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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/17
    8:20 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6 ) at Cleveland ( -6 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, 9/20
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 5.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -5.5 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 8.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( -8.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -7.5 ) at NY Jets ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Indianapolis ( -3 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( -5.5 ) at Miami ( 5.5 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 3.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 5.5 ) at Green Bay ( -5.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6.5 ) at Dallas ( -6.5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 11 ) at Tennessee ( -11 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 5.5 ) at Chicago ( -5.5 ) —- T: 43
    4:05 PM EST : Washington ( 7 ) at Arizona ( -7 ) —- T: 45
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -8.5 ) at LA Chargers ( 8.5 ) —- T: 50
    4:25 PM EST : Baltimore ( -6.5 ) at Houston ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53
    8:20 PM EST : New England ( 4 ) at Seattle ( -4 ) —- T: 44

    Monday, 9/21
    8:15 PM EST : New Orleans ( -5.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 5.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • NDNole

    @thedkexperience said...

    All these teams are closer than most “experts” think. Don’t even get me started on “experts” who ignore home field advantage.

    Yup, I like to try and identify those slept on teams and players. I remember fading gurley when he was blazing through the nfl. Week after week I said he wouldnt keep it up and missed all that. From then on I said I’d never do that again. Teams are much closer than people think and so are players when given enough opportunity.

  • Supanice

    @Njsum1 said...

    Anyone else think Tom Brady is kinda washed. Not all the way washed, yet pretty much washed. Not just overreacting after last week. Saints are a good Def. Just thought he was kinda washed last year, and even a bit the year before that.

    Ain’t no shame in it, he’s old for a QB, real old. I’m not saying that he won’t light up some bad defenses or flash some big games, I just don’t think he can do it consistently at 43. It’s amazing he’s done it this long.

    I feel like in sports, the names of former great players resonate so strongly that fans/much of mainstream media, just can’t comprehend how a once great player just isn’t great anymore.

    Edit…he’s playing Carolina this week, so it’s likely this is one of his big weeks.

    I am biased but it was his first week in a new offense against a super bowl contender @home during a pandemic. They are going to get better every single week and be a contender.

    The more I play NFL DFS the more I realize 90% of it is just the team gameplan not really individual effort. You see Rivers leave and the new Chargers plan doesn’t involve a lot of RB screens, Rivers goes to Indy and the RBs get 10 catches. If the Vikings get up at all they will run it 40 times, Julio on the bench in the red zone.

    I wrote in my notes from the past 2 seasons that for week 2-3 object in motion tend to stay in motion so my pool this week will be 90% guys who blew up week 1 or guys who are facing defenses that gave up big games week 1. Currently going with Allen/Murray then locking in henry/chiefsrb/hopkins/amari/bucs and I don’t care how chalky it is.

  • superjon

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    I’ve never really tracked his picks but apparently Beer’s Beast picks tank a lot. But here is one reason why I’m hoping the “even a broken clock is right twice a day” scenario is in play

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlZvgdcIXvI

    A man among boys

    Last season, I think he had 1 Beast that actually did well.

    His other picks tend to do well. I typically don’t fade any of his touts completely.

  • thedkexperience

    @NDNole said...

    Yup, I like to try and identify those slept on teams and players. I remember fading gurley when he was blazing through the nfl. Week after week I said he wouldnt keep it up and missed all that. From then on I said I’d never do that again. Teams are much closer than people think and so are players when given enough opportunity.

    Yep! Even a 4-12 team usually goes 4-4 or 3-5 at home. That 8-8 team, well they’ll usually have a 2-6 or 3-5 road record. Even those amazing 12-4 teams usually go like 5-3 on the road.

    This is exactly what I kept bringing up in regards to Jax last week. I still think they are a bottom rung team and the same goes for the WFT. They just happened to catch 2 average teams on the road and then it simply took a handful of injuries and inexplicable decisions and, bam, both home dogs are 1-0.

    Two things seem to hold true repeatedly in the NFL. First is that it’s really hard to win road games and the second is that when a team needs a win for a playoff spot they’ll generally outplay a better team who is more secure in their position.

    For this week I think we’re looking at blowout home wins for Pittsburgh, Tampa, Chicago and GB. I also think that each of the following home dogs cover … NYJ, Miami, LAC and Houston.

    I’m sure a few of these will be wrong because football, but overall it’s good to keep in mind that even the worst of these teams aren’t all that bad.

  • Smallchimp

    As far as slot defenses go, I see myself wanting to pick on Minnesota, Houston, NYG, and Cleveland with opposing slot receivers.

    Minnesota allowed 160 and 2 TDs on 13/14 completions. Davante Adams is going to make any defense look meh, but the defenders the Vikings plugged in to cover the slot were among the lowest graded by PFF in coverage. Kearse and Alexander seemingly were the difference in 2019’s stingy slot defense because now they got manhandled. Parris Campbell lives in the slot and Rivers was quick to trust him.

    Houston allowed 112 and 1 TD on 11/12 completions. Watkins and Hill both contributed to an effective attack on the slot where Bradley Roby and John Reid both allowed the combined 5 targets that were thrown during their coverage. The Texans weren’t a strong slot defense in 2019 either, so this might continue to be a theme. Snead, Andrews, and Brown all spend time running in and out of the slot.

    New York allowed 88 yards and 2 TDs on 9/11 completions. All 5 defenders that spent some time in the slot allowed 100+ passer rating as the slot offense led by Juju Smith-Schuster toasted them. Weak slot defense was a trend in 2019 and it may not be solved by the current personnel. Anthony Miller, PFF’s 2nd overall WR in Week 1, could feast in the slot for only $5200 while appearing like a primary read for Trubisky.

    Cleveland allowed 175 yards and 2 TDs on 10/13 completions where Snead, Andrews, and Brown took turns running over Thomas and Sendejo in the slot while the pair allowed perfect passer ratings and a TD each. Cleveland was a low-targeted slot defense in 2019, but with 4 of the stingier defenders who manned the slot gone, this is a trend that may not continue into 2020. Tyler Boyd would be the benefactor this week but low target share could be a risk.

  • JSteele

    So do we fade Henry for Helaire?

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thedkexperience said...

    All these teams are closer than most “experts” think. Don’t even get me started on “experts” who ignore home field advantage.

    Lol I’d like to think we’re all experts to some extent, sometimes we’re right sometimes not. The “On any given Sunday” mantra is real, ask SF, Indy and Philly.

  • Njsum1

    @mbunner23 said...

    This week in cash games, who’s more important? Zeke or Dak?

    If I play Zeke, I’m probably playing Murray at QB. If I play Dak, I’ll probably play Henry at RB. Cooper at WR for both options. I don’t think playing Zeke and Dak together would be wise but I could be wrong.

    Is Dak the cash game QB? I don’t play cash, so I don’t know what the peeps are saying. Yet I think Kyler Murray might be the cash game QB this week for 6100. Don’t think you can go wrong either way TBH.

    Zeke should eat. If you need the 700 savings you can go Kyler, if not go Dak. For years in season long I would pair my QB with my running back. In a good offense it’s a high floor strategy, and it doesn’t limit your upside too much. Very possible they both go off.

  • thedkexperience

    @Smallchimp said...

    As far as slot defenses go, I see myself wanting to pick on Minnesota, Houston, NYG, and Cleveland with opposing slot receivers.

    Minnesota allowed 160 and 2 TDs on 13/14 completions. Davante Adams is going to make any defense look meh, but the defenders the Vikings plugged in to cover the slot were among the lowest graded by PFF in coverage. Kearse and Alexander seemingly were the difference in 2019’s stingy slot defense because now they got manhandled. Parris Campbell lives in the slot and Rivers was quick to trust him.

    Houston allowed 112 and 1 TD on 11/12 completions. Watkins and Hill both contributed to an effective attack on the slot where Bradley Roby and John Reid both allowed the combined 5 targets that were thrown during their coverage. The Texans weren’t a strong slot defense in 2019 either, so this might continue to be a theme. Snead, Andrews, and Brown all spend time running in and out of the slot.

    New York allowed 88 yards and 2 TDs on 9/11 completions. All 5 defenders that spent some time in the slot allowed 100+ passer rating as the slot offense led by Juju Smith-Schuster toasted them. Weak slot defense was a trend in 2019 and it may not be solved by the current personnel. Anthony Miller, PFF’s 2nd overall WR in Week 1, could feast in the slot for only $5200 while appearing like a primary read for Trubisky.

    Cleveland allowed 175 yards and 2 TDs on 10/13 completions where Snead, Andrews, and Brown took turns running over Thomas and Sendejo in the slot while the pair allowed perfect passer ratings and a TD each. Cleveland was a low-targeted slot defense in 2019, but with 4 of the stingier defenders who manned the slot gone, this is a trend that may not continue into 2020. Tyler Boyd would be the benefactor this week but low target share could be a risk.

    How is a WR with 76 yards on 4 catches the second highest graded WR on PFF?

    While I know PFF is highly regarded this makes no sense.

  • SteeloCity

    Can we get a Thursday night thread please?

  • thedkexperience

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Lol I’d like to think we’re all experts to some extent, sometimes we’re right sometimes not. The “On any given Sunday” mantra is real, ask SF, Indy and Philly.

    I agree with you for sure. Whenever I put “experts” in quotations I’m mostly talking about talking heads on TV and radio.

    The Sal Palantonio types who your 57 year old drunk racist uncle quote incorrectly. Those guys.

  • Njsum1

    @superjon said...

    Last season, I think he had 1 Beast that actually did well.

    His other picks tend to do well. I typically don’t fade any of his touts completely.

    Better off just ignoring it. I mean it’s funny that his Beast of the Week is usually the Bust of the week, yet it’s not like him picking the guy affects how he performs. And going in, his picks aren’t bad.

    Now it’s in the back of my head that Henry is going to bust, yet had I not known who the beast of the week was, I would want a lot of Henry this week. Actually, I still do, yet now I’m nervous 😬

  • JustDFSin

    @superjon said...

    Last season, I think he had 1 Beast that actually did well.

    His other picks tend to do well. I typically don’t fade any of his touts completely.

    The picks he gives out you can already guess which basic plays they will be. When he does tend to go out on a limb they flop badly. If you rewind the DFS clock to the beginning that show would be gold. Now the show is past its prime.

  • JSteele

    @Njsum1 said...

    Better off just ignoring it. I mean it’s funny that his Beast of the Week is usually the Bust of the week, yet it’s not like him picking the guy affects how he performs.

    Now it’s in the back of my head that Henry is going to bust, yet had I not known who the beast of the week was, I would want a lot of Henry this week. actually, I still do, yet now I’m nervous 😬

    I think what most likely happens with Henry is that Jacksonville plays slow and controls the clock which will limit Henry’s touches and the Titans offense in general. He should still have a decent stat line but is nowhere near necessary in the optimal or winning lineup.

    In the two games last year he had 17 and 19 rushes against the Jags.

  • parrothead112

    @JSteele said...

    So do we fade Henry for Helaire?

    How about both?

  • JSteele

    @parrothead112 said...

    How about both?

    Because I want to pay up for some stud receivers

  • jgchinz

    Max entering for the first time in the DK $3 PA so only 20 LUs.

    I don’t know how some of you do 150. This is overwhelming and I hate the few I’ve made so far.

    Was thinking rolling with 4 QBs 5 LU each and then a pool of around 6 RB 10 WR 4 TE and 3 Defense.

    Should I use a bigger player pool?

  • squidkill

    No CG sighting this week? He either is a CIA operative or goes full BUSTO in week 1. It would suck if he’s gone again-

    Reminds me of my ex wife— I think things are going great and than wooosh she’s gone.

  • thedkexperience

    @jgchinz said...

    Max entering for the first time in the DK $3 PA so only 20 LUs.

    I don’t know how some of you do 150. This is overwhelming and I hate the few I’ve made so far.

    Was thinking rolling with 4 QBs 5 LU each and then a pool of around 6 RB 10 WR 4 TE and 3 Defense.

    Should I use a bigger player pool?

    Seems like a reasonably sized pool to me.

  • thedkexperience

    @squidkill said...

    No CG sighting this week? He either is a CIA operative or goes full BUSTO in week 1. It would suck if he’s gone again-

    Reminds me of my ex wife— I think things are going great and than wooosh she’s gone.

    A week later I’m still wondering if he was joking when he said he doesn’t actually watch the games.

  • parrothead112

    @JSteele said...

    Because I want to pay up for some stud receivers

    Good idea. I was able to get them and Adams, using Corey Davis, and Lamb I think. Don’t quote me on that.

  • NDNole

    The amount of cooper/julio lineups is going to be crazy lol.

  • thedkexperience

    @NDNole said...

    The amount of cooper/julio lineups is going to be crazy lol.

    Sounds like it. We’re going to get ownership projections in the 40% area, touts will scream about pivots and then on Sunday morning they’ll both be 10 to 20% owned like every other week. 🤣

  • NDNole

    @thedkexperience said...

    Sounds like it. We’re going to get ownership projections in the 40% area, touts will scream about pivots and then on Sunday morning they’ll both be 10 to 20% owned like every other week. 🤣

    Maybe julio but cooper I think is going to be super high.

  • Njsum1

    @squidkill said...

    Reminds me of my ex wife— I think things are going great and than wooosh she’s gone

    Don’t you mean, then she returns 😉

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