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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 24th
    8:20 PM EST : Miami ( 3 ) at Jacksonville ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, September 27th
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -1.5 ) at Minnesota ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -4 ) at NY Giants ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Cleveland ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Las Vegas ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -9.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 6 ) at LA Chargers ( -6 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( 6 ) at Arizona ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6 ) at Denver ( 6 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at New Orleans ( -4 ) —- T: —

    Monday, September 28th
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 52.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    Hazy made a point in this past week 2 thread about just staying afloat most weeks and he generally will hit on big one a year. Thats my goal lol. I nearly won the masters milly a few years ago, ended up finishing 12th. Best I ever finished. If it werent for a last minute needless putt by someone in another lineup I would have finished 4th. Its just a matter of perseverance. But I do wish the payouts rewarded those who place in the top 3-5% because honestly sometimes it just doesnt seem worth it lol.

    The 3 dollar this week on DK had a flatter payout structure.

    Yet that’s how it is with NFL DFS GPP play. NFL is not as predictable as NBA, so you can’t expect to profit 1/2 the nights. It’s more predictable than MLB where I expect to hit a top score one every 50 slates. A top score (top 100), not the top score.

    So in NFL if you’re a GPP player you can expect most of your GPP success to come from 1-3 weeks depending on variance that year. I’m also not talking about Milly Maker’s….other GPP’s that aren’t as top heavy, are the ones I’m referencing.

  • NDNole

    @JCappy said...

    Kelly certainly has 20 touch upside — but I would not count on him for that. Ekeler was the better runner last week and has gotten 20 touches each of the last two weeks. I don’t think LA will continue to give us 40 combined touches from these two guys.

    I agree ekler is the better player. But I think they are going to use kelly like they used to use gordon. So far that looks like the case. If so he will get the goal line work and a lot of carries and ekler will come in nd smash with whatever touches he gets. So far early in the season that looks like how it is going to play out.

  • NDNole

    @Njsum1 said...

    The 3 dollar this week on DK had a flatter payout structure.

    Yet that’s how it is with NFL DFS GPP play. NFL is not as predictable as NBA, so you can’t expect to profit 1/2 the nights. It’s more predictable than MLB where I expect to hit a top score one every 50 slates. A top score (top 100), not the top score.

    So in NFL if you’re a GPP player you can expect most of your GPP success to come from 1-3 weeks depending on variance that year. I’m also not talking about Milly Maker’s….other GPP’s that aren’t as top heavy, are the ones I’m referencing.

    Im gravitating towrds the $3. oI like playing the milly for the fun of it. But I will probably end up playing the $3 more and the Wildcat $333 this year. I wont get into the $333 until mid year when I start to do better with data.

  • TJRhodes

    Robert Woods revenge game

  • JCappy

    @NDNole said...

    Im gravitating towrds the $3. oI like playing the milly for the fun of it. But I will probably end up playing the $3 more and the Wildcat $333 this year. I wont get into the $333 until mid year when I start to do better with data.

    Man, I think the Wildcat is one of the worst structures in all of DFS.

    You can come in the top 7% and not even double your money. I’m not putting up $333 for that. Plus — that being a 150 max tells me that it set up as a blatant trap for ‘casual’ who happened to come into some new money through either life or a big payout the week before.

    Then again, DK isn’t running any 2x minimum cash in any of the high stakes.

  • NDNole

    @JCappy said...

    Man, I think the Wildcat is one of the worst structures in all of DFS.

    You can come in the top 7% and not even double your money. I’m not putting up $333 for that. Plus — that being a 150 max tells me that it set up as a blatant trap for ‘casual’ who happened to come into some new money through either life or a big payout the week before.

    Then again, DK isn’t running any 2x minimum cash in any of the high stakes.

    True, but it seems the higher stakes dont take as much risk. The chalk is extra chalk there and they seem to play safer. At least thats what it looks like to me when I take a look at past scores. All it takes is one week. I didnt know it was 150 max though. Must be a sharkfest there.

    I dont know many who play the $333 here. Or at least its not talked about much. I’d love to hear what they think about playing it.

  • JCappy

    @TJRhodes said...

    Robert Woods revenge game

    I can get behind Woods in cash games, but I don’t see the appeal in tournaments unless it is the perfect spot. He has 13 touchdowns in 45 games with the Rams and he’s not exactly a field stretcher either.

    Woods always feels like a ‘well i have 5900 left and Woods cost 5900’ type of play. Do you ever want to play Robert Woods? I think there are numerous guys in his range that I would look towards to smash in a tourney.

    He’s in that 20% target share range — but not used in ways that put him into a blowup spot. If I’m playing Woods, I’m probably using Goff as well.

  • JCappy

    @NDNole said...

    True, but it seems the higher stakes dont take as much risk. The chalk is extra chalk there and they seem to play safer. At least thats what it looks like to me when I take a look at past scores. All it takes is one week. I didnt know it was 150 max though. Must be a sharkfest there.

    I dont know many who play the $333 here. Or at least its not talked about much. I’d love to hear what they think about playing it.

    I used to play the Power Sweep and a few other 1-3 entry max high stakes contests when it used to pay out a 2x minimum cash.

    I certainly wouldn’t throw one lineup in a 150 max contest that is full of professional players.

  • jleit13

    Kenyan Drake and Miles Sanders seem too cheap on DK this week. I know Drake in particular hasn’t really broken out yet but hes still getting around 20 touches a game and we just saw what Aaron Jones did to this lions D.

  • NDNole

    @JCappy said...

    I used to play the Power Sweep and a few other 1-3 entry max high stakes contests when it used to pay out a 2x minimum cash.

    I certainly wouldn’t throw one lineup in a 150 max contest that is full of professional players.

    Makes sense to me. I’l probably hold off on that then.

  • lukemiller42

    @JCappy said...

    I can get behind Woods in cash games, but I don’t see the appeal in tournaments unless it is the perfect spot. He has 13 touchdowns in 45 games with the Rams and he’s not exactly a field stretcher either.

    Woods always feels like a ‘well i have 5900 left and Woods cost 5900’ type of play. Do you ever want to play Robert Woods? I think there are numerous guys in his range that I would look towards to smash in a tourney.

    He’s in that 20% target share range — but not used in ways that put him into a blowup spot. If I’m playing Woods, I’m probably using Goff as well.

    not sure i get this. woods is a guy who when he blows up, he absolutely smashes and i think thats not a common trait to find off the top of my head. here are his biggest game logs dating back to 2017 when he joined the rams:

    2017: 8 rec/171 yds/2 tds, 6 rec/108 yds
    2018: 10 rec/104 yds/2 tds, 5 rec/101 yds/1 td, 7 rec/109 yds
    2019: 13 rec/164 yds, 13 rec/172 yds, 8 rec/117 yds
    2020: 6 rec/105 yds

    he actually had a 162 yd game v seattle in 2016 too. i suppose theres the case he is allergic to the end zone but i think tds are more random than anything else. still though woods is a rare guy with 150+ yd upside and more a tournament play. i would definitely not be looking at him in cash games because of buffalo’s cbs being elite. i do like woods in a revenge game and i think he is going to have a great year this year…that game could be a sneaky shootout too. i do like the idea of using goff as well though with him. but i think he is definitely a gpp play and not really a cash play because i could see a low floor if buffalo’s defense shows up.

  • NDNole

    This is probably another chubb week. He is going to get fed and fed. Maybe share some with hunt.

  • Supanice

    Cooper Kupp is in every single lineup I make this week.

    Biggest mistake of the week, which I’m sure a lot of us made, was overreacting to the Reed news and not pausing to think so what if he runs 10-20 snaps, most of them will be at the goal line and at $2600 it is worth it.

  • techbucsfan

    TE is interesting this week. Some guys I like on FD below:

    Core Guys

    George Kittle @ $7.5K vs. NYG: Sounds like he’ll be back this week. Obviously the 49ers are incredibly banged up with Jimmy G and Mostert going down this week, and they’re already down a couple of WR’s. Mullens playing instead of Jimmy G doesn’t bother me a ton considering in 7 of the 8 games Kittle + Mullens played together in 2018, Kittle received 8+ targets. Giants D is a solid matchup as well and with the lack of weapons, I think Kittle should be pretty safe unless they just decide to run the ball all game. Either way though, with so many good sub $7k RB’s this week, I plan to have a good amount of Kittle this week.

    Dallas Goedert @ $5.2K vs. CIN: Right up there with Kittle as one of my favorite TE plays of the week. He’s just way underpriced given the matchup and 17 targets he’s received over the last 2 weeks. Browns TE’s only combined for 3/36 against the Bengals this week, but I think that was more due to just lack of opportunity due to the running game seeing so much success. Hunter Henry went for 6/73 in week 1 and wouldn’t surprise me to see Goedert have a similar line with a TD or 2. I will have a lot of exposure to Goedert this week.

    Logan Thomas @ $4.9K vs. CLE: Another guy who has seen 17 targets over the last 2 weeks, is just too underpriced and may have an even better matchup than Goedert. The Browns gave up 5/58/2 to Mark Andrews in week 1 and a combined and a combined total of 11/87/1 to Uzomah/Sample this week. I plan to have a lot of exposure to Thomas this week.

    Other I’m considering and will most likely sprinkle in

    Zach Ertz @ $6.2K vs CIN: I like Goedert more than Ertz when factoring in price, but as I mentioned above I like the matchup for the Eagles and think Wentz gets things squared away this week. Ertz has received 7 targets in each of the first 2 games and we know Wentz likes to look his way in the redzone.

    Tyler Higbee @ $6.1K vs BUF: This one is contingent on the health of BUF’s LB’s. This past week they were without Milano, Edmunds and Philips and we saw Mike Gesicki go off for 8/130/1 TD. Obviously, Higbee is coming off a huge week himself but only 9 targets in 2 games is definitely a bit scary especially at $6.1K. If the Bills are without their LB’s again, I’ll have to have some shares just because of the upside, but if the LB’s play I probably won’t have much Higbee due to the price.

    Hunter Henry @ $6K vs. CAR: Just a great matchup here and has received 8 targets in both of the first 2 games. It sounds like the Chargers are going back to Tyrod which I think actually might be okay for Henry because it might keep the game more competitive and hopefully they’ll have to throw a bit more.

    Jonnu Smith @ $5.6K vs. MIN: Has 3 TD’s in the past 2 weeks and 12 targets through 2 games is a very solid amount. If AJ Brown doesn’t play, I’ll probably have a good amount of Smith and might move him up with my core plays. Vikings just got burned by Mo Alie-Cox for 5/111 this week so it’s clearly an exploitable matchup for Smith. Losing Anthony Barr for the season shouldn’t help matters for them either.

    TJ Hockenson @ $5.4K vs. ARI: It’s only been 2 games, but ARI isn’t the free square for TE’s like it was last year. That being said, Hockenson has looked solid this season catching all 9 of his targets for a respectable 9/118/1 line. I wish the targets were a bit higher but this is a game I expect the Lions to be down in which should result in Stafford chucking the ball a lot. Will have at least some Hock shares regardless, but my end exposure will come down to if Golladay plays or not. I expect I’ll have more shares of Kittle, Goedert and Thomas regardless.

    Mo Allie-Cox @ $5K vs. NYJ: Contingent on Doyle not playing obviously (would like him if he plays) as the Colts are incredibly banged up at WR and Cox is coming off a 5/111 line. This should be a good matchup for him and I’ll probably have to have some shares due to the price.

    Chris Herndon @ $5K vs. IND: Similar to the Colts, the Jets are incredibly banged up at WR and Herndon has shown he can produce in the past. At this price, I just think the upside is too good to have zero shares of.

    Dalton Schultz @ $4.9K vs. SEA: Stepped in for Blake Jarwin this week and put up a monster 9/88/1 line. At this price, the # of targets he saw Sunday and in a game that should be a shootout, he needs to be in at least a couple of lineups.

    Drew Sample @ $4.8K vs. PHI: Stepped in once Uzomah went down and saw 10 targets. Obviously, Burrow threw the ball 61 times on Thursday which probably won’t happen again this week but the Eagles defense has not looked good and I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out into a shootout. At this price and with a starting role locked in now, he is worthy of having some shares.

  • NDNole

    @Supanice said...

    Cooper Kupp is in every single lineup I make this week.

    Biggest mistake of the week, which I’m sure a lot of us made, was overreacting to the Reed news and not pausing to think so what if he runs 10-20 snaps, most of them will be at the goal line and at $2600 it is worth it.

    My thoughts exactly. Almost went with kupp last week. Glad I didnt but it was for the wrong reasons. This week im playing him.

  • Njsum1

    @Supanice said...

    Cooper Kupp is in every single lineup I make this week.

    Biggest mistake of the week, which I’m sure a lot of us made, was overreacting to the Reed news and not pausing to think so what if he runs 10-20 snaps, most of them will be at the goal line and at $2600 it is worth it.

    1) why?

    2) is not playing a concussion prone TE who hasn’t been good for a while supposedly on a snap count a mistake? I don’t think so. I had him in a lineup, yet I wasn’t going heavy on a player who rarely makes it through a game.

  • 33BeRad

    @NDNole said...

    This is probably another chubb week. He is going to get fed and fed. Maybe share some with hunt.

    I’ll have both in my player pool for sure. Won’t be super heavy on either as I could see both doing good not great or one getting 20 something and the other in the teens. There is a better than zero chance that one explodes, probably Chubb more so than Hunt because he typically sees more volume.

  • infantryboys

    @NDNole said...

    I agree. It sucks to place lets say 1500 out of 200,000 people and only get 3 times entry. Makes it seem impossible to keep going at times. But the reality is you only need to hit once to make it all worth it. For many who have been playing for a while and staying afloat or above 50% winning, they dont realize they are probably just as good as the guy who took down the gpp that week. Its just a matter of chance to go along with the skill. We often make the right play, it just may not work out that week.

    I know most weeks I can honestly say I have about 80% of the top plays right in my player pool. I just dont seem to put them all together or have enough lineups/bankroll. But its possible. Besides I play it mostly for the added fun of the sweat and any win is just gravy. Thats how you stay in this for the long haul. People shouldnt go in trying to risk it all for the win. Thats when guys quit after getting tilted and burned out.

    Hazy made a point in this past week 2 thread about just staying afloat most weeks and he generally will hit on big one a year. Thats my goal lol. I nearly won the masters milly a few years ago, ended up finishing 12th. Best I ever finished. If it werent for a last minute needless putt by someone in another lineup I would have finished 4th. Its just a matter of perseverance. But I do wish the payouts rewarded those who place in the top 3-5% because honestly sometimes it just doesnt seem worth it lol.

    I started playing back in 2013 and, except for contests like the Milly, payouts on both FD and DK were much flatter, with only about 15-18% of the field cashing. Also, min cash was either 2X or 2.5X.

    Am I remembering correctly and if so, why did the sites get away from this structure?

  • 33BeRad

    @techbucsfan said...

    TE is interesting this week. Some guys I like on FD below:

    Core Guys

    George Kittle @ $7.5K vs. NYG: Sounds like he’ll be back this week. Obviously the 49ers are incredibly banged up with Jimmy G and Mostert going down this week, and they’re already down a couple of WR’s. Mullens playing instead of Jimmy G doesn’t bother me a ton considering in 7 of the 8 games Kittle + Mullens played together in 2018, Kittle received 8+ targets. Giants D is a solid matchup as well and with the lack of weapons, I think Kittle should be pretty safe unless they just decide to run the ball all game. Either way though, with so many good sub $7k RB’s this week, I plan to have a good amount of Kittle this week.

    Dallas Goedert @ $5.2K vs. CIN: Right up there with Kittle as one of my favorite TE plays of the week. He’s just way underpriced given the matchup and 17 targets he’s received over the last 2 weeks. Browns TE’s only combined for 3/36 against the Bengals this week, but I think that was more due to just lack of opportunity due to the running game seeing so much success. Hunter Henry went for 6/73 in week 1 and wouldn’t surprise me to see Goedert have a similar line with a TD or 2. I will have a lot of exposure to Goedert this week.

    Logan Thomas @ $4.9K vs. CLE: Another guy who has seen 17 targets over the last 2 weeks, is just too underpriced and may have an even better matchup than Goedert. The Browns gave up 5/58/2 to Mark Andrews in week 1 and a combined and a combined total of 11/87/1 to Uzomah/Sample this week. I plan to have a lot of exposure to Thomas this week.

    Other I’m considering and will most likely sprinkle in

    Zach Ertz @ $6.2K vs CIN: I like Goedert more than Ertz when factoring in price, but as I mentioned above I like the matchup for the Eagles and think Wentz gets things squared away this week. Ertz has received 7 targets in each of the first 2 games and we know Wentz likes to look his way in the redzone.

    Tyler Higbee @ $6.1K vs BUF: This one is contingent on the health of BUF’s LB’s. This past week they were without Milano, Edmunds and Philips and we saw Mike Gesicki go off for 8/130/1 TD. Obviously, Higbee is coming off a huge week himself but only 9 targets in 2 games is definitely a bit scary especially at $6.1K. If the Bills are without their LB’s again, I’ll have to have some shares just because of the upside, but if the LB’s play I probably won’t have much Higbee due to the price.

    Hunter Henry @ $6K vs. CAR: Just a great matchup here and has received 8 targets in both of the first 2 games. It sounds like the Chargers are going back to Tyrod which I think actually might be okay for Henry because it might keep the game more competitive and hopefully they’ll have to throw a bit more.

    Jonnu Smith @ $5.6K vs. MIN: Has 3 TD’s in the past 2 weeks and 12 targets through 2 games is a very solid amount. If AJ Brown doesn’t play, I’ll probably have a good amount of Smith and might move him up with my core plays. Vikings just got burned by Mo Alie-Cox for 5/111 this week so it’s clearly an exploitable matchup for Smith. Losing Anthony Barr for the season shouldn’t help matters for them either.

    TJ Hockenson @ $5.4K vs. ARI: It’s only been 2 games, but ARI isn’t the free square for TE’s like it was last year. That being said, Hockenson has looked solid this season catching all 9 of his targets for a respectable 9/118/1 line. I wish the targets were a bit higher but this is a game I expect the Lions to be down in which should result in Stafford chucking the ball a lot. Will have at least some Hock shares regardless, but my end exposure will come down to if Golladay plays or not. I expect I’ll have more shares of Kittle, Goedert and Thomas regardless.

    Mo Allie-Cox @ $5K vs. NYJ: Contingent on Doyle not playing obviously (would like him if he plays) as the Colts are incredibly banged up at WR and Cox is coming off a 5/111 line. This should be a good matchup for him and I’ll probably have to have some shares due to the price.

    Chris Herndon @ $5K vs. IND: Similar to the Colts, the Jets are incredibly banged up at WR and Herndon has shown he can produce in the past. At this price, I just think the upside is too good to have zero shares of.

    Dalton Schultz @ $4.9K vs. SEA: Stepped in for Blake Jarwin this week and put up a monster 9/88/1 line. At this price, the # of targets he saw Sunday and in a game that should be a shootout, he needs to be in at least a couple of lineups.

    Drew Sample @ $4.8K vs. PHI: Stepped in once Uzomah went down and saw 10 targets. Obviously, Burrow threw the ball 61 times on Thursday which probably won’t happen again this week but the Eagles defense has not looked good and I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out into a shootout. At this price and with a starting role locked in now, he is worthy of having some shares.

    I was just thinking how at first look their are a lot of good TE plays.
    Don’t forget Fant and Waller

  • bazerko

    Can anyone explain how come Aaron Jones was a good play versus the Lions? He wasn’t on my radar and blew up. Was this a fluke game or was his matchup versus the Lions something that I just missed?

  • WrathofKhaaan

    Initial thoughts… there’s a ton of value on this slate.

    DAL/SEA oh so stackable…

    RB chalk looks like Chris Carson, Jonathan Taylor, Kenyan Drake. Value Mike Davis and Dion Lewis.
    Edit: Add Zeke to the list

    With Lock out TB DST will smash.

  • infantryboys

    @techbucsfan said...

    TE is interesting this week. Some guys I like on FD below:

    Core Guys

    George Kittle @ $7.5K vs. NYG: Sounds like he’ll be back this week. Obviously the 49ers are incredibly banged up with Jimmy G and Mostert going down this week, and they’re already down a couple of WR’s. Mullens playing instead of Jimmy G doesn’t bother me a ton considering in 7 of the 8 games Kittle + Mullens played together in 2018, Kittle received 8+ targets. Giants D is a solid matchup as well and with the lack of weapons, I think Kittle should be pretty safe unless they just decide to run the ball all game. Either way though, with so many good sub $7k RB’s this week, I plan to have a good amount of Kittle this week.

    Dallas Goedert @ $5.2K vs. CIN: Right up there with Kittle as one of my favorite TE plays of the week. He’s just way underpriced given the matchup and 17 targets he’s received over the last 2 weeks. Browns TE’s only combined for 3/36 against the Bengals this week, but I think that was more due to just lack of opportunity due to the running game seeing so much success. Hunter Henry went for 6/73 in week 1 and wouldn’t surprise me to see Goedert have a similar line with a TD or 2. I will have a lot of exposure to Goedert this week.

    Logan Thomas @ $4.9K vs. CLE: Another guy who has seen 17 targets over the last 2 weeks, is just too underpriced and may have an even better matchup than Goedert. The Browns gave up 5/58/2 to Mark Andrews in week 1 and a combined and a combined total of 11/87/1 to Uzomah/Sample this week. I plan to have a lot of exposure to Thomas this week.

    Other I’m considering and will most likely sprinkle in

    Zach Ertz @ $6.2K vs CIN: I like Goedert more than Ertz when factoring in price, but as I mentioned above I like the matchup for the Eagles and think Wentz gets things squared away this week. Ertz has received 7 targets in each of the first 2 games and we know Wentz likes to look his way in the redzone.

    Tyler Higbee @ $6.1K vs BUF: This one is contingent on the health of BUF’s LB’s. This past week they were without Milano, Edmunds and Philips and we saw Mike Gesicki go off for 8/130/1 TD. Obviously, Higbee is coming off a huge week himself but only 9 targets in 2 games is definitely a bit scary especially at $6.1K. If the Bills are without their LB’s again, I’ll have to have some shares just because of the upside, but if the LB’s play I probably won’t have much Higbee due to the price.

    Hunter Henry @ $6K vs. CAR: Just a great matchup here and has received 8 targets in both of the first 2 games. It sounds like the Chargers are going back to Tyrod which I think actually might be okay for Henry because it might keep the game more competitive and hopefully they’ll have to throw a bit more.

    Jonnu Smith @ $5.6K vs. MIN: Has 3 TD’s in the past 2 weeks and 12 targets through 2 games is a very solid amount. If AJ Brown doesn’t play, I’ll probably have a good amount of Smith and might move him up with my core plays. Vikings just got burned by Mo Alie-Cox for 5/111 this week so it’s clearly an exploitable matchup for Smith. Losing Anthony Barr for the season shouldn’t help matters for them either.

    TJ Hockenson @ $5.4K vs. ARI: It’s only been 2 games, but ARI isn’t the free square for TE’s like it was last year. That being said, Hockenson has looked solid this season catching all 9 of his targets for a respectable 9/118/1 line. I wish the targets were a bit higher but this is a game I expect the Lions to be down in which should result in Stafford chucking the ball a lot. Will have at least some Hock shares regardless, but my end exposure will come down to if Golladay plays or not. I expect I’ll have more shares of Kittle, Goedert and Thomas regardless.

    Mo Allie-Cox @ $5K vs. NYJ: Contingent on Doyle not playing obviously (would like him if he plays) as the Colts are incredibly banged up at WR and Cox is coming off a 5/111 line. This should be a good matchup for him and I’ll probably have to have some shares due to the price.

    Chris Herndon @ $5K vs. IND: Similar to the Colts, the Jets are incredibly banged up at WR and Herndon has shown he can produce in the past. At this price, I just think the upside is too good to have zero shares of.

    Dalton Schultz @ $4.9K vs. SEA: Stepped in for Blake Jarwin this week and put up a monster 9/88/1 line. At this price, the # of targets he saw Sunday and in a game that should be a shootout, he needs to be in at least a couple of lineups.

    Drew Sample @ $4.8K vs. PHI: Stepped in once Uzomah went down and saw 10 targets. Obviously, Burrow threw the ball 61 times on Thursday which probably won’t happen again this week but the Eagles defense has not looked good and I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns out into a shootout. At this price and with a starting role locked in now, he is worthy of having some shares.

    I like Sample this week. Eagles have given it up against TEs the last 2 weeks and Burrow clearly likes throwing to his TEs.

    Good analysis.

  • Supanice

    @Njsum1 said...

    1) why?

    2) is not playing a concussion prone TE who hasn’t been good for a while supposedly on a snap count a mistake? I don’t think so. I had him in a lineup, yet I wasn’t going heavy on a player who rarely makes it through a game.

    Slot vs Bills. We were on it last week, got me 216 points and $3k. I’m sure it will be all over the podcasts this week and DK pricing will jack it up next week.

  • infantryboys

    @WrathofKhaaan said...

    Initial thoughts… there’s a ton of value on this slate.

    DAL/SEA oh so stackable…

    RB chalk looks like Chris Carson, Jonathan Taylor, Kenyan Drake. Value Mike Davis and Dion Lewis.

    With Lock out TB DST will smash.

    Giants will probably sign Freeman, which should cap Lewis upside.

  • NDNole

    @infantryboys said...

    I started playing back in 2013 and, except for contests like the Milly, payouts on both FD and DK were much flatter, with only about 15-18% of the field cashing. Also, min cash was either 2X or 2.5X.

    Am I remembering correctly and if so, why did the sites get away from this structure?

    Wish I knew. Im sure they saw where the money was going and where they got the most bang for their buck.

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