k2

    @NDNole said...

    Someone has forgotten the Steeler golden age with AB and Bell BOTH over 9k lol. Or CMC pretty much all the time last year.

    Wow

  • winnerchickendinner

    Brees will be back this week. Kamara is even more of a lock now.

  • dominicanpapi

    Julio officially out.

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