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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/4
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 10.5 ) at New England ( -10.5 ) —- T: 53

    Sunday, 10/7
    1:00 PM EST : NY Giants ( 7 ) at Carolina ( -7 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 5.5 ) at Cincinnati ( -5.5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -1 ) at Detroit ( 1 ) —- T: 51
    1:00 PM EST : Tennessee ( -3.5 ) at Buffalo ( 3.5 ) —- T: 39
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at Cleveland ( 2.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) at Kansas City ( -3.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 1 ) at NY Jets ( -1 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3.5 ) at Pittsburgh ( -3.5 ) —- T: 56
    4:05 PM EST : Oakland ( 6.5 ) at LA Chargers ( -6.5 ) —- T: 52
    4:25 PM EST : Arizona ( 4.5 ) at San Francisco ( -4.5 ) —- T: 41
    4:25 PM EST : Minnesota ( 3 ) at Philadelphia ( -3 ) —- T: 44.5
    4:25 PM EST : LA Rams ( -7 ) at Seattle ( 7 ) —- T: 49
    8:20 PM EST : Dallas ( 3 ) at Houston ( -3 ) —- T: 45

    Monday, 10/8
    8:15 PM EST : Washington ( 7 ) at New Orleans ( -7 ) —- T: 52

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • lukemiller42

    I’m locking in Gordon and gurley. I’m taking Wilson and doug because their price is even lower than Carr + cooper which I thought would be the best value of the year for a mvp calibur qb stack. From there it’s a guessing game on receiver and tight end

  • Smallchimp

    Patty’s back on the main slate!

  • thedkexperience

    @lukemiller42 said...

    I’m locking in Gordon and gurley. I’m taking Wilson and doug because their price is even lower than Carr + cooper which I thought would be the best value of the year for a mvp calibur qb stack. From there it’s a guessing game on receiver and tight end

    I kept running into MG3 and CMC when I was looking last night. Gurley and Saquan looked good as well.

    It also looks like it will be yet another week where 90% of the WRs I use are under 7k. A lot of good players in the 6000s. I’m not touching Ridley outdoors but I see no reason why we can’t hop aboard the good ship Tyler Boyd yet again. Sheppard as well.

  • Falconsfan101

    Recap of my plays for week 4:

    - Hit on my trio of Kamara, Zeke, and Gio. Had that running in a bunch of LUs – Missed on Mike Williams, Calaway, and Baker. If not for Baker’s TOs, I would be up quite a bit.

    This the 4th week straight I’ve broke even. Frustrating in that I have a bunch of great lineups ruined by one play. Oh well….Week 5 time.

    First look…

    Falcons/Steelers stack. Gurley/Gordon smash spots. Cousins/Diggs/Theil stack against a funnel D. GB/DET sneaky shootout game. WR2/3 against Miami trend, so continue on the Boyd train.

  • parrothead112

    Do we go ahead and lightly pencil in T.J Yeldon at home against KC?

  • lineupofpeace

    Some early thoughts:

    I like Bortles vs KC if Fournette sits which is very likely at the cheap end for QBs.

    Some shadow situations which gives me pause on receivers I would otherwise like – Jeffrey vs Rhodes, Corey Davis vs White.

    Going back to the Boyd well again – Eifert is now gone which narrows the target tree a little and Howard should shadow AJ Green.

    Thinking about it more, Taywan Taylor becomes very interesting if Davis draws the shadow from White. Snaps and targets both trending up with Matthews/Delanie gone and Mariota is getting healthier.

  • thedkexperience

    At 1 AM I had a LU build with multiple Jaguars. I decided it was time for bed.

    Bortles/Westbrook/Cole/Yeldon should be popular but I have a feeling none (aside from Yeldon) will have more than 10% ownership. I also predict that 70 pages from now we on this board will fool ourselves into thinking it’s 30 to 40% chalk.

  • hodge50

    Aaron Jones at $4300 seems like an easy play. Pick on the Lions run D some more.

  • thedkexperience

    @hodge50 said...

    Aaron Jones at $4300 seems like an easy play. Pick on the Lions run D some more.

    I barely saw the GB game. Did they show any commitment to the run? I feel like every time I take a GB runner they get 6 carries.

  • Falconsfan101

    @thedkexperience said...

    I barely saw the GB game. Did they show any commitment to the run? I feel like every time I take a GB runner they get 6 carries.

    GB RB is definitely RBBC…split carries. You’d have to be comfortable playing someone who probably isn’t going to get more than 10 carries. 10 carries may be all he needs to reach value however. Especially at that price. Think it definitely caps his ceiling though.

  • bigez952

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    GB RB is definitely RBBC…split carries. You’d have to be comfortable playing someone who probably isn’t going to get more than 10 carries. 10 carries may be all he needs to reach value however. Especially at that price. Think it definitely caps his ceiling though.

    Jones also has almost no involvement in the passing game as he is terrible at run blocking. So he has a near 0 point floor and would be extremely dependent on breaking a long TD in order to hit value with a limited ceiling as he will never get more than 10-15 touches max in games they are up by a lot. In a shootout Williams and Montgomery will see more work.

    Edit : Jones is terrible at pass blocking not run blocking lol. Which is why he isn’t involved in the pass game much at all.

  • parrothead112

    Dalton again in cash, with Miami coming to town?

  • hodge50

    @thedkexperience said...

    I barely saw the GB game. Did they show any commitment to the run? I feel like every time I take a GB runner they get 6 carries.

    I was basing this primarily on the fact that the Lions are dead last in the league against the run. They are however much better against the pass, ranking second. I did it watch the GB game and have only looked at the stats. They ran a committee approach looking at the stats with Jones being the most effective.

  • thedkexperience

    @bigez952 said...

    Jones also has almost no involvement in the passing game as he is terrible at run blocking. So he has a near 0 point floor and would be extremely dependent on breaking a long TD in order to hit value with a limited ceiling as he will never get more than 10-15 touches max in games they are up by a lot. In a shootout Williams and Montgomery will see more work.

    Thanks for the info fellas. Those 0 point floor RBs are exactly why I wave the pay up at RB banner every week. Sure, a cheap guy can go off but there are 6 or 8 NFL backs that will get 80% of the touches and play every down where they are not tired.

    If I had to summarize my NFL season strategy to date it would be good home QB, good home defense, expensive RBs that are favored, inexpensive young WRs I expect to become expensive older WRs, and a pure dart at TE in a high over under home game.

    I’ve made a profit each week of roughly $100, $20, $100 and $700 (!) so I think I’m doing pretty good on my $100 initial deposit. I’m 67 to 100% GPPs over that time for reference.

  • ASitar

    This is the last week Doug Baldwin will be “cheap”.

  • markymark13

    It’s going to be hard not to just stack the Atl-Pit game. Maybe Matt Ryan will melt outdoors like Brees did

  • thedkexperience

    @markymark13 said...

    It’s going to be hard not to just stack the Atl-Pit game. Maybe Matt Ryan will melt outdoors like Brees did

    Never play Matty Air Conditioning outside.

  • Falconsfan101

    @thedkexperience said...

    Never play Matty Air Conditioning outside.

    I second this…:(

  • Supanice

    Draftkings just gave me $1 for being a platinum player in September. $1. It’s actually insulting.

  • miggs6876

    @thedkexperience said...

    I kept running into MG3 and CMC when I was looking last night. Gurley and Saquan looked good as well.

    It also looks like it will be yet another week where 90% of the WRs I use are under 7k. A lot of good players in the 6000s. I’m not touching Ridley outdoors but I see no reason why we can’t hop aboard the good ship Tyler Boyd yet again. Sheppard as well.

    I agree. Quick glance looks like a pay up at RB and value for WR.

  • lineupofpeace

    @Falconsfan101 said...

    I second this…:(

    Per ProFootballReference, Ryan has thrown 137 TDs at home vs 133 on the road. YPG is actually slightly higher at 267 on the road vs 264 at home. He’s not as efficient on the road (lower completion percentage and YPA) but likely offset by their defense not playing as well on the road leading to more pass attempts.

    Compare that to Ben who has 193 TDs at home vs 144 on the road.

    I think Ryan is fine this week, with the Steelers pass defense being atrocious and Ben being far better at home.

  • thedkexperience

    @lineupofpeace said...

    Per ProFootballReference, Ryan has thrown 137 TDs at home vs 133 on the road. YPG is actually slightly higher at 267 on the road vs 264 at home. He’s not as efficient on the road (lower completion percentage and YPA) but likely offset by their defense not playing as well on the road leading to more pass attempts.

    Compare that to Ben who has 193 TDs at home vs 144 on the road.

    I think Ryan is fine this week, with the Steelers pass defense being atrocious and Ben being far better at home.

    I hate using the eye test argument and your stats are sound. That said, it’s almost as if their are 2 versions of Matt Ryan. Version one is a standard pretty good QB. Version 2 is Galactus.

    When Galactus Ryan shows up I’ll lock him into 8 home starts without hesitation. When standard pretty good QB Ryan shows up I don’t. While I do think it’s a bit of a narrative that he is bad outdoors (he might just be bad at Philly to be honest) many of his road games historically have been at the Saints (dome), Tampa (nice weather) or Carolina (while not Tampa, it’s not Green Bay either) so those could also inflate his road stats.

    Long story short, I don’t expect Galactus Matt Ryan to show up in Pittsburgh. He’ll probably put on a respectable showing like 275-2-1 but that’s not really lighting it up by 2018 standards.

    I’d love to see his non-division road stats from the last 4 or 5 years since he took the leap into the upper echelon.

  • hbomb57

    @Supanice said...

    Draftkings just gave me $1 for being a platinum player in September. $1. It’s actually insulting.

    Sort of do what the Fan did with Stanton’s HR the other day and send it back to DK in pennies.

  • 808state

    Cousins and Diggs stand out for me. Also Wentz now that the receiving group is healthy.

    The total of that game doesn’t make sense considering how both defenses are playing.

  • mr_papageorgio

    @Supanice said...

    Draftkings just gave me $1 for being a platinum player in September. $1. It’s actually insulting.

    Should have pushed for diamond, then you would have got $2.

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