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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/27
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: 49.5

    Sunday, 9/30
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at Tennessee ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3.5 ) at Dallas ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Chicago ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 38
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 10.5 ) at Green Bay ( -10.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 7.5 ) at New England ( -7.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 5.5 ) at Atlanta ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 37.5
    4:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3 ) at Oakland ( -3 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 9.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( -3.5 ) at NY Giants ( 3.5 ) —- T: 50
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( 3 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 9/31
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3.5 ) at Denver ( 3.5 ) —- T: 55

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ASitar

    Wow, at first look you can easily make a LU and have $1k left on the table. Gonna be a fun week to pick out the value. Latavius Murray in a great spot. And Gio. Making a Baker/Jarvis LU and gonna eat the Boyd chalk. And Ekeler. He is $200 less than last week and HAS to eat soon, right?

  • Falconsfan101

    Just got done looking at pricing on DK. Here is what my initial thoughts are:

    Baker/Landry stack is going to be chalk. They were 100% on the same page. Bengals/Falcons a good game to stack as well as Giants/Saints. Love Dalton/Eifert/Boyd/Gio if AJ is out. That is where the offense is coming from. RB is a pay up spot. MG3 looking great. Maybe a stack with Chargers D with Jimmy G out. WR looking pretty easy to nail down…lots of value. DK pricing is loose. The big thing to figure out is do we trust Carson this week? Super cheap for 30+ touches….

    Looks like it is going to come down to TE and DEF. TE is bad looking…Gronk or Eifert? Cheapest DEF I’d be comfortable with is Browns, but will try to pay up for Chargers and Jax. I guess Seattle don’t look too bad, depending on which group shows up.

    Broke even for the third consecutive week. F’n Cowboys Defense screwed me. Third week in a row where if the defense has a decent game, I make a good chunk of change. Then the Falcons lost….going to be a great day of work haha.

  • nflfreak28

    Hi all, two things…

    First, some info- on DK the milly maker is a $10 entry this week. I was curious what would happen with the $20 milly tickets that we’ve been winning via satellites (would we have to wait until if/when the milly goes back up to $20 entry?, would we have to use the tickets on other $20 contests?)…so anyway I asked DK via chat and was told that “there will absolutely be more $20 millionaire maker contests to use the tickets on”. So for anybody else that was wondering the same that’s what they told me.

    Second, a question- I also asked them if there was any reasoning behind the milly going to $10 this week (and the total prize pool dropping) and the prize pool for the big $3 entry contest dropping from a $1.7 million prize pool this week all the way down to a $750,000 prize pool in Week 4. I was told that they couldn’t comment on that. I wouldn’t think they would expect a decline in NFL for Week 4 and there was no overlay in those contests yesterday so it just seems odd. Any ideas why they would decrease the prize pools so much for the big contests next week?

  • Dunzor

    @nflfreak28 said...

    Second, a question- I also asked them if there was any reasoning behind the milly going to $10 this week (and the total prize pool dropping) and the prize pool for the big $3 entry contest dropping from a $1.7 million prize pool this week all the way down to a $750,000 prize pool in Week 4. I was told that they couldn’t comment on that. I wouldn’t think they would expect a decline in NFL for Week 4 and there was no overlay in those contests yesterday so it just seems odd. Any ideas why they would decrease the prize pools so much for the big contests next week?

    We saw this last year as well (the decreasing) as interest does dip slightly as the season goes on and people lose their initial deposits. Even if the contest fills, DK will shrink it the next week if it filled at the last second or if they had to run promos to get people to enter. At some point the total prize pool will level off for a few weeks but we’ll probably see it fluctuate based on how quickly they fill the prior week and DK’s historical data on participation week to week in NFL

  • lineupofpeace

    @nflfreak28 said...

    econd, a question- I also asked them if there was any reasoning behind the milly going to $10 this week (and the total prize pool dropping) and the prize pool for the big $3 entry contest dropping from a $1.7 million prize pool this week all the way down to a $750,000 prize pool in Week 4. I was told that they couldn’t comment on that. I wouldn’t think they would expect a decline in NFL for Week 4 and there was no overlay in those contests yesterday so it just seems odd. Any ideas why they would decrease the prize pools so much for the big contests next week?

    Draftkings just likes to mix it up – they had a $1500 milly maker and a $3 milly maker last season as well.

    Looks like there are big $33 and $4444 GPPs this week instead which aren’t typical. I personally like the consistency but I’m sure others like to mix it up,

  • NDNole

    My early not so hot take. Antonio Calloway will be in the winning lineup.

  • thedkexperience

    “Baker/Landry stack is going to be chalk.”

    A rookie QB making his first start on the road in a 4pm game and a WR who is allergic to the endzone will not be the chalk.

  • monarch

    @thedkexperience said...

    “Baker/Landry stack is going to be chalk.”

    A rookie QB making his first start on the road in a 4pm game and a WR who is allergic to the endzone will not be the chalk.

    I like Marshawn/Raiders at 1st glance.

  • Dunzor

    @thedkexperience said...

    “Baker/Landry stack is going to be chalk.”

    A rookie QB making his first start on the road in a 4pm game and a WR who is allergic to the endzone will not be the chalk.

    Don’t discount the public’s ability to flock to the hot new thing…they may not be ‘good chalk’ but I could see them being way higher owned then maybe they should be. We’ll see how projections look later in the week

  • lineupofpeace

    Hope Baker/Landry are chalk – gonna own 0% of both of them and Hyde is going to be a lock for me on both sites this week.

    Also liking the Dolphin’s D a min price, even though they’re at Foxboro.

  • Trappist1

    Did people notice how the milly winner in week 3 had a sensible line-up and nothing outlandish ? Bears DST and Woods as a late swap to nail the win. Pay up at RB while most went looking for bargains. Just three entries too, $60 in and a million out. I like this approach of going with a tight core shortlist and small pivots for variations. Paying up at RB made the LU unique. Lots to be learned from studying the winning line-up’s.

  • thedkexperience

    @Dunzor said...

    Don’t discount the public’s ability to flock to the hot new thing…they may not be ‘good chalk’ but I could see them being way higher owned then maybe they should be. We’ll see how projections look later in the week

    Fair point. Still, what is full slate QB chalk these days? 15%? 20%? I’m not even sure chalk QBs are even relevant any longer on full slates.

    A guy like Kamara or Gurley or Connor at 35% is what I consider NFL chalk. Not sure if any QB has reached 30% on a full slate this year. Chalk matters so much more in NBA or pitchers in baseball (and I’d assume goalies in hockey) then it does in football at the QB position.

  • thedkexperience

    @Trappist1 said...

    Did people notice how the milly winner in week 3 had a sensible line-up and nothing outlandish ? Bears DST and Woods as a late swap to nail the win. Pay up at RB while most went looking for bargains. Just three entries too, $60 in and a million out. I like this approach of going with a tight core shortlist and small pivots for variations. Paying up at RB made the LU unique. Lots to be learned from studying the winning line-up’s.

    I made a $100 profit despite ignoring my own advice of punting all punts when I talked myself into removing Geronimo Allison for Lat Murray in all lineups. Going almost 100% on Kamara and CMC was the move that kept me above water.

    By mid week last week it became pretty obvious that a lot of people were going to pay for Mahomes and Ertz, so therefore I figured that the top RBs wouldn’t be highly owned.

  • NDNole

    @thedkexperience said...

    Fair point. Still, what is full slate QB chalk these days? 15%? 20%? I’m not even sure chalk QBs are even relevant any longer on full slates.

    A guy like Kamara or Gurley or Connor at 35% is what I consider NFL chalk. Not sure if any QB has reached 30% on a full slate this year. Chalk matters so much more in NBA or pitchers in baseball (and I’d assume goalies in hockey) then it does in football at the QB position.

    I side with this. I don’t really care about qb ownership. Even 20% if you know he will go off. Its the 33% rb or wr that will make or break things. If they hit you better have them, if they don’t then you better not. Pretty simplified but that’s how I see it. Its really noticeable how much you move up when you have a sub 10% guy go off. Always stuck with me. But what stuck with me more is you really only need one or 2 of those guys and you can be as chalky as you want and still win. So now I look for good plays no matter if they are chalk or not so long as I have at least one guy I know will be low under. I generally look for 2 guys that will be under 10%. When I stick to that I generally do well.

  • NDNole

    Is this the week to own Julio? After this past week im sure people realize he isn’t going to get td’s. Juuuuuuuuuust about the time he picks his one game a year where he goes 14-250-3. As of right now I still cant make myself do it but im sure going to mull it over til the last minute.

  • econbrah11

    My too early cash game locks : Kamara/Hyde/OBJ/Gronk/Cleveland DST. On FD the pricing is getting tighter it will be hard to fit them.

  • parrothead112

    Does Andrew Luck have enough upside to use in cash games? Houston is just pitiful right now.

  • thedkexperience

    @NDNole said...

    I side with this. I don’t really care about qb ownership. Even 20% if you know he will go off. Its the 33% rb or wr that will make or break things. If they hit you better have them, if they don’t then you better not. Pretty simplified but that’s how I see it. Its really noticeable how much you move up when you have a sub 10% guy go off. Always stuck with me. But what stuck with me more is you really only need one or 2 of those guys and you can be as chalky as you want and still win. So now I look for good plays no matter if they are chalk or not so long as I have at least one guy I know will be low under. I generally look for 2 guys that will be under 10%. When I stick to that I generally do well.

    To this point, I made 10 LUs for the main. My original was a Hou stack of Watson/Hopkins/Fuller. It essentially min cashed but did well enough.

    I then did 5 pivots where I did nothing but change the 3 guys. One of those pivots was Ryan/Julio/Ridley. That LU ended up at 171 for a really good profit despite scoring 14 total at TE, Flex and D.

    It was all because I used the same top RBs everywhere. It was essentially 6/9ths of a cash LU.

  • AVivier

    Mahommes, Ben and Goff aren’t on the main slate. Brees, Watson and Fitz are on the road. This is gonna be a tougher week to get a monster score from the QB position.

  • parrothead112

    @AVivier said...

    Mahommes, Ben and Goff aren’t on the main slate. Brees, Watson and Fitz are on the road. This is gonna be a tougher week to get a monster score from the QB position.

    Rivers maybe?

  • Dunzor

    @AVivier said...

    Mahommes, Ben and Goff aren’t on the main slate. Brees, Watson and Fitz are on the road. This is gonna be a tougher week to get a monster score from the QB position.

    I’m pretty happy the Steelers, Chiefs and Rams are not on the main slate, it means people can’t just flock to those offenses where everything is funneled through a couple guys and they have to really dig in and evaluate a bunch of other teams this week. I think it’ll be one of the bigger edge weeks over the public

  • Messiah717

    @parrothead112 said...

    Rivers maybe?

    Rivers, Ryan and even Eli look interesting.

  • keephustlincuz

    @AVivier said...

    Mahommes, Ben and Goff aren’t on the main slate. Brees, Watson and Fitz are on the road. This is gonna be a tougher week to get a monster score from the QB position.

    My guess is rivers Gordon lac dst will be a popular route this week.

  • Trappist1

    @Dunzor said...

    I’m pretty happy the Steelers, Chiefs and Rams are not on the main slate, it means people can’t just flock to those offenses where everything is funneled through a couple guys and they have to really dig in and evaluate a bunch of other teams this week. I think it’ll be one of the bigger edge weeks over the public

    100% agreed, loving the upcoming week 4 slate and those that dig in a bit deeper will get rewarded.

  • NDNole

    @Trappist1 said...

    100% agreed, loving the upcoming week 4 slate and those that dig in a bit deeper will get rewarded.

    Agree. And I hope I don’t annoy everyone with my calloway love for the week lol. I will be high on him this week.

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