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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @monarch said...

    Xavien Howard was torched repeatedly at Dallas. I don’t think he is playing to the best of his ability

    And he followed Cooper into the slot so hes probably on Allen

    He’s still a really good CB, heard one of the experts say he looked disinterested. I think whoever he’s on is a fade, while the other is in play. Hard to imagine Mia watching LAC play and not put their best cover guy on Allen but they are Miami, so, there’s that.

  • thedkexperience

    @mtdurham said...

    This is just way off man. Gentleman is a tremendous cap manager.

    And He got compensation for josh norman and avoided overpaying a zone corner.

    Getts understands that you pay the big boys up front and make due with scrap heap secondaries.

    The giants and panthers were in absolutely horrible shape when he came on board and now hes turned around yet another destitute franchise.

    You say Evan’s would have been available in later rounds but he wouldn’t have been if someone elss drafted him first . That’s just speculation. Now hes got a stud locked into a tiny deal. Giants will be competitive as early as next year and have a 4-7 year super bowl window ahead

    We live on different planets. I can’t. You win. He’s amazing.

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    I really don’t understand your guys’ obsession with being “unique”. All it takes is one player to be different. If all the CHALK smashes you try and avoid to get cute, where are you? There is only so much production to be had.

    I do agree there are times to think what is the most likely outcome and if there is somebody in the same range who has the same/better matchup for discounted ownership. I think sometimes you think the “masses” are smarter than they are. If we’re talking chalky (and moreso game stacks) it’s always gonna be KC and to some extent BAL this year. Sure NYG (and maybe Scary Terry) will be owned but I doubt any of them approach “having to be worried” status. Just my opinion.

    Don’t blow up a good lineup just because you think a guy or 2 might be 20% owned I guess is all I’m getting at.

    I spent an hour car ride on Sunday morning listening to my buddies taunt me for liking chalk.

    They lost a lot of money on Sunday while I split a $300+ profit between betting and DFS.

    You’re right, you just need one or two different players 19 times out of 20. Hell, week 2 was basically decided on by 1 defense. Not getting cute is half the battle.

  • deeebo

    any WR 5k or below on FD that are ok for cash?

  • thedkexperience

    @deeebo said...

    any WR 5k or below on FD that are ok for cash?

    My initial build had guys in the 6000s. It’s starting to creep up.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    I hate it because after week 1 I basically crossed off Cousins with MIN commitment to the run. Somehow (maybe my MSU bias) I want to go to him this week based on previous matchups with da Bears. I mean he’s basically min but has thrown the ball like 20 times all year.

    Bottomline is I won’t go heavy on Cousins but will play him. I’m likely to get close to a single digit score but I do believe the 25-30 point upside is there. Who knows but one of these days the Vikes will surprise us with a passing attack.

  • deeebo

    @thedkexperience said...

    My initial build had guys in the 6000s. It’s starting to creep up.

    yeah its tough when im trying to jam in zeke ingram and ekler ..maybe i should get rid of one of those guys and pay down for another rb like mack ..idk i kind of like having those 3.

  • mtdurham

    @hautalak said...

    I really don’t understand your guys’ obsession with being “unique”. All it takes is one player to be different. If all the CHALK smashes you try and avoid to get cute, where are you? There is only so much production to be had.

    I do agree there are times to think what is the most likely outcome and if there is somebody in the same range who has the same/better matchup for discounted ownership. I think sometimes you think the “masses” are smarter than they are. If we’re talking chalky (and moreso game stacks) it’s always gonna be KC and to some extent BAL this year. Sure NYG (and maybe Scary Terry) will be owned but I doubt any of them approach “having to be worried” status. Just my opinion.

    Don’t blow up a good lineup just because you think a guy or 2 might be 20% owned I guess is all I’m getting at.

    I agree for the most part. At RB I dont worry about it. A lot of times the chalk are the best plays and then you just surround with the 5-10% guys at RB3 and 1-2 WR to ensure you aren’t totally chalked out.

    Defense is obv a great way to differentiate and the fact we only use 1 QB/TE/D keeps rosters pretty unique.

    We are searching for such giant outlier performances that getting super contrarian doesn’t seem to work. With qb being a notable exception since most of the lower salary guys are usually completely ignored.

    I try to Focus more on a tight core of great plays then just being overweight on the overlooked plays and usually that’s the guys who just haven’t gone off yet. NFL requires a pretty tight player pool I feel like. If you have too many duds In your pool it’s just killer

  • zline34

    @hautalak said...

    I really don’t understand your guys’ obsession with being “unique”. All it takes is one player to be different. If all the CHALK smashes you try and avoid to get cute, where are you? There is only so much production to be had.

    I do agree there are times to think what is the most likely outcome and if there is somebody in the same range who has the same/better matchup for discounted ownership. I think sometimes you think the “masses” are smarter than they are. If we’re talking chalky (and moreso game stacks) it’s always gonna be KC and to some extent BAL this year. Sure NYG (and maybe Scary Terry) will be owned but I doubt any of them approach “having to be worried” status. Just my opinion.

    Don’t blow up a good lineup just because you think a guy or 2 might be 20% owned I guess is all I’m getting at.

    If any single player is going to be above 50% owned in a GPP. Especially a GPP like the milly. I don’t care if he’s my favorite player in the NFL and he’s in the best spot of his career. He’s being faded to oblivion if I can beat 50% of lineups by just not playing that player.

  • 866

    Got a feeling this is finally the week were a team KOs Brady for Season. Gimme BUF!!!

  • econbrah11

    @deeebo said...

    yeah its tough when im trying to jam in zeke ingram and ekler ..maybe i should get rid of one of those guys and pay down for another rb like mack ..idk i kind of like having those 3.

    David Johnson on FD is below 7k. Seattle just gave up 95 receiving yards to Kamara. I think he’s worth a shot.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    Yeah I’m no stranger to duds. For the most part I feel like I have reasons for my “contrarian” plays but sometimes I do outthink myself. I typically play at least 20 lineups though so usually I end up with a good low owned combination or two that makes most of my money when I “hit”.

    It’s crazy some of the combos you land on. Like last week my SEA sack was my highest with Wilson/Lockett/Dissly and of course that had Evans as well.

  • BIF

    @Njsum1 said...

    I don’t hate it, yet I can’t love it either. He’s been getting nice passing game work, yet he just doesn’t look great. I can see him doing well here though, should have a decent floor.

    He’s played 2 very good Run D’s in Houston and Tennessee the last two weeks and week 1 vs KC they had their QB1 go down and KC stacked box against rookie QB and Fournette until they got up 29-13 and schemed the run game out of their playbook

    He now has a real opportunity and also looked great on that one big run last game – was starting to worry he had it in him.

  • bfwl3434

    @866 said...

    Got a feeling this is finally the week were a team KOs Brady for Season. Gimme BUF!!!

    I’m sure a lot of people would be happy to see that but its not going to happen. Quick throws to White, Burkhead, Edelman( if he plays). Will be low scoring, something like 17-10 Pats.

  • BIF

    @deeebo said...

    ok. kamara is only 8k on fd so thats probably why ..i do have zeke in my lineup ..thinking he might finally go off this week but like you said pollard has been taking some of his carries

    I feel like Kamara is a sucker play, people will look that the Saints scores 33 on the road and that he smashed last week and have FOMO but the Saints scored 2 DST TDs (off punt and fumble returns) and they played a softer Seattle D compared to what they see this week.

    If I told you that NO was only going to score 17 points this week, would you play Kamara ?

  • deeebo

    @econbrah11 said...

    David Johnson on FD is below 7k. Seattle just gave up 95 yards to Kamara. I think he’s worth a shot.

    I usually like to stick to the chalk plays bc usually those plays help me win my work league. but yeah if DJ is chalk this week than i prob will switch him out for maybe zeke ..

  • deeebo

    @BIF said...

    I feel like Kamara is a sucker play, people will look that the Saints scores 33 on the road and that he smashed last week and have FOMO but the Saints scored 2 DST TDs (off punt and fumble returns) and they played a softer Seattle D compared to what they see this week.

    If I told you that NO was only going to score 17 points this week, would you play Kamara ?

    nope. im staying away from hom

  • yisman

    Jeffery and Goedert are expected to play on Thursday, per Pederson.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    I think the algo priced Jacobs like he isn’t going to get receiving usage. We know he has the ability to do so and Indy is a pristine matchup to get that party started, I think Gruden gets him 3-5 catches. O is struggling and using Jacobs in the passing game in this matchup seems like a no-brainer way to mix things up. Doesn’t mean it will happen or that it will work, but I like the odds that it does and he smashes value as a result.

    BTW- I was watching that INDY game when TY got injured and it didn’t look like anything happened. It just looked like he was playing injured the whole time. My best guess is he plays but is limited again. If he plays, they may not target him the way they normally do.

    Agree but I dont see why Gruden is not using their pass catching back Jalen Richard more; 5 catches in 3 games and plenty of game script opportunities to have used him. The Bears find a way to get Cohen and Monty on field at same time knowing what a weapon he can be but Raiders can’t figure a way to do that but instead they run Ryan Grant or JJ Nelson out there every play as a WR3 smfh

  • BIF

    @parrothead112 said...

    Help on Defense. I keep landing on the Bucs as a super cheap D. Are there any D’s below 3K worth looking at?

    Don’t do that – especially if LB White is going to miss – the Rams present our worst nightmare; 2 guys that are fast and catch underneath crossing routes complimented by a Burner in Cooks plus a physical TE in Everett.

    Rams may score 40 on us and everyone gets a TD – you get a TD and you get a TD

  • parrothead112

    @BIF said...

    Don’t do that – especially if LB White is going to miss – the Rams present our worst nightmare; 2 guys that are fast and catch underneath crossing routes complimented by a Burner in Cooks plus a physical TE in Everett.

    Rams may score 40 on us and everyone gets a TD – you get a TD and you get a TD

    Thank you. Seems like pretty wise advice.

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    I hate it because after week 1 I basically crossed off Cousins with MIN commitment to the run. Somehow (maybe my MSU bias) I want to go to him this week based on previous matchups with da Bears. I mean he’s basically min but has thrown the ball like 20 times all year.

    Bottomline is I won’t go heavy on Cousins but will play him. I’m likely to get close to a single digit score but I do believe the 25-30 point upside is there. Who knows but one of these days the Vikes will surprise us with a passing attack.

    I looked at some “nextgen” stats on Saturday and the thing that jumped out at me more than anything in the whole NFL was how the Vikings are using Diggs.

    Diggs, who is a borderline top 10 WR talent wise in the NFL is getting used as if he was Jakeem Grant. While I’m not sure what it looks like on film, on the spreadsheet he’s just being used as a one-dimensional burner.

    Either Diggs is gonna have a horrendous year with like 2 monster games or someone will notice this and start feeding him every week. So far, I think it’s more likely that the first one happens and we’re gonna go into the offseason wondering why Diggs “lost it” because he only grabbed 45 balls for 700 yards.

    I don’t think this is a Cousins thing, I think it’s a coaching thing. Poor Diggs.

  • parrothead112

    Are we shying away from Dalvin Cook because the Bears? He is still likely to get 20 carries. Most will probably be going Ekeler, right?

  • Ace15

    @parrothead112 said...

    Are we shying away from Dalvin Cook because the Bears? He is still likely to get 20 carries. Most will probably be going Ekeler, right?

    Bears D is legit..I’m off Dalvin bc the price is too high for the expected return. If only I trusted Trubisky to put up points I’d load up on Cousins/Diggs…but he’s been terrible. This game is yuck for me.

  • infantryboys

    @BIF said...

    Don’t do that – especially if LB White is going to miss – the Rams present our worst nightmare; 2 guys that are fast and catch underneath crossing routes complimented by a Burner in Cooks plus a physical TE in Everett.

    Rams may score 40 on us and everyone gets a TD – you get a TD and you get a TD

    Agree. I think if you have to play a sub $3K DST the Broncos at home vs a rookie QB in a must win is the way to go.

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