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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/21
    8:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 41

    Sunday, 9/24
    9:30 AM EST : Baltimore ( -3.5 ) at Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( -3 ) at Buffalo ( 3 ) —- T: 40
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( -1.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 1.5 ) —- T: 40.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -7.5 ) at Chicago ( 7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( -3 ) at Detroit ( 3 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 6 ) at Carolina ( -6 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( -6 ) at NY Jets ( 6 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 13.5 ) at New England ( -13.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 3 ) at Tennessee ( -3 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8.5 ) at Green Bay ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3 ) at LA Chargers ( 3 ) —- T: 47.5
    8:30 PM EST : Oakland ( -3 ) at Washington ( 3 ) —- T: 54

    Monday, 9/25
    8:30 PM EST : Dallas ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 47.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • bjacksonibew

    Take this for what it’s worth but I think this game will be a shootout. Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford have a bromance both have houses in Georgia for the off season and even golf together.
    http://www.espn.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/30827/your-typical-bromance-the-matthew-stafford-matt-ryan-friendship

  • MikedUpDFS

    Just heard some news that there is a Flu bug spreading around the Bucs locker room.

  • BIF

    @KnivesShady said...

    Just heard some news that there is a Flu bug spreading around the Bucs locker room.

    Better to happen on Thur-Fri than on Sat-Sun; I’d expect this to be nothing other than something for beat writers to talk about the next 24-48 hours. The flu bug sucks but at least the game is in Minny so it won’t be 90-100 degrees on the field like last week in TB and the flu usually has very short term (24-48 hour) effects.

  • ASitar

    I don’t follow the Pats closely, but do they virtually have the same corners? I like Nuk. Last year vs the Pats he had 8 targets for 4 receptions and 56 yards. Houston will be down most game, I can see him getting 10-12 targets.

  • Mod518

    I was surprised at the Sammy Watkins ownership in the Thurs-Sun AM short slate. He was over 50% in the single entry double up. I understand it was a short slate but were people just picking him based on name recognition? Kupp had outperformed him to this point but was not seeing as many snaps. I thought the chalk would be kupp, garcon, lee for that slate. I am sitting just outside the cash line on the double up with lee, watson, allen, balt d left. Should I swap off Lee to Maclin? Maybe Allen to Fournette with the Brandon Williams news?

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I am absolutely all in this week on a Falcons stack with Ryan/ Freeman/ Jones..I think they are going to destroy the Lions this week. The Lions have played two shit teams Cardinals/Giants there is no way they will be able to stop the Falcons in a dome.

    I love playing the pickem that is where I am playing …if you look at Tier 2 I am taking that as an absolute set up. They are begging you to play Brown and Bell. I will be 100% all in on Jones in T2 (I am a diehard Steelers fan) and I do not like what I have seen from the Steelers at all. Their offense is not clicking at all and we all know how Ben struggles on the road. On regular CLASSIC contests on DK I don’t care about the 1000.00 discount on Bell I would rather have Ajayi and Freeman all day long.

    On classic lineups I will be gambling a bit with the Panthers at home hoping they have a huge breakout game against the Saints who cannot stop anyone.

    If the Steelers decide to have their breakout game this week I am screwed but I will wait until I see more from them before I pay up for any of them , the only thing worth paying for in my opinion is their defense which has totally shocked me so far this season.

  • MikedUpDFS

    @BIF said...

    Better to happen on Thur-Fri than on Sat-Sun; I’d expect this to be nothing other than something for beat writers to talk about the next 24-48 hours. The flu bug sucks but at least the game is in Minny so it won’t be 90-100 degrees on the field like last week in TB and the flu usually has very short term (24-48 hour) effects.

    Yup agreed, just sharing what I hear just in case.

  • Njsum1

    @dbullsfan said...

    so I hardly ever play the Thu-Mon slate but this week I thought it would be smart to play it because of some of the ownership % projections I was hearing and than fade the game. Needless to say I’m not very confident in profiting on football this week unless a miracle. I almost feel like if you had 0% exposure to that game you need to really pivot off some chalk and hope it bust and you hit your pivots or am I just over-reacting and still just try to field the best team possible.

    Just a strategy tip in general, probably won’t help you specifically for this week. Yet the sign up for Thursday contests and fade the game doesn’t work as often as you’d think. It’s actually not a good strategy most weeks. It would have to be two terrible offenses going up against each other whereas both teams also had solid defenses, yet even then it’s not guaranteed.

    Here’s why….because this game gets analyzed much more by those participating in the slate, so most DFS players have a better handle on it then they would 1 game out of 14 on a Sunday slate. Also, you’ll notice that if the game is a fade, most people who play in the Thursday contest, just fade it as well, so you’re not really getting a leg up. What offsets, the people overplay the Thursday game just to have action argument is the fact that the participants are generally sharper in the contests that start on Thursday. Most average football fans probably don’t play the Thursday slate as heavily as they do on the Sunday slate.

  • Supanice

    @KnivesShady said...

    Just heard some news that there is a Flu bug spreading around the Bucs locker room.

    Source? I’m strongly considering cook for cash

  • andre_swagassi

    Curious …. has anyone in here won big in GPPs? 1st place , 2nd etc? Like a 100k or 50k grand prize? Just wondering if among the masses has the grand prize been won at all

  • jimmyd1507

    So mad I took Gurley out last night before the game. I still played Hyde, so that’s a plus.

    I just wasn’t comfortable playing both RBs in a Thursday night game, but…. Fantasy.

  • jimmyd1507

    @Portlisx said...

    Alright, so, I’m clearly not winning money in my existing lineups this week (faded this game completely) so I hope to at least gain some knowledge. One thing from the Thursday games has me confused more than anything else, and that’s Hyde’s ownership percentages. In the small slates obviously I get it, but he had MASSIVE ownership in the full Thurs-Mon slates too. On FD, he was between 20-30% in full slates. In my Yahoo contests he’s at 50% in some and up to a whopping 70+% in others. 70%! He was higher owned than Gurley across the board by at least double in everything I’m entered in. Obviously his relatively cheap pricing and having the flex spot on Yahoo makes a big difference, and of course guys in the Thursday games are always a bit higher, but 70%? That’s absurd, especially with Bell, TY, Ajayi and others in such chalky spots. And this was an 800 entry contest so it’s not just some small anomaly.

    I was off of him completely. So my question for those of you who are smarter than me and better at this than I am, which is quite clearly most people, what did I miss with Hyde? Rams defense didn’t seem like a great spot. Yeah, they’ve given up some yards to RBs this year but a 2 game sample partly without Aaron Donald didn’t exactly seem like convincing evidence. 9ers were underdogs too and game script didn’t seem all that favorable. 9ers offense had looked anything but legit up to this point too. Add in the fact that Hyde gets injured constantly and it seemed like a relatively easy fade. Why was everyone in love with him here? I’ve obviously missed something that everyone else hasn’t.

    He was (on DK) like $1600 cheaper than Gurley, and a run heavy offense was going against a defense that has been gashed thus far.

    Felt like it was almost a gimme. At his price, even one TD and a couple yards was giving you nearly 3x value.

  • MikedUpDFS

    @Supanice said...

    Source? I’m strongly considering cook for cash

    Heard it on a local Orlando sports talk radio.

  • Njsum1

    @jimmyd1507 said...

    Add in the fact that Hyde gets injured constantly and it seemed like a relatively easy fade

    That should rarely be a consideration for DFS, that’s for season long. Regardless if a player is injury prone or not, the odds of him getting injured in this one game are the same as the next guy. The way to counteract a player who is injury prone is to just lower your ownership percentage on him a little bit, not to fade.

  • Wander_Bread

    I am starting to think Fournette is a must play. They should be running the ball a whole lot anyway with the normal game script and on top of that doubt that Marrone wants Bortles embarassing his team in front of the Wembley crowd. We also have an early start. Oh and not to mention probably the second best run stuffer in the league (after Snacks) up front in Brandon Williams did not make the trip to London.

    If my memory serves me correctly also these games are always pretty sloppy and stay rather close to keep them a bit heavy on the running game.

  • heyfeefellskee

    @CleverGroom said...

    Yeah, I’m already sad about this. Hammies are no joke. Time to make alternative plans on the full slate.

    You may have already covered this, but Jaron Brown had 11 targets last week and wasn’t on the injury report yesterday. He’s 1300 less than Nelson, too.

  • jimmyd1507

    @gillio said...

    CG are you liking Riddick this week? Or is abdullah gonna steal a lot of his work ?

    Everyone on Riddick…

    But Buck Allen is $100 less and without Terrence West (who missed practice yesterday), going up against a Jags team that has been gashed on the ground in two games.

    Maybe you’re thinking more of a GPP, but I’m not going to get cute on this one.

  • Wander_Bread

    @jimmyd1507 said...

    Everyone on Riddick…

    But Buck Allen is $100 less and without Terrence West (who missed practice yesterday), going up against a Jags team that has been gashed on the ground in two games.

    Maybe you’re thinking more of a GPP, but I’m not going to get cute on this one.

    Might make sense to play Fournette and Allen in the same lineup and be done at RB

  • sox9

    @KnivesShady said...

    Heard it on a local Orlando sports talk radio.

    Jared or Dalvin?

  • bjacksonibew

    @andre_swagassi said...

    Curious …. has anyone in here won big in GPPs? 1st place , 2nd etc? Like a 100k or 50k grand prize? Just wondering if among the masses has the grand prize been won at all

    I won 2k in basketball, and took down a few nfl gpps for 500-600$

  • sox9

    @jimmyd1507 said...

    Everyone on Riddick…

    But Buck Allen is $100 less and without Terrence West (who missed practice yesterday), going up against a Jags team that has been gashed on the ground in two games.

    Maybe you’re thinking more of a GPP, but I’m not going to get cute on this one.

    West returned to practice this morning

  • jimmyd1507

    @sox9 said...

    West returned to practice this morning

    Nooooo!

    I like the idea of paying an extra $1000 for Fournette, in that case.

  • osuryanf

    @andre_swagassi said...

    Curious …. has anyone in here won big in GPPs? 1st place , 2nd etc? Like a 100k or 50k grand prize? Just wondering if among the masses has the grand prize been won at all

    Yeah.. I won 50k in NBA, 20k in baseball.. It’s definitely possible.. just takes the right research, skill, and most importantly, luck.

  • mbunner23

    What are we liking for cash QB’s? I want to play Cousins at that price tag but could be a let down. Feel safer going Carr or Stafford. Thoughts?

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @andre_swagassi said...

    Curious …. has anyone in here won big in GPPs? 1st place , 2nd etc? Like a 100k or 50k grand prize? Just wondering if among the masses has the grand prize been won at all

    3k last week in the pickem. Missed 1st by 5 ffpts. The last catch by Jones and Adams not getting that 2nd TD cost me 1st or 2nd.

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