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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, September 23rd
    8:20 PM EST : Carolina ( -7.5 ) at Houston ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43

    Sunday, September 26th
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 5 ) at Tennessee ( -5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( 3 ) at New England ( -3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: 55
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -7.5 ) at Detroit ( 7.5 ) —- T: 49
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 7.5 ) at Cleveland ( -7.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 9.5 ) at Buffalo ( -9.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -7 ) at Jacksonville ( 7 ) —- T: 52
    4:05 PM EST : NY Jets ( 11 ) at Denver ( -11 ) —- T: 41.5
    4:05 PM EST : Miami ( 5.5 ) at Las Vegas ( -5.5 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:25 PM EST : Seattle ( -1 ) at Minnesota ( 1 ) —- T: 55
    4:25 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 1 ) at LA Rams ( -1 ) —- T: 54.5
    8:20 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at San Francisco ( -4 ) —- T: 47.5

    Monday, September 27th
    8:15 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4 ) at Dallas ( -4 ) —- T: 51.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • emnj69

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    I’ll take Ty Johnson for 3k Alex

    get ready to see this on Sunday-

  • emnj69

    @factorial89 said...

    question-are nfl teaser plays sucker bets.

    like anything else not if done correctly-the chiefs have been beyond awful vs the spread for a while now but when u give them that six points it is a MUCH different story-bet on the chiefs past two weeks with the line u lost -teased u win

  • Getty33

    @factorial89 said...

    question-are nfl teaser plays sucker bets.

    No, not really. In fact it can play to your advantage and prevent a heart breaking bad beat on many games. It’s amazing how many times a 6 point teaser covers both sides of the same game. These oddsmakers are good. Strong numbers on opening lines are -3.5, -4, -4.5, -7.5, 10,10.5, and 14. Tease the favorites at these numbers. Weak lines are -1.5 to -2.5, -5 to -6.5, -9.5, and 12 or 12.5. Tease underdogs at those numbers. See how simple it is?

  • factorial89

    yep. i checked and chiefs are 2-11 ATS in last 13 games.

  • TrustinthePlan

    @emnj69 said...

    name the amount what about?

    Anyways, I do think C Patterson is the play this week if Gage sits.

  • jcotdl

    i personally like CPatt- but if Gage is out/ limited, wouldn’t Pitts be a logical pivot for the underneath routes?

  • JTL33

    @jcotdl said...

    i personally like CPatt- but if Gage is out/ limited, wouldn’t Pitts be a logical pivot for the underneath routes?

    I play Pitts every week so this is the case regardless for me haha

  • NDNole

    If Dalvin is out I think Theilan smashes as he will get lots of redzone targets.

  • dimestorez

    Is Darius Slayton even worth considering for large field tournaments with Golladay in the mix now in NY?

  • thedkexperience

    @factorial89 said...

    question-are nfl teaser plays sucker bets.

    Mostly yes. The bets I have the most success with are straight bets or single game parlays.

    Honestly with a single score being worth 6 points in the NFL and a tease being 6 points there’s just so many ways that a ball bounce can render your tease pointless that I’m not a fan.

  • thedkexperience

    @dimestorez said...

    Is Darius Slayton even worth considering for large field tournaments with Golladay in the mix now in NY?

    Golladay was in the mix last week and Slayton still saw the ball plenty. If his arms were 2 inches longer we’d be saying how Slayton is a lock this week.

  • TopDawgs07

    Early in the week, but I like WFT +7 and Miami +4. Any other lines that stand out to anyone? I’m still working on TDKE’s prop bet portion of game lines.

  • winnerchickendinner

    For tomorrow’s showdown I’m probably only going to play Miller since Amendola is out but of course he’s going to be chalky at $1,000 on DK. Know it’s only two weeks but the Panthers defense has been on a mission. Four sacks against the Saints along with six against the Jets. Saints are missing one on their good line I believe so that was a good performance although they have Winston back there. Mills is probably going to be off chemistry wise with everyone. Ingram and the rest of the backs are a no with the Panthers shutting down Kamara even in the passing game.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    So Cook and Henry the cash locks of the week with Cook taking on the team that Henry just killed and Henry getting 5 targets a game now and catching 90% of them

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @factorial89 said...

    question-are nfl teaser plays sucker bets.

    If you’re a sucker. You need a betting strategy and you need to be aware of what tools are available. If you’re forcing in teasers every week you’ll probably lose but if you’re capping some games and see something you like that can be teased efficiently then maybe you want to go for it.

  • Smallchimp

    Finally set up a bit of a cheat sheet to look at receiver usage. What I’m noticing is that Ridley, Jefferson, AJ Brown, and Claypool have a fairly sizable chunk of their team’s total air yards, percent of target share, and fairly low conversion rates on their targeted air yards. I’d imagine this is as good a pool of receivers to keep going to the well for hoping for an uptick of conversion.

    Would love some ownership numbers to have a better idea of who’s being slept on as far as under-the-radar high target share/air yard share. Not the most unheard-of metrics, but it’s still early in the season and not every trend is going to be noticed by the field.

  • Smallchimp

    As far as target-funnel offenses go:

    - I didn’t realize how much of a funnel the passing game is towards Brown and Watkins. The pair make up nearly 58% of all targets and over 70% of the air yards. Not too shabby.

    - The Cincy trio is as advertised— over 70% of targets go to the receivers and effectively all of the air yards go them. Boyd’s price is the lowest, but the shallowness of targets is a bummer.

    - Cleveland is the exact opposite of a target funnel offense. No receiver thus far has gotten over 17% of targets. If you’re betting on the air yards, it’s Njoku and Schwartz, but even their numbers are uninspiring thus far. Betting on usage there.

    - Kupp is the one-man show in LAR. Paying sub-$7000 for one of the better offenses in the league thus far seems like a winning proposition until it stops working

    - The Pittsburg trio is headlined by Diontae’s 32% target share thus far with a respectable 35% of his team’s air yards. Claypool looks like the bigger home run guy, but at a lower target share of 19%. Juju has the same number of targets as Claypool, but at a much lower depth of target. The three make up 70% of targets and almost the entire vertical passing attack.

    - Seattle’s a two-headed monster with DK and Lockett at the same target share, but Lockett’s catching most of what goes his way, even at a considerably higher depth of target. Metcalf’s due to start converting air yards soon, so I’m happy to place the bet.

    If anyone has any takes on this, let’s get going! I tried to highlight the most consolidated passing offenses, but I’m sure there’s more to gain beyond this.

  • BIF

    @emnj69 said...

    cant believe I am typing this but C patterson is the play

    That was last week 😉

    Against the Bucs when they were down 2 scores, that’s when CPat got the ball. I don’t see them getting far enough behind the G-man to get enough usage that would lead to more than 10-12 FP

  • BIF

    @squidkill said...

    Well, BIF plays CPatt in Cash, so maybe you are onto something. LOL

    I don’t play chalk “free squares” who bust in cash like 75% of my opponents – I play guys in obvious high usage spots in good game scripts.

    There is a non-zero chance that I never play CPatt again all season even in GPP but last week was the pass catching RB2 smash spot against the Bucs. We already knew going in Davis was in a dud spot and the Bucs would lead all game so the CPatt usage was going to happen as the Bucs have no problem giving up the short dump offs.

    Pay attention Squid

  • BIF

    @emnj69 said...

    like anything else not if done correctly-the chiefs have been beyond awful vs the spread for a while now but when u give them that six points it is a MUCH different story-bet on the chiefs past two weeks with the line u lost -teased u win

    For the record, a 24 point teaser on the Chiefs would have still been a loser in the Super Bowl
    😂

  • AdamBski

    For anyone in the Chicagoland area that doesn’t have the barstool sportsbook account yet. This weekend is the week to get it. Special promo. Bears with the spread boosted to +1985. Max 100$ bet. Hopefully lil Justin Fields pulls this off. Speaking of him, anyone going there for GPPs??

  • marker0357

    @BIF said...

    For the record, a 24 point teaser on the Chiefs would have still been a loser in the Super Bowl
    😂

    BIF rockin’ it tonight!

  • Lbb11

    In the main slate? I was considering him for the pm slate but couldn’t pull the trigger. Takes quijones.

  • Smallchimp

    Wondering if it’s just more opportune to live in the $6K range at WR. M. Brown has the match-up and the usage, Kupp is the Rams offense at sub-$7000, the Titans receivers both have good matchups and fair usage, Mike Williams is evidently back, and Diontae Johnson is peppered (albeit in a bad matchup supposedly)

  • squidkill

    @BIF said...

    I don’t play chalk “free squares” who bust in cash like 75% of my opponents – I play guys in obvious high usage spots in good game scripts.

    There is a non-zero chance that I never play CPatt again all season even in GPP but last week was the pass catching RB2 smash spot against the Bucs. We already knew going in Davis was in a dud spot and the Bucs would lead all game so the CPatt usage was going to happen as the Bucs have no problem giving up the short dump offs.

    Pay attention Squid

    i get the thesis of the play, however, i enjoy messing with you more 🤣🤷‍♂️

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