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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 9/26
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 9/29
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -6.5 ) at Detroit ( 6.5 ) —- T: 53.5
    1:00 PM EST : Oakland ( 7 ) at Indianapolis ( -7 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( 5 ) at Atlanta ( -5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( -16.5 ) at Miami ( 16.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5.5 ) at Baltimore ( -5.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Buffalo ( 7.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -4 ) at Arizona ( 4 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 10 ) at LA Rams ( -10 ) —- T: 48.5
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Chicago ( -3 ) —- T: 38
    4:25 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Denver ( -3 ) —- T: 37.5
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: 45.5

    Monday, 9/30
    8:15 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 4.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4.5 ) —- T: 43.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • 808state

    @DC2380 said...

    Can someone explain why chubb was a good play?? Baltimore run defense that bad?

    They were missing a defensive tackle who was ruled out this morning.

    Brandon Williams

  • damionismyname

    • Ranked #99

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jcotdl said...

    chubb has an 80 % snap share. uptempo game. why the luck box stuff? seems silly when a bellcow goes big it is lucky. BAL D has been shielded by their O, they’re aren’t good.

    bell cow means nothing, look at Cooks getting shut down. Bal run d hasnt be that bad, Clev run d has been gashed and Bal run game did nothing. Take away the 88 yard run and he has 60-70 yards.

  • yisman

    @gravitymaze said...

    Nice. What made you believe the New York D would do so well?

    if you’re asking me, I used them because they were in the best spot of the cheap defenses

    Miami was $5 but that pick had no upside. Giants were the traditional minimum of $10 and were in a spot against a bad offense where they should’ve been more like $17

  • jcotdl

    @damionismyname said...

    bell cow means nothing, look at Cooks getting shut down. Bal run d hasnt be that bad, Clev run d has been gashed and Bal run game did nothing. Take away the 88 yard run and he has 60-70 yards.

    Ok, but he did have that run. CLE run d and BAL run game don’t really correlate. So Why the face?

  • NDNole

    @808state said...

    They were missing a defensive tackle who was ruled out this morning.

    Brandon Williams

    I 2nd that. Somewhere in this thread someone mentioned this exact thing before games started. Props to whoever that was.

  • Renodog

    @spx333 said...

    sharps got wrecked today….Vegas books made billions today just wow!!!

    Can you explain this to me, assume I am ignorant, which I may well be. Doesn’t Vegas just want balanced bets? Did the bets get unbalanced in favor of these top 10 outcomes, in a significant way?

  • mtdurham

    @Renodog said...

    Can you explain this to me, assume I am ignorant, which I may well be. Doesn’t Vegas just want balanced bets? Did the bets get unbalanced in favor of these top 10 outcomes, in a significant way?

    vegas doesnt mind taking stands when they feel good about their number. Especially if it isnt a HUGE event (super bowl, title fight, etc) They are in the business of maximizing revenue.

    In the NFL they often “have” to take a stand as they can’t just move the line a half point if they’‘re on 3,6,7 for fear of getting middled.

  • firemedicpat

    • 762

      RG Overall Ranking

    Finally Kirk does something…FLAG.

  • Ace15

    • 918

      RG Overall Ranking

    I think Im done with NFL DFS. Might just wait until NBA starts.

  • kdsdawg

    The sooner everybody realizes DFS is 99.9% luck the happier you will be. Variance is just another word for luck..just gamble and enjoy

  • TJRhodes

    @Ace15 said...

    I think Im done with NFL DFS. Might just wait until NBA starts.

    We need CG back.

  • chronoxiong

    Wow. Cardinals suck so much today. Wilson and the rest of his teammates dont even need to try hard anymore. This is bullshit.

  • Logan7777

    @firemedicpat said...

    The Cardinals are down by 17 and run, run, run, run throw to DJ, run, run….fucking trash.

    And you expected something different from an 0-2-1 team?

  • mtdurham

    @kdsdawg said...

    The sooner everybody realizes DFS is 99.9% luck the happier you will be. Variance is just another word for luck..just gamble and enjoy

    other than week 1 i feel like NFL has been extremely predictable so far. Most of the best plays have done well and a good percentage of the pivots have too.

    This is only my 2nd season but it has been imminently easier this year than last year so far.

    I do expect it to continue to get tougher as i can tell from general board sentiment that a lot of people will be losing interest here soon if they dont turn it around.

    I think narrowing the player pool is really the key in NFL. You wanna try to cash the majority of your lineups because its so hard to take down a 300,000 man contest that you need to be cashing more frequently instead of just relying on the occasional big score.

    Next week the advantage really goes toward the people willing to do the research becasue we get Opponent Adjusted Data to work with

  • firemedicpat

    • 762

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Logan7777 said...

    And you expected something different from an 0-2-1 team?

    I’m expecting one of their WRs to have more than a catch.

  • Logan7777

    @chronoxiong said...

    Wow. Cardinals suck so much today. Wilson and the rest of his teammates dont even need to try hard anymore. This is bullshit.

    Sucks big. I need another TD pass from Wilson.

  • DC2380

    @mtdurham said...

    Baltimore run defense has been pretty darn good this far. Chubb gets a lot of volume, goalline touches, and ne can break long runs so I wouldn’t say he was a “bad play” but he prob shouldn’t have been in anyone’s core in mme. At 4% ownership he only has to succeed in that spot once every 1.5 seasons to be a profitable play.

    I was 72%, $6400 Derrick henry. Who I still think was the better play but it hurts not throwing some of that exposure chubby way.

    I’ve really been set on narrowing my rb plays down going forward this year though. Fanning out too much can really hurt when your plays are good but you dont smack one single lineup hard in gpp.

    Thanks for the insight

  • gravitymaze

    @Smallchimp said...

    I don’t think you know what chalk means. Chalk just means a popular play. Gallman was chalk. Evidently good chalk, but chalk nonetheless

    Meh at this point who cares about the argument? The winners always have .04 guys owned anyway.

  • Logan7777

    @firemedicpat said...

    I’m expecting one of their WRs to have more than a catch.

    Your expectations are way too high.

  • firemedicpat

    • 762

      RG Overall Ranking

    Please god. Cardinals just throw the ball you morons.

  • shades

    Week 4 starting to show Offensive & Defensive Contenders from Pretenders 4 sure.

  • kdsdawg

    @TJRhodes said...

    We need CG back.

    Why? He does have great analysis but it is just random BS luck

  • kdsdawg

    @mtdurham said...

    other than week 1 i feel like NFL has been extremely predictable so far. Most of the best plays have done well and a good percentage of the pivots have too.

    This is only my 2nd season but it has been imminently easier this year than last year so far.

    I do expect it to continue to get tougher as i can tell from general board sentiment that a lot of people will be losing interest here soon if they dont turn it around.

    I think narrowing the player pool is really the key in NFL. You wanna try to cash the majority of your lineups because its so hard to take down a 300,000 man contest that you need to be cashing more frequently instead of just relying on the occasional big score.

    After next week the advantage really goes toward the people willing to do the research becasue we get Opponent Adjusted Data to work with

    Yes because of all of that BS would have told you to play Winston on the road against a good defense…along with Godwin….or Chubb against Baltimore on the road ..or, or ,or….lol

  • damionismyname

    • Ranked #99

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jcotdl said...

    Ok, but he did have that run. CLE run d and BAL run game don’t really correlate. So Why the face?

    because you’re saying bell cow backs but Ingram didnt do anything against a worse run d.

  • firemedicpat

    • 762

      RG Overall Ranking

    @firemedicpat said...

    Please god. Cardinals just throw the ball you morons.

    Now hit Kirk when he is wide open.

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