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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @thedkexperience said...

    If you’re right – and I think you might be – I may have to reconsider that Matt Patricia might actually know what he’s doing.

    At this point, one should assume he might know what he is doing especially Vs good teams. I think Det has a good team and a good coach but we still got most of the season left. I also think the #FreeKJ movement is starting to take shape. We’ve been making fun of him for not using him enough and then they cut CJ and give him 20 carries for the first time this year and possibly in his career. I’ll tell you this, it would be a good time to trade for him in season long because it just might be the start of KJ getting a good workload most weeks. I think I’m locking him in.

  • JSteele

    I think Zeke has a breakout week. It’s not the most exploitable matchup but the game should stay close enough that he gets 23-25 carries and multiple TDs are not out of question.

  • mike42

    @JSteele said...

    I think Zeke has a breakout week. It’s not the most exploitable matchup but the game should stay close enough that he gets 23-25 carries and multiple TDs are not out of question.

    Not on the main slate

  • wilks3579

    @Ace15 said...

    Anyone think Fowler could be the pivot off of Sterling?

    Why are you looking to pivot off Shepard? (honest question) Even if he is a chalky 20% owned, doesn’t mean you need to pivot to someone else, he’s in a great spot and should smash. You can differentiate elsewhere.

    To answer your question though, possible pivots for Shep are Hollywood Brown, Tyrell Williams and DJ Moore. All priced right around Shepard (again, on DK), some good (maybe even great) matchups, and if people are clicking Shepard, they will not be clicking any of those names.

  • Ace15

    @wilks3579 said...

    Why are you looking to pivot off Shepard? (honest question)

    Not a complete fade, but definitely want to gain leverage where I can. I’m sure Shep will get targets, but I’m looking for the home run hitter against WASH secondary (See Djax, Gabriel, Smith). The guy who can get deep. ADOT tells me Shep is more of a underneath type of guy rather than stretch the field (that’s Fowler/Latimer). Shep is fine on DK, but FD would like more guys with TD equity. I want to win a GPP not just cash, but to your point can differentiate somewhere else.

  • BIF

    @wilks3579 said...

    Here’s a quick list of 3% owned plays that could get you 30+ this weekend:

    RB’s:

    Henry, Ingram, Jacobs, Drake

    WR’s:

    The Williams Trio (Mike/ Tyrell/ Preston), Fuller, Hardman, Metcalf, either CAR WR (Samuel/ Moore), Manny, also think one of the LAR receivers, Cooks or Woods, ends up criminally underowned. The list goes on and on, tough part (obviously) is figuring out exactly which ones will hit

    How is Henry or Ingram only going to be 3% ?

    They might be closer to 30 than 3

  • kps3205s

    @squidkill said...

    anyone know the RAMS def price on DK?

    Didn’t see a response through the pages unless I missed it….$3500 on DK

  • thedkexperience

    @Ace15 said...

    Not a complete fade, but definitely want to gain leverage where I can. I’m sure Shep will get targets, but I’m looking for the home run hitter against WASH secondary (See Djax, Gabriel). The guy who can get deep. ADOT tells me Shep is more of a underneath type of guy rather than stretch the field (that’s Fowler/Latimer). Shep is fine on DK, but FD would like more guys with TD equity. I want to win a GPP not just cash, but to your point can differentiate somewhere else.

    Shep is not a burner but he’s not slow either. He’s kind of a poor man’s Steve Smith type. Fast but not super fast. Strong but not an ox. He’s just a really smart player who has a feel for the game and finally has a QB willing to throw it downfield. He lives in the 12 to 18 yard area.

    Also, all the Giants ADOTs need to be taken with a major grain of salt. Eli – and I cannot stress this enough – wasn’t even trying to throw it past 8 yards for most of the last few years. He commonly would make 1 read, and check it to Saquon. Engram lead the NFL in separation last year and Eli didn’t just miss him, he didn’t bother.

    I’m not gonna put Jones in the hall of fame like some media people are but even after 1 game it’s clear he does 2 things that Eli did not – throw it with velocity past the first down marker and extend plays with his feet.

    Both of those things help Shep and definitely would not show up on a full year ADOT list.

  • econbrah11

    @wilks3579 said...

    To answer your question though, possible pivots for Shep are Hollywood Brown, Tyrell Williams and DJ Moore. All priced right around Shepard (again, on DK), some good (maybe even great) matchups, and if people are clicking Shepard, they will not be clicking any of those names.

    Brown is is play. He saw a lot of targets last week but most of them were overthrown by Lamar, including one deep ball in the end zone where he was wide open. He could smash again this week.

  • thedkexperience

    @BIF said...

    How is Henry or Ingram only going to be 3% ?

    They’ll be closer to 30 than 3

    Ingram was 6% last week. I was on him at about 90%. People just hate the guy. No idea why but he’s being looked at like he’s a 37 year old 4th outfielder despite all evidence pointing to him taking a run at the rushing title.

    Hell, I just got an ESPN push message literally telling me to trade him. It’s mind boggling.

  • Ace15

    @thedkexperience said...

    Both of those things help Shep and definitely would not show up on a full year ADOT list.

    Agreed, LW his ADOT was around 12. Historically he’s been around 10-12. I think he’s a fine play on DK and I’m not completely fading him, just throwing things out there.

  • thedkexperience

    @Ace15 said...

    Agreed, LW his ADOT was around 12. Historically he’s been around 10-12. I think he’s a fine play on DK and I’m not completely fading him, just throwing things out there.

    For sure, he’s definitely not gonna get you a 60 yard TD. That’s totally true.

  • mike42

    @Ace15 said...

    Not a complete fade, but definitely want to gain leverage where I can. I’m sure Shep will get targets, but I’m looking for the home run hitter against WASH secondary (See Djax, Gabriel, Smith). The guy who can get deep. ADOT tells me Shep is more of a underneath type of guy rather than stretch the field (that’s Fowler/Latimer). Shep is fine on DK, but FD would like more guys with TD equity. I want to win a GPP not just cash, but to your point can differentiate somewhere else.

    Not sure why everyone is telling you not to pivot off of the chalk. I also thought the same thing about Wash’s D after Gabriel smashed. Never a bad idea to look for pivots but the problem, in this case, is outside of Sheppard/Engram, no one else seems to have enough talent to push for 30 DK points or even 25. I saw Latimer make a big play or 2 before he bumped his head. I think a good pivot is to just fade this game in some LU’s hoping it disappoints.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @JSteele said...

    So lets say he rushes 20 times like he did last game. At 3.4 yards per carry, thats 68 yards. Maybe he scores and gets a reception, are you happy with 13-15 FPTs?

    Cumulatively the Lions 3 opponents so far are giving up 3.9 yds/c. Now multiply those 20 carries from your projection by the 6.2 yds/c the Chiefs are giving up, factor in that 1 score and catch and you’re at 23ish.

  • mike42

    I think Ten goes mostly man to man while INDY was mostly zone. Last week I pointed that out to say Julio was a good play, this week I’m pointing it out to tell you Ridley is a good play. Ridley stats Vs man are dramatically better than zone with the reverse being true for Julio and Ridley’s going to get lost in the shuffle this week despite ATL probably having to pass 40-50x. He is your 3% owned calculated dart throw with a 30 plus pt ceiling.

  • wilks3579

    @BIF said...

    How is Henry or Ingram only going to be 3% ?

    They might be closer to 30 than 3

    NOBODY (most of the public) likes to click on those two names. Henry and Ingram just don’t “do it” for people. Both will be MUCH closer to 3% than 30%

  • BIF

    @thedkexperience said...

    Ingram was 6% last week. I was on him at about 90%. People just hate the guy. No idea why but he’s being looked at like he’s a 37 year old 4th outfielder despite all evidence pointing to him taking a run at the rushing title.

    Hell, I just got an ESPN push message literally telling me to trade him. It’s mind boggling.

    They love the sell high crap – a guy has a good game and you better dump him for optimal value

  • superjon

    @mike42 said...

    Ridley stats Vs man are dramatically better than zone

    So far this season

    Ridley vs Man Coverage – 2 Targets / 26 Yards

    Ridley vs Zone Coverage – 14 Targets / 149 Yards

  • JSteele

    @mike42 said...

    Not on the main slate

    Right, I’m looking at Yahoo, should have specified.

  • BIF

    @wilks3579 said...

    NOBODY (most of the public) likes to click on those two names. Henry and Ingram just don’t “do it” for people. Both will be MUCH closer to 3% than 30%

    I get it but 3 still seems quite low coming off a big game for Ingram

    On the positive, I’m starting to understand why I win and “most of the public” doesn’t 😂 I’ve owned Ingram every week – not a ton but even 15% by me at his ownership means I’m way over the field

  • wilks3579

    @mike42 said...

    Not sure why everyone is telling you not to pivot off of the chalk.

    Not trying to tell Ace15 to not pivot, just curious about why. Always enjoy hearing people’s reasons for moving away from (or to) a certain play.

  • BIF

    @superjon said...

    So far this season

    Ridley vs Man Coverage – 2 Targets / 26 Yards

    Ridley vs Zone Coverage – 14 Targets / 149 Yards

    Makes sense as he can’t win contested battles for the catch but can slip in between coverage like a 10 year veteran.

  • TJRhodes

    @wilks3579 said...

    NOBODY (most of the public) likes to click on those two names. Henry and Ingram just don’t “do it” for people. Both will be MUCH closer to 3% than 30%

    At least on DK with targeting PPR RB’s, I often skip right over the two unless it’s a game stack.

  • mike42

    @superjon said...

    So far this season

    Ridley vs Man Coverage – 2 Targets / 26 Yards

    Ridley vs Zone Coverage – 14 Targets / 149 Yards

    Maybe I read it wrong last week because I just googled it and the first thing that popped off was how good he was Vs zone in college. Last week I could have swore I read how Ridley is better vs man because he is such a good route runner. Read it on FantasyPros, I think, but honestly, I could have it wrong.

  • JSteele

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Cumulatively the Lions 3 opponents so far are giving up 3.9 yds/c. Now multiply those 20 carries from your projection by the 6.2 yds/c the Chiefs are giving up, factor in that 1 score and catch and you’re at 23ish.

    Arizona averages 4.9 YPC, Johnson averaged 3.1 YPC
    Los Angeles averaged 4.2 YPC, Johnson averaged 3.4 YPC
    Eaglies average 2.9 YPC, Johnson averaged 1.8 YPC

    His longest run of the season is 11 yards.

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