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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • thedkexperience

    @SteeloCity said...

    Alright alright my mistake then with the Brady thing. I was following the game via ESPN FantasyCast so I guess I wasn’t paying close enough attention.

    I think you guys talked me out of the Bills defense. Maybe Jags vs Flacco. Vikings? Rams? Just trying to find a way to save some cash.

    Admittedly I have not locked in on a D yet but I don’t chose my D on who is gonna hold the opponent to the lowest score. I try to find an erratic QB who will have to throw a lot. Here are some potential options even if some of these defenses actually stink.

    NYG vs Wash
    Wash vs NYG
    LAC vs MIA
    Balt vs Cle
    NE vs Buff
    LAR vs TB
    Jax vs Den
    Den vs Jax

    After thinking it through I seem to like the Rams the most. Winston looked wayyyy too good last week. He can throw for 350 and 3 TDs and still put 3 passes into the Rams chests easily.

  • squidkill

    30-3 all-time vs Buffalo- but The Bills mafia have his number lol

  • thedkexperience

    @NDNole said...

    @SteeloCity

    Try looking at the rams D. Winston just had a pretty good game last week but he is prone to many turnovers. Plus they are big underdog on the road. Rams D has good potential to give you some points.

    Yup!

  • mike42

    @squidkill said...

    Buffalo wins Fall Ball every year- The champs of September/October – There’s a reason the line is -7

    You think Brady just rolls them? Smooth, easy win?

    D’s have a lot of variance and I think the amount of effort telling someone to not play a really good, low priced D at home was misplaced.

  • Njsum1

    @SteeloCity said...

    Does anyone else like the Bills D? I feel like they can get some pressure on Brady

    Doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks, if your gut says play the Bills Def, play em. You’ll lose out on more money in DFS by letting people talk you off gut plays than anything else. They also won’t be owned. So, whatever lineup you put with them will automatically be different from 99% of lineups out there. Obviously you understand it’s a low probability play, which is why it’s fine for GPP’s.

    Just don’t play them in cash 😉

  • squidkill

    Nope not at all- I’m teasing the Bills up through the 10 to ( 13) looking like a 20-10 game This is also the BEST NE defense i’ve seen since 2004

  • thedkexperience

    @mike42 said...

    You think Brady just rolls them? Smooth, easy win?

    D’s have a lot of variance and I think the amount of effort telling someone to not play a really good, low priced D at home was misplaced.

    I doubt he rolls them. It’ll probably be 27-17 or 24-20 or somewhere in that neighborhood. What I don’t think will happen is Brady going nuclear to the level where Buffalo’s D gets multiple turnovers. I mean it’s possible but it’s also possible that I learn to serve a tennis ball 112MPH in one afternoon of practice. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

  • squidkill

    anyone know the RAMS def price on DK?

  • thedkexperience

    @Njsum1 said...

    Doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks, if your gut says play the Bills Def, play em. You’ll lose out on more money in DFS by letting people talk you off gut plays than anything else. They also won’t be owned. So, whatever lineup you put with them will automatically be different from 99% of lineups out there. Obviously you understand it’s a low probability play, which is why it’s fine for GPP’s.

    Just don’t play them in cash 😉

    Well said. If you feel that strongly then GPP them. You’ll definitely be up on the field if you’re right.

  • superjon

    @thedkexperience said...

    I doubt he rolls them. It’ll probably be 27-17 or 24-20 or somewhere in that neighborhood. What I don’t think will happen is Brady going nuclear to the level where Buffalo’s D gets multiple turnovers. I mean it’s possible but it’s also possible that I learn to serve a tennis ball 112MPH in one afternoon of practice. I just wouldn’t bet on it.

    I really hope we aren’t about to get into a multiple page debate on whether or not the Bills D is a good play.

  • AVivier

    Speaking of the Bills/Pats game, Pats are running a lot of shadow D and will likely have Gilmore on Brown most/all the game. This is a pretty clear fade Brown spot to me. More of a Beasley spot if you can stomach it, fliers on Zay or Foster, or just avoid that whole side of the ball.

  • SteeloCity

    @superjon said...

    I really hope we aren’t about to get into a multiple page debate on whether or not the Bills D is a good play.

    Here’s one for you then Jon, what running backs do you like this week?

    Besides the incredibly chalky Ekeler and McCaffrey here’s my list:

    Leonard Fournette
    Josh Jacobs
    Kerryon Johnson
    David Johnson
    Marlon Mack
    Derrick Henry
    James White

  • thedkexperience

    @SteeloCity said...

    Here’s one for you then Jon, what running backs do you like this week?

    Besides the incredibly chalky Ekeler and McCaffrey here’s my list:

    Leonard Fournette
    Josh Jacobs
    Kerryon Johnson
    David Johnson
    Marlon Mack
    Derrick Henry
    James White

    May I inquire as to why Mark Ingram isn’t on that list?

  • NDNole

    @SteeloCity

    Kerryon got 20 carries last week. People are gonna see what ingram did to the chiefs and think kerryon can do the same at a cheap price (he can if he gets the ball) not 40 points but a good game I mean. I don’t think he will be ignored. I do think he is a good play. Just don’t go into it thinking he will be single digit owned.

    If david Johnson gets carries he could have a really good game. Who knows how the cards will play it though is the question.

  • superjon

    @SteeloCity said...

    Here’s one for you then Jon, what running backs do you like this week?

    Besides the incredibly chalky Ekeler and McCaffrey here’s my list:

    Leonard Fournette
    Josh Jacobs
    Kerryon Johnson
    David Johnson
    Marlon Mack
    Derrick Henry
    James White

    I haven’t fully dived into my research yet, but based on price and possible recency bias.

    Fournette may end being my highest owned RB.

  • SteeloCity

    @thedkexperience said...

    May I inquire as to why Mark Ingram isn’t on that list?

    Good question, I should probably include him. Browns have struggled against backs this season.

  • mike42

    @Njsum1 said...

    Doesn’t matter what anyone else thinks, if your gut says play the Bills Def, play em. You’ll lose out on more money in DFS by letting people talk you off gut plays than anything else. They also won’t be owned. So, whatever lineup you put with them will automatically be different from 99% of lineups out there. Obviously you understand it’s a low probability play, which is why it’s fine for GPP’s.

    Just don’t play them in cash 😉

    That’s where I’m going to disagree, that it’s a low probability play compared to other D’s in that price range or below. Yes, there are better setups but they cost more. If Edelman sits, NE’s run game hasn’t been running smoothly and their O-line is a concern week 4 even though it won’t be by week 10. Out of all the D’s in this price range, Buf’s is the best and it’s at home.

    BTW- I like Car’s D at 2300 and TEN’s D at 2600 more but I’m just making the point that variance exists for D’s all the time, including Vs NE.

    Car’s D- Assume that last week was an anomaly with Watson only being sacked 2x. Car’s D is good and strong up front.

    Ten D- LOVE taking teams to bounce back 10 days later after a poor TNF performance. ATL is awful upfront which is the number one way to pick a good D; find a bad O-line. ATL can’t run which probably means Ryan has to drop back a lot. Also, for the first 2 weeks he threw a lot of picks and last week he didn’t. That means there is a 66.67% chance he throws a lot of picks this week.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    That was my first thought about Det and it seems as though Patricia plays good teams tough. Instead of focusing on taking away KC’s best player, he will focus on another BB principle, making them have to work it downfield and just try taking away the big play. Play soft between the 20’s and stiffen up in the red zone. Det really is built to execute that game plan outside of the fact their run game hasn’t gotten going yet. Think it also helps that last weeks game was THE game of the week for KC and @ DET the following week could lead to mental lapses.

    I think there is a 60% chance we are right but a 40% chance KC uses its other worldly speed on turf to blow past Det early and force Det out of its game plan

    Lliterally every time I think someone can execute this type of game plan Vs KC, I’ve been wrong. We are at the point where it makes sense to assume in some LU’s that nobody can stop Mahomes even though Det has better odds @ home than most others would. The problem is both teams have a lot of weapons now so LU construction is difficult for game stacks. It’s been different players every week for both teams.

    💯

  • mike42

    Is D. Cook going to have sub 10% ownership?

  • gaelicgirl

    @thedkexperience said...

    Aren’t you the same guy who spent months arguing that healthy Kevin Durant wasn’t a top 25 player? I just can’t with you.

    I’ll turn off my video games if you agree to turn on your television.

    A take that will live. in. infamy.

    Hope new players will heed your PSA, well done.

  • BIF

    @SteeloCity said...

    Before you are so quick to judge me keep in mind the JETS were the top scoring defense last week off of Brady. Two pick sixes. I’d like to think the Bills are just a tad better here and it frees up room for other stuff. Just friendly conversation here brother, no need to be condescending lol

    FAKE NEWS !!

    Jets were top scoring D because their 2 TDs were:

    1. A fumbled punt return recovered in end zone for a TD
    2. Brady’s backup Stidham threw a Pick 6

    Edit – sorry saw this was already addressed; just catching up

  • JSteele

    @thedkexperience said...

    Admittedly I have not locked in on a D yet but I don’t chose my D on who is gonna hold the opponent to the lowest score. I try to find an erratic QB who will have to throw a lot. Here are some potential options even if some of these defenses actually stink.

    NYG vs Wash
    Wash vs NYG
    LAC vs MIA
    Balt vs Cle
    NE vs Buff
    LAR vs TB
    Jax vs Den
    Den vs Jax

    After thinking it through I seem to like the Rams the most. Winston looked wayyyy too good last week. He can throw for 350 and 3 TDs and still put 3 passes into the Rams chests easily.

    From your list, I’m most interested in Jacksonville. They will get sacks against Denver’s horrible O-Line, maybe a few turnovers and a pick 6 if i’m lucky. I don’t think too many people will be on them because the Chargers are at Miami, and New England is on the slate. Also with the whole Jalen Ramsey issues public perception may be that he won’t put any effort into the game.

  • Smallchimp

    @thedkexperience said...

    I think the most important thing in cash is to get the safest near 30 possible and take 1 major chalk RB most weeks. After that pretty much anything is in play

    This is what I’ve noticed. At this point in the season, QB scoring isn’t quite binary, but it’s a tight spectrum between getting 25-30 or getting sub 20. A third or so of the QBs on a slate will be on the right side of this threshold while the rest will fall on the wrong side. For cash, how many spots can you be at a 10-15 FP deficit while still being in contention, given the fact that you’re running a cash lineup with predominantly “popular” plays that your opponents very well may have landed on as well? Obviously $7500 is a lot, but if there’s popular low to mid range options, is saving $1000 at the QB spot worth upgrading a player? What price point transition typically has a 10-15 FP expected value gained?

    I don’t think Mahomes is a “don’t have, don’t cash” play, but if there were a Flex play at $7500 that was expected to put up 25-30 FP every week, wouldn’t that be a heavy exposure play for you? At a point, missing points to upgrade from Samuel to Diggs ends up hurting more than it helps, variance accounted for. Obviously having value plays is key, but it’s the same argument as Harden being worth it when he was over 25% of your salary and put up nearly a third of the points needed to cash. If you can lock up your spending to cover a solid value multiplier (not that that’s a perfect measure), it’s not a bad play. You can always argue in favor of the potential for dudding out, but it’s cash, if you’re playing plays that have high probability to completely bust, you’re playing too aggressively.

  • mike42

    @BIF said...

    💯

    I remember reading in the preseason Mahomes saying how he didn’t know how teams were going to stop them because they have so much speed everywhere. Tyfreak has been out, the freakiest of the freaky, and they haven’t missed a beat. We’ve never seen anyone like Mahomes before but we’ve also never seen this much speed on O before. Give KC credit, for at least offense, they put the ideal skill players around Mahomes and they have the ideal play-caller. It’s a mix on O that may be a notch or 2 better than anything we’ve seen before.

    Mahomes is still not priced correctly. It’s like the stud dual-threat RB’s from years past. The price kept going up but it took 4-6 weeks for DK to catch up to their true value. He should go over 30 most of the time in this setup and 40 be well within the range of outcomes and at $7600, that’s still a good deal.

  • Ndepompei

    Will Darius Slay be shadowing Watkins?

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