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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 5th
    8:25 PM EST : New England ( -4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 54

    Sunday, October 8th
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 2 ) at Indianapolis ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at NY Giants ( -4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3 ) at Miami ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 39
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 1.5 ) at LA Rams ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, October 9th
    8:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Dadeano860

    @CleverGroom said...

    Love Hilton. I’m happy with Dez, Cobb, and Jordy too (might just want naked Sad Eyes in cash). Fitz is a sell going into an EST morning start after playing nearly grueling 5 quarters last week. Nuk is red hot fire and would be an unconditional cash game lock for me on FD

    Yeah, I hear you with ARod. But he’s freaking $9500 on FD, $1700 more than Dak and $2000 more than Deshaun Watson.

    Hilton, Dez, Cobb, Jordy and Nuk are my top tier guys. Can’t fit them all with Bell and Gurley. Going to have to make a tough decision, but this week seems to have a more condensed cash playable player pool (at least to those who put in the work).

  • Dadeano860

    @gillio said...

    First off you shouldnt compare what a corner back did to Jeffery and think it’ll happen to Odell. Jeffery isn’t really the number one in that offense, only got 6 targets. Ertz is Wentz preferred target. Jeffery is not even close talent wise to Odell. Also other receivers have been doing fairly well against the chargers this season. On a team with no rushing attack and Odell getting at least 12 targets (my prediction), I think Odell is the best WR play this weekend followed closely by Jordy. I will have both in my lineup

    You are right, OBJ and AB are special players, that’s why I quickly mentioned they were “matchup proof” after saying I didn’t like their matchups. Saying Jeffrey only got 6 targets helped my point, Hayward is a true shut down corner, that’s why he only got 6 targets.

    OBJ can go off in any matchup. I’m not going there vs a shutdown corner, hobbling around all last game, with Eli as his QB. Top that off with the Giants new quick hitting offense and you’re betting on OBJ taking a slant to the house. This offense doesn’t throw downfield anymore due to the horrid oline.

    But hey, I’m a Giants fan and forever pessimistic. Too depressing to risk watching them lose and OBJ get held in check.

  • Kennybass065

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Couple of decisions to make (single/low entry GPPS and a milly entry)

    One of Jermaine Kearse or Robbie Anderson is going to have a 20+ performance and I am leaning Kearse, but I want one of them as my WR3. You can stack Kearse with Josh McCown for a combined price of $9000 so if they have any kind of game, at home against Cleveland by the way, it will absolutely crush value. And you can roster multiple stud RBs and WRs with all of that extra savings. So Kearse or Anderson?

    Can I trust Christian McCaffrey to deliver some solid value this weekend? At Detroit against the #1 pass defense vs RBs thru week 4 has me second guessing his passing game upside. I just don’t know who else I like around his $5700 price on DK.

    I have McCown to ASJ. Revenge game for McCown. Sounds stupid at first but I’m willing to take a chance for that little of salary.

  • sholden

    @gillio said...

    Steelers have a bad rushing defense and Fournette has crazy volume… so what’s your reasoning for “especially fournette”?

    I have no idea where you’re getting the notion that the Steelers have a bad rush defense?
    DVOA vs. Rush
    2017: 10
    2016: 11
    2015: 5

    I’m also not sure why you’d say Fournette has “crazy volume.”

    He’s averaging 20 rushes a game. He’s played 55% of the snaps this season, while Ivory has played 40% of the snaps.

    To me it’s simple. You take the RB on the other side of the ball who had over 35 touches last game with no threat of a stolen job against an actually bad run defense. Once the Jags get down big in this game (which they will) Fournette will not be seeing touches, and Ivory will come in.

  • Njsum1

    @MattyK1981 said...

    One of Jermaine Kearse or Robbie Anderson is going to have a 20+ performance and I am leaning Kearse, but I want one of them as my WR3. You can stack Kearse with Josh McCown for a combined price of $9000 so if they have any kind of game, at home against Cleveland by the way, it will absolutely crush value. And you can roster multiple stud RBs and WRs with all of that extra savings. So Kearse or Anderson?

    Haha…I posted this on page 14 of this thread. Unfortunately you’re going to have to sprinkle in both because you don’t really know who it will be. It could be ASJ as well, yet a receiver will likely go off too.

    In cash you could theoretically play the hedge and play both Kearse and Anderson, figuring one guy will score 17-20 the other will get like 7. So you’ll get 24-27 points for 8.4k. I don’t play cash, yet In GPP ill have a McCown, Kearse, Anderson, ASJ stack. It costs 16.4k…gotta figure if things go poorly the stack will get you 2x, yet if it goes well you could be looking at 4x that price.

  • Dadeano860

    @Njsum1 said...

    McCown, Kearse, Anderson, ASJ stack.

    This might be the most disturbing stack of players I’ve ever seen mentioned. Run it back with Ricardo Louis and Devalve and I think you are onto something.

  • Linsanity88

    @gillio said...

    I’m off Gurley this week, yeah he’s been phenomenal but look who he’s played.. pretty bad run defenses, this will be his first matchup against a great defense, perfect flop situation for him. I won’t be paying higher than Fournette this week. Fournette is in a fantastic spot, haven’t missed on him yet and I don’t think he disappoints this week either

    Huh? The Seahawks will be the worst rushing D that Gurley has played all year, and it’s not particularly close. Seahawks are 30th in rush DVOA and allowing 5 YPC. The other 4 teams that Gurley has faced are the Colts, Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys. Those 4 teams are 23rd, 4th, 12th and 28th in defensive rush DVOA and allow 4, 3.9, 3.3 and 4.2 YPC respectively.

  • Njsum1

    @Dadeano860 said...

    This might be the most disturbing stack of players I’ve ever seen mentioned. Run it back with Ricardo Louis and Devalve and I think you are onto something.

    Ok, then don’t play it. Its obviously no lock, as nothing ever is. No need to run it back with anything. The rest of that lineup will be filled with week 5’s best plays/players.

  • Hiqhliqht

    Why is everyone on Dez? Packers are good versus the pass this year
    Gimme Evans, Bell, Gurley, and the target hog Hopkins (Peters only plays one side of the field)
    Will also check into the Seahawks RB

  • Linsanity88

    @Hiqhliqht said...

    Why is everyone on Dez? Packers are good versus the pass this year
    Gimme Evans, Bell, Gurley, and the target hog Hopkins (Peters only plays one side of the field)
    Will also check into the Seahawks RB

    Man, where do you people come up with some of these takes? The Packers are not “good” against the pass this year. They may not be as bad as they were last year, but the only good QB they’ve faced this year was Matt Ryan, who lit them up. They rank 15th in pass DVOA, which is just average.

    Dez is a target monster (his 40 targets are tied for 4th in the NFL) who has faced a murderer’s row of CBs to start the year (Janoris Jenkins, Denver’s no fly zone, Pat Peterson and Trumaine Johnson). He now has, at worst, a decent matchup, is way underpriced at only $6500 on DK, and should continue to see 10-12 targets with upside for more. The last time he played the Packers at home he pasted them for 9 catches (on 12 targets) for 132 yards and 2 TDs. That’s crazy good upside at his price.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @sholden said...

    I have no idea where you’re getting the notion that the Steelers have a bad rush defense?
    DVOA vs. Rush
    2017: 10
    2016: 11
    2015: 5

    I’m also not sure why you’d say Fournette has “crazy volume.”

    He’s averaging 20 rushes a game. He’s played 55% of the snaps this season, while Ivory has played 40% of the snaps.

    To me it’s simple. You take the RB on the other side of the ball who had over 35 touches last game with no threat of a stolen job against an actually bad run defense. Once the Jags get down big in this game (which they will) Fournette will not be seeing touches, and Ivory will come in.

    This is why I watch the games and rarely believe in the numbers…keep in mind 6 of the Steelers games are against Ravens, Bengals and Browns NONE of which have a solid RB in years.

  • mike42

    @sholden said...

    To me it’s simple. You take the RB on the other side of the ball who had over 35 touches last game with no threat of a stolen job against an actually bad run defense. Once the Jags get down big in this game (which they will) Fournette will not be seeing touches, and Ivory will come in.

    I just don’t think bell gets 39 touches this game, last game was the statement game for Tomlin. Think they try to mix it up more, get Ben/ab going a bit. Juju may even be a good play if he’s the only one not being covered by a top shelf corner. Think too many people are going to chase the 2 TD, 39 touch performance like it’s 2016 all over again, but it’s not, Pit just seems off to me across the board. They got talent everywhere but they are not dominating anyone anymore. They haven’t pulled away from anyone and they haven’t played anyone who you could say was definitively better than JAX. I think this game is more of a dog fight than an offensive showcase for PIT/BELL because those are the type of games PIT has played in EVERY SINGLE WEEK ALL YEAR long.

    Whether it’s PIT, SEA, NE or ATL, everyone is assuming that these teams who dominated opponents last year are going to do the same this year and that has simply not been the case. Sea’s D is not dominating this year, ATL was struggling to win before they lost and Pit is missing explosiveness on O and toughness on D. We are 4 games in, the body of evidence is significant enough to begin to draw conclusions and outside of GB, the top teams from last year don’t look that good. I can see Fournette having a big day against PIT because I watched Howard, Cohen and Alex Freak’n Collins run all over this D the last 2 weeks, why can’t a much more talented back do the same?

  • deactivated204643

    I may have missed it but have we talked about Wayne Gallman ($3900 DK) yet? His snap % was very high after Perkins went down. He looked proficient as a receiver catching a short td pass and he ran with good vision and burst. At least 2 or 3 carries inside the 10 IIRC. He looked good, at least compared to Perkins & Darkwa. The Giants are a 4.5 favorite at home against the 24th ranked dvoa rushing defense. Why are we not all over this?

    Edit: sorry for misspelling his name, it’s correct now.

  • Dunzor

    @bluebroker said...

    I may have missed it but have we talked about Wayne Gallmen ($3900 DK) yet? His snap % was very high after Perkins went down. He looked proficient as a receiver catching a short td pass and he ran with good vision and burst. At least 2 or 3 carries inside the 10 IIRC. He looked good, at least compared to Perkins & Darkwa. The Giants are a 4.5 favorite at home against the 24th ranked dvoa rushing defense. Why are we not all over this?

    He’s currently sitting in my flex slot on DK, so I’m with you. We’ll probably learn a bit more from Giants practice this week but if it sounds like he’s gonna get work then I like him for sure

  • mike42

    That concussion was Goodwin’s 4th in 14 months, think you can start playing around with Lord Aldrick LU’s

  • econbrah11

    I made a sneaky good LU on FD with Bell/Gurley/Jordy/Hilton/Parker. The only downside is that Hoyer is my QB. But against Indy I like to think he could have a decent game especially is Hyde is still injured.

  • miggs6876

    @Syzltuth said...

    Trubisky starting for the bears Monday

    Go ahead play him.

  • parrothead112

    Considering going Hoyer for cash. Do I have to play Hyde if I go this way?

  • Brian7479

    Anybody actually watch some of the Miami game last week? I noticed Cutler is doing this thing where he isn’t setting his feet and is falling backwards while he throws. Even when there’s no pressure on him. I’ll have my shares of Parker but I will say that if Cutler keeps throwing like that parker won’t win a GPP this week. If I was one of the coaches I would’ve had a hard time not putting my hands on him for throwing so carelessly like that as if he was never taught to set his feet in the pocket.

  • deactivated204643

    @Dunzor said...

    He’s currently sitting in my flex slot on DK, so I’m with you. We’ll probably learn a bit more from Giants practice this week but if it sounds like he’s gonna get work then I like him for sure

    Cool. I’m not saying he’s the second coming but he’s the best back I’ve seen on their offense in the past couple years. His pass blocking looked alright too. My early week prediction is McAdoo gets him 15+ touches.

  • qnova34

    @bluebroker said...

    Cool. I’m not saying he’s the second coming but he’s the best back I’ve seen on their offense in the past couple years. His pass blocking looked alright too. My early week prediction is McAdoo gets him 15+ touches.

    I like Gallman here too, but am gonna reserve him until I hear reports about Perkins/Darkwa and his usage for this week. The question is do we even have to play him with Lacy at 3.4k likely to be filling the Chris Carson role against the Rams??

  • sholden

    @mike42 said...

    I just don’t think bell gets 39 touches this game, last game was the statement game for Tomlin. Think they try to mix it up more, get Ben/ab going a bit. Juju may even be a good play if he’s the only one not being covered by a top shelf corner. Think too many people are going to chase the 2 TD, 39 touch performance like it’s 2016 all over again, but it’s not, Pit just seems off to me across the board. They got talent everywhere but they are not dominating anyone anymore. They haven’t pulled away from anyone and they haven’t played anyone who you could say was definitively better than JAX. I think this game is more of a dog fight than an offensive showcase for PIT/BELL because those are the type of games PIT has played in EVERY SINGLE WEEK ALL YEAR long.

    Whether it’s PIT, SEA, NE or ATL, everyone is assuming that these teams who dominated opponents last year are going to do the same this year and that has simply not been the case. Sea’s D is not dominating this year, ATL was struggling to win before they lost and Pit is missing explosiveness on O and toughness on D. We are 4 games in, the body of evidence is significant enough to begin to draw conclusions and outside of GB, the top teams from last year don’t look that good. I can see Fournette having a big day against PIT because I watched Howard, Cohen and Alex Freak’n Collins run all over this D the last 2 weeks, why can’t a much more talented back do the same?

    I don’t think Bell gets 39 touches in this game either. However, I think you are absolutely foolish to think four weeks is a big enough sample size to rule out years of data. If anything, the first four weeks were a precursor of allowing Bell to get back into a real-time game setting due to missing all of camp and the pre-season + being out at the end of the previous year due to injury. That’s a lot of missed time that he’s working back into from.

    If anything, JAX’s pass D is underrated…but their rush D is just bad. It makes no sense to fade one of the best active RBs in the NFL vs. one of the worst rush defenses because you are worried about four weeks of data. Hell, if the Steelers don’t blow out JAX then Bell will carry the ball even more.

    A much more talented back (Dalvin Cook) struggled to run the ball against this defense. Crowell struggled against this defense. Not to mention, Fournette’s snap percentage is extremely limited to other workhorse backs like Bell.

    Fournette’s snap count: 55%
    Bell’s: 90%

    You need to look more into the numbers – the reason the Bears had so many yards is because they had a longer TOP in an OT game. Alex Collins didn’t “run all over this D”, he busted one 50 yard play, which skewed his rush yard numbers.

    One thing to mention is EVERYONE knows the Steelers play bad as a team on the road, ESPECIALLY to lesser competition. And that is exactly what their schedule has been..road games against weaker competition.

    I’m also shocked that we are debating whether or not to play Bell against the Jaguars – this is hilarious. Feel free to H2H me on FD if you fade him.

  • Syzltuth

    @miggs6876 said...

    Go ahead play him.

    Anything in that single sentence refer to me wanting to play him?

  • deactivated204643

    @qnova34 said...

    I like Gallman here too, but am gonna reserve him until I hear reports about Perkins/Darkwa and his usage for this week. The question is do we even have to play him with Lacy at 3.4k likely to be filling the Chris Carson role against the Rams??

    Lacy is interesting but he’ll likely be splitting carries with Rawls who Pete has already chirped about this week. Eddie’s lack of passing targets doesn’t help either (on DK). Throw in Prosise and McKissic and who the hell knows. After watching the NYG game I found this on rotoballer.com:

    ANALYSIS: New York Giants running back Wayne Gallman has yet to make a huge impact to start his NFL career, but a lack of a true running back in New York could lead to more opportunities as the season moves on. Paul Perkins and Orleans Darkwa each had opportunities to grab the starter’s role for the Giants, but they were not able to and Gallman had 11 carries and two catches against the Buccaneers in Week 4.

    The Giants have struggled to a 0-4 record, with basically no rushing attack, so Gallman could be in line for 20+ touches when New York hosts the Chargers in Week 5. Los Angeles is not particularly known for their defense (ranks 25th against fantasy RB) and this could be the opportunity that Gallman needs to make an impact.

  • qnova34

    @bluebroker said...

    Lacy is interesting but he’ll likely be splitting carries with Rawls who Pete has already chirped about this week. Eddie’s lack of passing targets doesn’t help either (on DK). Throw in Prosise and McKissic and who the hell knows. After watching the game I found this on rotoballer.com:

    ANALYSIS: New York Giants running back Wayne Gallman has yet to make a huge impact to start his NFL career, but a lack of a true running back in New York could lead to more opportunities as the season moves on. Paul Perkins and Orleans Darkwa each had opportunities to grab the starter’s role for the Giants, but they were not able to and Gallman had 11 carries and two catches against the Buccaneers in Week 4.

    The Giants have struggled to a 0-4 record, with basically no rushing attack, so Gallman could be in line for 20+ touches when New York hosts the Chargers in Week 5. Los Angeles is not particularly known for their defense (ranks 25th against fantasy RB) and this could be the opportunity that Gallman needs to make an impact.

    Thanks for the tip of Rawls.. I thought he’d be a non-factor considering he was a healthy scratch in favor of lacy last week.

    With Gallman he only came into the game after Perkins was ruled OUT with bruised ribs mid-game and Darkwa wasn’t with the team. Looks like Perkins day to day right now and I haven’t heard the status on Darkwa.

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