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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 5th
    8:25 PM EST : New England ( -4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 54

    Sunday, October 8th
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 2 ) at Indianapolis ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at NY Giants ( -4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3 ) at Miami ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 39
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 1.5 ) at LA Rams ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, October 9th
    8:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • CleverGroom

    @Cappy said...

    It’s how I feel about it. Seattle will be the best defense that he’s faced thus far and I feel confident in that statement. I know how Seattle has struggled against the run, but I have faith in the talent on that defense, despite some of the recent injuries. I think Wagner and Wright should be able to somewhat contain Gurley in the pass game as well. We’ve seen the Rams score 35+ in 3 games already this season and I see this game being much calmer than some of the shootouts that they’ve played. He has 3 receiving touchdowns. He has 7 total TD’s. Not that he won’t have a solid game because with the amount of touches he’s getting, it’s hard to imagine him not having a safe floor. A line of 18 carries – 75 yards with 4 catches for 45 yards isn’t unimaginable. I’d say those are fair projections. That’s 15.5 points. Maybe he scores to knock on the door of 3x salary. I’m reserved at 8,000k. But I’m also reserved on the two RB’s priced ahead of him.

    You’ve got a lot more faith in the Seahawks than this Seattle homer does. They’re going to lose this game, just like they’ve lost the last three times they’ve visited the Rams. Lord knows this is the best Rams team and the worst Seattle defense we’ve seen over that time.

    Even if the Hawks pull this one out, it’ll be a grueling shootout. I like the over on this game a lot. If it goes under, it’ll be because the Rams took a lead and never looked back (Seattle becomes less and less able to play ball control offense with every RB and OL injury). Either scenario works for the Colossus.

    I’ll grant you that Bobby’s been playing out of his goddamn mind. The passing game is the only area where I’d tick Gurley down a tad for the matchup, but even then, I trust Sean McBae to scheme Gurley open. Tavon Austin has quietly been earning every penny of his contract running decoy sweeps and doing just enough to maintain the respect of the defense.

    Gurley’s floor is especially difficult to fade in cash. Your 15.5 DKFP line without a TD is fair, so far as it goes. After all, TDs are binary—you get one or you don’t; can’t score half a TD—but we’re still talking about a guy who has a 44% RZ market share on the #1 offense in the league. The Rams have scored an average of 14 points per game above a league-average scoring offense this year. Gurley’s getting 5 RZ tries per game and converting 30% into TDs (plus his 53-yard TD catch last Sunday). The stats the Rams offense is putting up almost beggar belief, and nothing the Seahawks defense has showed thus far points towards regression on Sunday.

    Again, game theory arguments are fine. If you think you can get better returns by fading an $8,000 player, that’s one thing. We just have to be clear that Todd Gurley is the new David Johnson. $8,000 is low for the workload, the talent, and the general offensive potency that you’re buying.

  • Johnnyplayer

    Ravens

  • Brian7479

    Second guessing my play at TE. Witten had 22 targets in the first 2 weeks with 17 receptions, 156 yards and 2 tds. Past 2 weeks 6 targets with 2 receptions, 12 yards and tds. He should get back towards the first 2 weeks no? GB has been good against the TE but I loved wittens usage the first 2 weeks. Thoughts?

  • CleverGroom

    @Brian7479 said...

    Second guessing my play at TE. Witten had 22 targets in the first 2 weeks with 17 receptions, 156 yards and 2 tds. Past 2 weeks 6 targets with 2 receptions, 12 yards and tds. He should get back towards the first 2 weeks no? GB has been good against the TE but I loved wittens usage the first 2 weeks. Thoughts?

    I think it’s rare for a player who was old enough to vote in 2000 to average 11 targets per game over an entire season. That was situational, thanks to the relative vulnerability of those defenses to the TE. Since then, he’s played two tough TE defenses and his usage has fallen as a consequence.

    The Packers are currently the 2nd TE defense in the league, allowing just 5.7 DKFP to the position per game. We can expect that to rise, but I don’t especially like Witt here. There’s better options on the slate. Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jesse James stand out in particular.

  • Brian7479

    Higher floor and ceiling Duke Johnson or McCaffrey?

  • Brian7479

    @CleverGroom said...

    I think it’s rare for a player who was old enough to vote in 2000 to average 11 targets per game over an entire season. That was situational, thanks to the relative vulnerability of those defenses to the TE. Since then, he’s played two tough TE defenses and his usage has fallen as a consequence.

    The Packers are currently the 2nd TE defense in the league, allowing just 5.7 DKFP to the position per game. We can expect that to rise, but I don’t especially like Witt here. There’s better options on the slate. Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jesse James stand out in particular.

    Thanks CG. I actually changed it to ASJ before I saw your response. I am not a fan of him but his matchups to good to pass up at the price. But I like James but Engram averaging 7.5 targets per game is tempting too. Especially with a lot of the defense focus being on OBJ. Thanks for your input!

  • CleverGroom

    @Brian7479 said...

    Thanks CG. I actually changed it to ASJ before I saw your response. I am not a fan of him but his matchups to good to pass up at the price. But I like James but Engram averaging 7.5 targets per game is tempting too. Especially with a lot of the defense focus being on OBJ. Thanks for your input!

    I like the under in that LAC at NYG game. My feeling is that the Giants lose a gruesome game where both defensive fronts feature heavily. Gonna be a real tough day for Eli against Bosa and Ingram.

    Of course, nobody will be any less surprised than me if it’s 14-10 Chargers at the 2 minute warning and they still manage to lose.

  • Brian7479

    @CleverGroom said...

    I like the under in that LAC at NYG game. My feeling is that the Giants lose a gruesome game where both defensive fronts feature heavily. Gonna be a real tough day for Eli against Bosa and Ingram.

    Of course, nobody will be any less surprised than me if it’s 14-10 Chargers at the 2 minute warning and they still manage to lose.

    True but the chargers are giving up almost 24 points a game. Hard to tell. The giants offensive line is bad but all of a sudden haven’t given up any sacks the past 2 games miraculously.

  • deactivated204643

    Martellus at TE this week. It’s the responsible thing to do.

  • Quadhole

    @mike42 said...

    IDk, I was him last week but the Jax game seemed more like an out of character jetlag letdown spot than a trend for Jax’s rund D. He also could only get less than 39 touches, his price jumped and AB is tossing coolers on the sidelines.

    Numerous studies have shown that when star WR’s toss coolers on the sideline there is a substantial and statistically significant increase in tgts the following week . Think it’s an AB week in a bad matchup that will keep people away even though he does well in bad matchups.

    Awesome Post – the 75 yard Powell run should have been brought back in my opinion..Thought he was tripped up, why did another hand need to be on him. And the 69 McGuire… Watching replays, Jacksonville looks athletic, but not smart…
    Seem whatever happens the week before is being touted the following week, of course and good players perform each week… Love the AB angle… and the cooler gets him at least 5 more touches.

  • rsrunningrebels

    @Supanice said...

    Which chargers TE goes 4x?

    Great question. I’m leaning toward Gates more likely hitting 4 x value on DK compared to Henry. Gates is $3300 while Henry is $3900. Both see about the same amount of snaps/volume/targets. NYGs pathetic against TE probably means Gates should continue to see first shot at snaps/targets. I think you may see LACs hand the reigns over to Henry after this NYG game is over. Right now I have my eyes on two other TEs not named Gates, Henry, or ASJ. I’m not saying I won’t play the aforementioned but….. What do you think about Rudolph or Miller in GPPs?

  • rsrunningrebels

    @Supanice said...

    Which chargers TE goes 4x?

    Great question. I’m leaning toward Gates more likely hitting 4 x value on DK compared to Henry. Gates is $3300 while Henry is $3900. Both see about the same amount of snaps/volume/targets. NYGs pathetic against TE probably means Gates should continue to see first shot at snaps/targets. I think you may see LACs hand the reigns over to Henry after this NYG game is over. Right now I have my eyes on two other TEs not named Gates, Henry, or ASJ. I’m not saying I won’t play the aforementioned but….. What do you think about Rudolph or Miller in GPPs?

  • Quadhole

    Wondering if Jets Start shopping a RB. Soon to have 3 good ones… I would think a B.Powell to Minn. could get a nice return… Once Forte is back they are sitting in the driver seat and why wait for an injury. They won’t be in the payoffs and could use Draft Picks…

  • rsrunningrebels

    @gillio said...

    Why is nobody talking about Duke motherlovin’ Johnson? I’ll take 100% of him this week. Kizer’s favorite target and gets some rushing work and has two games in a row with a rushing touchdown

    Also TY Hilton blowup spot in T-minus 6 days

    I wouldn’t talk you off of Duke but I kind of like Crowell to finally have a good DFS day and his price offers value too. If the game flow goes like I expect it to be and it remains relatively close throughout the first half, I think the Browns have a decent chance of winning this game. Crowell has a decent chance of hitting 100 yards rushing. One final note regarding this game: No Powell for me this week.

  • rsrunningrebels

    @gillio said...

    What do you guys think about a Palmer-John Brown stack?

    I think this would be a lethal combination!

    Lethal to any chance of you winning $ this week if you play this stack.

    IMO, Eagles D is gonna pulverize poor Palmer. He probably gets injured before halftime.

  • Mikeallin

    Thoughts on Jared Cook this week vs ASJ. EJ was throwng his way often

  • Quadhole

    Gallman ?

  • BIF

    @NarrowJ said...

    Sadly, the 40% conversion rate on targets is about the norm for him nowadays. In 2015 he caught 31 of 74 targets and last year (a bit better) caught 50 of 97 targets. So far this year, he’s 16/40, so right at that 40%. I may use him in a couple, but I’ll be underweight for sure. What do we think his ownership will be? I think that game will be widely targeted since it is only one of two games with a total over 50, but will end up disappointing many (looking to me like a 20-17 type of game).

    20-17 is a bold call with two banged up defenses and two of the better most consistent offenses in the league. The offenses are very different but both are efficient in keeping the chains moving.

  • Mikeallin

    @CleverGroom said...

    I think it assumes he’ll have more time to throw than I’d think. Especially if Fletcher Cox plays.

    Palmer-Jaron Brown is probably better play

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    Do any of you guys focus on the Pickem? Just curious if its cool to discuss strategy for it here or should I start another thread? That is what I have been focusing on this season. I find it easier because there is no salary cap. (I dont take shots on guys like MIXON…I will never forgive myself for that last week LOL)

    Anyways I would like to get something going with Pickem fans but do not want to disrupt the main thread. Thanks.

  • tkofantasy

    Fanduel Cash: Hey guys, Mainly a FD Cash guys….. My Rb’s won me 95% of my games last week…. This week I think I need to Play L Bell and Gurly for Cash. Then looking at Watson for my Hammer, then that leave me Mia for D, a cheap TE then 3 WR’s around 7.7k- 6k… Who are your fav? These are rated in order of my Fav
    1. Hopkins
    2. Funchess
    3. Cobb
    4. Parker
    5. Allen
    6. Fitz
    7. T Hill
    8. Garcon
    9.K Ben
    10.Cooper

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Brian7479 said...

    Higher floor and ceiling Duke Johnson or McCaffrey?

    I really like Duke this week

  • jeffreybuckets

    @tkofantasy said...

    4. Parker
    5. Allen
    6. Fitz

    I like these

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Mikeallin said...

    Thoughts on Jared Cook this week vs ASJ. EJ was throwng his way often

    I would nor roster any raiders until Carr is back

  • monarch

    I think the Raiders will play better this week. Something is going on in that locker room, my guess is that they rally around EJ

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