NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 1st
    8:20 PM EST : Denver ( -2.5 ) at NY Jets ( 2.5 ) —- T: 40

    Sunday, October 4th
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( 4 ) at Houston ( -4 ) —- T: 52
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 7 ) at Tampa Bay ( -7 ) —- T: 45.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -13 ) at Washington ( 13 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Seattle ( -7 ) at Miami ( 7 ) —- T: 54.5
    1:00 PM EST : Indianapolis ( -3 ) at Chicago ( 3 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( -3.5 ) at Carolina ( 3.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 1 ) at Tennessee ( -1 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 5 ) at Dallas ( -5 ) —- T: 55.5
    1:00 PM EST : New Orleans ( -5.5 ) at Detroit ( 5.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : NY Giants ( 12 ) at LA Rams ( -12 ) —- T: 48
    4:25 PM EST : New England ( 7 ) at Kansas City ( -7 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Buffalo ( -2.5 ) at Las Vegas ( 2.5 ) —- T: 49.5
    8:20 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 6 ) at San Francisco ( -6 ) —- T: 43

    Monday, October 5th
    8:15 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6 ) at Green Bay ( -6 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • BIF

    @JCappy said...

    Keenan Allen has gotten 29 targets in two games with Herbert and is 6500. Mike Evans should hit 10+ targets again without Godwin and is only 6400.

    How is Adam Thielen more expensive than these two???

    Thielen plays Houston in a high total game

    Evans will get the WR1 treatment and shadow from Casey Hayward and Keenan’s matchup is no gimme either versus Bucs improved secondary; this game could be slower and lower scoring as Bucs likely get TEs and RBs involved with injuries to Godwin, Fournette and a banged up WR3 Scotty Miller. I’ll be underweight this game other than Gronk (played 92% of snaps and active in passing game) and a couple punt shots on RoJo, Shady and Howard

  • BIF

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I’ve been warming to the idea of Stafford stacks. With the Saints injuries on defense and how the offense is a little out of sync. Maybe a sneaky time for the Lions to get right?

    Lattimore and Jackrabbit both out – agreed you have to look at Lions pass catchers with Saints losing their top 2 CBs

  • Joeltimb

    Cam out with coronavirus.

  • JCappy

    @Joeltimb said...

    Cam out with coronavirus.

    Whaaaaaaaaaaaaatt

  • JCappy

    This good for Byrd and Harry?

  • monarch

    @JCappy said...

    This good for Byrd and Harry?

    I think it is bad for them. Good for KC DST

  • Dfspacman

    This Nfl season probably getting canceled soon..

  • Straightfire118

    Chiefs game is probably postponed now, NFL turning into a sh** show.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Wow..just wow.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @JCappy said...

    This good for Byrd and Harry?

    You don’t think they’ll cancel game now in lieu of further testing?

  • JCappy

    @monarch said...

    I think it is bad for them. Good for KC DST

    I could hear the argument either way. Patriots were probably going to at least try to keep the ball out of Mahomes hands and that probably meant a high end Cam rushing game — 12+ carries.

    Cam being out makes this a larger spread which means more passing from New England.

    Would you rather have you rather have 28 pass attempts from Can or 38 from Hoyer?

  • JCappy

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    You don’t think they’ll cancel game now in lieu of further testing?

    I don’t know.

  • monarch

    @JCappy said...

    I could hear the argument either way. Patriots were probably going to at least try to keep the ball out of Mahomes hands and that probably meant a high end Cam rushing game — 12+ carries.

    Cam being out makes this a larger spread which means more passing from New England.

    Would you rather have you rather have 28 pass attempts from Can or 38 from Hoyer?

    If i was interested in Byrd or Harry i would much rather have Cam in. He appears to be committed to pushing the ball out to them along the boundary which should result in higher outcome routes than what I expect from Hoyer.

  • JCappy

    @monarch said...

    If i was interested in Byrd or Harry i would much rather have Cam in. He appears to be committed to pushing the ball out to them along the boundary which should result in higher outcome routes than what I expect from Hoyer.

    I’d rather have Cam in a vacuum — I just think this leads to more pass attempts overall.

  • BIF

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    Somebody listens to Alvin Ziedenfield too much. Do not spew that ‘we cannot predict TD’s’ nonsense. I love Ziedenfield but that’s just the stupidest thing he says. Every team has a predicted point total, red zone target %‘s for each player, opponents who funnel you to run or throw, and history of players in previous seasons giving averages of how many TD’S and red zone attempts they have. There are several players this week who have not found the endzone yet and very highly likely that they will soon. I just don’t get that statement at all.

    Never listened to a podcast in my life, but it’s true you cannot accurately predict TDs – you can project them but your variance on that is huge. This is also one of the (many) reasons I don’t play FD as it’s more touchdown dependent.

    Yes you can use the same historical data to make your TD predictions that opponents use to come up with a defensive plan then surprise surprise surprise, offensive coaches change their tendency inside the 5yd line and throw to a backup TE or OL for a TD or 43 year Tom Brady sneaks one in.

    Injuries, game script, in-game matchup adjustments and field position all greatly impact and play into who scores TDs and you cannot accurately predict any of those.

    Volume/opportunities will trump TD predictions

    Side note on the comment about each team having a Team Total, yes but as a seasoned NFL bettor (30+ years of it), I know the average game total that Vegas posts misses by over 7 points – the secret is not to follow the sheep assuming Team X will score 23.5 points but to figure out why Team X is more likely to smash that number and score 28-31 instead and figure out who would get the most volume (touches/targets) in that scenario.

  • monarch

    I am leaning towards that game not playing based off what I am reading.

  • Straightfire118

    If this Kc game is going to be postponed, DK is going to have to refund best ball leagues. It’s too much of a sh** show at this point.

  • marker0357

    @Straightfire118 said...

    If this Kc game is going to be postponed, DK is going to have to refund best ball leagues. It’s too much of a sh** show at this point.

    that won’t happen

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @BIF said...

    Never listened to a podcast in my life, but it’s true you cannot accurately predict TDs – you can project them but your variance on that is huge. This is also one of the (many) reasons I don’t play FD as it’s more touchdown dependent.

    Yes you can use the same historical data to make your TD predictions that opponents use to come up with a defensive plan then surprise surprise surprise, offensive coaches change their tendency inside the 5yd line and throw to a backup TE or OL for a TD or 43 year Tom Brady sneaks one in.

    Injuries, game script, in-game matchup adjustments and field position all greatly impact and play into who scores TDs and you cannot accurately predict any of those.

    Volume/opportunities will trump TD predictions

    Side note on the comment about each team having a Team Total, yes but as a seasoned NFL bettor (30+ years of it), I know the average game total that Vegas posts misses by over 7 points – the secret is not to follow the sheep assuming Team X will score 23.5 points but to figure out why Team X is more likely to smash that number and score 28-31 instead and figure out who would get the most volume (touches/targets) in that scenario.

    Doesn’t add up on my end. But you aren’t the only one with that philosophy. You’re calling touchdowns a predictions but touches / opportunities are somehow written in stone. Both are predictions based on historical data. The point of the game is to score TD afterall, not receptions and yardage. TD’S and touches both will happen.

  • monarch

    Doesn’t look like the game will happen tomorrow. They may try for Monday or Tuesday. I doubt the Chiefs want to move this game vs the Patriots into a week 18 or 19 when they can play them right now without Cam. Either way the Patriots are not expected to travel to KC today as of now

  • marker0357

    @monarch said...

    Doesn’t look like the game will happen tomorrow. They may try for Monday or Tuesday. I doubt the Chiefs want to move this game vs the Patriots into a week 18 or 19 when they can play them right now without Cam. Either way the Patriots are not expected to travel to KC today as of now

    Bummer. I’ve got Hardman all over the place as my cheap WR.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Call me old fashioned but if I have 2 players to choose from and one averages 8 targets per game 10 yards per reception, and 0.5 RZ targets per game with a team total of 21, and the second option averages 7 targets per game with 3 RZ targets per game and a team total of 35, I’m leaning towards choice B.

    I don’t see the benefit in excluding data.

  • monarch

    It is more likely the Chiefs would be the one to travel if this game were to happen in week 4 IMO. No way the league puts the entire Patriots organization on a plane right now.

  • yisman

    Patriots/Chiefs postponed

    hoping to play Monday or Tuesday

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    I respect it though. There are many weeks where I see a player, the team he’s up against and how he’s been performing for example maybe he missed on a few endzone targets but the QB still keeps looking his way, sometimes I get that feel that a player is due for some TD regression. Like we all know Obj is getting in tomorrow.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL only.