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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/20
    8:20 PM EST : NY Jets ( 3 ) at Cleveland ( -3 ) —- T: 39

    Sunday, 9/23
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at Washington ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 6.5 ) at Kansas City ( -6.5 ) —- T: 56
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 52.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 7 ) at Philadelphia ( -7 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 16.5 ) at Minnesota ( -16.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 6 ) at Houston ( -6 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 6.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -6.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 3 ) at Miami ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 7 ) at LA Rams ( -7 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 1.5 ) at Seattle ( -1.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:25 PM EST : Chicago ( -5.5 ) at Arizona ( 5.5 ) —- T: 38
    8:20 PM EST : New England ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 51.5

    Monday, 9/24
    8:15 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -2.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) —- T: 52.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #55

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @jhpog said...

    How do you feel about using TE in the flex spot in DK GPPs? The pros are salary savings and differentiating your lineup while the cons are the position less likely to be putting up monster games compared to RB or WR.

    You answered your own question. That’s pretty much it right there. I’ve done it before. Don’t recall off the top of my head how often it’s worked. I know last week I had some Doyle/Kittle TE/Flex line ups. You know how that went.

  • CleverGroom

    @jhpog said...

    How do you feel about using TE in the flex spot in DK GPPs? The pros are salary savings and differentiating your lineup while the cons are the position less likely to be putting up monster games compared to RB or WR.

    TE is a bad position that’s especially likely to bust. I do think there’s value there this week, and I especially like the low-end value at TE more than at WR or RB.

    I’m probably gonna do it. Just don’t go crazy. Something like 10-15% TE FLEX might be a reasonable ceiling to set for yourself.

  • parrothead112

    Man, it is so hard to get up to Gurley and Kamara this week, and still find anything at WR.

  • keephustlincuz

    @CleverGroom said...

    P.S. Phillip Lindsay? I mean…maybe? There’s a weird, narrow path where this game could do something like shoot out, and Lindsay is a total boss in his backfield in tight games so far.

    I’d probably never even consider the play if C.J. Mosley was active. He won’t be.

    You’re fishing for a pivot off clement aren’t you.

  • infantryboys

    @CleverGroom said...

    This is notable for Travis Kelce.

    Also helps the chance of a blowout.

  • CleverGroom

    @keephustlincuz said...

    You’re fishing for a pivot off clement aren’t you.

    I do have some shares penciled in that need to be excised. He could do nicely.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @CleverGroom said...

    wouldn’t blame people if they wanted to be early on Thomas. It’s a solid matchup for it, and I like this game in general. The main problem I have with the play is that there are other excellent options at TE this week. I’m finally considering TE FLEX for the first time this year, much as I know better

    Doesn’t seem like you generally consider TE’s for your flex as much as others do. Any data that 2 TE LU’s are good/bad? Except the TEBC in Baltimore, any other TE’s in Thomas price range? Thanks for all you do here. You see alot of the“angles of data” that sometime slips by

  • SilverStone18

    2v2

    Kittle/Kamara

    Or

    Reed/Gordon

  • lukemiller42

    With how much Watson talk was in this thread compared to all other qbs seems like he will not be qb1 this week.

    But [heck] it im taking him anyway! Told myself all week to do it and I’m still sold

  • shadowchap1978

    Anyone liking Jimmy Graham this week at TE?? Just a gut feeling but I feel he scores this week. Been getting decent targets as well. Of course Ebron and Dissly are there on the cheap. Decisions..Decisions

  • CleverGroom

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Doesn’t seem like you generally consider TE’s for your flex as much as others do. Any data that 2 TE LU’s are good/bad? Except the TEBC in Baltimore, any other TE’s in Thomas price range? Thanks for all you do here. You see alot of the“angles of data” that sometime slips by

    I need to get cracking on these LUs, but one recent study that comes to mind is Levitan’s look at Milly Maker winning LUs. 7% used TE FLEX.

    People would probably be surprised to see that 55% used RB in the FLEX. I’d expect that to continue, even with more passing this year. RBs are playing a role in that trend, not just WRs. TEs haven’t been all that impressive. I’m actually gonna go tick my TE FLEX down to 5-10% max right now.

  • CleverGroom

    @shadowchap1978 said...

    Anyone liking Jimmy Graham this week at TE?? Just a gut feeling but I feel he scores this week. Been getting decent targets as well. Of course Ebron and Dissly are there on the cheap. Decisions..Decisions

    I don’t mind it. Positional scarcity is a huge deal at TE, so if Jimmy goes off and most of the other plays bust (as TEs usually do), then you’re sitting pretty, regardless of his salary.

    I’d agree that the chalk’s better as process plays. This is more about game theory and pivoting at a highly volatile position.

  • sholden

    @CleverGroom said...

    I’m not afraid to play Goodwin here. He’s already demonstrated rapport with Jimmy G, so the missed practice time shouldn’t be a blocking issue. Dr. Chao thinks he’ll play and be fine. I’m not going to disagree.

    Goodwin’s the only player in my pool from SF, besides some Matt Breida shares. Like KC DST quite a bit.

    CG – good to see you in here again this year, I hope things go well as we go wayyyy back.

    I happen to agree with you in regards to Clement. I also do not believe that Goodwin will play this weekend, however, that is just my speculation.

    I’d love to hear some thoughts on the following WRs:

    Great matchups:
    Cobb: Perhaps the best actual matchup this weekend, going up against Fabian Moreau.
    Garcon: Also in a fantastic matchup against Scandrick, should see plenty of targets with no Goodwin in a high total.

    Points of Interest:
    Green/Boyd: not sure what to make here. Despite the hot start, I can’t say I believe in Dalton..or Boyd. AJ is phenomenal, but is he better than those around him (Thomas, Julio, etc.)?
    OBJ: Does this not just seem like a week he puts up 2 TDs?
    Fuller/Hopkins: Flip side of the game, is this the week Watson gets it going?
    Watkins: I can’t lie, he looked very good in the PIT game. What will be his role moving forward?

    Bad matchup:
    Julio: should be interesting against Lattimore. Lattimore has not looked great this year tho, dem targets so far for Julio tho.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #76

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    Results from Draftkings NFL Week 3 Tiers Contest survey
    Thanks to anyone that voted
    https://www.surveymonkey.com/results/SM-WV66MHMHL/

  • Dunzor

    Still lots of room left in the RG NFL satellites….anyone who needs an invite to our league let us know. It’s your chance to win some tickets to some much better EV contests then throwing money after the Milly

  • mike42

    @Pandamonious said...

    Just to add on to the Alex Collins hate, Denver has been really good against the run so far. Maybe it’s just been the match ups, but they were also elite last year. This is a bad week to try and get the run game going. Flacco/Brown is by far my favorite under the radar stack. Depending on the rain, maybe I should be hesitant, but either way like others have said Collins doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

    I appreciate the a Collins feedback(hate), but Denver always well the first 2 games which inexplicably, are always home. They always suck in game 3 which inexplicably, is always on the road and usually on the east coast. Last year it was @ Buf and CG both couldn’t have been more wrong about liking Den that week. If the game script goes according to Vegas, Collins should get similar usage to most of the other chalkier options in his price range. I really have no clue how good Den run D is, but I do know that there is a better than normal chance that they come out flat and that’s the one thing stats can’t take into account. I also think his ADP was pretty high a few weeks ago and the reasons for it prolly still exist and were masked by game scripts that are not likely to exist tomorrow and instead, be idealistic for rostering a rb in Collins role. Lastly, while Harbaugh is a liar, the truth is they have no realistic shot at reaching the playoffs without getting the running game going and he knows it. The plan can’t be to ride Flacco to the promised land.

    I do appreciate the feedback and I will use him less than I would have an hour ago. The reason I am still going to use him is he smashed in these same exact type setups a year ago and recency bias has made most forget that. I am also pounding Balt, first half and game tomorrow. Think it’s a better setup for Balt/Collins than most.

  • parrothead112

    Sorry for being “that guy”, but McCaffery/Melvin Gordon or Gurley/Gio Bernard for cash? Thank you so much.

  • Dunzor

    @parrothead112 said...

    Sorry for being “that guy”, but McCaffery/Melvin Gordon or Gurley/Gio Bernard for cash? Thank you so much.

    I like all 4 so you really can’t go wrong but if you need a tiebreaker I guess I would say that Gordon’s game script is the most precarious so I might go with the 2nd grouping for cash

  • Brian7479

    @SilverStone18 said...

    2v2

    Kittle/Kamara

    Or

    Reed/Gordon

    First one. Especially if Goodwin plays and Berry sits

  • Micah831

    Is anyone besides me thinking mahomes might not go off again this week? Foster is back for SF. Am I trippin

  • Micah831

    I also feel I do 30-50 LU’s (usually pretty successful in both GPP’s and cash, enough too double my money) but then I come on here and get mindfucked and second guess myself haha not this time boys! I’m going all out solo

  • Dunzor

    @Micah831 said...

    Is anyone besides me thinking mahomes might not go off again this week? Foster is back for SF. Am I trippin

    I’m not that high on Mahomes. I think he’ll still score some, but at a high salary and with other QBs who can equal it I don’t think he’s worth it. I’m playing mostly Hunt from KC this week looking for them to finally lean on the run a bit

  • deeebo

    watkins??? on FD?? or are there better options at his price.

  • mike42

    @CleverGroom said...

    I need to get cracking on these LUs, but one recent study that comes to mind is Levitan’s look at Milly Maker winning LUs. 7% used TE FLEX.

    People would probably be surprised to see that 55% used RB in the FLEX. I’d expect that to continue, even with more passing this year. RBs are playing a role in that trend, not just WRs. TEs haven’t been all that impressive. I’m actually gonna go tick my TE FLEX down to 5-10% max right now.

    The study he did can kind of be tossed out the window unless scoring, mostly through the air, slows down. My rb’s in season long are Fournette and Howard, I’ve had the highest points both weeks by a wide margin. My qb-Mahommes- 3 wr’s- M Thomas, Ty Hill and JUJu. The reason I bring that up is any other year if your rb’s didn’t produce, you lost. Also because it bothers Squid. Scoring in general is up, but the shift to a higher percentage of scoring being through the air muddles the results of any studies done over the last 3-5 yrs. It’s a different NFL with less emphasis being placed on the run game and if that trend continues, 55 plus percent of the winners in the next 3-5 years will prolly have WR’s in the flex and possibly even a higher percentage of TE’s than previously.

  • squidkill

    @mike42 said...

    The study he did can kind of be tossed out the window unless scoring, mostly through the air, slows down. My rb’s in season long are Fournette and Howard, I’ve had the highest points both weeks by a wide margin. My qb-Mahommes- 3 wr’s- M Thomas, Ty Hill and JUJu. The reason I bring that up is any other year if your rb’s didn’t produce, you lost. Also because it bothers Squid. Scoring in general is up, but the shift to a higher percentage of scoring being through the air muddles the results of any studies done over the last 3-5 yrs. It’s a different NFL with less emphasis being placed on the run game and if that trend continues, 55 plus percent of the winners in the next 3-5 years will prolly have WR’s in the flex and possibly even a higher percentage of TE’s than previously.

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