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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/14
    8:25 PM EST : Houston ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 38.5

    Sunday, 9/17
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -6.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 8 ) at Baltimore ( -8 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Kansas City ( -4.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 7 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -7.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -2.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 2.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -6.5 ) at New Orleans ( 6.5 ) —- T: 54.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 7.5 ) at Carolina ( -7.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 14 ) at Oakland ( -14 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 4.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -4.5 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 14 ) at Seattle ( -14 ) —- T: 43
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( -1.5 ) at Denver ( 1.5 ) —- T: 42
    4:25 PM EST : Washington ( 2.5 ) at LA Rams ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    8:30 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Atlanta ( -2.5 ) —- T: 53.5

    Monday, 9/18
    8:30 PM EST : Detroit ( 5 ) at NY Giants ( -5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this week’s games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • CleverGroom

    @thehazyone said...

    Why DeValve? Would rather go Zach Miller if punting TE.

    Maybe you should familiarize yourself with offseason narratives about SUPERHUMAN LUMINARY Seth DeValve.

  • RockyMtHigh

    Am I the only one who wants to see bif and clevergroom go head to head? 2 of the most insightful guys on here, though I sometimes sense some tension.

  • CleverGroom

    @RockyMtHigh said...

    Am I the only one who wants to see bif and clevergroom go head to head? 2 of the most insightful guys on here, though I sometimes sense some tension.

    I’m just jealous because he took down three GPPs with Tavon Austin and I never will.

  • KindGuy

    @CleverGroom said...

    I’m just jealous because he took down three GPPs with Tavon Austin and I never will.

  • Dadeano860

    @CleverGroom said...

    Why do you think the Cardinals can excel here? Why do you think they’re a better team than the Colts? I’m being serious, now. All they’ve got is greybeards, P2, and a bunch of hollowed out shells.

    I can’t spend a Doug Baldwin or Tyreek Hill salary on a Carson Palmer weapon. It’s madness.

    I put it to you that J.J. Nelson has more upside than Fitz at $3,800, and his floor is comparable. The choice is clear.

    I’m not necessarily convinced either. I think these touts and sharps probably spend more time on this DFS-stuff than me, so that’s where most of this comes from. Vegas has the Cards as the 6th highest team total. Again, on FD, Fitz is $6600, Baldwin is $7600 and Tyfreak is $7200. Wouldn’t Fitz be in the slot where Kupp excelled last week? I am not a Arizona expert, but I thought Nelson would assume a more downfield role, maybe some bubble screens.

    What positional group do you believe is better on the Colts than the Cards? QB- I’ll take Palmer over Brissett. RBs- that’s a wash, both stink. WRs- Hilton/Moncrief is better than Fitz/JJ Nelson – but Brissett neutralizes that. OL- both sub-par. Boone isn’t terrible if Iupati is out. We’ve seen Colts o-line destroy Luck and send Tolzien to the bench after a half.

    DEFENSE- have you looked at the Colts depth chart? They are HORRIBLE. I don’t know if a single Colt would break the Cardinals starting defense (Hankins is a good run stuffer). That is why I think you have to look hard at Fitzgerald. The Cardinals will score points, they should have short fields to work with that’ll help too.

  • KindGuy

    @CleverGroom said...

    ETA: Let me say that once more: J.J. Nelson got 13.3 air yards per target in Week 1. Larry Fitzgerald got 2.5.

    I mean, has next gen stats been proven to help in DFS research? It’s only been out for one year so I’m not sure how helpful it is. Fitzgerald runs high percentage short and intermediate routes so while his yards per catch won’t be high, his catch percentage will. I fully expect him to bounce back after only catching 6 of 13 targets last Sunday.

    If you have used next gen stats successfully, can you give any tips on what to look for?

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    Again, on FD, Fitz is $6600, Baldwin is $7600 and Tyfreak is $7200.

    That is nice, but we’re talking about a low ADOT, low YAC, target-monster, possession receiver who might need some luck to see the RZ more than a couple times. He’s not exactly FD material. Give me Manny Sanders for $200 less. Give me Cobb or Tyrell the Gazelle for $300 less. Give me Hogan for $400 less.

    Indy is a nightmare, don’t get me wrong. I just don’t think the Cards can pretend that they’re anything else themselves. They’re going to struggle to pass protect against any team if they can’t pass protect against the Lions. They’re going to tackle Larry for not a hell of a lot if his air yards stay at 2.5/target. Why would you be excited about him getting that kind of inefficient volume on a crippled offense?

    I can’t point to any major advantages that the Colts have over the Cardinals. I just think Fitz is a terrible play at this point on his merits, and can’t be redeemed by poor personnel opposite. I also think the Colts have enough spirit to come back from a humiliating road loss and hang one on a terrible road team in their home opener. They may not look good on paper, but they’re young, and I already think their defense probably did better against the Rams last week than they could’ve done last year. That unit wasn’t holding anybody to 2.1 YPC (not even Gurley).

    The Colts are going to rise in this spot. Hot take of the week, LOCK IT UP!

  • Messiah717

    Fitz gives you what you know is going to be a ton of targets. How many receivers can you say that’s a stone cold lock?

  • Dadeano860

    @elementasrat said...

    ETA: Let me say that once more: J.J. Nelson got 13.3 air yards per target in Week 1. Larry Fitzgerald got 2.5.

    That’s not accurate. Fitzgerald had 11.5, JJ Nelson had 9.6

    https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards

  • CleverGroom

    @Messiah717 said...

    Fitz gives you what you know is going to be a ton of targets. How many receivers can you say that’s a stone cold lock?

    Brian Hoyer is a lock to lead his team with 50+ snaps and 35+ passing attempts this week. That doesn’t mean you play him.

  • CleverGroom

    @Dadeano860 said...

    That’s not accurate. Fitzgerald had 11.5, JJ Nelson had 9.6

    https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-intended-yards

    Different source, but I’ll defer. I’m sticking to my guns on this call either way. 20 targets to Larry Fitzgerald is a red flag, not an inducement.

  • Messiah717

    @CleverGroom said...

    Brian Hoyer is a lock to lead his team with 50+ snaps and 35+ passing attempts this week. That doesn’t mean you play him.

    I was just saying. As I mentioned earlier in the thread I’m more inclined to play J.J Nelson because of his price and ability elsewhere in the offense.

  • dunbarnation

    @Messiah717 said...

    I was just saying. As I mentioned earlier in the thread I’m more inclined to play J.J Nelson because of his price and ability elsewhere in the offense.

    I think there is a difference of the plays. Nelson is a better play than Fitzgerald on DK due to price and increased opportunity.

    However, I easily take Fitz over Nelson on FD because the prices are closer and, with Brown and DJ out, Fitz will be Palmer’s most trusted weapon in the red zone over Nelson.

  • jhult95

    Which plays are preferred….Baldwin/Chargers D, Hill/ Chiefs D, Diggs/Chiefs D?

  • CleverGroom

    @Messiah717 said...

    I was just saying. As I mentioned earlier in the thread I’m more inclined to play J.J Nelson because of his price and ability elsewhere in the offense.

    Fair enough. And I apologize if I’m being too chippy! Certainly don’t mean hurt any feelings over Larry Fitz talk.

    To be perfectly clear, I think Larry could very well get 15-20 points and everybody could be pleasantly underwhelmed. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher, because I don’t think the team is functional enough to move the ball and score consistently—if they do, it’s probably because J.J. made a play. Can’t see a reason to play Fitz over J.J. at a discount, or other mid-tier target hogs like Keenan Allen or Randall Cobb.

  • CleverGroom

    @elementasrat said...

    I mean, has next gen stats been proven to help in DFS research? It’s only been out for one year so I’m not sure how helpful it is. Fitzgerald runs high percentage short and intermediate routes so while his yards per catch won’t be high, his catch percentage will. I fully expect him to bounce back after only catching 6 of 13 targets last Sunday.

    If you have used next gen stats successfully, can you give any tips on what to look for?

    I don’t have any links to articles handy, but there’s been a lot of buzz in the pods and Tweeter this season about air yards as a predictive stat. It checks out for me intuitively. You may not want those high risk, high reward plays as much in cash, but in GPPs, it’s hard to ratchet your way up to a winning score 8 yards at a time (unless we’re talking rush yards).

  • econbrah11

    Don’t forget that the Colts offense is a mess which most likely means good field position much like the Rams last week. So I think Fitz may have enough targets in the red zone to make me feel comfortable playing him.

  • KindGuy

    @CleverGroom said...

    I don’t have any links to articles handy, but there’s been a lot of buzz in the pods and Tweeter this season about air yards as a predictive stat. It checks out for me intuitively. You may not want those high risk, high reward plays as much in cash, but in GPPs, it’s hard to ratchet your way up to a winning score 8 yards at a time (unless we’re talking rush yards).

    So nothing concrete?

  • Messiah717

    @CleverGroom said...

    Fair enough. And I apologize if I’m being too chippy! Certainly don’t mean hurt any feelings over Larry Fitz talk.

    To be perfectly clear, I think Larry could very well get 15-20 points and everybody could be pleasantly underwhelmed. I don’t think his ceiling is much higher, because I don’t think the team is functional enough to move the ball and score consistently—if they do, it’s probably because J.J. made a play. Can’t see a reason to play Fitz over J.J. at a discount, or other mid-tier target hogs like Keenan Allen or Randall Cobb.

    No problem. I enjoy your work throughout the thread. Yup, I agree on Fitz and honestly it’s not like it’s anything new with him. He gets the targets but you’re left saying I could’ve played a handful of other guys instead and been better off.

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #69

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @CleverGroom said...

    I just don’t get the Larry Fitzgerald love. How can you believe that he benefits from losing both Smoke and DJ? How can you believe that increases his ceiling? The scoring equity for that whole team is in the gutter, way lower than what Vegas is predicting. I don’t believe they’ll be able to consistently sustain drives.

    J.J. Nelson will be getting dump-offs just like Fitz. He has the speed to break them if he can catch somebody unawares. He can also go deep (13.3 air yards/target Week 1), which is not something we’re expecting from Fitz (2.5 air yards/target Week 1). He’s consistently smashed when Smoke has missed games, whereas Fitz has underperformed. He costs $2,700 less on DK.

    I’m sorry, but I don’t think this team is likely to beat the Colts. It’s another dreaded EST morning start. Their TE1 was a week-long DNP and is probably out. They’ve lost both their starting left guard and their starting left tackle, leaving Carson Palmer with replacements to defend his blindside. Carson’s interceptions were kind of fluky, but even so, he didn’t look good—Quandre Diggs doesn’t become the #1 PFF-rated CB in football off nothing but bad bounces. They’ve lost their most important player—the heart and soul of that 2016 offense. Even before DJ went down, they couldn’t block well enough for him to run the ball on THE DETROIT LIONS. Nobody in their secondary could cover a soul, apart from P2.

    Why do you think the Cardinals can excel here? Why do you think they’re a better team than the Colts? I’m being serious, now. All they’ve got is greybeards, P2, and a bunch of hollowed out shells.

    I can’t spend a Doug Baldwin or Tyreek Hill salary on a Carson Palmer weapon. It’s madness.

    I put it to you that J.J. Nelson has more upside than Fitz at $3,800, and his floor is comparable. The choice is clear.

    ETA: Let me say that once more: J.J. Nelson got 13.3 air yards per target in Week 1. Larry Fitzgerald got 2.5.

    oh I have a ton of JJ Nelson in GPPs as well, I think the Colts D is that bad against the psss. they have probably Not only the worst secondary in the league but the worst pass rush

  • JustDFSin

    @econbrah11 said...

    Don’t forget that the Colts offense is a mess which most likely means good field position much like the Rams last week. So I think Fitz may have enough targets in the red zone to make me feel comfortable playing him.

    For cash I’m playing both I can’t see myself fading Fitz and Nelson with those amount of targets.

  • dbullsfan

    • Ranked #69

      RG Tiered Ranking

    One last thing on Fitzgerald and the reason I like him so much this week I think for cash it is fairly safe to say that he has a floor of 6 catches for 50 yd And for GPP I believe he has the upside of 10 catches 100 yd and 2 touchdowns. Unless you believe that the rams offensee is magically better through the air this year then you have to think that even a slow down Palmer can put up decent yards against this colts defense also as bad as the Colts D was in a game that LAR were up the entire game it wasnt like Gurley was smashing so I dont see Arizona just pounding it on the ground, that just isnt Arians style anyway.

  • qnova34

    • 808

      RG Overall Ranking

    So I’ve sort of narrowed down what I consider to be the 5 most important games this week for DK. The problem is there are so many different directions these games can play out. As an exercise to sort of help my roster construction, I wrote out the stances I want to take so that I don’t make any suboptimal rosters by going against my own beliefs. However, I shortly realized I’m still pretty confused on a couple spots. Figured I’d share the “takes” I made and see if anyone can help me out in the spots I’m confused.

    For the first two games, I want to start by saying I think all 4 QBs are going to put up good fantasy games. However, I’m not the type to put up 50+ lineups so I’m going to take a stand on one QB from each game and roll from there.

    NE/NO – BB schemes Michael Thomas out of this game. Bree’s runs this offense through Ginn/Fleener/Ingram/Kamara that will be trailing because….. Brady is going to air it out and it’ll be through Hogan/Gronk/Cooks. The reason I insist this will be a shootout is that the Pats defense just isn’t great outside of its cornerbacks. They have absolutely 0 pass rush to speak of which just isn’t a good thing vs. a guy of Bree’s Caliber. The Saints might be “bad”, but we’re underestimating the genius of Sean Payton and Drew Brees and their ability to surgically dissect defenses (CASSIUS MARSH HELLO???). The Pats have the ability to go shot for shot with Saints in a shootout and have the better personnel to win one, so if it goes that way I think BB will ride it. I really think both the QBs put up good stat lines, but I want Brady. Brady/WR stacks with Kamara or Fleener on the back end sound interesting to me.

    GB/ATL – I’m willing to buy into the hype of #Atlantaregression and #Nitrodefense to an extent here so I may not be as high on this game as others. To me, I see Atlanta force feeding Julio targets here and expect him to deliver on it because there’s about 3 defense I would consider able to reliably defend him in this situation (hint: Not GB). The rest, I’m pretty much off, because I think it’ll be the Julio show and I don’t want to guess which WR is going to convert their 5 targets into a big game. With all that said, I fully expect Green Bay to win this game so I’ll naturally have exposure on that side. People have beat the horse on why Cobb/Montgomery are the plays over here and I agree, but I’ll be interested to see how much slot work Jordy gets this week making him an interesting play. This feels like a 28-21 sort of game where Rodgers and Co. take it. Rodgers/Montgomery/Julio stacks are my favorite target here.

    OAK/NYJ – Blowout city. I’m fully on board with the Marshawn TD narrative… even if he doesn’t have a massive workload you know who’s going in on goal line scenario. I’ll set his floor at 15 carries with upside for around 22 which makes him a safe cash game play for me. I’ll also note that two goal-line TDs are within his range of possibilities IMO. To me, this is literally the best spot Marshawn will be in all year so I want a piece of that. As far as the rest of this game goes, I’m not sure the Oakland defense is going to score any touchdowns as McCown is pretty good with the ball security and I bet the Jets plan to try and slow this game down on the ground. This leaves me pretty confused on what to do about the Oakland passing game. I’ll have exposure to Amari Cooper just because of his insane blowup potential and I really think he’ll be under-owned at this price point on DK. Realistically though this offense is going to run through Carr and he’s probably the safest option to just get exposure to this game making him a really awesome GPP play.

    MIA/SD – This one puzzles me. Early on I was all over Chargers defense (which is great to stack with Melvin), but the more I look and read about it I’m getting a bad feeling. Do I think Cutler takes his shots that could go the wrong way? Yes, however, this Miami ground game is legit with Pouncey back. Add in the questionable linebacker play from the Chargers and I’m worried this turns into a Jay Ajayi day. If they get the ball moving on the ground it sets up some nice play action to Julius Thomas + Kenny Stills. Also with Verrett out, the Chargers are thin at CB and Landry could have a day if Jay is willing to check down. I think Hayward locks down Parker and Bosa/Ingram get pressure, but I’m not sure it’s enough to stop this Miami offense completely. Honestly, they’re a sneaky good offense and if Cutler does play well they’re a lot better than that. Also early in the week I wasn’t really looking at Gordon too hard, but everyone has been touting him so hard and I can’t argue with his price + workload. HOWEVER… The Chargers O-line is perennially horrendous and as many guys smarter than I have pointed out Miami gets torn up on the ground by offensive lines that can get their RBs to the 2nd level (past that scary MIA Dline). So I guess my reservations are whether the Chargers line is improved enough this year to get Gordon some running lanes or if he’s gonna be getting stuffed every other play for 2-3 yard gains. I still see his floor as being good enough for cash games, but I’m worried about his upside for tournaments here. Keenan Allen is game script proof for me because I think either way he’s in for 8+ targets regardless, which he should do enough with for his price tag.

    MIN/PIT – This is the game I looked at and immediately thought had shootout potential. Pittsburgh @ Home, Bell/Brown are matchup proof, Vikings coming off a short week… safe to say I like the Steelers offense in this one. On the Vikings side, Bradford looked AMAZING on MNF. You can say it’s the Saints defense and I won’t argue that definitely added some nice cushion to the stat lines, but he was making amazing throws all game into good coverage. Diggs and Thielen are both legit receivers and I like them going into most matchups, to be honest, one of which is the Steelers shoddy cornerback play. You can talk about the Steelers pass rush, but I think their sacks last week are inflated by Kizer like many have said and let’s not forget Bradford was PFF’s #1 rated QB against pressure last season. Pittsburgh has also had trouble defending good tight ends and have to stay honest against the run with the emergence of Dalvin Cook.

    ^Everything you just read is exactly what I was thinking until I saw the Bradford news. I guess his bad knee hurts enough that they needed to get an MRI on it and Silva said he’s “very concerned”. This nearly scared me off all the Vikings (I had like 70% Thielen), but now it looks like Bradford is going to play so part of me wants to say listen to your gut from earlier and ignore the noise, while the industry is screaming FADE. I had all sorts of stacks on this game so we’ll see.

  • Syzltuth

    Here’s a week 2 breakdown of every game this week. Might have some hidden gems in here or just reinforce some of your thoughts

    https://www.fantasypros.com/2017/09/week-2-primer-analyzing-all-16-games-fantasy-football/amp/

  • Messiah717

    @dbullsfan said...

    One last thing on Fitzgerald and the reason I like him so much this week I think for cash it is fairly safe to say that he has a floor of 6 catches for 50 yd And for GPP I believe he has the upside of 10 catches 100 yd and 2 touchdowns. Unless you believe that the rams offensee is magically better through the air this year then you have to think that even a slow down Palmer can put up decent yards against this colts defense also as bad as the Colts D was in a game that LAR were up the entire game it wasnt like Gurley was smashing so I dont see Arizona just pounding it on the ground, that just isnt Arians style anyway.

    Do what you think is best but for Fitz you have to go back to the start of 2015 for games like that. Plus, even a bad defense knows they can double him and let everyone else beat them. Especially, when they don’t have David Johnson to worry about.

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