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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, Sept 12th
    8:20 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 6.5 ) at Carolina ( -6.5 ) —- T: 50

    Sunday, Sept 15th
    1:00 PM EST : Dallas ( -4.5 ) at Washington ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 2.5 ) at Green Bay ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -2.5 ) at NY Giants ( 2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -1.5 ) at Cincinnati ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -3 ) at Detroit ( 3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Houston ( -8.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 13 ) at Baltimore ( -13 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -14.5 ) at Miami ( 14.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( -9 ) at Oakland ( 9 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Chicago ( (Pick) ) at Denver ( (Pick) ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3 ) at LA Rams ( -3 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( (Pick) ) at Atlanta ( (Pick) ) —- T: 51

    Monday, Sept 16th
    8:15 PM EST : Cleveland ( -1 ) at NY Jets ( 1 ) —- T: 46

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • thedkexperience

    @mike42 said...

    So since I have been on the forum the last 3 years I have told everyone to play the PIT RB after a loss at least a 1/2 dozen times. I have been right every single time and I “think” the PIT RB ended up being a must every time. Tomlin goes to the running game after a humiliating loss EVERY time and Pit is not splitting carries it appears this year. Play Conner. He’s going to get 30 touches behind an elite O-line in a matchup that most will fade. Cash and GPP, PLAY CONNER.

    30-35 touches
    25 carries for 100 plus yds
    5-8 receptions
    150 plus total yards
    1-2 TD’s

    This makes a lot of sense. Pittsburgh at home always seems like a thing but when I do that I usually end up with Roethlisberger. Maybe it should have been Conner. He was in my early group of maybes so thanks for the info. It certainly makes sense the more I think about it.

    Side note … aside from Jacobs there were literally zero RBs in the main who seemed like great values at first glance. Last week it seemed like there were 15.

  • AVivier

    @AVivier said...

    SF WR snap counts (out of 68)

    60 Deebo
    50 Goodwin
    26 James
    17 Bourne
    2 Pettis

    There’s one sub 4K WR that didn’t go off last week, won’t be heavily owned and should have opportunity.

    Bengals WR snap counts (out of 77)

    69 Willis
    63 Ross
    61 Boyd
    11 Erickson
    8 Cooper

    Was not expecting that when looking it up, but there’s another sub 4K WR with opportunity and splash play potential that will be sub 1%.

  • kdsdawg

    @mike42 said...

    So since I have been on the forum the last 3 years I have told everyone to play the PIT RB after a loss at least a 1/2 dozen times. I have been right every single time and I “think” the PIT RB ended up being a must every time. Tomlin goes to the running game after a humiliating loss EVERY time and Pit is not splitting carries it appears this year. Play Conner. He’s going to get 30 touches behind an elite O-line in a matchup that most will fade. Cash and GPP, PLAY CONNER.

    30-35 touches
    25 carries for 100 plus yds
    5-8 receptions
    150 plus total yards
    1-2 TD’s

    I think Ben lights it up…his home/away splits are real…embarrassed last week..coming home..he and JuJu and Conner will go off, one of those shoot outs nobody expects because its Seattle

  • thedkexperience

    @kdsdawg said...

    I think Ben lights it up…his home/away splits are real…embarrassed last week..coming home..he and JuJu and Conner will go off, one of those shoot outs nobody expects because its Seattle

    No, those splits WERE real. He fixed his splits the last 2 seasons. Don’t fall into Ben is good at home and bad on the road trap. While it’s still possible it’s no longer a trend.

  • thedkexperience

    Here are Ben’s splits last season.

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RoetBe00/splits/2018/

    Home – 2364, 19/7
    Road – 2765, 15/9

    That’s pretty much a wash. The year before was the same thing. He is slightly better at home but we are talking about 3 to 4 points of QB rating which is negligible. The years before that were different.

  • speskowi

    @mike42 said...

    So since I have been on the forum the last 3 years I have told everyone to play the PIT RB after a loss at least a 1/2 dozen times. I have been right every single time and I “think” the PIT RB ended up being a must every time. Tomlin goes to the running game after a humiliating loss EVERY time and Pit is not splitting carries it appears this year. Play Conner. He’s going to get 30 touches behind an elite O-line in a matchup that most will fade. Cash and GPP, PLAY CONNER.

    30-35 touches
    25 carries for 100 plus yds
    5-8 receptions
    150 plus total yards
    1-2 TD’s

    This 1000000%

  • econbrah11

    @AVivier said...

    Bengals WR snap counts (out of 77)

    69 Willis
    63 Ross
    61 Boyd
    11 Erickson
    8 Cooper

    Was not expecting that when looking it up, but there’s another sub 4K WR with opportunity and splash play potential that will be sub 1%.

    I raise you with Mecole Hardman (KC Chiefs). He played 78% of the snaps in week 1 and everyone will be on Kelce and Watkins.

  • AVivier

    Steelers WR snap counts (out of 67)

    60 Juju
    60 Moncrief
    46 Switzer
    35 Washington
    24 Johnson
    7 Holton

    What a mess by them. Leave Juju at slot and have Washington and Moncrief outside. Anyway Moncrief is 4k and will be in play for a low owned WR with high upside if nothing changes from week 1.

  • AVivier

    @econbrah11 said...

    I raise you with Mecole Hardman (KC Chiefs). He played 78% of the snaps in week 1 and plus everyone will be on Kelce and Watkins.

    For sure. We’re about to get hammered with him by touts for the next few days so I don’t expect him to be super low owned, but he’s one of the better plays on the slate.

  • theIrrigator

    • 475

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @econbrah11 said...

    Because he’s a rookie TE who perfomed well in his first start in an subpar offense which averaged only 1.4 passing TD per game last year. I’m not chasing his points in week 2.

    Oh okay yeah I guess if you didnt play him last week it would feel like chasing. He’s 3k, averages a 22% target share and is a beast. Now I dont think he will have 28 DK points again but 15-20 is a pretty realistic outcome

  • OttawaCityMadman

    @parrothead112 said...

    Hockenson, Brady, Pats D

    Yes love what i saw from Hock. This will be the Last week he will be at around 3000$

  • AVivier

    Tyler Gabriel played 92% of snaps and he’s 3.7k at Denver. There’s a number of big play potential WRs that are sub 4k that will have low ownership.

  • RatedDAL

    Of everything I saw in Week 1, the one I’m most buying is how awful the Giants D is and is going to be. I’m going with a lot of naked Josh Allen and maybe a little with stacks of Brown, Beasley, and some Singletary (That guy definitely needs more touches.)

  • thedkexperience

    People gotta calm down a bit on some of the “this random guy got a lot of snaps” stuff. Yes, there is something to be learned from it but that’s all it is, a small piece of the pie. If a guy sucks, and many of the guys listed aren’t exactly game breaking football players, he still sucks.

  • depalma13

    The Giants just gave up 2 TDS to tight ends. Tommy Sweeney had 2 catches for 35 yards for the Bills against a very solid Jets defense. Now he gets to run around in tight end heaven.

    Lock and load.

  • thedkexperience

    @RatedDAL said...

    Of everything I saw in Week 1, the one I’m most buying is how awful the Giants D is and is going to be. I’m going with a lot of naked Josh Allen and maybe a little with stacks of Brown, Beasley, and some Singletary (That guy definitely needs more touches.)

    Buffalo D is in play as well. Did you know that in 2018 the Giants called a higher percentage of pass plays at home than any other team?

    Side note – Pat Shurmur is an awful coach.

  • Ace15

    First glance, seems like a 4 TD week for Michel tbh. Love Kittle this week, right side of variance and he smashes last week, hope people are off him and flock to TJ. Allen/Ekler vs DET looks tasty as well. Also, stack Rams/Saints hope for repeat of Last year anyone?

  • thedkexperience

    @depalma13 said...

    The Giants just gave up 2 TDS to tight ends. Tommy Sweeney had 2 catches for 35 yards for the Bills against a very solid Jets defense. Now he gets to run around in tight end heaven.

    Lock and load.

    Jason Witten scores against the Giants essentially every time he plays them in Dallas. Not saying you’re wrong, cause yes they suck, but there was a trend there.

  • AVivier

    @thedkexperience said...

    People gotta calm down a bit on some of the “this random guy got a lot of snaps” stuff. Yes, there is something to be learned from it but that’s all it is, a small piece of the pie. If a guy sucks, and many of the guys listed aren’t exactly game breaking football players, he still sucks.

    Since that’s directed at me, I’m just going through teams to see what’s out there for cheap, preferably fast, low owned WRs with starters time. I’ll keep the research to me.

  • mike42

    @kdsdawg said...

    I think Ben lights it up…his home/away splits are real…embarrassed last week..coming home..he and JuJu and Conner will go off, one of those shoot outs nobody expects because its Seattle

    I got no issues with a pit game stack or dare I say, an onslaught, Maybe pit goes up 21-7 at 1/2 and Russ does his thing in the second 1/2. The issue I have is if Pit goes run heavy, as I suspect they will, and Sea goes run heavy as they always seem to do, it should lead to less overall snaps. Two ways PIT could come out, attacking with the 2 minute O or jamming it down Sea’s throat. In these situations (after a humiliating loss), Tomlin has gone with the latte every time.

    Pit had some breakdowns in the secondary but was tough on the run Vs NE, I’d guess that they end being a pass funnel type D this year. What I’m saying is using a Russ/Lockett (or Deebo) / Conner type stack might not be the worse idea. Russ seems to always bring his team back if they fall behind big early and they are playing the noon game which has seemingly always led SEA to come out of the gate slow. I have vivid memories of SEA starting slow on the east coast a few times and rallying back to make it a game or win. I think the 30-27 game Vs carolina was a prime example of a game that started that way and ended with a lot of fantasy goodness. CG might be able to back me up on this one.

  • RatedDAL

    @thedkexperience said...

    Buffalo D is in play as well. Did you know that in 2018 the Giants called a higher percentage of pass plays at home than any other team?

    Side note – Pat Shurmur is an awful coach.

    Good point. Buffalo D definitely in play, any D against the Giants QB is a solid play.

    Buffalo doesn’t leave the state of NY until Week 5 and only once until Week 10. Sleeper wildcard team.

  • Smallchimp

    @AVivier said...

    Since that’s directed at me, I’m just going through teams to see what’s out there for cheap, preferably fast, low owned WRs with starters time. I’ll keep the research to me.

    I’d rather hear you give snap shares than DK say how every play is bad and not give his own lol. People like him and CG give confident takes, but they’re far too dismissive of alternative opinions.

  • depalma13

    @thedkexperience said...

    Jason Witten scores against the Giants essentially every time he plays them in Dallas. Not saying you’re wrong, cause yes they suck, but there was a trend there.

    Jarwin was 3/39/1 Witten was 3/15/1.

    I will gladly take Sweeney at 5/50/1 for 2600

  • thedkexperience

    @AVivier said...

    Since that’s directed at me, I’m just going through teams to see what’s out there for cheap, preferably fast, low owned WRs with starters time. I’ll keep the research to me.

    No, no man. It’s totally appreciated. I just wanted to warn some people because we’ve all seen folks say “well WR X gets 60 snaps so he’s guaranteed for X” when in reality the guy is a blocking TE or the clear 3rd WR.

    Also it works in reverse when people say that a guy like Hollywood Brown was a fluke because of a low snap count when in reality the game flow probably cost him 20-30 snaps.

    Sorry if it came off as dickish. Wasn’t my intention. Just wanted to throw a bit of context out there for them.

  • Dfspacman

    Turned out lineups I had even before listen to podcasts and articles were a lot better than after lol

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