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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -6 ) at NY Jets ( 6 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Cincinnati ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 6 ) at Indianapolis ( -6 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( 0 ) at Philadelphia ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 5.5 ) at Minnesota ( -5.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Tampa Bay ( -4 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7.5 ) at Washington ( -7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Miami ( 7.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 7 ) at Atlanta ( -7 ) —- T: 55.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 0 ) at Pittsburgh ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Arizona ( -6.5 ) at Los Angeles ( 6.5 ) —- T: 40.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -8.5 ) at San Francisco ( 8.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( 0 ) at San Diego ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Denver ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : Green Bay ( 0 ) at Detroit ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Jem1434

    @chronoxiong said...

    I also chased Charles Clay last few games hoping he would produce but that didn’t happen.

    It was a decent play, you couldn’t predict EJ Manuel throwing at Clay’s feet for what should have been a walk in TD

  • BIF

    @Jem1434 said...

    It was a decent play, you couldn’t predict EJ Manuel throwing at Clay’s feet for what should have been a walk in TD

    Actually…sadly you can predict that with EJ Manuel who has played his last football in Buffalo and likely his last in the NFL (I don’t count preseason somewhere next year before he gets cut).

    I played zero Bills because of EJ at QB and zero Steelers because of an equally inept Landry Jones who needed over 4 quarters of play to “get loose” and actually make some NFL quality throws in OT against the worst team in the league.

  • cy1985

    Clay had reached his highest value after the Fins game. It was bound to fall off after they took Tyrod out this week.

    I was on Clay week 15.

  • kpquick24

    @BIF said...

    Tough pricing for Wild Cards this upcoming weekend

    Good luck trying to make a lineup you love top to bottom
    There just isn’t many cheap value players available
    Bell at 10,300 kills your ability to get more than a couple other studs

    I see your point. Pricing is very tough. I think finding the right studs to fade this weekend is the way to go.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @cy1985 said...

    I hear you. Listen, if you’re up money this year, you’re a huge winner. I had 15 rough weeks till last week. Should have won $50,000, but the 4th quarter of Seahawks/Cardinals ruined me. That one quarter cost me $47,000 dollars. Took home $3000 instead of $50,000.

    You’re more likely to win a jackpot on a scratch off card than win a huge GPP.

    Here’s what I learned:

    1. Pay up to play against less people or play single entry. It’s the only way you really give yourself a fighting chance. I waited to week 16 this year and regret not doing it early.

    2. There will always be someone in a huge GPP field that will have something you don’t.

    3. The competition has gotten even harder as the years go on. I was one of the first few hundred people who signed up at Fanduel. I remember the beginning of DFS. The level of competition is unreal compared to what it was at the start years ago.

    4. Save every penny you can from other hobbies, activities if you don’t do this for a living and put it aside from this if you really want to do this for the long haul. I have few other expenses.

    Great advice. Curious, that $50k tourney you should have won, was it a single entry? How many in the field?

  • Unico10

    • 606

      RG Overall Ranking

    @chronoxiong said...

    Landmines. So many landmines for Week 17. David Johnson takes the award for biggest bust of the week. He got hurt but with his salary, that was too difficult to overcome. I played McCoy in the 1PM Only games and he killed me too. Jacquizz Rodgers was a colossal bust and it hurts because it turned out we could’ve played Shaun Draughn, Zenner, or Rex Burkhead. That brings me to Burkhead: He was such a luckbox play! There is no guarantee he would run over 100 yards and 2 TDs against the Ravens defense who have a good ranked defense. Just bs here.

    My other landmines were Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin who really pissed me off. I was hoping for him to do some damage before sitting out but nope, that never happened. I also chased Charles Clay last few games hoping he would produce but that didn’t happen. So yeah, I only won fricken 50/50. All my other games, I finished in the 50s out of 100 range. Not cool. Cash games have been a pain to win for NFL and NBA. The other WTF moment for me was that I cashed in the 1PM Only GPP yet did not win all of my 50/50s for that slate. How does that even happen?

    My downfalls this week:
    Rawls
    Kelce
    Thielen (had only 20% but fell in my two best ones)
    Jordy to a lesser extent.

    Rawls wouldn’t have hurt that bad with DJ and Shady getting hurt and heavily owned Jaquizz bombing,

    But Kelce was the killer as TE (just like DST) is a more concentrated position and GL making up 20-30-40pts…

  • Unico10

    • 606

      RG Overall Ranking

    @cy1985 said...

    I hear you. Listen, if you’re up money this year, you’re a huge winner. I had 15 rough weeks till last week. Should have won $50,000, but the 4th quarter of Seahawks/Cardinals ruined me. That one quarter cost me $47,000 dollars. Took home $3000 instead of $50,000.

    You’re more likely to win a jackpot on a scratch off card than win a huge GPP.

    Here’s what I learned:

    1. Pay up to play against less people or play single entry. It’s the only way you really give yourself a fighting chance. I waited to week 16 this year and regret not doing it early.

    2. There will always be someone in a huge GPP field that will have something you don’t.

    3. The competition has gotten even harder as the years go on. I was one of the first few hundred people who signed up at Fanduel. I remember the beginning of DFS. The level of competition is unreal compared to what it was at the start years ago.

    4. Save every penny you can from other hobbies, activities if you don’t do this for a living and put it aside from this if you really want to do this for the long haul. I have few other expenses.

    Same boat as you last week in the main event… two entries bubbled out (contest paid 17%) but cashed in all other GPP, but before the last 10 minutes of that game I was on track for $15K plus

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @BIF said...

    Actually…sadly you can predict that with EJ Manuel who has played his last football in Buffalo and likely his last in the NFL (I don’t count preseason somewhere next year before he gets cut).

    I played zero Bills because of EJ at QB and zero Steelers because of an equally inept Landry Jones who needed over 4 quarters of play to “get loose” and actually make some NFL quality throws in OT against the worst team in the league.

    I should have faded both games too, but I talked myself in to Shady and Clay, and here’s why. With an inept QB, RB should carry more load, and TE should be a safety valve. Toss in the contrarian value (because most guys are smart enough to not even touch these two games) and your have yourself a sick lil GPP LU. But nope, not me. I don’t get that lucky.

  • cy1985

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Great advice. Curious, that $50k tourney you should have won, was it a single entry? How many in the field?

    It was the FD $300 last weekend. I finished 13th out of 1800 something entries with 1 entry. I had Aaron/Jordy/Clay stack. My one weak part was Hopkins of course. I missed out on a top 6 finish by having Howard in there instead of Ajayi which I swapped out.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @cy1985 said...

    It was the FD $300 last weekend. I finished 13th out of 1800 something entries with 1 entry. I had Aaron/Jordy/Clay stack. My one weak part was Hopkins of course. I missed out on a top 6 finished by having Howard in there instead of Ajayi which I swapped out.

    Yeah, 1800 guys is a lot better than 230k guys to beat huh? I really need to think about paying up to reduce field size. These mega GPPs are no different than buying a scratch off lottery at the gas station.

    But then you see some lucky mutherf take one down, you look at his LU and you’re like “I could put the LU together!” And you’re sucked right back in lol

  • cy1985

    @Unico10 said...

    Same boat as you last week in the main event… two entries bubbled out (contest paid 17%) but cashed in all other GPP, but before the last 10 minutes of that game I was on track for $15K plus

    Russell Wilson and David Johnson are the two DFS players I loathe the most. They hammered my best shot this year in that last 10 minutes last week. I’ll never forget at one moment being in 4th place before the Bengals/Texans game and thinking it’s really gonna happen and then 30 minutes later finding yourself all the way down to 25.

  • cy1985

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Yeah, 1800 guys is a lot better than 230k guys to beat huh? I really need to think about paying up to reduce field size. These mega GPPs are no different than buying a scratch off lottery at the gas station.

    But then you see some lucky mutherf take one down, you look at his LU and you’re like “I could put the LU together!” And you’re sucked right back in lol

    Only pay up if you can afford to. But if you can, it’s better.

    This year I won $500 on a $5 scratchoff card. I also won $100 three times on a $25 game. Shows that some time the prize is better with the lower risk. But the odds are still higher. You pay up to lower the odds. But if you go on a losing streak, you will be in deep red.

    Gotta make it count.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @cy1985 said...

    Only pay up if you can afford to. But if you can, it’s better.

    This year I won $500 on a $5 scratchoff card. I also won $100 three times on a $25 game. Shows that some time the prize is better with the lower risk. But the odds are still higher. You pay up to lower the odds. But if you go on a losing streak, you will be in deep red.

    Gotta make it count.

    Yep. And more pros the higher you move up. More pros, less dead money lol. Oh wait, I’m the dead money haha

  • cy1985

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Yep. And more pros the higher you move up. More pros, less dead money lol. Oh wait, I’m the dead money haha

    Here’s what I feel, the more money an entry is, smaller the field, the less contrarian things you deal with. Yes there is more chalk, but imagine if you focused on one guy who you really liked and went safe the rest of the way. Clay was mine’s last week, 2 touchdowns, I paid up for Hilton and Nelson. He was only 1 percent owned. After two consecutive games with a TD, you knew he’d return some value. He was still min priced at 4500. I didn’t get that. That’s how you win a smaller field tournament or can get ahead. You only need 1 contrarian pick, not 3.

  • BIF

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    I should have faded both games too, but I talked myself in to Shady and Clay, and here’s why. With an inept QB, RB should carry more load, and TE should be a safety valve. Toss in the contrarian value (because most guys are smart enough to not even touch these two games) and your have yourself a sick lil GPP LU. But nope, not me. I don’t get that lucky.

    I could have been wrong just as easily with those guys and others (but I didnt want to kick myself for hoping those QB’s fed my guys) – my Week 17 theory was:

    - pay up for QB in games that mattered (Ryan and Rodgers mostly plus had 1 Stafford contrarian and 1 Cousins)

    - pay down mostly at RB as last year Week 17 lots of no names went over 15-18’points and hit 5x value plus (I had some Ingram and Freeman but also mixed in Burkhead, Zenner, Monty, Crowell, Sproles at 4K looked cheap ugh, McFadden, couple other backups)

    - WR’s is where I went after targets and only pay cheap-mid salaries – Thanks for nothing Thielen but a few others were ok like Hopkins, Pryor, LaFell, even A Robinson would have been good if he caught half the balls he saw.

    - TE is where I also paid up mostly with Ertz on half my lineups, had a couple Ebron or Kelce which sucked and then when I had to go cheap I played CJ Uzomah who got me over 4x on a min salary of 2500.

    - after about 5 weeks of playing defense who would score less that 8 points I finally nailed the top defense – only played Ariz 26 points and KC 10 so that helped me cash.

    Of course I had just enough crap on each lineup, either a Thielen, Kelce or Sproles on every one just so I cash but not much more.

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    Of course I had just enough crap on each lineup, either a Thielen, Kelce or Sproles on every one just so I cash but not much more.

    That’s been my season. Just enough to stop a bigger cash every week. By the end of the day I am hoping for min cashes(which I got with that hail mary with 13 seconds left, and by less than a point. HA!)

  • chronoxiong

    @Unico10 said...

    My downfalls this week:
    Rawls
    Kelce
    Thielen (had only 20% but fell in my two best ones)
    Jordy to a lesser extent.

    Rawls wouldn’t have hurt that bad with DJ and Shady getting hurt and heavily owned Jaquizz bombing,

    But Kelce was the killer as TE (just like DST) is a more concentrated position and GL making up 20-30-40pts…

    Kelce was so highly owned. I had a hunch he was going to bust. Glad I faded him. I don’t understand how Golden Tate was 50-60% owned in my 50/50s. I totally skipped over him. This is why cash games have become difficult now. You fade someone like him and he crushes value, you lose.

  • jstevens2k11

    Speaking of landmines I put up 197 DK points with DJ & Kelce on it, whoof.

  • JimKronlund

    In the milly:
    SaahilSud dropped from 5th to 18th for $4k. He had other smaller winnings but my guess is that he had a losing day. He may have won some $10k contests. If he played in those yesterday.
    Mallen21, smizzle, in the 100’s for $750.
    Chipolte dropped from 14th to 216th for $400.
    Rayofhope 3rd for $75k
    Congrats to jjwd 8th for $10k
    I bet $40 and won $30 for anyone that gives a shit… Yeah I didn’t think so ;>/

  • Colin408

    Put 1 line in the milly maker and put up 199.50 for 3129th. Not bad, I’ll take it. Was a pretty shitty season overall but it ended on a winning note.

  • lloydjv1

    @BIF said...

    Tough pricing for Wild Cards this upcoming weekend

    Good luck trying to make a lineup you love top to bottom
    There just isn’t many cheap value players available
    Bell at 10,300 kills your ability to get more than a couple other studs

    Living and dieing with Steelers this weekend. Been a tough NFL season for me after starting off with some modest wins. Competition is definitely stiff.

  • Unico10

    • 606

      RG Overall Ranking

    @chronoxiong said...

    Kelce was so highly owned. I had a hunch he was going to bust. Glad I faded him. I don’t understand how Golden Tate was 50-60% owned in my 50/50s. I totally skipped over him. This is why cash games have become difficult now. You fade someone like him and he crushes value, you lose.

    I knew we was going to be highly owned. But I’ve been watching the chargers all year and the matchup was just too good I couldn’t believe it would fail.

    Maybe it’s my bias as I am from San Diego but I figured his floor was 20pts

    My best guess is that he got wasted on New Year’s eve and he was just out there as a decoy

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