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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 24th
    8:20 PM EST : Miami ( 3 ) at Jacksonville ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, September 27th
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -1.5 ) at Minnesota ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -4 ) at NY Giants ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Cleveland ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Las Vegas ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -9.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 6 ) at LA Chargers ( -6 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( 6 ) at Arizona ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6 ) at Denver ( 6 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at New Orleans ( -4 ) —- T: —

    Monday, September 28th
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 52.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • monarch

    @hoods_from_the_wood said...

    Yeah but Ekeler and Hunt cede more carries to Kelley and Chubb than Sanders will to Scott

    Sure but the Eagles want to throw….in a perfect world they want Wentz airing it out 50 times. The other teams do not want Baker and Tyrod throwing at all if they had the choice.

  • marker0357

    so much discussion about Miles Sanders. I think he neither makes or breaks to slate.

  • monarch

    Terry McClaurin 5900. Browns without Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon and Denzel Ward did not practice Friday.

  • Randallus

    @monarch said...

    Terry McClaurin 5900. Browns without Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon and Denzel Ward did not practice Friday.

    Terry McLaurin was in the first LU I made on Monday night and he’s the only player from that LU I’m still carrying over until now.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @monarch said...

    Sure but the Eagles want to throw….in a perfect world they want Wentz airing it out 50 times. The other teams do not want Baker and Tyrod throwing at all if they had the choice.

    Not sure any NFL team goes into a game wanting their QB to throw 50 times. They’ve been throwing a lot because they’ve spent a lot of time behind. I’m sure Pederson wouldn’t mind a big lead and more runs than passes

  • Pandamonious

    • 809

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #87

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    The Bengals have a three percent adjusted sack rate. Sanders will get some receiving work but it is not as if we expect Wentz to be running around for his life and checking down. Big reason as to why Ekeler and Hunt did little in the receiving game vs them….they were not needed.

    Do you know how many times Wentz was hurried last Sunday when Sanders had 7 targets, and in turn, how many of those 7 targets were just check downs versus designed plays?

  • marker0357

    @monarch said...

    Terry McClaurin 5900. Browns without Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon and Denzel Ward did not practice Friday.

    now that is juicy news

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @marker0357 said...

    now that is juicy news

    So you think McClaurin has a better chance of breaking the slate than Sanders?

  • marker0357

    @hoods_from_the_wood said...

    So you think McClaurin has a better chance of breaking the slate than Sanders?

    comparatively yes. In my bizarro world view, it’s not just about raw points but also about value and ownership. I think there is more variance and potential outcomes of receivers with as much or nearly as much upside.

  • monarch

    @Pandamonious said...

    Do you know how many times Wentz was hurried last Sunday when Sanders had 7 targets, and in turn, how many of those 7 targets were just check downs versus designed plays?

    I don’t know. I don’t sub to anywhere. I do know they never had a lead and trailed for over the final 55 minutes of the game. Negative game script

  • Logan7777

    I don’t think either have the chance.

  • NDNole

    @Randallus said...

    Also this. Mack is out for Hurst in ways you don’t know. /s

    Well hurst smashed so he has the irrevocable W.

  • NDNole

    @monarch said...

    Not quite Marshall Faulk

    No one is quite marshal faulk. Not even CMC.

  • NDNole

    @monarch said...

    Terry McClaurin 5900. Browns without Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon and Denzel Ward did not practice Friday.

    Im 100% on scary terry.

  • Njsum1

    @NDNole said...

    Im 100% on scary terry.

    You trust Haskins and the Wash offense enough to be 100% on one of his pass catchers?

    I like MCLauren and Logan Thomas a lot as well, yet 100%…idk

  • zacsby

    @Njsum1 said...

    You trust Haskins and the Wash offense enough to be 100% on one of his pass catchers?

    I like MCLauren and Logan Thomas a lot as well, yet 100%…idk

    I’d be less worried about Haskins and more worried about if they’re even gonna have to throw like that. I see so many ugly game scripts this week, that game being up there on the list.

  • NDNole

    @Njsum1 said...

    You trust Haskins and the Wash offense enough to be 100% on one of his pass catchers?

    I like MCLauren and Logan Thomas a lot as well, yet 100%…idk

    This week I do. Its just one of those things. Gotta take a stand. Im crashing or big time cashing this year lol. Playing it safe the last year didnt do me any favors.

  • winnerchickendinner

    Projected ownership on Evans? Dionte smashed on the same left side last week.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    Week 3 Projections and pOWN (industry average). Probably should have run this tomorrow as I feel some of the ownership #‘s are off (especially on Singletary and the value WRs) but I have plans so this will have to do.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfZbZJK9pMWr_Oiw4hfpYP6lyjcH6ktX98mKpLbpsKw/edit?usp=sharing

  • NDNole

    @thehazyone said...

    Week 3 Projections and pOWN (industry average). Probably should have run this tomorrow as I feel some of the ownership #‘s are off (especially on Singletary and the value WRs) but I have plans so this will have to do.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfZbZJK9pMWr_Oiw4hfpYP6lyjcH6ktX98mKpLbpsKw/edit?usp=sharing

    Thanks!

  • zacsby

    Less than 10%. Maybe even 5? He’s def going to fly under the radar with Godwin back. I’d mix him in a little bit in GPPs but I wouldn’t go for a ton of exposure.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    so if anyone is wondering how I come up with the projections. I subscribe to six different sites (the ones you probably know about and love). I take the average projections and pOWN for those sites to compile the sheet. I do adjust the pOWN however to make sure it adds up to 100 for QB and DST, 245 for RB, 345 for WR, 110 for TE to more accurately weight it. I’ve been doing it for four years and have found it to be more accurate than any individual one site. I was actually listening to the High Stakes Pod by Andrew Wiggins this week and he mentioned that this is exactly what he used to do before relying on ETR’s projections starting last season so it’s good to know the methodology is something that appeals to the high stakes community. The main thing I use if for is 1) value plays and 2) pivot plays (similarly projected players at much lower ownership). I won’t be around much until tomorrow night but I think this is a really good week for GPP’s and pivot plays not named Kenyan Drake (everyone is trying to make him this week’s Aaron Jones, but he’s going to be much too popular imo).

  • Randallus

    @thehazyone said...

    Week 3 Projections and pOWN (industry average). Probably should have run this tomorrow as I feel some of the ownership #‘s are off (especially on Singletary and the value WRs) but I have plans so this will have to do.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hfZbZJK9pMWr_Oiw4hfpYP6lyjcH6ktX98mKpLbpsKw/edit?usp=sharing

    You’re a saint.

  • noddy

    Washington moneyline is the bet of the week

  • Randallus

    So based on pOWN from Hazy, the chalk players are what was expected.

    Some notable low pOWN at WR at first glance: Curtis Samuel, Braxton Berrios, Chris Hogan, Robby Anderson (sign me the eff up), Keenan Allen, Russell Gage

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