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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    Thursday, Sept 12th
    8:20 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 6.5 ) at Carolina ( -6.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, Sept 15th
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( -4.5 ) at Washington ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Green Bay ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -2.5 ) at NY Giants ( 2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -1.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -3 ) at Detroit ( 3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Houston ( -8.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 13 ) at Baltimore ( -13 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -14.5 ) at Miami ( 14.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -9 ) at Oakland ( 9 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Chicago ( (Pick) ) at Denver ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3 ) at LA Rams ( -3 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( (Pick) ) at Atlanta ( (Pick) ) —- T: 51

    Monday, Sept 16th
    8:15 PM EST : Cleveland ( -1 ) at NY Jets ( 1 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • deeebo

    need some lower WR plays between 5-6.5k ish. only WR i have right now is Williams on Oak. Would marvin jones and gallup be good cash plays this week?

  • mike42

    @FunkMac said...

    In my initial builds I’m heavy on Fournette.

    I would think the Jags are gonna pound the rock as much as possible to protect the mustachioed rookie. The Texans run defense looked shoddy and allowed the Saints to rush for 7 yards a clip, and they are coming off an emotional, tough road loss. And now a divisional game on a short week.

    And even in a possible negative game script, Lenny should have a decent floor with the 4 + catches he should get in a trailing situation. Plus, after his dud last week I would assume his ownership will be down. Any thoughts?

    No reason to fade him. You learned what you needed to learn about him last week, he’s going to a bell cow back and active in the receiving game. Low ownership, not a bad matchup but not a good one either. Biggest problem is the o-line and Houston being able to stack the box. He’s going to need a long run to pay off but that’s what he does.

  • uptowndirt

    @mike42 said...

    He’s not listed on DK anywhere. WHo is he?

    WR that lit up preseason for the Raiders, got cut then went to the Jags practice squad and came back to Raiders with a guaranteed deal after AB was released.

    https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/raiders/raiders-happy-keelan-doss-now-back-fold-after-antonio-brown-saga

  • mike42

    @monarch said...

    The Raiders will not stop running or alter their style of play. This is a team still rebuilding and are not going to revert to Carr dropping back and just slinging it 50 times because that’s not where this teams strength lies and is exactly what KC wants.

    And the O line is better than people think. Did anyone see the final play of the game where Gruden called a WR screen to Tyrell William’s? Kolton Miller, 6’9 360 pounds sprinted to the Denver CB and got him a pancake. He is finally healthy after playing hurt all last year and Trent Brown stifled Von Miller.

    Agree. Good O-line and running game is the best way to slow down KC’s O. BB road games for KC, BB home games for OAK. I think OAK hangs throughout this one.

  • mike42

    @jcotdl said...

    yeah, i just have a weird feeling about that game and specifically about fading it 100%. I may go a little off-script with Rodgers naked or Cousins/ WRs stacks. I am oddly interested in this game for sure..

    I think everyone who keeps mentioning this game is subconsciously doing so because of the OT shootout tie game from last year between these 2 at GB. Both of these teams got much better at the defensive end and both are going to run the ball more this year. It feels like a great game to fade in 2019, but the 2018 game was filled with fantasy goodness.

  • econbrah11

    The Chiefs will be up 14-0 in no time and the Raiders will abandon the run quickly imo. There are better plays than Jacobs.

  • NDNole

    McCoy is the guy im rolling with this week. Only a matter of time before he goes off. I will be early on him.

  • monarch

    @NDNole said...

    McCoy is the guy im rolling with this week. Only a matter of time before he goes off. I will be early on him.

    He is a good play

  • thedkexperience

    @deeebo said...

    need some lower WR plays between 5-6.5k ish. only WR i have right now is Williams on Oak. Would marvin jones and gallup be good cash plays this week?

    On the risk of exposing my entire lineup over 3 pages, I have Gallup locked and loaded.

    Also, I don’t think the new WR in Washington is a fluke. He’s a no name but the guy was a 3rd round pick. It’s quite possible that he is both good and in the game plan regularly.

    Side note … one thing that you can glean from the games is who is involved early in the game script. For example, I clowned the Denver OC for running a TE reverse to start the game but that also said to me that he made it a priority to have Noah Fant in his game plan. It didn’t work out in the end, but the script is often the best look into the offensive coaching staff’s mind.

    I say this because … (looks up name) … Terry McLaurin … (double checks) … yeah that guy seems to have been featured early in his team’s plans. Also, Hollywood Brown, despite a low snap count, got his looks early and often in a reasonably close game. All of these guys are in their team’s plans. Strike while the iron is hot.

  • monarch

    Kirk and Fitz saw a combined 25 targets last week. They should see similar volume at Baltimore and are cheap. MIA has some value guys like Devante Parker at 4.1k. I’d be looking for high volume guys on teams projected to be throwing a lot in the second half.

  • AVivier

    @mike42 said...

    I think everyone who keeps mentioning this game is subconsciously doing so because of the OT shootout tie game from last year between these 2 at GB. Both of these teams got much better at the defensive end and both are going to run the ball more this year. It feels like a great game to fade in 2019, but the 2018 game was filled with fantasy goodness.

    I agree with this. It’s hard to see a scenario either QB ends up QB1 even if it had a decent game script, which it doesn’t. Lamar, Mahomes, Ben, Brees, Allen, Dak and Brady (if somehow the storm doesn’t hit) and maybe a couple others all have much larger ceilings imo, and ownership doesn’t really matter much at this spot.

    Thielen is not a great play, but he is in play. He has a good history against GB. Little interest in Diggs until he shows he’s healthy, his injuries have a history of lingering.

    Adams also not a great play, but always in play. He has 4 straight games with a touchdown against Minn, but none of them were slate breakers. MVS is very playable here, but that’s about where it ends.

    Neither of GBs RBs are appealing. Cook did end up in somewhat of a timeshare that was mentioned going into Week 1. He is overpriced and will be overowned, but is good enough that he can certainly still get there.

  • AVivier

    @monarch said...

    Kirk and Fitz saw a combined 25 targets last week. They should see similar volume at Baltimore and are cheap. MIA has some value guys like Devante Parker at 4.1k. I’d be looking for high volume guys on teams projected to be throwing a lot in the second half.

    No Jimmy Smith this week for Baltimore.

  • deeebo

    @thedkexperience said...

    On the risk of exposing my entire lineup over 3 pages, I have Gallup locked and loaded.

    Also, I don’t think the new WR in Washington is a fluke. He’s a no name but the guy was a 3rd round pick. It’s quite possible that he is both good and in the game plan regularly.

    Side note … one thing that you can glean from the games is who is involved early in the game script. For example, I clowned the Denver OC for running a TE reverse to start the game but that also said to me that he made it a priority to have Noah Fant in his game plan. It didn’t work out in the end, but the script is often the best look into the offensive coaching staff’s mind.

    I say this because … (looks up name) … Terry McLaurin … (double checks) … yeah that guy seems to have been featured early in his team’s plans. Also, Hollywood Brown, despite a low snap count, got his looks early and often in a reasonably close game. All of these guys are in their team’s plans. Strike while the iron is hot.

    damn yeah terry m had 7 targets last week – guess he made he most of them. he has no picture on fd haha. but had 21 pts last week. hows the dallas secondary though? maybe if skins are playing from behind he will get his targets

  • Pandamonious

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    @thedkexperience said...

    Also, Hollywood Brown, despite a low snap count, got his looks early and often in a reasonably close game.

    Yeah, Brown only played 14 snaps, but had 5 targets. That’s a pretty significant share when just breaking down to when he was on the field . Haven’t seen the game, but what it tells me is he’s a focal point of their game plans. It wasn’t just a fluke. He has a specific purpose on the field. Obviously he won’t have week 1 results every week, but the opportunity will be there.

  • Pandamonious

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    @monarch said...

    Kirk and Fitz saw a combined 25 targets last week. They should see similar volume at Baltimore and are cheap. MIA has some value guys like Devante Parker at 4.1k. I’d be looking for high volume guys on teams projected to be throwing a lot in the second half.

    Everyone got targets on AZ. Fuller threw 54 times. KeeSean Johnson also had 10 targets, Byrd had 7. Point being, if AZ gets down like one would expect, all the WR’s could be in play. Byrd specifically. 3K and may fit the big play burner mentality. The guy ran a 4.28 40 on his pro day a couple years ago.

  • BIF

    My Week 2 reminder – nobody is as good OR as bad as they were last week – don’t over analyze a one game stat line – go watch the games !!

    80% of the names mentioned about snaps, targets, etc.., were all extremely situational.

    Hooper got about 6 of his 9 targets in last 20 minutes when Falcons were just trying to get off a Zero and Vikings were trying to wind down the clock with a softer defense. He would have had 3-5 targets max in a normal game script.

    Hockenson just played a game that went 70 minutes and Det had about 80 offensive plays – what happens when they run a more normal 55 this week ?

    Think people…..please….this is your best opportunity to win money ALL YEAR; it’s overreaction week – don’t be part of the problem !

    Watch games and read through the play by play stats for ever player you are considering – see the down distance and score of when your player got his touches and targets !!

  • thedkexperience

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, Brown only played 14 snaps, but had 5 targets. That’s a pretty significant share when just breaking down to when he was on the field . Haven’t seen the game, but what it tells me is he’s a focal point of their game plans. It wasn’t just a fluke. He has a specific purpose on the field. Obviously he won’t have week 1 results every week, but the opportunity will be there.

    Very, very well said. This is what I was talking about a dozen pages back. Target and snap charts can be very important but their is some nuance to both. I’ve started listening to my weekly podcasts and essentially all of them are doing the “but but but 14 snaps” thing without context.

  • AVivier

    @Pandamonious said...

    Everyone got targets on AZ. Fuller threw 54 times. KeeSean Johnson also had 10 targets, Byrd had 7. Point being, if AZ gets down like one would expect, all the WR’s could be in play. Byrd specifically. 3K and may fit the big play burner mentality. The guy ran a 4.28 40 on his pro day a couple years ago.

    Fwiw, Crabtree is expected to play this week. Not sure exactly who he’ll take PT from, but likely Byrd or Johnson.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    My Week 2 reminder – nobody is as good OR as bad as they were last week – don’t over analyze a one game stat line – go watch the games !!

    80% of the names mentioned about snaps, targets, etc.., were all extremely situational.

    Hooper got about 6 of his 9 targets in last 20 minutes when Falcons were just trying to get off a Zero and Vikings were trying to wind down the clock with a softer defense. He would have had 3-5 targets max in a normal game script.

    Hockenson just played a game that went 70 minutes and Det had about 80 offensive plays – what happens when they run a more normal 55 this week ?

    Think people…..please….this is your best opportunity to win money ALL YEAR; it’s overreaction week – don’t be part of the problem !

    Watch games and read through the play by play stats for ever player you are considering – see the down distance and score of when your player got his touches and targets !!

    There is no GIF I can find that can accurately sum up how good this advice is.

    So here are some puppies.

  • Pandamonious

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    @AVivier said...

    Fwiw, Crabtree is expected to play this week. Not sure exactly who he’ll take PT from, but likely Byrd or Johnson.

    Good point. Overlooked the return of Crabtree. Byrd played more snaps, but Johnson saw more targets. Who knows. Either would be fairly deep darts to begin with.

  • mike42

    @AVivier said...

    No Jimmy Smith this week for Baltimore.

    Don’t forget that DJ is also basically a WR for ARZ too. He’s going to have 10 reception games this year. Not sure it’s this week, although I’m not discounting him, but he’s going to smash soon.

  • Pandamonious

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    @BIF said...

    Hockenson just played a game that went 70 minutes and Det had about 80 offensive plays – what happens when they run a more normal 55 this week ?

    As someone who follows the Lions a bit Hockenson’s debut came as no shock to me. He is supposed to be and will remain a focal point. He’s at worst the Lions #3 receiving option, and arguably #2, behind Golladay. I don’t believe he had a target and I’m very certain he didn’t have a reception in OT, so the extra minutes and to an extent extra plays could be argued as negligible when considering his performance as a whole.

    With that said, you’re right that the Lions won’t have as many plays this week. The game plan could change a bit, and I wouldn’t expect Stafford to throw it 45 times again. The Chargers will probably be better prepared for him then the Cardinals were. Throw in the likelihood that Hockenson would be chalky this week it makes for a good ownership fade. I just don’t think there was anything Fluky about his results nor were they inflated as much by the length of the game or amount of plays run. 6-8 targets for him on a weekly basis should be expected.

  • AVivier

    Michael Thomas Vs Rams last year:

    12-211-1
    4-36-0

    First game was without Talib, second game Talib played. 1 game samples only mean so much, but that’s pretty stark.

  • mike42

    J. Washington fits the profile from last week’s best WR’s. The guy stealing snaps from him had the worse game I’ve ever seen a WR play and he is playing the team that made Ross look like an all-pro. I still like Conner to be a big part of the game plan but Sea’s secondary is really bad and it only takes 1-2 plays for Washington to smash.

  • TJRhodes

    @AVivier said...

    Michael Thomas Vs Rams last year:

    12-211-1
    4-36-0

    First game was without Talib, second game Talib played. 1 game samples only mean so much, but that’s pretty stark.

    Bring it back with Cooks for the revenge narrative.

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