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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 5th
    8:25 PM EST : New England ( -4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 54

    Sunday, October 8th
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 2 ) at Indianapolis ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at NY Giants ( -4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3 ) at Miami ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 39
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 1.5 ) at LA Rams ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, October 9th
    8:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • dbullsfan

    @CleverGroom said...

    I mean…I think there’s a very good chance that E.J. Manuel was buried by the incompetence of the Rex Ryan administration, et al.—just look at Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Chris Hogan thriving after their changes in scenery. The Ravens are still a good defense. Amari Cooper still gonna drop balls. The Ravens offense isn’t going to pour on pressure and prevent Black Jack from hiding a replacement-level starting QB (especially if Brandon Williams is still out, allowing Oakland to run).

    That game just feels like a couple of hobbled offenses facing off against flawed but effective defenses, which is to say, a game set to go under. I don’t want to play offenses in unders. Plenty of better DST plays on the board as well.

    normally id agree with this and they have certainly struggled this year but, starting with Flacco at $4700 on dk that Ravens passing game is way too cheap, add in the Ravens D at $2900 against Manuel with no running game and i love that spot for a blow up game. Maclin or Wallace should be able to do what they want against Amerson or whoever wants to guard them and if Flacco can hit a couple big plays 300+ yards is in play with limited target share. Playing the Ravens also allows for guys like Bell or Brown at the top and other higher priced guys.

    also Hunter Henry has to be chalk at TE this week right?

  • 33BeRad

    @dbullsfan said...

    also Hunter Henry has to be chalk at TE this week right?

    Or ASJ against the Browns

  • gillio

    @dbullsfan said...

    normally id agree with this and they have certainly struggled this year but, starting with Flacco at $4700 on dk that Ravens passing game is way too cheap, add in the Ravens D at $2900 against Manuel with no running game and i love that spot for a blow up game. Maclin or Wallace should be able to do what they want against Amerson or whoever wants to guard them and if Flacco can hit a couple big plays 300+ yards is in play with limited target share. Playing the Ravens also allows for guys like Bell or Brown at the top and other higher priced guys.

    also Hunter Henry has to be chalk at TE this week right?

    If you play Flacco be okay with the fact he might throw it 25 times and that’s a stretch, not an offense I want a piece of

  • miggs6876

    @gillio said...

    For the the record I love Cooper this week but I won’t touch Manuel with a 10 foot pole this week. You couldn’t pay me to play Manuel.

    Not sure about Cooper. Dead on with Manuel.

  • Cappy

    QB write up for the main slate …

    7k+ guys … For the second straight week, we have two guys in the top tier by themselves. With the way this season has been going, it’s tough to to fork over this top dollar at the QB position. Rodgers is over 8k and on the road. However, this has the potential to be a 42-35 game of fantasy goodness. Rodgers is just so safe and if he has a 32+ game in him, it might be coming right here. I would never pull off a full fade of Rodgers in this type of spot. Wilson will most likely be a full fade for me. I’m not paying this dollar for him on the road against a divisional opponent. The Rams have gave us some shootouts so far this season, but I think this one stays low. I think Wilson has a better shot at 14 than 28.

    6.5K+ guys …. Short little tier here of Dak, Wentz and Newton. I can definitely see playing Dak in what I said earlier looks like what could be a major shootout. He could push for 25-27 points in the perfect storm. Hits 300 yards with some rushing stats and a few TD’s. I want nothing to do with Wentz. I don’t see him hitting 25 against an Arizona defense that is better than given credit for. That 46 pass game against KC looks like an outlier. Similar to Wilson, I think he has a better chance at 14 than 25. Cam is a full fade for me going on the road against a tough Detroit defense who will slow the game down on offense. Would for sure bet against him having a shot at a 25 spot.

    6k+ guys … I’m not playing a mobile QB coming off a hamstring injury with Mariota. I love Big Ben this week. He’s coming back home against a defense that has not faced a real offense. This is a great spot after Tomlin went rock’em sock’em robots with Bell last week. People will be turned off by the 1st over there in the DVP spot. Stafford’s upside has been so capped in this new looks offense. The Lions play slow and the Panthers can play on D. Just so tough to see Stafford blowing up for 24+ unless Carolina gets ahead which is unlikely. Carr is out. Eli looks like a decent play on the surface having hit 4x value in each of the last two weeks, but I will be way off this week. We’re looking at him needing 24 to hit 4x this week. SD’s pass defense has looked very good this year against some decent offenses. I actually think NYG is able to control a game for once this season and I bet this game hits the under. Ingram and Bosa will destroy the Giants ends. Dalton …. against Buffalo? Nah.

    5.5k+ ….Palmer’s fantasy outlook hasn’t been bad over his last 10 or so games. I can understand why you would go here potentially playing catch up in Philly. It’s not a terrible play … just not one I will be using. Rivers at the Giants … I kind of already touched on this one. Under McADUMB, the Giants simply don’t play high scoring games. Their defense is too good and they don’t move the ball very well on offense. Rivers has value at this price, but this game is gross. I have no idea why Brissett is so expensive. I haven’t looked at the totals but this has to be the lowest one on the slate. He should be sub 5. Kizer? Same thing as Brissett. He shouldn’t be this high.

    Below 5.5K …. Goff has a very ugly match up here and his price reflects it. Goff has been very efficient this year, but hasn’t been the fantasy stud that it seems at times he has been. Better chance he scores single digits here than 20. You can’t play Cutler. I never really play Tyrod in GPPS. Manuel is a no thanks against Baltimore’s defense. Hoyer and McCown are no.

    Well …. I hate the QB’s this week. After I went nearly all in with the relatively cheap guys last week in Watson and Dalton … It might be a good week to find savings elsewhere. I’m on Rodgers, Dak and Ben for sure.

  • CleverGroom

    @dbullsfan said...

    also Hunter Henry has to be chalk at TE this week right?

    I’m gonna go ahead and fade Hunter Henry Chalk Weeks until sometime after they realize that he’s the most efficient weapon on that team, and he stops having 0 target weeks in good matchups. They aren’t losing these games because of Younghoe Koo, folks.

  • gillio

    Only doing two tournies this week, QB choice are: Rodgers, Dak, Manning. Hate this week so much

    Might just play the full slate and take Winston and Evans and stack that game

  • miggs6876

    @Cappy said...

    QB write up for the main slate …

    7k+ guys … For the second straight week, we have two guys in the top tier by themselves. With the way this season has been going, it’s tough to to fork over this top dollar at the QB position. Rodgers is over 8k and on the road. However, this has the potential to be a 42-35 game of fantasy goodness. Rodgers is just so safe and if he has a 32+ game in him, it might be coming right here. I would never pull off a full fade of Rodgers in this type of spot. Wilson will most likely be a full fade for me. I’m not paying this dollar for him on the road against a divisional opponent. The Rams have gave us some shootouts so far this season, but I think this one stays low. I think Wilson has a better shot at 14 than 28.

    6.5K+ guys …. Short little tier here of Dak, Wentz and Newton. I can definitely see playing Dak in what I said earlier looks like what could be a major shootout. He could push for 25-27 points in the perfect storm. Hits 300 yards with some rushing stats and a few TD’s. I want nothing to do with Wentz. I don’t see him hitting 25 against an Arizona defense that is better than given credit for. That 46 pass game against KC looks like an outlier. Similar to Wilson, I think he has a better chance at 14 than 25. Cam is a full fade for me going on the road against a tough Detroit defense who will slow the game down on offense. Would for sure bet against him having a shot at a 25 spot.

    6k+ guys … I’m not playing a mobile QB coming off a hamstring injury with Mariota. I love Big Ben this week. He’s coming back home against a defense that has not faced a real offense. This is a great spot after Tomlin went rock’em sock’em robots with Bell last week. People will be turned off by the 1st over there in the DVP spot. Stafford’s upside has been so capped in this new looks offense. The Lions play slow and the Panthers can play on D. Just so tough to see Stafford blowing up for 24+ unless Carolina gets ahead which is unlikely. Carr is out. Eli looks like a decent play on the surface having hit 4x value in each of the last two weeks, but I will be way off this week. We’re looking at him needing 24 to hit 4x this week. SD’s pass defense has looked very good this year against some decent offenses. I actually think NYG is able to control a game for once this season and I bet this game hits the under. Ingram and Bosa will destroy the Giants ends. Dalton …. against Buffalo? Nah.

    5.5k+ ….Palmer’s fantasy outlook hasn’t been bad over his last 10 or so games. I can understand why you would go here potentially playing catch up in Philly. It’s not a terrible play … just not one I will be using. Rivers at the Giants … I kind of already touched on this one. Under McADUMB, the Giants simply don’t play high scoring games. Their defense is too good and they don’t move the ball very well on offense. Rivers has value at this price, but this game is gross. I have no idea why Brissett is so expensive. I haven’t looked at the totals but this has to be the lowest one on the slate. He should be sub 5. Kizer? Same thing as Brissett. He shouldn’t be this high.

    Below 5.5K …. Goff has a very ugly match up here and his price reflects it. Goff has been very efficient this year, but hasn’t been the fantasy stud that it seems at times he has been. Better chance he scores single digits here than 20. You can’t play Cutler. I never really play Tyrod in GPPS. Manuel is a no thanks against Baltimore’s defense. Hoyer and McCown are no.

    Well …. I hate the QB’s this week. After I went nearly all in with the relatively cheap guys last week in Watson and Dalton … It might be a good week to find savings elsewhere. I’m on Rodgers, Dak and Ben for sure.

    Good input and well thought out.

  • gillio

    Why is nobody talking about Duke motherlovin’ Johnson? I’ll take 100% of him this week. Kizer’s favorite target and gets some rushing work and has two games in a row with a rushing touchdown

    Also TY Hilton blowup spot in T-minus 6 days

  • miggs6876

    @gillio said...

    Why is nobody talking about Duke motherlovin’ Johnson? I’ll take 100% of him this week. Kizer’s favorite target and gets some rushing work and has two games in a row with a rushing touchdown

    Someone already mentioned him on their short list.

  • gillio

    What do you guys think about a Palmer-John Brown stack?

  • Brian7479

    I’ll be over owned on Rodgers, TY Hilton for his price, Gurley even against Seattle and Witten. Tough part for me is deciding between Cutler and Ajayi. Everybody will be off of them after the past 2 weeks.

  • CleverGroom

    @gillio said...

    What do you guys think about a Palmer-John Brown stack?

    I think it assumes he’ll have more time to throw than I’d think. Especially if Fletcher Cox plays.

  • Cappy

    @gillio said...

    What do you guys think about a Palmer-John Brown stack?

    Because if you ever get the intuition to play Smokey, just donate the money to charity.

  • Cappy

    People are on Gurley this week, huh? My Seahawks bias might cost me again, but ill sit that one out.

  • CleverGroom

    @gillio said...

    Might just play the full slate and take Winston and Evans and stack that game

    The problem with playing the full slate so you can jam in that game is that everybody is already planning on doing that. Even idiots who play the full slate each week just so they can start 8 players in TNF are going to have a shot at 200+ point rosters this week.

    You’ll have some edge on the field if you play multiple entries and go overweight on all those plays—and that may require literally 100% ownership in some spots—or you’d get an edge if you fade the game and it…I dunno…gets annihilated by an alien invasion. Otherwise you’re just a guy doing what every other guy is doing. Winston/Evans doesn’t get you far when it’s 40% owned.

    This is a week to lean in. Double down on research. Find the edges that nobody else has on the Sunday slate. There’s still going to be plenty of casual money out there, fumbling around in the dark, unwilling to consider Todd Gurley against the Seahawks or Bills DST on the road. Skill matters more when the plays aren’t obvious.

  • GTRandy27

    Some tough decisions this week in terms of similar player salaries

  • CleverGroom

    @Cappy said...

    People are on Gurley this week, huh? My Seahawks bias might cost me again, but ill sit that one out.

    Todd Gurley is the Colossus. He should be the highest priced RB on any given slate, moving forward. I can see no basis besides game theory to fade him against the Seattle “5.0 Yards Per Carry and 3 Rushing TDs Allowed” Seahawks.

  • Brian7479

    @keephustlincuz said...

    You can make a sick lineup with D Parker, Hilton and Cobb as WR on FD.

  • IronMonkey415

    Hilton and Gore could be a popular play together.

  • Brian7479

    @ASitar said...

    Why does everyone always jump on the backup QB like they are the second coming of Aaron Rodgers. Good luck with stacking EJ. He has a better chance of getting sacked 4 times than throwing 2 TDs. They are a backup for a reason. Find value at WR.

    I might throw a dart with EJ but if I do it will be with Crabtree while everyone else is talking about cooper. As long as he’s healthy. If he is I can see EJ looking for a new safety blanket after cooper’s drops and coming up a foot and a half short on that jump ball even if it was a bad throw. Only reason this might be worthy of a dart for me is because BLAKE FREAKING BORTLES threw for 4 TDs against this Baltimore defense in week 3. Only worth a dart for me if Crabtree plays though.

  • Cappy

    @CleverGroom said...

    Todd Gurley is the Colossus. He should be the highest priced RB on any given slate, moving forward. I can see no basis besides game theory to fade him against the Seattle “5.0 Yards Per Carry and 3 Rushing TDs Allowed” Seahawks.

    It’s how I feel about it. Seattle will be the best defense that he’s faced thus far and I feel confident in that statement. I know how Seattle has struggled against the run, but I have faith in the talent on that defense, despite some of the recent injuries. I think Wagner and Wright should be able to somewhat contain Gurley in the pass game as well. We’ve seen the Rams score 35+ in 3 games already this season and I see this game being much calmer than some of the shootouts that they’ve played. He has 3 receiving touchdowns. He has 7 total TD’s. Not that he won’t have a solid game because with the amount of touches he’s getting, it’s hard to imagine him not having a safe floor. A line of 18 carries – 75 yards with 4 catches for 45 yards isn’t unimaginable. I’d say those are fair projections. That’s 15.5 points. Maybe he scores to knock on the door of 3x salary. I’m reserved at 8,000k. But I’m also reserved on the two RB’s priced ahead of him.

  • Cappy

    That game was in London and should not count. The New Orleans Saints shut out a team in London. We need to consider those games void of any logic or reason. Baltimore has a great defense. Harbaugh will get after Manuel early on. I’m not gonna tell someone not to play a sub 5k QB because at that price, any blind squirrel can hunt. Shoot … 150 yards and 2 TD’s with 40 rushing yards is nearly 4x value.

  • xpac21

    things just arent making any sense this year…for one i thought the bills pass D would suck after losing both gilmore and darby in offseason, but noooo

  • Brian7479

    Anybody know if Scandrick follows the top receiver or does he stay on one side? If he doesn’t follow it’s hard not to lock Jordy in. Before the season started I was ridiculously heavy on the idea of him and Rodgers having a ridiculously productive connection and I made the mistake of being low owned on him last week worrying about the lingering injury and him being more of a decoy. Anybody know if Scandrick floats or stays to one side? Jordy has 5 tds on the season leading the lead and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t have much regression the rest of the season.

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