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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @gaelicgirl said...

    I get not liking children, but puppies?

    Only if they are biting children.

  • bfwl3434

    The Bills D should be able to limit Gordon and Dorsett. I see a lot of targets for White and Edelman especially with the lack of TE production. This should be a lower scoring game. The Bills are going on to have a real hard time scoring even at home. In tight games Brady leans on Edelman/White. Burkhead will be involved some but I like White for just $700 more.

  • SteeloCity

    @mike42 said...

    I don’t think EK will be real chalky. The sentiment seems to be fade him because he will be resting for 1/4 or 1/2 the game. WIth Zeke not smashing last week and Pollard smashing, it feels like recency bias is leading people away from the best matchup on the board out of the high priced guys. IDk what they have him projected at ownership wise but I’ll take the under, every single podcast I’ve listened to has said to play Jackson and I’ve yet to hear one say play Ekeler.

    So I guess that means I should change all my Cook plays… RG has him as chalk, 29% owned behind McCaffrey and Gallman.

  • deeebo

    Eagles win tonight.

  • theghostofveebs

    @monarch said...

    Keenan Allen- that was last weeks play, time to find this weeks play

    I feel like it will be someone in the bucs rams game.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    Only if they are biting children.

    WOW maybe you and @gaelicgirl can hook up and NOT reproduce

  • mike42

    Thanks. This is good stuff.

  • mike42

    @bfwl3434 said...

    The Bills D should be able to limit Gordon and Dorsett. I see a lot of targets for White and Edelman especially with the lack of TE production. This should be a lower scoring game. The Bills are going on to have a real hard time scoring even at home. In tight games Brady leans on Edelman/White. Burkhead will be involved some but I like White for just $700 more.

    I’m mostly with you but there is one piece of the puzzle that may make the much lower owned option, Sexy Rexy, the better play. Brady hasn’t thrown a TD pass in Buf since 2016. Rex is a real good 3-5% owned dart throw here. Both could get 5 plus catches and 100 total yds but Rex is more likely to get 2 TD’s since they are more likely to come from the ground game.

  • bfwl3434

    @mike42 said...

    I’m mostly with you but there is one piece of the puzzle that may make the much lower owned option, Sexy Rexy, the better play. Brady hasn’t thrown a TD pass in Buf since 2016. Rex is a real good 3-5% owned dart throw here. Both could get 5 plus catches and 100 total yds but Rex is more likely to get 2 TD’s since they are more likely to come from the ground game.

    Yeah, that’s a good point. I could see that happening but I’ll likely still have 0 Burkhead this week.

  • parrothead112

    You can get all the Pats with their D and Kelce on DK.

  • mike42

    @SteeloCity said...

    So I guess that means I should change all my Cook plays… RG has him as chalk, 29% owned behind McCaffrey and Gallman.

    I think he lands closer to 20% just based on sentiment/podcasts. When every single “expert” says go the other way (jackson), I think it moves the needle.

  • Sbunit

    Is Paul Richardson a super sleeper in that Giants/Skins Game? I don’t think anyone in the Giants secondary is capable of covering anyone. Thinking of pivoting off of McLaurin with the thinking it’s an equal opportunity scenario for the skins receivers.

  • mike42

    @bfwl3434 said...

    Yeah, that’s a good point. I could see that happening but I’ll likely still have 0 Burkhead this week.

    Not sure I will either but the more I think about it the more I think they may use both, together a lot this week. NE varies more than any team and I wouldn’t be surprised if they both got a ton of touches. Offset Buf’s elite secondary with extreme RB usage would be a very BB thing to do.

  • theghostofveebs

    Things I don’t understand mid-way through prep…

    Why does anyone think Fournette will do anything in Denver?
    KJ / Mack / CMC / DJ….how hard is that?

  • jryda7

    Looks like McLaurin was limited w a hamstring. Something to keep an eye on

  • Dunzor

    @jryda7 said...

    Looks like McLaurin was limited w a hamstring. Something to keep an eye on

    probably just taking it easy since they are on the short week, tomorrow’s practice will be the important one for them

  • thedkexperience

    @theghostofveebs said...

    Things I don’t understand mid-way through prep…

    Why does anyone think Fournette will do anything in Denver?
    KJ / Mack / CMC / DJ….how hard is that?

    85 and 2 TDs week 1 vs Jacobs

    62 and 1 TD week 2 vs Montgomery and another 95 on the ground for the rest of the Bears

    78 and 2 TDs to the GB backfield

    It’s not that they are bad, but they have been giving up TDs regularly on the ground. Add in that Fournette isn’t splitting carries and 16 to 20 with long TD upside is there.

    I’m only playing him in a short slate but I fail to see how David Johnson is a safer option.

  • Dafalcs34

    It will be intresting to see if buffalo can get in the endzone.

  • theghostofveebs

    @thedkexperience said...

    85 and 2 TDs week 1 vs Jacobs

    62 and 1 TD week 2 vs Montgomery and another 95 on the ground for the rest of the Bears

    78 and 2 TDs to the GB backfield

    It’s not that they are bad, but they have been giving up TDs regularly on the ground. Add in that Fournette isn’t splitting carries and 16 to 20 with long TD upside is there.

    I’m only playing him in a short slate but I fail to see how David Johnson is a safer option.

    I can’t dispute your numbers. I like the under in the Jags Denver matchup and the over in the Seattle Arizona matchup. Fournette’s recent increased involvement in the passing game is like Gallman’s rushing yards if you follow me. And the Jag’s running game has looked, well, anemic. I see DJ as 33% of AZ’s production and Fournette as a smaller slice of a smaller pie. Probably too much eyeball analytics on my part, but I think I’d just like to hang out on the sideline before taking on some Fournette exposure.

  • thedkexperience

    @theghostofveebs said...

    I can’t dispute your numbers. I like the under in the Jags Denver matchup and the over in the Seattle Arizona matchup. Fournette’s recent increased involvement in the passing game is like Gallman’s rushing yards if you follow me. And the Jag’s running game has looked, well, anemic. I see DJ as 33% of AZ’s production and Fournette as a smaller slice of a smaller pie. Probably too much eyeball analytics on my part, but I think I’d just like to hang out on the sideline before taking on some Fournette exposure.

    1 – I love the term eyeball analytics haha

    2 – I’m 100% with you on those over under calls. The late games look like two races to 40 each and 2 games where the first to 15 points wins.

    3 – I just can’t get a handle on DJ. One week tons of targets then very few. Also lots of runs and then not so much. Aside from Kingsbury being a devote worshiper of 4 wides and pace, I can’t get a pulse on his RB usage. The Jags, however, seem pretty easy to figure out.

  • Njsum1

    @Sbunit said...

    Is Paul Richardson a super sleeper in that Giants/Skins Game? I don’t think anyone in the Giants secondary is capable of covering anyone. Thinking of pivoting off of McLaurin with the thinking it’s an equal opportunity scenario for the skins receivers.

    Not a bad idea and separately, I like going back to Ingram sparingly here as well. Should be low owned again.

  • squidkill

    Somebody “wants a piece of Pats/Buffalo game” two of the top defenses in the AFC—— interesting angle

  • squidkill

    Eagles are NOT winning tonight either deebo

  • deeebo

    @squidkill said...

    Eagles are NOT winning tonight either deebo

    the sad part is even if we lose tonight im still not worried lol. idk why but something tells me we’re going to make a run and considering we have all of our division games remaining im just not panicking

  • SteeloCity

    I’m entering just one lineup on the FanDuel milli and having a tough time deciding. Do you go with Goff paired with any of the trio of wideouts (favoring Woods/Kupp atm), or do you go the Mahomes with Watkins/Kelce?

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