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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 5th
    8:25 PM EST : New England ( -4.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 4.5 ) —- T: 54

    Sunday, October 8th
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 2 ) at Indianapolis ( -2 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : LA Chargers ( 4.5 ) at NY Giants ( -4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3 ) at Miami ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 3 ) at Cincinnati ( -3 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 8.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -8.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 6 ) at Philadelphia ( -6 ) —- T: 45
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 2 ) at Cleveland ( -2 ) —- T: 39
    4:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 1.5 ) at LA Rams ( -1.5 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 0 ) at Oakland ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 2.5 ) at Dallas ( -2.5 ) —- T: 52.5
    8:30 PM EST : Kansas City ( -1.5 ) at Houston ( 1.5 ) —- T: —

    Monday, October 9th
    8:30 PM EST : Minnesota ( -3.5 ) at Chicago ( 3.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mike42

    @33BeRad said...

    Or ASJ against the Browns

    I know ERTZ is not going to be chalk but he’s got a great setup that most are going to look past. With Pat peterson on Alshon and Arz being strong against the run, Ertz should see 10 plus tgts and I think he could be the main tgt in the red zone by default with ALShon being blanketed. Nobody is going to spend up at TE, could be an interesting pivot for a couple LU’s, even a Wentz/Ertz stack isn’t a bad idea. If Wentz and Arz stay true to life, Wentz should throw for 2-3 TD’s/300 yds and there is a good chance one of those TD’s lands in Ertz’s hands along with a few extra tgts that should be funneled in his direction.

    The danger is that this game blows out with Arz playing 5 qtrs before flying east for an early start and this turns into a Blount game. The more I think about it, idk, this is starting to feel like a Blount week.

  • tkofantasy

    your not afraid that Fitz needed OT TD to make value last week, too many weapons now?

  • monarch

    BUF has some injuries…keep an eye on EJ Gaines this week

  • clrockny24

    ^^ there is a thread for pickem’ that I posted it yesterday. It looks a lot different than it did week 1. I believe there were 8 players on each tier in the same position. Now each tier has like 3-10 players at all different positions.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Quadhole said...

    Awesome Post – the 75 yard Powell run should have been brought back in my opinion..Thought he was tripped up, why did another hand need to be on him. And the 69 McGuire… Watching replays, Jacksonville looks athletic, but not smart…
    Seem whatever happens the week before is being touted the following week, of course and good players perform each week… Love the AB angle… and the cooler gets him at least 5 more touches.

    I would like to give some input as a big Steelers fan.. Ben is not throwing the ball well at all, he also looks extremely slow..more slow than usual…Bell looks in game shape and they are going to ride this train. If your looking for a longshot use this Schuster kid..when Ben gets in trouble he looks to dump to him or Bell and this kid can play.

    AB is going to get his but ill be honest..Ben doesnt give a shit about what AB wants. If Pitt is going to play another slow control the clock game…Bell is money…they were milking the clock in Baltimore in the 3rd quarter.

    I would put Schuster ahead of Bryant in games like this that are going to be grind outs..i only roster Bryant if i think Pitt will be playing from behind.

  • jeffreybuckets

    @tkofantasy said...

    your not afraid that Fitz needed OT TD to make value last week, too many weapons now?

    Well….it was an ugly game for ARIZ on Sunday. Chances are they are going to be down and throwing; Fitz running the short routes should be in line for 10+ targets.

  • mike42

    @rsrunningrebels said...

    I wouldn’t talk you off of Duke but I kind of like Crowell to finally have a good DFS day and his price offers value too. If the game flow goes like I expect it to be and it remains relatively close throughout the first half, I think the Browns have a decent chance of winning this game. Crowell has a decent chance of hitting 100 yards rushing. One final note regarding this game: No Powell for me this week.

    I like Crowell for the same reason I like Ajayi this week. Think both coaches should be in positive game script, have 2 good o-lines, 2 talented RB’s, playing 2 bad defenses and most importantly, have two mistake prone QB’s. Give these coaches a lead and I think Agayi/Crowell combine for 50 plus touches this week.

    I think you will be able to look back at the end of the year and realize you should have picked on the Jets D on the road pretty much every game. Think if last weeks game was @ JAX under normal circumstances Fournette would have scored 30 plus DK points. They are so short on talent that they need home field to put up a fight and after winning 2 games at home, I think this young team void of talent suffers a big sized letdown here.

  • steelcitydozer

    TE against Brown’s Insta lock so far . Maybe TE in flex on DK might take down a gpp this week

  • mike42

    @jeffreybuckets said...

    I like these

    I think Dez see’s the 12-15 tgts this week but this time it’s VS a really bad secondary instead of against a really good or great CB. If you took the average rating of the CB’s he’s played against and compared it the average rating of the CB’s he will be playing against this week, it’s literally night and day. You are getting a target monster vs a bad secondary in a game with the highest total on a team with NO viable secondary receiving options who has a pretty good QB tossing him the rock for $6500. I like him better than any GB receivers and possibly more than any WR on the slate.

  • mathewsmarner

    miami and seattle, two teams you should focus on!

  • rsrunningrebels

    @mike42 said...

    I like Crowell for the same reason I like Ajayi this week. Think both coaches should be in positive game script, have 2 good o-lines, 2 talented RB’s, playing 2 bad defenses and most importantly, have two mistake prone QB’s. Give these coaches a lead and I think Agayi/Crowell combine for 50 plus touches this week.

    Absolutely like the Ajayi call and your analysis regarding positive game script. The RB combo Ajayi/Crowell has the potential for a huge ceiling for all the reasons you mention. More importantly, one only needs to pay $11,300 for this combo on DK. Imagine what you can do with the salary cap savings!

  • rsrunningrebels

    @mike42 said...

    I think Dez see’s the 12-15 tgts this week but this time it’s VS a really bad secondary instead of against a really good or great CB. If you took the average rating of the CB’s he’s played against and compared it the average rating of the CB’s he will be playing against this week, it’s literally night and day. You are getting a target monster vs a bad secondary in a game with the highest total on a team with NO viable secondary receiving options who has a pretty good QB tossing him the rock for $6500. I like him better than any GB receivers and possibly more than any WR on the slate.

    Another good analysis! I agree with everything you point out about Bryant, the matchup, the value. Yet, I do have interest in two GB WRs. However, they both cost more than Bryant. Bryant is a great value play!

  • miggs6876

    @CleverGroom said...

    You’ve got a lot more faith in the Seahawks than this Seattle homer does. They’re going to lose this game, just like they’ve lost the last three times they’ve visited the Rams. Lord knows this is the best Rams team and the worst Seattle defense we’ve seen over that time.

    Even if the Hawks pull this one out, it’ll be a grueling shootout. I like the over on this game a lot. If it goes under, it’ll be because the Rams took a lead and never looked back (Seattle becomes less and less able to play ball control offense with every RB and OL injury). Either scenario works for the Colossus.

    I’ll grant you that Bobby’s been playing out of his goddamn mind. The passing game is the only area where I’d tick Gurley down a tad for the matchup, but even then, I trust Sean McBae to scheme Gurley open. Tavon Austin has quietly been earning every penny of his contract running decoy sweeps and doing just enough to maintain the respect of the defense.

    Gurley’s floor is especially difficult to fade in cash. Your 15.5 DKFP line without a TD is fair, so far as it goes. After all, TDs are binary—you get one or you don’t; can’t score half a TD—but we’re still talking about a guy who has a 44% RZ market share on the #1 offense in the league. The Rams have scored an average of 14 points per game above a league-average scoring offense this year. Gurley’s getting 5 RZ tries per game and converting 30% into TDs (plus his 53-yard TD catch last Sunday). The stats the Rams offense is putting up almost beggar belief, and nothing the Seahawks defense has showed thus far points towards regression on Sunday.

    Again, game theory arguments are fine. If you think you can get better returns by fading an $8,000 player, that’s one thing. We just have to be clear that Todd Gurley is the new David Johnson. $8,000 is low for the workload, the talent, and the general offensive potency that you’re buying.

    Well said. Not long ago people were murdering Gurley especially after the Colts game. I went on to defend Gurley saying he was gonna be a beast. Yes, I am patting myself on the back. Don’t kill me for that.

  • Ndepompei

    @rsrunningrebels said...

    Another good analysis! I agree with everything you point out about Bryant, the matchup, the value. Yet, I do have interest in two GB WRs. However, they both cost more than Bryant. Bryant is a great value play!

    No love for Geronimo Allison? Think he could be a great play with Adams hurt

  • rsrunningrebels

    @steelcitydozer said...

    TE against Brown’s Insta lock so far . Maybe TE in flex on DK might take down a gpp this week

    I think Kroft last week against the Browns should have had more ownership and helped take down a GPP last week. He had way more value than ASJ has this week and ASJ is gonna be super chalk heavy. Why not take a shot on Kyle Rudolph or Zach Miller if playing the Thurs-Mon slate? The injury to D Cook could change Rudolph’s role in the offense. If Bradford returns, they both have a good history against CHI last season too. Zach Miller gets another QB throwing to him this week. Howard and Miller did pretty good against the Vikings last year. Miller has close to the same value that Kroft did last week at sub $3000 even though his matchup is way more difficult. I’m just really curious to see how both MINN/CHI use their TEs considering the injuries and changes at positions that may dictate a different direction to O strategy approach.

  • miggs6876

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    I would nor roster any raiders until Carr is back

    Smart man. Are you saying no EJ?

  • rsrunningrebels

    @Ndepompei said...

    No love for Geronimo Allison? Think he could be a great play with Adams hurt

    I have some interest in Geronimo if Adams is out. I think it’s very possible that he can get 3 x value at $4400 on DK. Wish we could still get him for sub $4000.

  • miggs6876

    I’m not playing Crowell. If he goes off so be it. Every week people come on here and make the case for him. He hasn’t even sniffed 10 fd points. Plus, Duke seems to be getting a bigger role. Maybe, I just don’t know football.

  • mike42

    @rsrunningrebels said...

    Yet, I do have interest in two GB WRs. However, they both cost more than Bryant. Bryant is a great value play!

    I have interest in GB Wr’s too. Cobb is my fav but Jordy always seems to make you pay for not paying up. Allison got a ceiling higher than his price and Bennet seems to be catching on. But that’s why I like Dez more, he’s probably getting more tgts than any GB receiver, more red zone looks and the only real person he might have to share with is ZEKE and I’m less concerned about that because this is such a cupcake matchup for AR that I think DAL has to go the air in this game to keep up. Also, IDk but Dallas running game is not the same this year and I trust GB’s rushing D more than their passing D.

    I don’t play cash but if I did I would stack this game. Just a ton of PPR points on GB side and ton of market share for Dez in what should be a very high scoring game. If the passing attacks don’t do much, you are screwed but what are the odds of that? Ty being out funnels targets to the rest and reduces the likelihood of a rushing TD, DAL’s weak pass D with LEE coming back (better rush D) makes a pass heavy approach almost a certainty, Dez should see a huge amount of tgts (great floor) vs a D that has given up more monster games to WR 1’s than any team I can think of and AR should eat and has a rock solid floor. You basically reduce downside variance to DAL being able to run effectively, control tempo and keep AR on the sideline in a relatively low scoring affair. Could happen but I’m of the belief that this dallas team is more Dak and less ZEKE due to the downgrade of the O-line play and poor secondary and it’s been playing out that way, doubt it changes this week against AR.

  • kps3205s

    @33BeRad said...

    The schedule makers really haven’t done the Jags any favors. They go to London, then to Jets and now at Pitt. 3 weeks of traveling in a row, I wonder if they stayed up near New York. Has anyone heard anything?

    They are back in Jax as a bunch of the players are participating in Allen Robinson charity fundraiser last night and today.

    The NFL gave the Jags the option for the week off after London but the Jags opted to pass on it that early in the season. They decided week 8 for the bye due to the Florida vs Georgia game is on that Saturday at Everbank Stadium where they play so after Indy on the road they are technically home for 3 weeks, bye + 2 home games before going to Cleveland week 11.

  • jimmyd1507

    @monarch said...

    I think the Raiders will play better this week. Something is going on in that locker room, my guess is that they rally around EJ

    Cause he’s black?

  • Brenmike922

    @CleverGroom said...

    Todd Gurley is the Colossus. He should be the highest priced RB on any given slate, moving forward. I can see no basis besides game theory to fade him against the Seattle “5.0 Yards Per Carry and 3 Rushing TDs Allowed” Seahawks.

    Seattle D plays much better on artificial turf than natural grass. I’m on Gurley for sure.
    Seahawks 2016 regular season splits by field types: Artificial turf 9-2 W/L record, +103 point differential; natural grass 1-3-1 W/L record, -41 point differential. 2017 record so far, 0-2 on natural grass. Their offense suffers and D seems to be a bit slower

  • Simplebitz

    Anyone else still giddy from that KC Def touchdown last night???

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @miggs6876 said...

    I’m not playing Crowell. If he goes off so be it. Every week people come on here and make the case for him. He hasn’t even sniffed 10 fd points. Plus, Duke seems to be getting a bigger role. Maybe, I just don’t know football.

    Agreed I really like DJ this week. No Crowell ever for me.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @Simplebitz said...

    Anyone else still giddy from that KC Def touchdown last night???

    Loved it!

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