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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BIF

    @33BeRad said...

    I just think with nobody to really pivot to with his ceiling everyone will be playing him. I’m trying to force myself to not use him much so I can onslaught the Chiefs. This will be Mahomes first game in a dome in the regular season(think preseason last year they were in Atlanta). Speed kills! Detroit should go with Greg Williams method of having a safety 30yds back at all times

    Yah had not really thought about lack of pivots for CMC but with WRs smashing last week I can see some bias to pay up over there plus a bunch of TEs are priced up from last week leaving less $ to pay up for CMC. 40% would still shock me but I can see 30% now.

    With respect to KC-Det, the Lions have to play their slow pace and suck the air out of the ball. I know everyone tries to do it but they really need to keep Mahomes on sideline – steady doses of KJ and some quick hitters to Amendola between the numbers is their best chance to wind the clock.

    Detroit is built for lower scoring games and Stanford is not the gunslinger he once was, I know things can go off the rails quick versus KC but I actually think Detroit has the type of team and system that can hang around for 3Q’s in a lower scoring game.

  • BIF

    @stellagirl said...

    CMC is a road dog RB with a YUGE price tag and a new QB toy who will be spreading the ball around like Cam hasnt done in 2 years.

    I will be WAY under the field on CMC. In GPPs i am looking for at least 3x value and I cant see that from CMC at that price.

    I can see 3x from CMC but not much more and not the 35-40 that I likely need to win a GPP

  • mtdurham

    @stellagirl said...

    CMC is a road dog RB with a YUGE price tag and a new QB toy who will be spreading the ball around like Cam hasnt done in 2 years.

    I will be WAY under the field on CMC. In GPPs i am looking for at least 3x value and I cant see that from CMC at that price.

    My early take is that I agree…. The panthers have a plethora of options offensively and with Cam out they can fully dispose of them. Cam’s limited mobility, accuracy, and understanding of the playbook has really limited what the panthers can do offensively the last 1.5 seasons…

    It’s similar to the way Eli propped up Saquon Barkley fantasy relevance… they can’t make the plays down field so they dump to the release valve.

    Now that the Panthers have a guy who can make all the throws they are less likely to drop it off to CMC every play.

    That said… ill prob still end up heavy on CMC…. like 60%…. because of the outstanding matchup and lack of pivots…. but its possible i dont if i find a reason otherwise…but with all the amazingly cheap QB plays this week…. yeah im prob gonna play cmc and look elsewhere for differentiation

  • Rolled

    Whats the best free site for game script and run/pass plays per team and wr targets avg.

    Thanks

  • miggs6876

    @BIF said...

    Nowhere close to that – he plays against a good defense and now has a QB who can actually throw downfield with some accuracy – plus if they are down as the line suggests, CMC rushes will take a bit of hit – his targets should stay the same but with QB Allen all pass catchers are in play as he spreads it around.

    Road underdog RBs don’t usually crush

    He should not be more than 20-25% IMO

    I agree. I will be very under weight on CMC.

  • miggs6876

    I think I have to play D Jones. He has a nice match up. His floor seems safw with hia legs. Pair him with engrahm and Shepard run it back with AP or Thomspson and McLaurin.

  • theghostofveebs

    @mtdurham said...

    they’ve been around for nearly a decade…. the key now is to find the “next” stats people havent reacted to yet

    if you start with stats that have been “neutralized” (normalized if you’re a statistics geek) then you can build gamescripts off those normalized statistics…

    but if you don’t normalize the data first you’re not working with actual statistics…you’re working with random numbers….

    i.e. the ravens threw for almost 200 yards last week on hail marys when they were down 2+ scores in the 2nd half….. if you dont account for those kind of fluky scenarios and data then you will wonder why that doesnt translate in a normalized scenario next week and you’re losing money

    I think the question regarding your source was in fact a question about your process. Are you synthesizing your “neutral stats” based on play by play data (I’m assuming so), and to what extent are you leveraging script processing of said data to generate, etc.

  • DarrinJ21

    Anyone liking Chris Thompson as a GPP play against the Giants?

  • kdsdawg

    @DarrinJ21 said...

    Anyone liking Chris Thompson as a GPP play against the Giants?

    I will have him in a few on DK

  • clrockny24

    speaking of the giants, Anyone know why their defense is so expensive on dk?

  • kdsdawg

    so, are we scared off of Kenan Allen this Sunday because of him being potentially shadowed by Howard?

  • Njsum1

    @kdsdawg said...

    so, are we scared off of Kenan Allen this Sunday because of him being potentially shadowed by Howard?

    My only concern for Keenan Allen is they might not need him enough for him to smash. Yet I thought the same thing about Amari Cooper and that didn’t stop him from going off. Still it’s a possibility that the Chargers just pound the rock and score a def TD or 2.

    I won’t be as heavy on Allen as last week, think I was like 7 of 12 lineups, yet I won’t be fading him either. Maybe 25 to 35% this week. 🤷‍♂️

  • mike42

    @kdsdawg said...

    so, are we scared off of Kenan Allen this Sunday because of him being potentially shadowed by Howard?

    Personally, I’m not smart enough to figure out who Xavier is going to shadow. I’m curious what the experts will say and after hearing a few of them give their take, you can make an educated guess. If they all say yes, he covers Allen, then I will be fading him and going heavy on M. Williams. If it’s a mixed bag, then IDK.

  • kdsdawg

    @mike42 said...

    Personally, I’m not smart enough to figure out who Xavier is going to shadow. I’m curious what the experts will say and after hearing a few of them give their take, you can make an educated guess. If they all say yes, he covers Allen, then I will be fading him and going heavy on M. Williams. If it’s a mixed bag, then IDK.

    I got my info off of Fantasy Labs..not sure how accurate they are with their projections

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    Yah had not really thought about lack of pivots for CMC but with WRs smashing last week I can see some bias to pay up over there plus a bunch of TEs are priced up from last week leaving less $ to pay up for CMC. 40% would still shock me but I can see 30% now.

    With respect to KC-Det, the Lions have to play their slow pace and suck the air out of the ball. I know everyone tries to do it but they really need to keep Mahomes on sideline – steady doses of KJ and some quick hitters to Amendola between the numbers is their best chance to wind the clock.

    Detroit is built for lower scoring games and Stanford is not the gunslinger he once was, I know things can go off the rails quick versus KC but I actually think Detroit has the type of team and system that can hang around for 3Q’s in a lower scoring game.

    That was my first thought about Det and it seems as though Patricia plays good teams tough. Instead of focusing on taking away KC’s best player, he will focus on another BB principle, making them have to work it downfield and just try taking away the big play. Play soft between the 20’s and stiffen up in the red zone. Det really is built to execute that game plan outside of the fact their run game hasn’t gotten going yet. Think it also helps that last weeks game was THE game of the week for KC and @ DET the following week could lead to mental lapses.

    I think there is a 60% chance we are right but a 40% chance KC uses its other worldly speed on turf to blow past Det early and force Det out of its game plan

    Lliterally every time I think someone can execute this type of game plan Vs KC, I’ve been wrong. We are at the point where it makes sense to assume in some LU’s that nobody can stop Mahomes even though Det has better odds @ home than most others would. The problem is both teams have a lot of weapons now so LU construction is difficult for game stacks. It’s been different players every week for both teams.

  • mike42

    @kdsdawg said...

    I got my info off of Fantasy Labs..not sure how accurate they are with their projections

    Who do they say will cover Allen?

  • thedkexperience

    @mtdurham said...

    According to the stats DIggs has never been even a remotely good NFL WR…..leave the video games off for a day or two..let your eyes reset to reality….

    The vikings are not throwing the ball, in part, because they don’t have a QB or WR corps worthy of throwing the ball that frequently…

    He had 102 catches for 1021 yards and 9 TDs just last year.

    Aren’t you the same guy who spent months arguing that healthy Kevin Durant wasn’t a top 25 player? I just can’t with you.

    I’ll turn off my video games if you agree to turn on your television.

  • squidkill

    Anyone notice Varnette (sp) is being traded to Pitt? all the Dissly

  • kdsdawg

    @mike42 said...

    Who do they say will cover Allen?

    Howard

  • econbrah11

    I think it’s fair to say Mahomes will have 300+ yards and 3+ passing TD every game especially with their RB banged up. I’m done fading him lol

  • squidkill

    dkexperience and mtdurham fight more than my aunt and aunt – geez

  • kdsdawg

    @econbrah11 said...

    I think it’s fair to say Mahomes will have 300+ yards and 3+ passing TD every game especially with their RB banged up. I’m done fading him lol

    there are a lot of QBs that are going to do that every week, many much less expensive, its those 400 yd 4 passing TD games you pay up for

  • thedkexperience

    @theghostofveebs said...

    I think the question regarding your source was in fact a question about your process. Are you synthesizing your “neutral stats” based on play by play data (I’m assuming so), and to what extent are you leveraging script processing of said data to generate, etc.

    No … he just spouts nonsense and makes it sound super fancy but ends up with takes like Kevin Durant isn’t good at basketball and OG Anunoby is an all-star caliber player.

    We all get things right and wrong but don’t for a second believe his nonsense. That’s all it is, nonsense.

    For example, that little anecdote about Lamar’s 2 “Hail Mary” passes should be removed from the evaluation. No, they shouldn’t. They still count and players throw lucky duck passes every week. He also won’t be losing to the best offense on the planet most weeks causing him to do wild stuff. Maybe he won’t throw 2 bombs into coverage next week but as a 5.5 favorite he likely won’t have to since he would have gotten those points from throwing or running a TD anyway.

    The guy just makes stuff up. Buyer beware.

  • thedkexperience

    @squidkill said...

    dkexperience and mtdurham fight more than my aunt and aunt – geez

    It’s because he is dangerous to new players. The guy has the process of making things sound smart while saying nothing down to a science while taking outrageous stances that rarely pan out that he then forgets about a day or week later.

    Notice how he is literally the ONLY person I respond to like this. The guy is nothing more than a troll who leads people who don’t know any better down a treacherous path.

  • econbrah11

    @kdsdawg said...

    there are a lot of QBs that are going to do that every week, many much less expensive, its those 400 yd 4 passing TD games you pay up for

    Yeah but no other QB puts up those numbers as often as Mahomes. For cash he’s a plug and play almost every week.

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