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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/28
    8:25 PM EST : Chicago ( 7.5 ) at Green Bay ( -7.5 ) —- T: 45.5

    Sunday, 10/1
    9:30 AM EST : New Orleans ( -2.5 ) at Miami ( 2.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -3 ) at Baltimore ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 0 ) at Minnesota ( 0 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( -3.5 ) at NY Jets ( 3.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 9 ) at New England ( -9 ) —- T: 48.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -3.5 ) at Cleveland ( 3.5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Rams ( 6 ) at Dallas ( -6 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 8 ) at Atlanta ( -8 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:05 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3 ) at Tampa Bay ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    4:05 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 2.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    4:05 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7 ) at Arizona ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : Oakland ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    8:30 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 13 ) at Seattle ( -13 ) —- T: 41.5

    Monday, 10/2
    8:30 PM EST : Washington ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @Dadeano860 said...

    Zeke was my lean, but inching to Shady. Would you care to rank the RBs as you feel are best cash plays? I’m going crazy this week, I can really find a reason to play (in brief):

    Bell- Williams is banged up, he’s the Ravens run defense. He’s better on the road.

    Imagine if this was Zeke’s rookie year and the only body of evidence we had was this year, what would you pay for him in this matchup? About what D. Cook ($6500) or Fournette ($6,700) is going for is my best guess. Same usage, great setups, why pay more?

    L.Bell- Some coaches are all about fooling the masses, Tomlin is NOT one of them. He says they are simplifying things he is basically telling you we are going to give the ball to Bell 30-35 times and pass it to him another 5. What would you pay for that? We paid 10k last year and without that DT we may find out that run D is middling at best. On the very first drive you are going to see BELL handling the ball over and over again, think “boy that TOmlin sure does tell it like it is” and be happy you rostered him.

    30-35 rushes, 5 catches behind a great O-line that has underperformed and a D on the other side that is getting healthy and is super angry. I love PIT to control this game, time of possesion and field position, and Bell to smash for first time this year and the only time I will be on him. Think he is a great pivot in the flex off of AJ, OBJ and JULIO because between them they will not touch the ball as much as Bell and EVERYBODY will have 1 of the 3, nobody will be on Bell.

    Dez- He is going to get 10-15 tgts in a high scoring game and has more TD equity than just about any WR in the game. Do not overthink it with the matchup or lock in Nuk instead, get exposure somewhere. Watson may only throw for 220 this game and when you run around like that it increases variance to the WR’s who are NOT the number one options. Dick Lebeau will bring pressure and try to confuse him and this should increase his running game, increase OTHER wr’s involvement and reduce NUK’s upside. NUK could work still but DEZ IS going to get his chances especially in the red zone. The distance between DEZ and the second and third options on that offense is growing as fast as Dak’s ability to carry the team. It’s a wonderful combo for DFS purposes.

  • monarch

    @sanders_tj said...

    Um…

    There’s no one in the league who averages more touches per game than Dalvin Cook who’s not named Todd Gurley. Why do you think Carson will get more touches than Cook? He averages less than 14 touches per game. You’re also implying that Cook won’t get favorable game script? He is playing at home, as a favorite, and the Vikings offense runs through him, especially that they are starting their back up QB again.

    If there is any running back who is set for 25 touches this weekend, it’s Dalvin Cook.

    1300 price savings on FD and Carson won’t be playing with Case Keenum and running directly into the best run stuffer in recent history.

  • GTRandy27

    @Quadhole said...

    0 then 3 then 5 and now 4 ? Not feeling the flow. It is time for a break… Maybe 2

    That’s the thing. I think I can get 2tds from Carson Palmer at a much cheaper point, and be able to get someone like Gronk or Melvin Gordon in my flex for cash…

  • jessedio

    @noddy said...

    OK everyone. Who are you top 2 cash game plays this week?

    Fitz and Nuk super chalk for cash games.

  • Quadhole

    @Alexg85 said...

    Ya know, i absolutely hate this week and i wish I skipped it. Bell/Zeke/Gurley/Fournette/Cook/McCoy/Freeman/McCaffrey/Mixon

    AB/Julio/Obj/AJG/Keenan and then the onslaught of mid tier receivers

    Fitz/Hopkins/Shepard/Jackson/Matthews/Hurns to name a few

    Gronk/Ertz/Brate/Engram/Cook/Griffin to make a few TE in good shape

    Just about all in great spots i believe all of these are in just the 12 game slate. I’m going bust this week I know it. At first i had a gameplan for my tournaments, i have 8 lineups on DK $3-$12 tournament, and now they are just a mashup of all of these players at random basically after going in and fiddling back and forth. I need to go back to the drawing board and get serious on which players/games I like most and just do slight variances in TE and D i think. Anyone else having these issues?

    I guess my lineups should consist of all of those players I did not feel safe with ftw? Cooks, Gordon, Evans, and so on

    Somebody writes that each week. It is usually just over thinking it. I will bet you are really good at this like others on here… Just stick to what you know and remember you are not playing each game and a lot of those things are out of your control…
    Good Luck

  • Dadeano860

    @monarch said...

    1300 price savings on FD and Carson won’t be playing with Case Keenum and running directly into the best run stuffer in recent history.

    Are you talking about Suh? Hankins is a better run stuffer than him right now.

  • Dadeano860

    @mike42 said...

    Imagine if this was Zeke’s rookie year and the only body of evidence we had was this year, what would you pay for him in this matchup? About what D. Cook ($6500) or Fournette ($6,700) is going for is my best guess. Same usage, great setups, why pay more?

    L.Bell- Some coaches are all about fooling the masses, Tomlin is NOT one of them. He says they are simplifying things he is basically telling you we are going to give the ball to Bell 30-35 times and pass it to him another 5. What would you pay for that? We paid 10k last year and without that DT we may find out that run D is middling at best. On the very first drive you are going to see BELL handling the ball over and over again, think “boy that TOmlin sure does tell it like it is” and be happy you rostered him.

    30-35 rushes, 5 catches behind a great O-line that has underperformed and a D on the other side that is getting healthy and is super angry. I love PIT to control this game, time of possesion and field position, and Bell to smash for first time this year and the only time I will be on him. Think he is a great pivot in the flex off of AJ, OBJ and JULIO because between them they will not touch the ball as much as Bell and EVERYBODY will have 1 of the 3, nobody will be on Bell.

    Nice take. Makes a lot of sense. Going to have to take a stand for cash. I don’t see any “chalk” RB jumping out for cash. Thanks for this take, has me thinking. So I assume Bell is your #1 RB over Shady?

    But what if we use your Zeke logic and apply it to Bell? What if he was a rookie? What would we pay for him right now? Gurley, Cook and Fournette would probably priced as the top 3 RBs on the main slate if this year was in a vacuum.

  • theghostofveebs

    @lukemiller42 said...

    again i hear this narrative but alex smith and deshaun watson had absurd games vs the patriots. the panthers will a.) be losing and b.) know the patriots biggest weakness is their pass defense. ive played enough draftkings in enough sports to see this is exactly the type of guy in the type of spot where everyone will say “man what the fuck this shit is so random, he couldnt do shit vs saints defense at home then he follows it up with 28 dkp AT NEW ENGLAND??”. like is it that unrealistic to see: 200 yds passing/60 yds rushing/1 passing tds/1 rush td/1 int from cam? thats 8 + 6 + 6 + 4 – 1 = 23 pts.

    just add onto the fact that brady could get up to 20% owned at the highest price somehow and i think its a brilliant contrarian play. like zeke vs cj anderson, bell vs howard, etc. i think some dude posted it earlier but if u look at those high priced chalks then take the opposite guy, it works out even if no ones on it. if cam sucks dick then so be it but i think he is in a good spot…you can always have a bad day vs a bad pass defense, the saints werent gonna give up 4 tds a game and 400 yds passing to everyone. but its a lot harder to have a bad day vs 2 terrible pass defenses in a row.

    I understand…any given sunday, etc etc…but you have to understand context.

    Pats lack of depth at DE was exposed midway through the 3rd quarter in Week 1. I’ll spare the paragraph on off season trades, drafted injuries, etc. and just say they were horribly leveraged on pass rush generation going into the game.

    End of Q3 Pats are winning 27-21 and this includes a horribly blown coverage of Tyreek Hill by newly acquired CB Gillmore (75 yd TD). KC scores 21 in 4th quarter. At this point the Pats are completely defenseless with zero pass rush and being forced to play a backup DE (Marsh) traded from Seattle literally days before the game.

    Week 2 and some of the triage has been put in place to “manage” the situation while Hightower remains out. Pats defeat Saints 36-20 including a Saints TD in garbage time. That’s Drew Brees and the Saints offense….held to ONE td before garbage time.

    Week 3 and a great mobile college QB with almost no pro level game tape comes in and has a great game. NE holds Hopkins to 7/79/0, but gives up a pick 6. Texans get 2 tds and 4 fgs on offense. Pats win 36-33.

    Fast forward to Week 4. Olsen Done. KB coming back from injury. Funchess well I’ll just say Funchess. Cam clearly not recovered from shoulder surgery. But more importantly, Panthers have committed to changing the mobile QB to the pocket QB. Problem is, Cam has never demonstrated he can throw a touch pass. The offense in Carolina is a train wreck. The story line is that this is a bounce back game for Cam and the Panthers offense. I think its a funeral.

    Fwiw, I like to think I’m an impartial homer. Two weeks before Week 1, I was telling anyone that would listen that KC was going to blow out NE. For 3 quarters, I was wrong.

  • noddy

    is the TB defense still banged up and without important players?

  • FidelCashflow

    So does Fuller vulture all of D. Hops TDs this week? The bigger question is did Fuller learn how to catch better. We know he’s fast enough to be open but he dropped a lot of passes last year.

  • squidkill

    @lukemiller42 said...

    qb: brady/watson
    rb: zeke/cook
    wr: hopkins/fitzgerald
    te: crapshoot, probably brate
    def: bengals/cardinals

    i dont like cash games but this is what im picking up. id much rather play gpp and fade most of these fools

    highest dollar QB in cash??- no thank you pal- Not an optimal strategy

  • PapaDBets

    @4Champion said...

    DJax always kills the Giants. I’m a Giants fan and expect atleast one long td bomb to DJax this week.

    What game logs are you looking at?

  • gillio

    @mike42 said...

    Imagine if this was Zeke’s rookie year and the only body of evidence we had was this year, what would you pay for him in this matchup? About what D. Cook ($6500) or Fournette ($6,700) is going for is my best guess. Same usage, great setups, why pay more?

    L.Bell- Some coaches are all about fooling the masses, Tomlin is NOT one of them. He says they are simplifying things he is basically telling you we are going to give the ball to Bell 30-35 times and pass it to him another 5. What would you pay for that? We paid 10k last year and without that DT we may find out that run D is middling at best. On the very first drive you are going to see BELL handling the ball over and over again, think “boy that TOmlin sure does tell it like it is” and be happy you rostered him.

    30-35 rushes, 5 catches behind a great O-line that has underperformed and a D on the other side that is getting healthy and is super angry. I love PIT to control this game, time of possesion and field position, and Bell to smash for first time this year and the only time I will be on him. Think he is a great pivot in the flex off of AJ, OBJ and JULIO because between them they will not touch the ball as much as Bell and EVERYBODY will have 1 of the 3, nobody will be on Bell.

    Dez- He is going to get 10-15 tgts in a high scoring game and has more TD equity than just about any WR in the game. Do not overthink it with the matchup or lock in Nuk instead, get exposure somewhere. Watson may only throw for 220 this game and when you run around like that it increases variance to the WR’s who are NOT the number one options. Dick Lebeau will bring pressure and try to confuse him and this should increase his running game, increase OTHER wr’s involvement and reduce NUK’s upside. NUK could work still but DEZ IS going to get his chances especially in the red zone. The distance between DEZ and the second and third options on that offense is growing as fast as Dak’s ability to carry the team. It’s a wonderful combo for DFS purposes.

    You’re crazy if you’re projecting Bell to have a 40 touch game. He’s had to date: 13, 31, 21. To project someone for 40 touches is ludacris. With that said I do like Bell this week and can see him nearing 30 touches against an overrated defense and he will be low owned.

    100+ rush yards, TD
    6+ receptions for 60 yards (31 DK points)

    Add in another TD = 37 DK points

    Love Bell this week

  • sanders_tj

    @monarch said...

    1300 price savings on FD and Carson won’t be playing with Case Keenum and running directly into the best run stuffer in recent history.

    You think Carson will get more carries than Cook because he’s $1300 cheaper? I’m confused.

    If you’ve seen any of the Vikings games, the Vikings run the offense through Dalvin Cook. They are super high on him. They make it a point to get him the ball. Then, comes play action and Keenum/Bradford lobs it downfield to Diggs/Theilen.

    While I agree that Carson has a favorable game script, so does Dalvin Cook. And Dalvin Cook has a much higher floor than Carson does. The Vikings offense is clicking and is healthy. Seattle’s is not. Detroit will have to account for more than just Dalvin Cook.

    Go with Carson if you want, but I think it’s silly to pass on Cook just because his price has risen. It should. He’s that good.

  • gillio

    Anyone know is Peterson will shadow garcon? If not garçon is an elite play at his price this week

  • monarch

    I like Cook and will be playing him. He’s just not the value he was even last week and has a much worse matchup and now carries higher ownership.

    Good cash play but he’s priced like he’s Devonta Freeman.

    Detroit btw has an ability to possess the ball…indy does not.

  • monarch

    One last thing. If I’m paying 7500 for a RB on FD, I figure I might as well spend up for Leveon. I do have some Leveon and Cook but you need like 4 touchdowns combined at that cost in GPP

  • mike42

    @gillio said...

    You’re crazy if you’re projecting Bell to have a 40 touch game. He’s had to date: 13, 31, 21. To project someone for 40 touches is ludacris. With that said I do like Bell this week and can see him nearing 30 touches against an overrated defense and he will be low owned

    He will get 35 plus touches this week is my call and it’s not crazy, Tomlin is, He meant what he said after they just got embarrassed by a team that ran it over and over and over again down their throats, his goal this week is to return the favor. He will run it over and over and over again and mix in some screens for good measure. Talk monday after Bell gets 35-40 touches and smashes.

  • KindGuy

    What makes me nervous about Bell is that, according to next gen stats ( https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/rushing#percent-eight-defenders) , Bell has faced 8+ defenders in the box with the 3rd lowest frequency this year behind only…………… Paul Perkins and Chris Johnson. And yet, he’s still averaging only 3.5 yds a carry. That kinda bad. I really think the holdout has affected his conditioning and as a small time player, I’m not sure I want to take that chance just to be the one who gets him on his blowup game.

    Of course this ALSO could mean that’s he due to regress and be more effective since teams are keying in more on the passing attack which should free him up.

    Not sure what to make of this but it did peak my interest that teams possibly don’t see him as a huge weapon………… yet.

  • gillio

    Brandon Williams ruled OUT this week, love me some Bell

  • jimmyd1507

    Tate or Fitz, DK?

  • jimmyd1507

    @noddy said...

    is the TB defense still banged up and without important players?

    Doesn’t seem like it.

    Bucs DT Gerald McCoy (ankle) is questionable for Week 4 against the Giants.
    McCoy practiced in full on Friday, suggesting he is almost certain to play. In addition to McCoy, DE Robert Ayers (knee), CB Brent Grimes (shoulder), and DE Noah Spence (shoulder) all were full participants on Friday and are likely to play through questionable tags.

  • Jokey401

    I am oddly at ease with my gpp Lu’s this week.

    Which of coarse means I will lose all the monies. No tinkerInfo though. Not this week. I’ve tinkered last minute all year.

    Not going to do it. Not going to do it.

  • tim51278

    Anyone like Stafford this week? Could see him getting 4 TDs and 300+ yards

  • JDMcNugent

    Hey Fellas. Which pairing do you like better?

    Dalvin Cook, Fitzgerald, Tate OR Tevin Coleman, Beckham, R. Matthews

    This is for an 8 man league, where the top two win. Also, would approach a contest like this with a more GPP approach? Thanks!

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