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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 23rd
    8:20 PM EST : Carolina ( -7.5 ) at Houston ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43

    Sunday, September 26th
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 5 ) at Tennessee ( -5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3 ) at New England ( -3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: 55
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 7.5 ) at Cleveland ( -7.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9.5 ) at Buffalo ( -9.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -7 ) at Jacksonville ( 7 ) —- T: 52
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 11 ) at Denver ( -11 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 5.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -1 ) at Minnesota ( 1 ) —- T: 55
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 54.5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at San Francisco ( -4 ) —- T: 47.5

    Monday, September 27th
    8:15 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4 ) at Dallas ( -4 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • JCappy

    @superjon said...

    Any of you DK guys double stack the defenses?

    That has been the optimal move on roughly 0/46 Showdown contests thus far.

  • RipCityRings

    @JCappy said...

    I feel like forcing a contrarian move is losing proposition most of the time. The contests that I finish high in are usually the most blatant lineups. It’s remarkable how many people still aren’t playing dual QB’s when it is optimal more often than not. Or, how many entries don’t play RB’s that have 8 target upside. I won the DET/BAL contest with Lamar-Andrews-Tucker-Goff-Swift-Raymond. Finished top 10 in DC/BUF with Allen-Knox-Sanders-Heinicke-Gibson-Dyami. I have just simplified my process by playing both QB’s, a pass catching RB and three pass catchers (or kicker) that will be on the field 60% of the snaps.

    Well to be fair, Zay Jones got me 1st week one and Juszczyk got me 46th last night, both sub-5% guys. I’d say those were relatively contrarian plays.

  • Skee

    @JCappy said...

    I feel like forcing a contrarian move is losing proposition most of the time. The contests that I finish high in are usually the most blatant lineups. It’s remarkable how many people still aren’t playing dual QB’s when it is optimal more often than not. Or, how many entries don’t play RB’s that have 8 target upside. I won the DET/BAL contest with Lamar-Andrews-Tucker-Goff-Swift-Raymond. Finished top 10 in DC/BUF with Allen-Knox-Sanders-Heinicke-Gibson-Dyami. I have just simplified my process by playing both QB’s, a pass catching RB and three pass catchers (or kicker) that will be on the field 60% of the snaps.

    Both QBs is the FD bible. I thought with the full PPR on DK maybe its different but I am brand new over there.

  • JCappy

    @RipCityRings said...

    Well to be fair, Zay Jones got me 1st week one and Juszczyk got me 46th last night, both sub-5% guys. I’d say those were relatively contrarian plays.

    I absolutely agree that it makes sense when calculated! I just disagree with moving from Devonta Smith to Jalen Reagor just because he’ll be lesser owned.

  • bigwillie20

    @JCappy said...

    I’ve played every Showdown this season thus far and have compiled a nice spreadsheet of optimal roster constructions. If anyone would want to take a look, I can share it later on.

    I just auto play both QB’s no matter how bad they are now. Wondering what the % of optimal’s have both QB’s, if I need to rethink doing that or not.

  • JCappy

    @Skee said...

    Both QBs is the FD bible. I thought with the full PPR on DK maybe its different but I am brand new over there.

    23/46 optimal lineups have used both thus far. I don’t have the ability to calculate the rate that the field has used both but it’s probably in the 30-35 range. I always start with both, but if it’s something like Zach Wilson against Denver? Probably not.

  • RipCityRings

    @JCappy said...

    I absolutely agree that it makes sense when calculated! I just disagree with moving from Devonta Smith to Jalen Reagor just because he’ll be lesser owned.

    Yeah, I’m guessing the handful of people who played that Crosby lineup also had the Kittle version. Hard to make those kind of plays without maxing, but the best way to lose at showdown is playing it safe.

  • Skee

    lol this ref on replay? It feels like a score? Well, you can’t see it but I like it as a score? ????

  • JCappy

    @bigwillie20 said...

    I just auto play both QB’s no matter how bad they are now. Wondering what the % of optimal’s have both QB’s, if I need to rethink doing that or not.

    It’s roughly half. It’s been 23/46 thus far — which is higher than what the field does.

  • RipCityRings

    Definitely going to regret not making a Zeke/Pollard lineup at this rate.

  • JCappy

    The way Dallas’ defense and run game has looked these last 1.5 weeks have me regretting my Dak season long shares. Not sure we’re gonna get 5k passer.

  • RudyPujols

    ‘Boys are going to have more 1st Downs tonight than Philly has plays.

    Historic time of possession is in play, too, though I’m sure it will fizzle out to something stupid lopsided but not too rare.

  • JCappy

    @RudyPujols said...

    ‘Boys are going to have more 1st Downs tonight than Philly has plays.

    Historic time of possession is in play, too, though I’m sure it will fizzle out to something stupid lopsided but unhistoric.

    I’ve seen enough NFC East games to know that this one will be 30-24 with 2 minutes left and Philly has the ball going for the win.

  • RipCityRings

    Time to load up on the 2H Eagles passing attack.

  • superjon

    @RipCityRings said...

    Time to load up on the 2H Eagles passing attack.

    Gimme Quez plz

  • RipCityRings

    See, less than a minute in and Hurts already threw a TD.

  • cdub6238

    Eagles can’t get out of their own way…

    Oline can’t block…wr/te can’t catch..wr falling down now

  • skankinmat

    Double defense stackers finally going to win a Milly?

  • Skee

    @skankinmat said...

    Double defense stackers finally going to win a Milly?

    Possibly, but it looks like Goedert would pass the D with like a 16 yard catch. I guess maybe if it was a build that couldn’t afford him

    But I think a double D would have to be able to get up to him pretty much, right? I am only in single entries and not the milly so I don’t know what the top of that one looks like

  • skankinmat

    @Skee said...

    Possibly, but it looks like Goedert would pass the D with like a 16 yard catch. I guess maybe if it was a build that couldn’t afford him

    But I think a double D would have to be able to get up to him pretty much, right? I am only in single entries and not the milly so I don’t know what the top of that one looks like

    I think Eagles will be picking up some garbage yards here in the 2nd half so doubt the double D stackers do anything but middling cash unless we get another defensive TD…which could def happen

  • JCappy

    @skankinmat said...

    I think Eagles will be picking up some garbage yards here in the 2nd half so doubt the double D stackers do anything but middling cash unless we get another defensive TD…which could def happen

    It probably won’t happen. I’d imagine Dallas D falls out of the optimal lineup with Philadelphia going pass happy. We probably get one of their pass catchers added in with Hurts, Dak, Zeke, Schultz, Goedert/Ertz

  • JCappy

    Dak takes that in with ease in his younger days.

  • ifthethunder

    Too bad my CPT Ertz lineup is full of Cowpoke snowflakes. Also, my hovercraft is full of eels.

    https://omniglot.com/language/phrases/hovercraft.htm
    ~

  • ifthethunder

    I wake up to see Dalton Schultz was the key. Had zero.
    ~

  • mattspot10

    Of the 50% of showdown lineups that have both QBs, do they put one of them in the captain spot or both in the flex? Thanks for the info, definitely helpful!

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