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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    D. Cook- money coming in on minny. A. Hicks going to be limited or out, as is B. Powell( DT depth that would start on most teams). Next week people are going to realize Cooks is matchup proof, realize it this week.

  • econbrah11

    @mike42 said...

    D. Cook- money coming in on minny. A. Hicks going to be limited or out, as is B. Powell( DT depth that would start on most teams). Next week people are going to realize Cooks is matchup proof, realize it this week.

    Too expensive. There are cheaper backs with better matchups to exploit.

  • noddy

    @JSteele said...

    I’m not sure Ingram is great for cash this week. I like Mack a lot, but the majority will pay up for CMC and differentiate elsewhere. There is always a bunch of cheap receivers in good spots you can use. McLaurin (if healthy), Sterling Shepherd, Hollywood, a lot has been mentioned in this thread.

    I’m surprised you’re not sure about Ingram. CMC is $2200 more on DK. That’s quite a bit.

  • thedkexperience

    @mike42 said...

    D. Cook- money coming in on minny. A. Hicks going to be limited or out, as is B. Powell( DT depth that would start on most teams). Next week people are going to realize Cooks is matchup proof, realize it this week.

    I’m riding him in the late slate for sure.

    That said, am I the only person who thinks Minnesota is a great home team who is questionable at best on the road? I love Cook – I’ll happily admit I was wrong on him 3 weeks back – but Cousins always seems like he is an eternal quest to go 8-8 and the road is where it’s much easier to get off schedule, especially with Khalil Mack breathing down his neck.

  • m203

    @JSteele said...

    Pretty much, Mahomes playing on turf for the first time in his NFL career which is generally faster for receivers. He has god like ability to throw down field and Hardman leads the league in separation on downfield throws I believe.

    oh yeah i know mahomes is a lock for me this week. appreciate this response and the other. thanks guys

  • doit222

    @mike42 said...

    D. Cook- money coming in on minny. A. Hicks going to be limited or out, as is B. Powell( DT depth that would start on most teams). Next week people are going to realize Cooks is matchup proof, realize it this week.

    Even with the injuries I’m nervous. Chicago has given up 100 yards to a single back once.. I repeat once, in the last 37 games. Only once in last 11 has someone gone over 55 yards and that was Saquon in an OT game. I’m a Vikes fan through and through but this matchup terrorizes me.

  • Njsum1

    @mike42 said...

    Jacobs is such a better play than Gallman or even J. Jackson. Sets up for a ceiling game for him because u can project receiving work Vs Indy and there are more reasons to believe Gruden than not w Oak O struggling. Think 25-30 plus points wouldn’t be an outlier and he should at least hit value a majority of the time in this setup.

    Jacobs seems like a great play to me, I’ll take Gruden at his word 🤷‍♂️.

  • thedkexperience

    @noddy said...

    I’m surprised you’re not sure about Ingram. CMC is $2200 more on DK. That’s quite a bit.

    I think what he is saying is that the touts and general public fish players are always low on Ingram. Why? Hell if I know. The guy is great. ESPN hates him too and never ever disregard how far Mathew Berry and the CTE crew from ESPN can push the public. They are the “experts” after all.

    Due to that his ownership will be very low like last week where he was just 6%. I’m playing him in cash with CMC, Ingram and Jacobs but very few other people will.

  • noddy

    @thedkexperience said...

    I think what he is saying is that the touts and general public fish players are always low on Ingram. Why? Hell if I know. The guy is great. ESPN hates him too and never ever disregard how far Mathew Berry and the CTE crew from ESPN can push the public. They are the “experts” after all.

    Due to that his ownership will be very low like last week where he was just 6%. I’m playing him in cash with CMC, Ingram and Jacobs but very few other people will.

    I’m trying to make a cash lineup with Mahomes, CMC, Ingram, and Mack. Not easy.

  • monarch

    Hicks has never missed a game in four seasons with the Bears….he dominates their O-Line. I’m planning on him being in until I hear that he is out. It doesn’t take a lot of prep to get a 355 pound defensive tackle ready to play a game.

  • thedkexperience

    @noddy said...

    I’m trying to make a cash lineup with Mahomes, CMC, Ingram, and Mack. Not easy.

    No, it definitely is not.

  • Njsum1

    @thedkexperience said...

    No, it definitely is not.

    No it’s easy 😁

  • Njsum1

    Very interesting week. Lots of smash spots/players/games. Gonna have to spread it around more than I’d like, and hope I sneak one to the top, or else I’ll just be paying the rake weekend.

  • noddy

    @thedkexperience said...

    No, it definitely is not.

    I have 2 receivers from Washington…that can’t be good.

  • SteeloCity

    Some interesting things I’ve seen on RG so far and I know these are subject to change, but here it goes (all these are for FD):

    Goff at just 5% owned, has a great matchup and surrounded by talented receivers. Smash spot.

    Mark Ingram 5%, Dalvin Cook 10%, Marlon Mack 7%, Josh Jacobs 5%, Leonard Fournette 10%. Looks like the chalk is easily going to be CMC, Gallman, and Ek. I think if you play a few lineups you could do CMC and then differentiate between a few of the lesser owned guys. I love Jacobs and Fournette this week.

    Allen looks to be the only chalk play here at 34%. Followed by Fitz at 18% and Lockett at 18%. Kupp only at 8%, Cooks at 8%, and Robert Woods at 7% could be a super smash spot. I’m honestly considering taking a GPP flier on all three. I also like Christian Kirk, Preston Williams, and Paul Richardson for a potential pivot off of McLaurin if he doesn’t play. Really do like McLaurin’s game though.

    Kelce, Dissly, and Engram look to be chalk at 18%, 16%, and 14%. I like Waller personally but will have a few of the above scattered in.

    Chargers and Rams at 18% and 14%. I love the Rams this week. I also earlier in the week said I liked the Bills at home. I normally wouldn’t bet against Brady and a 7-point dog, but I will have a few Bills D in there. If you’re looking other places I’d say Jaguars, Vikings, and Panthers are promising. Panthers D is slept on this week.

    Let me hear your thoughts, trying to provide more value than just asking questions.

  • Dakotasbest

    @thedkexperience said...

    I play 1 or 2 LUs a week in the million only under the assumption that if my main LU ever breaks 200 and I don’t have it in there I’ll throw myself off my balcony.

    I shouldn’t laugh as much as I did at this but I would do the same thing.

  • squidkill

    “”“Very interesting week. Lots of smash spots/players/games. Gonna have to spread it around more than I’d like, and hope I sneak one to the top, or else I’ll just be paying the rake weekend.”“”“

    Wow- total opposite take- I think there is a small concentrate games and players this week. Very small field very select games I want to attack- Total opposite.

  • Njsum1

    @SteeloCity said...

    Some interesting things I’ve seen on RG so far and I know these are subject to change, but here it goes (all these are for FD):

    Goff at just 5% owned, has a great matchup and surrounded by talented receivers. Smash spot.

    Mark Ingram 5%, Dalvin Cook 10%, Marlon Mack 7%, Josh Jacobs 5%, Leonard Fournette 10%. Looks like the chalk is easily going to be CMC, Gallman, and Ek. I think if you play a few lineups you could do CMC and then differentiate between a few of the lesser owned guys. I love Jacobs and Fournette this week.

    Allen looks to be the only chalk play here at 34%. Followed by Fitz at 18% and Lockett at 18%. Kupp only at 8%, Cooks at 8%, and Robert Woods at 7% could be a super smash spot. I’m honestly considering taking a GPP flier on all three. I also like Christian Kirk, Preston Williams, and Paul Richardson for a potential pivot off of McLaurin if he doesn’t play. Really do like McLaurin’s game though.

    Kelce, Dissly, and Engram look to be chalk at 18%, 16%, and 14%. I like Waller personally but will have a few of the above scattered in.

    Chargers and Rams at 18% and 14%. I love the Rams this week. I also earlier in the week said I liked the Bills at home. I normally wouldn’t bet against Brady and a 7-point dog, but I will have a few Bills D in there. If you’re looking other places I’d say Jaguars, Vikings, and Panthers are promising. Panthers D is slept on this week.

    Let me hear your thoughts, trying to provide more value than just asking questions.

    I mean what’s there to say, sounds good.

    I like Samuel and DJ Moore as well. I usually gobble chalk, and differentiate elsewhere, yet I’m not in love with the chalk guys you mentioned. I should have some unique lineups come Sunday.

    Ravens def, interesting as well.

  • AVivier

    No Turbo Terry at practice for WAS as of now. No TY for Indi.

  • monarch

    Everyone playing Redskins and Giants. Once again it looks like I’m getting Julio type players at depressed ownership. I think he will outscore Terry McLaurin

    Cook, CMC, Ekeler. Nice plays but I don’t see how they are at all necessary. Cook wasn’t necessary last week vs the Raiders…he might have a great game and post 29 DK points but I don’t think that gets anyone to the top.

  • noddy

    Is Ridley a good cash play? Only 1 target last week

  • monarch

    @noddy said...

    Is Ridley a good cash play? Only 1 target last week

    He is the definition of GPP play.

    Cash game WRs for you are probably Kupp, Shepard, Lockett, Preston Williams since it looks like you are paying up at RB. Probably MeCole Hardman since you are playing Mahomes. The Chiefs will get the ball in his hands

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @robgun3 said...

    Anyone willing to share some advice for a long time subscriber?

    I’ve been playing NFL DFS for about 4 years now (non MME) and haven’t turned much of a profit. I have read numerous articles and even used the rotoacademy video series (great content) Lifetime, i’m close to even thanks to some lucky top 10 finishes in smaller tournaments. Here are some things I do weekly: check vegas lines/OU and news/injury reports, go game by game and loosely predict game theory, read and watch videos from multiple sites including rotogrinders premium content. By Saturday I feel like I have a good grasp on the games, but my player pool remains way to big, especially for a non MME player (mainly financial reasons). When I finally sit down to build lineups, all of my confidence goes out the window, and I feel overwhelmed with my large player pool and info I gathered from so many sources. I basically get writers block. This lasts all the way up to about an hour before kickoff and I end up making about 10 lineups per week that are sprinkled with players that go off, but I just can’t seem to get it together.

    Does this happen to anyone else? If so, did you get past it and improve?

    If this seems callous then please accept my apology because it’s not meant that way. Why do you play DFS? Are you a big sports fan or do you do it as a supplemental income kind of thing “(mainly financial reasons)” ? You sound stressed out by it. After season longing it for 2 centuries, DFS was a natural progression for me. I’ve been DFSing 5 years and like you haven’t turned much of a profit either. Not a MME’er either. But I enjoy the heck out of it. The process, the tweaking of the process, this forum, all fun for me. And it doesn’t hurt that I’ve been a NFL addict for more years than most of this forum has been alive lol and am a sucker for that Sunday Sweat. As for your too large player pool, I’m not sure what kind of slates/tournies you play but maybe you can cut down the size of your pool by playing just early/just late slates. My biggest piece of advice is two fold.
    1- Don’t take it personal when you whiff on a play while your fade smashes, it happens to EVERYONE in the DFS universe.
    2- Read this forum, for every play someone likes, there’s someone that doesn’t like it. Then you get the “this is why he’s a good play” vs “this is why he’s not” arguments. Lot of good info in those sometimes. Your job is to find which times
    Perhaps @NDNole said it best, don’t take it so serious, its just a game. Spend only what you can afford to lose and enjoy watching the game and hopefully your winnings will come.

  • Njsum1

    “Wow- total opposite take- I think there is a small concentrate games and players this week. Very small field very select games I want to attack- Total opposite”

    My quote button works (I know you mentioned yours doesn’t), I just couldn’t resist 🍻😁.

    Imo…There’s just lots of value I perceive to be good value, not just cheap players. However, surprisingly it’s not the chalky guys.

    Also lots of teams that could go off, yet some it’s hard to peg where the production will come from.

    I can see pass catchers from…KC, Rams, NYG, Was, Arizona, Det, Carolina, Sea, SD…maybe Hou going off. That’s like 10 teams off the top of my head, and I’m sure I’m forgetting some.

    Tons of rb with potential…Like literally everyone…KJ, Jacobs, Mack, McCaff, Ingram, Fournette, Ekeler, Cook, DJ, McCoy. Gallman (who I’m not sold on, yet have a feeling might do well, just because I think the giants will move the ball, and if he falls over the goal line once, he’s basically there).

    TE and QB, I’ve got narrowed down to like 4 each. 🤷‍♂️

  • JTAx33

    Calvin Ridley is NEVER good cash play

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