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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/13
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( -1 ) at Cincinnati ( 1 ) —- T: 43.5

    Sunday, 9/16
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( 5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 5.5 ) at Washington ( -5.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 0 ) at Tennessee ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2 ) at Green Bay ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( -1 ) at NY Jets ( 1 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at Tampa Bay ( 3 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 8 ) at New Orleans ( -8 ) —- T: 50
    4:05 PM EST : Arizona ( 10.5 ) at LA Rams ( -10.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Detroit ( 3 ) at San Francisco ( -3 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Oakland ( 4.5 ) at Denver ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( -2 ) at Jacksonville ( 2 ) —- T: 45
    8:20 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Dallas ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44

    Monday, 9/17
    8:15 PM EST : Seattle ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • NYGfan1983

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Nah…that would be John BROWN.

  • Tsrobertson

    Golladay or Enunwa???

    Thoughts?

  • AVivier

    I got a fair amount of Dalton at CPT. Nobody likes Andy Dalton.

  • Dunzor

    @Playtaw1n said...

    I feel like the falcons/panthers game is getting extremely overlooked for stacks and it’s a super easy one to make. Ryan w/Julio and maybe Coleman/Ridley/Sanu coming back with cmac.

    I would go the other way and play Cam with Cmac and run it back with Julio as Cam has a way higher ceiling than Ryan does with his rushing ability

  • Cappy

    @AVivier said...

    I got a fair amount of Dalton at CPT. Nobody likes Andy Dalton.

    Primetime Andy Dalton!

  • Dunzor

    @Tsrobertson said...

    Golladay or Enunwa???

    Thoughts?

    Golladay and it’s not close for me…Stafford is a much more proven QB who had a bad game and Golladay still feasted, and the average depth of Enunwa’s targets was extremely low, he got lots of targets but on very short routes which are not high equity

  • KindGuy

    @Trappist1 said...

    That is fine, you chop it with 5-10 people hopefully. :)

    I would not mind that one bit :)

  • AVivier

    @Cappy said...

    Primetime Andy Dalton!

    What could go wrong

  • CleverGroom

    @escot4 said...

    Le’Veon Bell’s fantasy points per touch last year were merely league average for a starting RB. He averaged only 4.0 yards per carry, which was below league average. His production is ENTIRELY volume-driven as far as the run game. His added value comes by being a very good receiver, which is to this point an upgrade over Conner, but Conner caught all 7 of his preseason targets, plus 5-of-6 for 57 yards in week 1, so we’ll see I guess. Obviously he doesn’t have Bell’s history, but it’s entirely possible that people are saying the same thing 2-3 years from now about Conner when some unknown player replaces him in the same crazy high-volume role that’s a fantasy gold mine.

    One of the things I expected would cut against Conner was that they would use him less often in the slot or split out wide. This past week, he had 5 slot and 4 wide snaps out of 78 total, or 11.5%.

    Bell’s rate was 12.9% in 2017. It’s a slight downtick for those higher leverage receiving snaps, but much less of one than I anticipated.

    For comparison, some other RBs’ slot/wide alignments as a proportion of their total snaps in week 1.

    Alvin Kamara: 36.5%
    Chris Thompson: 27.3%
    Ezekiel Elliott: 8.5%
    David Johnson: 8.3% (down from 20.4% in 2016—this is heckin’ terrifying)
    Dion Lewis: 8.1%
    Saquon Barkley: 7.3%
    Todd Gurley: 5.1% (explanatory tweet)
    Leonard Fournette: 4.8%
    Melvin Gordon: 4.8%
    Kareem Hunt: 2.5%
    Joe Mixon: 2.3%

    11.5% is a lot, y’all. Especially if you’re literally the only RB getting offensive snaps for your team (Conner is the only RB in the league for whom this was true last week).

  • CleverGroom

    @AVivier said...

    What could go wrong

  • jsteele1020

    OK guys. I am figuring this out…slowly. I am getting the hang of it. But here’s the thing. The experts are many times wrong. If it were that easy everybody would just come here, fill out the lineups with all the popular picks and win every week. But it doesn’t work that way. This weekend some team who nobody thinks will win, probably big. My gut is saying Buffalo. At home, west coast team, and a rookie QB with a huge arm. What are your thoughts?

  • Cappy

    @AVivier said...

    What could go wrong

    This showdown slate was too mind boggling for me. It is unreasonable to think that BOTH of these QB’s have good enough games. Both are on a short week. Flacco is on the road against a solid defense. Dalton is against one of the best pass defenses in the league.

    I actually don’t think game is close, or even high scoring. I see one of these teams winning 27-14. I just have no idea which one will show up.

  • Cappy

    @jsteele1020 said...

    OK guys. I am figuring this out…slowly. I am getting the hang of it. But here’s the thing. The experts are many times wrong. If it were that easy everybody would just come here, fill out the lineups with all the popular picks and win every week. But it doesn’t work that way. This weekend some team who nobody thinks will win, probably big. My gut is saying Buffalo. At home, west coast team, and a rookie QB with a huge arm. What are your thoughts?

    There is enough information on the internet and probably in your head for you to come up with what you feel could be a good play.

    Buffalo is an interesting spot for sure. The talent between teams in the NFL is not really that drastic and LA did not look very good in week 1 either. Nobody finds ways to lose games that they should win like the Chargers. If the Bills being bad this year does anything for our perception of the organization, it should be that Sean McDermott may be a good coach just for the sake that he took a lot of these dudes to the playoffs last year. However, I don’t think the Bills are capable of beating anybody by pick points.

  • Cappy

    For those of you looking to stack Atlanta v. Carolina … They are 1-9 when it comes to hitting the over in their last 10 match ups. Only once in those 10 games has each team scored 21+.

  • Dunzor

    @Cappy said...

    For those of you looking to stack Atlanta v. Carolina … They have had 1 game of their last 10. Only once in those 10 games have each team scored 21+.

    Ya I don’t love the stack overall, but for the guy that said he wanted to stack Ryan / Julio / CMAC I was just saying that I prefer Cam in that stack to Ryan because Ryan’s ceiling just feels so low

  • timgodd375

    What are thoughts on Mixon this week (price not an issue)? What do you think his stat line will look like CG??

  • Cappy

    May I interest you in one of the cheapest game stacks on the board? One that would open up your lineup to just about any combination of players that you please? A game where the over has hit in 5 of the last 7? A game that has given us game totals of 61, 58, 50, 47. 59 just in their last 7 games? A game that probably 90% of the field will not even consider in their lineups?

  • badtrip

    Yes Cappy, please continue.

  • mathewsmarner

    that photo and that line….so professional

  • CleverGroom

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I’d like to toss a Jonnu Smith dart this week. Last week I had the wrong Seattle TE. Do I have the wrong Tenn TE this week? Smith outsnapped Stocker 40-25 but only 3-2 in targets.It’s hard getting that 5 player stack from the games I like without paying down somewhere. Obviously all the low priced darts have flaws, Smiths being the Tenn passing game. Any advice would be appreciated

    Luke Stocker is a blocking specialist. 19 blocking snaps and 6 routes run last week.

    MyCole Pruitt is probably just around for depth.

    Anthony Firkser is the guy to watch. It would be a huge upset if he passed Jonnu Smith in the passing role (and maybe even a surprise if he dresses), but if you’re looking for the Will Dissly analogy, it’s Firkser.

    Firkser had 69 routes run to 54 blocking snaps in the preseason. He was quiet for the most part, but exploded in week 3 against a historically tough PIT TE defense for 5-68-1 on 6 targets. 99-1559-14 at Harvard. Came into the league 2017 as a UDFA and snuck onto the Titans’ 53 this year.

    He’s virtually indistinguishable from Cameron Brate at this point in Brate’s career. Both from Harvard, similar college production, both UDFAs, both took a year to catch on with a roster spot, similar measurables (notably Firkser is giving up 3” to Brate, but he’s thiccer).

    Jonnu should be the guy, but I don’t suppose it’s impossible for Firkser.

  • KindGuy

    @Cappy said...

    May I interest you in one of the cheapest game stacks on the board? One that would open up your lineup to just about any combination of players that you please? A game where the over has hit in 5 of the last 7? A game that has given us game totals of 61, 58, 50, 47. 59 just in their last 7 games? A game that probably 90% of the field will not even consider in their lineups?

    HOU @ _TEN?

  • Cappy

    @elementasrat said...

    HOU @ _TEN?

    Good thinking, but no ……………….. Dolphins and the Jets.

  • hodge50

    Yes. It is why I jokingly said to delete. Sorry my lol lost the effect.

  • kdsdawg

    @Playtaw1n said...

    Coleman/Ridley/Sanu coming

    Why in the world would you play Ridley..or even Sanu..play Julio and CMC and call it a day

  • mike42

    @CleverGroom said...

    But, but…Doug Marrone said he doesn’t play games in the media with injury news! You really think someone would do that, just go into a press conference and tell lies?

    I agree. Fournette probably doesn’t play. Marrone also mentioned a desire to get Corey Grant more involved, but—importantly—followed that up by admitting it wouldn’t be “much more.” Shame he’s priced up already on DK.

    Peterson does the same thing, just with game plans. He said the same type of things this week that he said b4 Minny playoff game. Short, efficient type throws to get Foles going. He’s lying again. That playoff game was the most aggressive play calling I’ve seen since the greatest show on turf. The thing is you don’t get Foles going with 3 yd outs to Ertz, he ONLY gets going with big plays. Love that they are playing TB w extra time to prepare after laying an egg on O. I’m going to WAY over the field on Foles and especially Wallace. Feel extremely confident Philly puts up 30 plus mostly by attacking the TB secondary.

    I think figuring out which coaches lie and which coaches tell it like it is is Huge for DFS. Tomlin is pretty straight forward and will tell u when they are going to pound the rock. Pederson just told you to go over the field on Philly’s passing game in his own special way.

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