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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 24th
    8:20 PM EST : Miami ( 3 ) at Jacksonville ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Sunday, September 27th
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -1.5 ) at Minnesota ( 1.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( -4 ) at NY Giants ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Atlanta ( -3 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 6.5 ) at Cleveland ( -6.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Las Vegas ( 6.5 ) at New England ( -6.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Buffalo ( -2.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 6.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -6.5 ) —- T: 46
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 9.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -9.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 6 ) at LA Chargers ( -6 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Detroit ( 6 ) at Arizona ( -6 ) —- T: 53
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -6 ) at Denver ( 6 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 3.5 ) at Seattle ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at New Orleans ( -4 ) —- T: —

    Monday, September 28th
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3 ) at Baltimore ( -3 ) —- T: 52.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @BIF said...

    How come there is no Cardinals DST projection ?

    Looks like I accidentally deleted their line entry – projected for 6.5 at 3% pOWN

  • zacsby

    People are talking about SF like Reed didn’t have 7/50/2 last week and Shanahan can’t get production out of just about any RB. I like Aiyuk, he could def take one to the house. But seems like people are gravitating to the shiny new toy a bit on this one. I see a lot of running, check downs to McKinnon and redzone targets for Reed…and not much leftover. Mullens has a rapport with Bourne from last year as well. So yeah if I get beat by Aiyuk this week I can live with it. Lol

  • 866

    Liking the LV DST also as a low cost, zero owned filler.. feel like N E /Newton could dud

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @JCappy said...

    please play a jet in our 4 man ….. i already convinced hayzone to play herndon

    not only am I playing Herndon, I’m not playing Kyler or Hopkins.

  • MrFreeze53

    @thehazyone said...

    not only am I playing Herndon, I’m not playing Kyler or Hopkins.

    How crazy is it in a year long to start Henderson over CEH?

  • miggs6876

    @Csquared1987 said...

    I only play on FD. He’s only $4800 over there, and yeah I think SF falls behind tomorrow, and I don’t think 25% snap playing Jordan Reed lucks into 2TDs again. Aiyuk should 6+ targets tomorrow

    I’m not buying the Aiyuk love. I’ll pay down to Humphries, Hamler, Pittman, Lamb, etc…i might throw him in 1 or 2 line ups just in case you are right.

  • miggs6876

    @866 said...

    Liking the LV DST also as a low cost, zero owned filler.. feel like N E /Newton could dud

    Why would you feel likw he will did? He’s on fire passing and running. The pats are playing to his strengths and his confidence is very high. I think he smashes tomorrow.

  • Csquared1987

    @zacsby said...

    People are talking about SF like Reed didn’t have 7/50/2 last week and Shanahan can’t get production out of just about any RB. I like Aiyuk, he could def take one to the house. But seems like people are gravitating to the shiny new toy a bit on this one. I see a lot of running, check downs to McKinnon and redzone targets for Reed…and not much leftover. Mullens has a rapport with Bourne from last year as well. So yeah if I get beat by Aiyuk this week I can live with it. Lol

    Reed also played like 30% of the snaps last week… he lucked into 2 TDs

  • lotusbomb

    Im coming in late on the arizona stacking convo, but I used rodgers/jones/adams a lot week one. jones was the only one who was a let down at 17 FP.

    detroit and stafford in particular played bad last week. I think they stay within two scores most of the game preventing the cardinals from mailing it in and milking clock until the very end

    I think a murray/drake/hopkins stack is more or less the same price as the green bay one was week 1, it can definitely work

  • Csquared1987

    @lotusbomb said...

    Im coming in late on the arizona stacking convo, but I used rodgers/jones/adams a lot week one. jones was the only one who was a let down at 17 FP.

    detroit and stafford in particular played bad last week. I think they stay within two scores most of the game preventing the cardinals from mailing it in and milking clock until the very end

    I think a murray/drake/hopkins stack is more or less the same price as the green bay one was week 1, it can definitely work

    17 FP ain’t really a let down lol.

  • BIF

    @Csquared1987 said...

    Sanu only played like 15 snaps last week. I think SF falls behind and Aiyuk is literally the only deep threat they have on the squad. Taylor is an underneath guy, Bourne is a possession underneath guy as well. Aiyuk is their prized 1st round pick…. he should smash tomorrow

    I don’t think any SF WR smashes as they’ll stay with their run first game plan unless they are down 2 or more scores and that is unlikely to the Giants.

    Bourne is more than a possession underneath guy; people might think that but it’s because he runs about 50% of his routes out of the slot so a lot of his catches were from there – he can get open downfield too; he’s be my favorite 49er WR this week if I was going to play one.

  • zacsby

    @Csquared1987 said...

    Reed also played like 30% of the snaps last week… he lucked into 2 TDs

    Yeah and what percentage of those snaps was he targeted on? Most other teams, no, you don’t want to be relying on a TE with that kind of snap share. But SF is one of the few teams that uses the TE as a primary weapon. When they run the ball down into the redzone, Reed will be on the field and they will be trying to get him the ball. I’m not saying he’s going to smash. Just saying thats more looks that aren’t going to Aiyuk.

  • BIF

    @thehazyone said...

    Looks like I accidentally deleted their line entry – projected for 6.5 at 3% pOWN

    👍

  • BIF

    @MrFreeze53 said...

    How crazy is it in a year long to start Henderson over CEH?

    Very silly if it’s PPR as CEH probably sees 5 targets as KC will want to keep Mahomes upright and the check down may be in full play.

  • BIF

    @866 said...

    Liking the LV DST also as a low cost, zero owned filler.. feel like N E /Newton could dud

    Short week (Mon night game and now early Sun game) and travel for the Raiders – Gruden runs his studs into the ground, both Jacobs and Waller barely practiced as they are still healing from a heavy work load. I doubt they dominate the Pats the same way they did the Saints in stretches. I’ll have a couple of the Pats D but no Raiders D for me

    Raiders D is nothing more than a punt play that needs a turnover/score to pay off as they will give up 20+ points and you aren’t going to sack Cam a ton as he’ll scramble for a small gain.

  • Ether

    Anyone else on the lions passing attack? I’m liking stafford/mjj/hockenson

  • miggs6876

    @Ether said...

    Anyone else on the lions passing attack? I’m liking stafford/mjj/hockenson

    I have one line up with a Lions stack just in case. They get an up pace game vs Arizona. So it’s a contrarian play that could pay off.

  • 33BeRad

    @Ether said...

    Anyone else on the lions passing attack? I’m liking stafford/mjj/hockenson

    I get the appeal, I’m not on it. But I am only doing about 8 different lineups, mostly with Cam and Russ at QB. 1 weird one with D Jones, I like Slayton and think Jones can run some against SF. and 1 with Burrow because I like that matchup against Philly pass def. Stacking Burrow with Sample and Boyd, bringing it back with Djax

  • 33BeRad

    @33BeRad said...

    I get the appeal, I’m not on it. But I am only doing about 8 different lineups, mostly with Cam and Russ at QB. 1 weird one with D Jones, I like Slayton and think Jones can run some against SF. and 1 with Burrow because I like that matchup against Philly pass def. Stacking Burrow with Sample and Boyd, bringing it back with Djax

    My Jones lineup I am considering swapping out for a Watson or getting even weirder with Cousins.

  • BIF

    Texans gave up 34 and 33 while the Steelers scored 26 both games and nobody talking about a Big Ben play at QB. He’s not one of my top plays at QB but I can see a decent game for him

  • 33BeRad

    @BIF said...

    Texans gave up 34 and 33 while the Steelers scored 26 both games and nobody talking about a Big Ben play at QB. He’s not one of my top plays at QB but I can see a decent game for him

    To the Chiefs and Ravens. Yes, Hou def is garbage but I think they win this one somehow. Maybe just a Pitt letdown or Hou off finds some sort of groove. Not sure why I have that feeling.

  • Ether

    @miggs6876 said...

    I have one line up with a Lions stack just in case. They get an up pace game vs Arizona. So it’s a contrarian play that could pay off.

    Yea i can see lions having a big day. Im not completely buying into arizona defense as They’ve played the 49ers without kittle most of game and washington. Golladay being back should help, I expect them to play from behind, and I’m not sure they will be able to run the ball effectively.

  • Ether

    @33BeRad said...

    To the Chiefs and Ravens. Yes, Hou def is garbage but I think they win this one somehow. Maybe just a Pitt letdown or Hou off finds some sort of groove. Not sure why I have that feeling.

    I agree, I have Houston as one of my few upsets in my pool this week. I can see Watson having a good game and it’s almost a must win

  • synth

    I didn’t have as much time as last week to post around here but I’ve got some time tonight. First things first: I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to max enter GPPs. Making the shift to dropping down in stakes and doing the 150 entries has been eye opening. I definitely suggest the GPP players here that aren’t doing so to bite the bullet and follow suit. Being able to attack positive spots from multiple angles, brush off injury issues, and take stabs at good pivots while covering the chalk has made things so much easier (and more profitable!).

    As for this week:

    Stacks

    My tier 1 stacks are the same as most in Ari/Dal/Sea. Nothing interesting there but wanted to mention it.

    My tier 2 stacks are Pit (Ben/Dionte/Juju bringing it back with Fuller or Cooks), Philly (Various combos of Wentz/Jackson/Ertz/Goeddert bringing back with one of Boyd/Mixon/Green), and Cleveland (Baker/OBJ/Landry bringing it back with McLaurin).

    I think Pit has been good offensively this year and now they get a defense that’s not performed well thus far. One argument is “KC/Balt can make anyone look bad”. I argue that both teams took their foot off the gas at halftime and each could have dropped 50 if they wanted to. Dionte has been floated as one of the best WR values this week and a nice way to get that value + differentiate is to stack him with Ben/Juju. Watson is going to have to go superman to keep this one close so I’m looking at Fuller or Cooks to produce well in a spot that many will avoid. I think scenarios exist with Ben going 300/3 and each WR scoring at a low stack ownership %.

    Everyone is on Sanders (and I will be too in other lineups) but I think this is a great spot to target the Philly passing game. After two rough games, a home game against the Bengals is a great spot to get Wentz right. I think most people are expecting 24+ points from Philly (hence the massive Sanders chalk) and scenarios exist where they come from Wentz hitting his TEs or a deep one to Jackson. Jackson was primed to be megachalk week one when Reagor was slated to miss but now isn’t really getting the same love now that Reagor IS out and the matchup is better. I’m even getting some double TE action in this one with some Wentz/Goedder/Ertz lineups sprinkled in. The bring back on this one is less certain than the Houston/Washington ones in this tier. Both Green and Boyd have potential to light it up and I like Mixon a fair amount this week as well. I’ll probably have more of this stack than I should, but I just really like the spot.

    With Cleveland, I think it’s a spot where most of the public thinks Washington has a bad rush defense and good pass defense while I think it’s the opposite. As such, I want to attack it. Cleveland is projected for 26ish points at home against a bad team with two talented WRs and I believe the same scenarios exist for Baker/OBJ/Landry as I do for Ben/Juju/Dionte earlier – except at even lower ownership.

    Individual players Im overweight on

    WR – Theilen – Kupp – Juju – OBJ

    RB – Mixon – Swift – Cook

    Best of luck to everyone this week

  • Randallus

    @sfguy21 said...

    Its not a bad play. but youre praying for 5 catches and 1 TD. this is going to be a run game.

    As a fan I love what Aiyuk can bring us, but no one is going to be used heavily. Niners and trying to get in and get out without anyone else dying. Thats more important than a win at this point.

    This. Aiyuk doesn’t spark confidence for me in that SF offense. Short of Mostert and Kittle, no one has produced at a consistent rate in that offense. SF are very good at spreading the ball out minus those two players. It’s too unpredictable, and while I don’t mind throwing darts and seeing what sticks, Aiyuk hasn’t proven anything yet for me to trust him. Too many cheap WRs in DK this week for me to risk it with Aiyuk.

    At least with McKinnon and JWJ, we’re almost guaranteed to see some touches there.

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