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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 5th
    8:25 PM EST : New England ( -4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 54

    Sunday, October 8th
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 2 ) at Indianapolis ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at NY Giants ( -4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3 ) at Miami ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 39
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 1.5 ) at LA Rams ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, October 9th
    8:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • deactivated204643

    http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2017/10/wayne_gallman_may_have_stolen_paul_perkins_job_as.html

    ^ another source (local). Apparently Gallman struggled with drops in training camp. I think McAdoo likes coaching and if I’m right I can’t see him hesitating to play this kid when they’re sitting 0-4.

  • gillio

    Do we like Lacy for $3400 this week ?

  • gillio

    If Hyde is healthy he’s my top back this week

    Anyone like a Brissett-Hilton stack? Cheap and let’s you get some top priced guys

  • Kloozy

    Ok so I think we all more or less know who to play, or at least the player pool we are picking from at the high and mid ranges. It just comes down to picking the right combo out of all of them. As we all know, almost every GPP winning LU has one dart throw, that just crushes value.

    So I was hoping we could spend some time discussing some dart throws that have a shot at hitting. Let’s take a break about debating which chalk is chalkiest or which top/mid tier is more likely to hit/exceed value. As the last few weeks have shown us, anyone can go off on any given Sunday…

    So let’s try to find us all some darts that can help us take down a GPP not just hit the 170 4x buy in, that is cool, but always kinda dissappointing. I don’t know about yall, but I want to win one of these things!!!!

    I am posting a starting list of some value plays, after this post to break it up some, not saying these are necessarily good picks, just trying to get the ball rolling. Hope y’all will join in for a bit and focus on this with me, and see if we can dial in on which dart throws might be worth a toss…

    EDIT: This is primarily focused on Dk

  • Kloozy

    So here’s the list, mostly WRs Reminder I’m not endorsing, just making a list of the players under 4500 that struck me as at the very least of having a shot at doing something…anything really.

    Start off with BAL, Flacco 4700,  Wallace 4000, Maclin @4200, We all have seen them sucking, but the talent is there, well maybe was there is the correct way to say that, just a matter of hitting on the right week…

    Moncrief 3900, Aiken 3000. I would def go with Moncrief over Aiken. I actually kinda like Moncrief as a pivot away from TY.

    Aldrich Robinson 3100, T Taylor 3400, I like one of these guys to have a good game if Goodwin is out. Robinson had 12 targets last game, not a number we should just ignore at 3100, Hoyer or not…

    Sticking with the injury theme…
    No Adams= Allison @ 4400, he had a huge game last year… why not again this year? Just saying it wouldn’t be the first time…

    No Carr, if No Crabtree either= Patterson 3100, I like this one, 2nd team QB playing with his 2nd team WR, smells like chemistry to me, purely guessing here, but I’m buying it… Roberts also should get a look if crab is out @ 3600

    No Golladay= TJ Jones 3000, "(player-popup #marvin-jones)Marvin Jones Jr":/players/marvin-jones-13592 4100. Golladay missed last Sunday, and seems nobody got extra targets, seems like a bad week to see who benefits most. I’d think TJ Jones would take his place,  but it could play out just like last Sunday too. Not loving it, but it’s a dart

    Agholor @ 3900, he had a huge week one, nothing to write about since. One hit wonder?

    Jets… Anderson @ 4000, Kearse 4500… I don’t know what to say. It’s the jets, it might be one of the best spots to throw one of these darts they are going to have this season. I mean, it is the Browns, but at the same time,  it’s also the JETS! Such an ugly game, so naturally it will end up being a shootout!!! lol

    Lee on JAX @ 4400, nothing to add

    BUF WRS. Zay Jones 3600, A Holmes 3000. Not much to add here either

    If y’all see any other value WR I missed please share. I left out plenty that didn’t feel worth mentioning. But what do I know? Hope y’all can spend a minute looking at the cheap guys, and share your thoughts. 

    Edit: As an after thought, and not the main slate, but Does Trubisky have a real chance at a big game, create a spark and all…? I don’t see it, but have never seen him play. Seems Glennon won the starting job or he wouldn’t have been the started the last 4 games, and this is just a frustrated coach. I wouldn’t wager on this, except maybe as a complete dart, on a small slate.

  • deactivated204643

    @gillio said...

    Do we like Lacy for $3400 this week ?

    From Rotoworld:

    With Chris being banged up, we’re so fortunate to have Thomas ready to jump back out there,” Carroll said. “We’re just lucky that we have a guy like that who’s ready to go and is healthy and all that.” With J.D. McKissic breaking out and C.J. Prosise likely back this week, this backfield looks like a headache.

  • gillio

    @Kloozy said...

    Aldrich Robinson 3100, T Taylor 3400, I like one of these guys to have a good game if Goodwin is out. Robinson had 12 targets last game, not a number we should just ignore at 3100, Hoyer or not…

    How bout that 25% catch rate on those 12 targets

  • gillio

    How is Duke not a free square this week? He’s kizers favorite target and gets like 10 targets a game and a couple carries. If a WR was 4900!and had 10+ targets a game most people would be plugging him in, add on stop he can get a rushing touchdown and yards he’s a must play imo

  • AVivier

    @gillio said...

    Do we like Lacy for $3400 this week ?

    How do we think he’s going to get to 15+?

    15-110-1 puts him at 20, if you think that’s reasonable, then he’s very playable. I’m undecided, but he’s not much of a big pass catcher or a big chunk yardage player. You’re really banking on volume and touchdowns.

  • AVivier

    @gillio said...

    How is Duke not a free square this week? He’s kizers favorite target and gets like 10 targets a game and a couple carries. If a WR was 4900!and had 10+ targets a game most people would be plugging him in, add on stop he can get a rushing touchdown and yards he’s a must play imo

    I like Duke (and recommended him 2 weeks ago when he broke out), and I’ll have a share, but he’s the same price as Ellington. Your points are fine, but they’re more true for Ellington for a team that will lilkely pass for more yardage, score more points and Ellington will pbly have more targets and rushing attempts than Duke.

  • gillio

    @AVivier said...

    I like Duke (and recommended him 2 weeks ago when he broke out), and I’ll have a share, but he’s the same price as Ellington. You’re points are fine, but there more true for Ellington for a team that will lilkely pass for more yardage, score more points and Ellington will pbly have more targets and rushing attempts than Duke.

    As of now I’m planningg on using both so I can fit in Dak, gurley, dez, and Jordy

  • Brian7479

    @33BeRad said...

    Bills def will be too chalky for me. Back to back road games. Back to back upset wins. They have looked great on def yet aren’t favored against Cincy? I get that it is in Cincy but would that game be a pick em on a neutral field? Would Buf only be favored by 3 at home against Cincy? I smell a trap.
    On the flip side, will they just get no respect all year no matter who they beat because of preseason thoughts?
    Even if Cincy beats them, Dalton can still turn it over. I just don’t like this game to be on it.

    The bills probably would be favored by only 3 in Buffalo. Reason being is line makers look at the fact that Cincinnati would’ve beat GB in Lambeau if it wasn’t for a missed FG. Gotta think about that when making a line. To be honest I don’t see this being anything but a hard 1 possession game.

  • Linsanity88

    @Kloozy said...

    So here’s the list, mostly WRs Reminder I’m not endorsing, just making a list of the players under 4500 that struck me as at the very least of having a shot at doing something…anything really.

    Main slate only, and not including any QBs:

    RB

    Elijah McGuire ($4300) – He turned 12 touches into 131 yards and a TD last week. Now the Jets get the Browns, in a game where it looks like the spread is moving in their favor (started at Browns -2.5 and is now a pick’em). If the Jets see him as part of their future plans, they could start to give him more touches and look to shop Forte / Powell.

    Wayne Gallman ($3900) – Got 13 touches last week and looks to have supplanted Paul Perkins as the Giants lead back. Keep an eye on Giants injury news as Perkins, Shane Vereen and Orleans Darkwa are all banged up.

    Thomas Rawls ($3700) / Eddie Lacy ($3400) – With Chris Carson done, one of these guys will take over the primary RB role for the Seahawks. Fat Eddie actually looked decent for the first time in a while against the Colts, averaging 4.7 YPC. The Rams are dead last in fantasy points allowed to the RB position, so if one of these guys looks to be in line for 15+ carries, he’ll be the value play that we need at RB this week. On the flipside, you don’t want to be chasing points with J.D. McKissic ($3200). Sure, he put up 19.5 DK points last week, but he only had 5 touches, and with Prosise likely back this week, he may not see the field even it he’s active.

    WR

    Cooper Kupp ($4500) – The best way to attack the Seahawks secondary is in the slot, where Kupp runs nearly all his routes. He had the one dud against the 49ers, but otherwise has seen 6-7 targets in each of the other 3 games and should see in that range against Seattle. He also is a bigger slot receiver at 6’2” and 205 pounds, which gives him a bit more TD equity.

    Jermaine Kearse ($4500) and Robby Anderson ($4000) – You already mentioned these two. Browns / Jets features two bad defenses and has the potential to turn into a shootout. The Browns are a funnel defense (6th in rush DVOA, 30th in pass DVOA), so if you want to pivot away from the likely chalk Powell, these two guys are a good spot to do so. Both have the same number of targets (24) so far this season. Anderson’s more likely to break a big play, whereas Kearse is more likely to catch a red zone TD. Not sure if I’ll go here since I’ll have a lot of ASJ this week, but if I do make some McCown stacks, I’ll likely include one of these two guys along with ASJ.

    Geronimo Allison ($4400) – As you noted, he’s only in play if Davante Adams is ruled out. With Ty Montgomery also banged up, we could see the Packers use a bit of Randall Cobb in the backfield with Allison and Jordy Nelson out wide in two WR sets. Also, if TyMont is out, the Packers may even go more pass heavy than usual against a suspect Cowboys secondary, so Allison has the potential to see 8-12 targets.

    Travis Benjamin ($4000) – We saw his upside against the Chiefs when he caught 5 of 8 targets for 105 yards and a TD. The Giants CBs are weak outside of Janoris Jenkins, who figures to shadow Keenan Allen. Everyone is going to want to roster Tyrell Williams after his big game last week, but Tyrell only saw one more target than Benjamin in that one.

    Ricardo Louis ($3700) – We already mentioned that the Jets-Browns game has shootout potential. Louis saw 9 targets last week after getting 6 looks against the Colts. Not a huge fan of this play, but worth at least a consideration. If I’m rostering a Brown this weekend, it’s most likely to be Duke Johnson.

    Torrey Smith ($3600) – You mentioned Agholor, but I like Smith way more. Pat Peterson will shadow Alshon, and Agholor runs most of his routes out of the slot, where he’ll be covered by the Honey Badger. Smith will see lots of coverage from Justin Bethel, who regularly gets roasted. Smith’s been able to get open deep a few times this year, but has had issues with drops. He’s got some nice upside in this matchup if he and Wentz can connect on a deep ball or two.

    Aldrick Robinson ($3100) – Lord Aldrick saw 12 targets last week. Yeah, he only caught three of them, but that’s as much on Hoyer as on Robinson. The Colts CBs are trash outside of Vontae Davis, who figures to be on Garcon. As long as Goodwin is out (and it’s a good bet he will be given his concussion history), Robinson should see heavy volume again this week and is one of my favorite value plays.

    I would stay far, far away from the Ravens passing game, as Flacco is clearly not 100% from his back injury. If Siemian and the Broncos receiving core couldn’t get anything going against the Raiders, I don’t see how the Ravens will do much in Oakland.

    I also have no interest in Trubisky, even though I think he has the tools to be a successful NFL QB. The Bears receiving core is a hot mess, and the Vikes D has struggled at times this year against the pass but did a nice job against Stafford last week.

  • Brian7479

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Melvin Gordon is $6000 on DK facing the 30th ranked rushing defense of the NY Giants. He’s had a couple bad weeks in a row so a lot of people will be off of him looking higher up the board to Bell, Gurley, etc.

    He has multi-TD upside and is a legit passing threat at a very reasonable price.

    The issue with Gordon is that he hasn’t been able to put a complete game together. When he gets rushing yards he doesn’t do anything receiving wise. And vice versa.

  • Cbed11

    Is Gordon healthy?

  • Brian7479

    @CleverGroom said...

    Jets are at Cleveland, not at home. I’m waiting to see how Cleveland’s injury reports look before I make any decisions there. Mostly I want ASJ, since the Browns are above-average DVP against WR and 2nd worst against TE.

    I’m more enthused about CMC if Jarrad Davis continues to sit out (fuck you, OBJ). I expect this game to go under and for the Panthers to lose. CMC’s a guy I wouldn’t mind having some shares of, but I’d be more likely to fade him 100% than ride him heavily.

    Cleveland hasn’t been good against WR1. 182 yards to Brown week 1, 153 yards and a td to TY Hilton and tds to both WR1 in week 2 and 4 I believe. Just a thought.

  • Kamais_Ookin

    @Brian7479 said...

    Cleveland hasn’t been good against WR1. 182 yards to Brown week 1, 153 yards and a td to TY Hilton and tds to both WR1 in week 2 and 4 I believe. Just a thought.

    Who’s WR1 for Jets?

  • Brian7479

    @Kamais_Ookin said...

    Who’s WR1 for Jets?

    Was thinking the same thing haha. If I had to pick I’d lean towards Kearse. But I’ll throw darts with both because atleast 1 should have a good game.

  • Brian7479

    @ Kloozy Strictly darts other than the ones already named:

    FD 5600 and below
    Lockett and Richardson for Seattle
    Rishard Matthews
    Jj nelson
    Kenny Britt has 18 targets the past 2 weeks
    Goodwin
    Benjamin
    Cole Beasley used to be decent and Terrence williams for Dallas
    Higgins
    Stills
    Wilson or Conley for KC if you’re including the night game
    Jaron Brown 29 targets past 3 weeks including 12 last week in which he caught 8 for over 100 yards

  • Brian7479

    My question for the full Sunday slate is what’s the list of RB’s that can really win a GPP this week? I don’t see many other than Gurley, Bell and maybe Zeke. I’m not loving Hunt or Shady this week and really don’t like anybody cheaper than Gurley other than owning a very low percentage of Ajayi hoping for good game script. Anybody like other guys capable of winning a GPP? Thoughts are appreciated.

  • Gogokennygo

    What do you think of Jaron BROWN, he’s been getting a ton of targets, even last week with everyone healthy

  • hautalak

    @sox9 said...

    Lockett

    Seattle kind of seems to be a WRBC but that’s based on the Colts game. Everybody is getting targets so I would say he is the most “safe”.

  • Dadeano860

    @gillio said...

    As of now I’m planningg on using both so I can fit in Dak, gurley, dez, and Jordy

    Didnt take long to get you off that Eli-OBJ combo!

  • hautalak

    @gillio said...

    I’m off Gurley this week, yeah he’s been phenomenal but look who he’s played.. pretty bad run defenses, this will be his first matchup against a great defense, perfect flop situation for him. I won’t be paying higher than Fournette this week. Fournette is in a fantastic spot, haven’t missed on him yet and I don’t think he disappoints this week either

    I’d like to agree with this but Gurley is hard to deny. Even if he doesn’t get his yardage the TD equity is always there. I will be fading him for the most part but will have at least 1 CYA share.

  • hautalak

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Can I trust Christian McCaffrey to deliver some solid value this weekend? At Detroit against the #1 pass defense vs RBs thru week 4 has me second guessing his passing game upside. I just don’t know who else I like around his $5700 price on DK.

    He’s going to be one of my highest exposed RBs. I am a Lions fan and love their defense but if Cam and the Panthers are going to win it has to be through him. I really like this secondary but I think the biggest weakness is still LB even with Davis. At 5.7K I think he is a great play. Also I do not think the Panthers are very good and I’m hoping they’re playing from behind.

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