NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/27
    8:20 PM EST : Minnesota ( 6.5 ) at LA Rams ( -6.5 ) —- T: 49.5

    Sunday, 9/30
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -3 ) at Tennessee ( 3 ) —- T: 42
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 3.5 ) at Dallas ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 2.5 ) at Chicago ( -2.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -2.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 7.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -7.5 ) —- T: 38
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 10.5 ) at Green Bay ( -10.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 7.5 ) at New England ( -7.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 5.5 ) at Atlanta ( -5.5 ) —- T: 48
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -3.5 ) at Arizona ( 3.5 ) —- T: 37.5
    4:05 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3 ) at Oakland ( -3 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : San Francisco ( 9.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -9.5 ) —- T: 47
    4:25 PM EST : New Orleans ( -3.5 ) at NY Giants ( 3.5 ) —- T: 50
    8:20 PM EST : Baltimore ( 3 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3 ) —- T: —

    Monday, 9/31
    8:15 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3.5 ) at Denver ( 3.5 ) —- T: 55

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • yellowdart24

    Here is the list of quarterbacks I would rather my favorite team have than Case Keenum. I will skip the first 250 players to save time…

    251) Johnny Maziel
    252) Ryan Leaf
    253) Akili Smith
    254) Tim Couch
    255) Derek Anderson
    256) The Ghost of Stonewall Jackson
    257) JaMarcus Russell’s left testicle
    258) Case Keenum
    259) JaMarcus Russell

  • thedkexperience

    @yellowdart24 said...

    Here is the list of quarterbacks I would rather my favorite team have than Case Keenum. I will skip the first 250 players to save time…

    251) Johnny Maziel
    252) Ryan Leaf
    253) Akili Smith
    254) Tim Couch
    255) Derek Anderson
    256) The Ghost of Stonewall Jackson
    257) JaMarcus Russell’s left testicle
    258) Case Keenum
    259) JaMarcus Russell

    Stonewall Jackson throws a hell of a seam route.

  • Dunzor

    @P0key said...

    If im ever up that big i would prob just prepare for the worst early on so the drop off doesnt hurt as bad…

    Ya you gotta just assume you’re gonna drop until the very end. A couple months back at the PGA championship I was leading the $555 contest for 250K after day 3 and as I went to bed I told myself that the only thing I was going to assume was that I had at least a min cash locked up. Then I had to endure wild swings as I dropped down to like 60th at one point on sunday for only slightly better than a min cash until I finally recovered and ended up 4th. Football is even more swingy as things will change play to play, so you just gotta sit back and wait for the ride to finish before you count your money

  • Trappist1

    @Spartaca said...

    Can you expand on the last part, what is the meta game in tiers, played them for the first time this week, broke even, nothing special.

    DFS like any game has ‘meta game’ strategy, it is just that we now have different formats (Classic, Tiers and Showdown). Classic is the oldest format and ultra competitive. Showdown and Tiers are relatively new and people still trying to figure out the ‘meta game’ strategy for it.

    If i had to rank my probability of taking a top prize on my own, it will more likely come in the ‘tiers’. The meta game for the tiers is in correctly identifying which tiers have the clear cut top scoring player, week 4 it was Kamara in Tier 3 and Zeke in Tier 4. so that leaves us just 6 tiers to work on. The less tiers we have to make a decision on the better. Also the tiers include the afternoon and prime time game so best to note down in what tiers these players are. Tier 5-8 tend to be tricky as most of the players have similar projections and this where one should spend most time doing home work on.

  • Trappist1

    @Dunzor said...

    Ya you gotta just assume you’re gonna drop until the very end. A couple months back at the PGA championship I was leading the $555 contest for 250K after day 3 and as I went to bed I told myself that the only thing I was going to assume was that I had at least a min cash locked up. Then I had to endure wild swings as I dropped down to like 60th at one point on sunday for only slightly better than a min cash until I finally recovered and ended up 4th. Football is even more swingy as things will change play to play, so you just gotta sit back and wait for the ride to finish before you count your money

    Yes, best to have a level headed approach and be happy to make any profit. The variance and swings are inherent in the game, in some sports more so than others. The margins between coming 1st and 10th are so very thin as well, we all need a bit of luck regardless of all the homework we do.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @Trappist1 said...

    If i had to rank my probability of taking a top prize on my own, it will more likely come in the ‘tiers’. The meta game for the tiers is in identifying which tiers have the clear cut top scoring player, week 4 it was Kamara in Tier 3 and Zeke in Tier 4. so that leaves us just 6 tiers to work on. The less tiers we have to make a decision on the better. Also the tiers include the afternoon and prime time game so best to note down in what tiers this players are. Tier 5-8 tend to be tricky as most of the players have similar projections and this where one should spend most time doing home work on.

    I used to play more when it was Pick Em last year but haven’t much this year. I really do like this format but I only have so much BR.

    In the end what I did well that worked this week was play the guys I played most (my “core” if you will), which inherently should be your “best” players. It was just a single bullet but it did well. Put in $3 to get out $25. My miss was Hyde this week.

    Also while I’m here, thank you CG for getting me to play Cooper this week! That certainly helped get me some money back and a NHL ticket.

  • mark83vt

    @mtdurham said...

    Fair enough. If you used them congrats.

    Trubisky was 1% owned as a nearly min priced STARTING QUARTERBACK and he has pretty extreme rushing upside.

    So that should give you some indication of how terrible he has looked. Now, I’m a sucker for guys who have underperformed and might bounce back at a lower price/lower ownership but QB is a different animal.

    The lesson early this season is that if your QB can’t post 40 points he’s basically unrosterable in large field structures…

    Did I think Trubisky could throw for 275 and 2 TD with 30 yards rushing and a TD against Tampa? Yes. Did I think that was good enough to make him competittive in large field GPP? Or reliable enough to use in smaller fields or cash? No.

    Now I gave myself plenty of exposure (at least in my mind) to the Bears passing game by using 10% Allen Robinson (maybe just 5% i forget honestly) and 15% Tarik Cohen. I gave Taylor Gabriel a LONG look but he was way too 7 catches for 40 yards and a TD upside for my tastes. In fact around apge 60 or so his name was mentioned in this thread and someone made this exact same comment about Gabriel and I agreed with him. Teams have been throwing down the field on Tampa. Gabriel is a guy who catches most of his passes basically behind the line of scrimmage. Now in hindsight, was this a guy I should have had some exposure to? Maybe so. But I can’t play everyone and I loved cheap RB’s this week so I really had no need to play many cheap WR’s. Like I said I wanted all teh Hopkins/Julio I could get to and i wanted a tiny bit of the OBJ/Keenan/Thomas guys jsut in case those guys had a slate breaking day.

    But Trubisky? The guy has TWO touchdowns in THREE games. I can safely say I did not see him tying the NFL record for TD’s in a half.

    If i had to do it over again would I play Trubisky? Maybe. Maybe I’d throw him in like 1-2% of lineups. But if anything that would be because I was looking for 60 yards rushing/2 rushing TD and a reasonable passing line.

    It doesnt help that I’ve seen the Bears play twice (now three times) this season. This guy has not looked like an NFL QB. This was a case where I thought a bad defense could at least put up an adequate performance and the Bears dominant defense would slow Tampa enough to turn this game into a grind.

    There is a moutain of difference between a backup RB who runs 0.1 seconds slower in the 40 yard dash or weighs 4 lbs less having an enormous day and a QB who can’t complete a simple screen pass having a big day.

    1. I played a lot of Trubisky (10 out of 24 lineups in the MM) because my assumption was the Bears were going to pick a spot to let him open it up. You’ve got all these other young QB’s out there killing it – Mahomes, Goff, Wentz, etc – and there were rumblings about “why won’t they turn Trubisky loose?” It set up perfectly. Obviously I didn’t know he would get 6 TDs but I fully expected 250+ passing, 50+ rushing, and 3-4 TDs.

    2. I had at least one of either Gabriel, Robinson, Cohen, and/or Burton in every lineup. Only a handful with Gabriel, unfortunately. But I felt good about the Gabriel pick because I watched the Bears the 2 previous weeks and they missed Gabriel on deep balls in each of those games. Wide open behind the defense and just overthrew him. I figured one of those would have to connect, and if so he’d end up with 6 for 100 and a TD on the day, something along those lines. 2 TDs was definitely a bonus. I’m not sure where you came to the conclusion that most of his passes come behind the line of scrimmage. He’s averaging over 10 targeted air yards, and over 30% of his team’s targeted air yards (which is 22nd best in the league). If the Bears go deep there’s a decent chance it’s going to Gabriel.

    I guess what I’m getting at is: sometimes there are reasons beyond the stats to make picks. I was absolutely SHOCKED at Trubisky’s ownership percentage. I basically split, 10 with Trubisky and 10 with Mayfield (plus 4 randoms), and assumed ownership would be similar for the two. I’ve never been more excited for games to get going than I was when I saw 1.5% ownership beside Trubisky. I still don’t get it. Even ignoring the outside-the-number factors, you’ve got a mobile starting QB surrounded by a couple of good WRs, a good TE, and two good RBs against maybe the worst defense in the league.

    It seemed like a no-brainer to me. Maybe this is where I actually get an advantage not reading input or articles or whatever before doing my lineups. I probably would have been talked out of going so heavy on him.

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