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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/3
    8:20 PM EST : LA Rams ( 1 ) at Seattle ( -1 ) —- T: 49

    Sunday, 10/6
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -14.5 ) at Washington ( 14.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Pittsburgh ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -4.5 ) at NY Giants ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 14 ) at Philadelphia ( -14 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) at Carolina ( -3.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( -5 ) at Oakland ( 5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4 ) at Cincinnati ( -4 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 5.5 ) at New Orleans ( -5.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 5 ) at Houston ( -5 ) —- T: 49
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 6 ) at LA Chargers ( -6 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Dallas ( -4 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 9.5 ) at Kansas City ( -9.5 ) —- T: 57

    Monday, 10/7
    8:15 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at San Francisco ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    Who do you like this week Hood? Who’s the wisest guy on the forum got a sweet spot for(besides Mrs Hood, of course)?

    Lol you misspelled “oldest guy”. TY
    I don’t play cash ‘cause Squid said it was a dirty habit to pick up and if you listen to Mrs Hood my Dirty Habit Jar is already full. I play 3-4 GPP LUs in a couple of 3max/150max main slates and 3 family/friend leagues with the same GPP LUs. At the beginning of the week I was thinking the(my) player pool was smaller than usual.First 2 LUs, the usual 2-3 chalky RBs, Zeke, Cook, DJ with Dalton/Wentz Nuk. Punting/paying down at TE/D/WR3, no Ertz with my Wentz. Liking Wims over A.Tate/KJ down there, I’m too embarrassed to name the TEs I’m playing.
    It’s quite possible I’m being controlled by the dark side of this forum lol, the “think outside the box” faction (you know who you are, stop laughing at me lol).My 3rd LU has a 2RB,4 WR build where I spent most of my budget at WR. My 4 WRs in that LU are Julio, Nuk, what I’ve heard is “bad chalk” M. Thomas and point chasing Chris Godwin. My highest priced RB is the aforementioned D. Freeman and the same bile-inducing TE who shall remain nameless. What could go wrong when you go fishing (are the fish)?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @JTAx33 said...

    I was on Mixon initially but I’ve been less-thrilled as the week’s gone on. Most TD equity he’ll have all season and pivot off the passing game ownership makes sense to me though, but I don’t think I’ll be on it

    Yeah, I suppose I get it from a game-theory perspective, if in the line ups you’re fading Dalton/Boyd/Tate/Eifert, but otherwise, not sure. I’m not saying I think he’s a terrible play and people are crazy, I just don’t get it, personally. I guess home favorite in a projected higher pace /scoring game makes sense, but he has a terrible o-line, and although the Cards haven’t been elite against the run, they’re not a pushover either.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Talent + matchup. Mixon is way underperforming, is very competitive and talented and a necessary piece to get utilized if they want to win. Especially how low they are on offense pieces now.

    We all know Cardinals haven’t been able to stop anyone yet

  • JTAx33

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, I suppose I get it from a game-theory perspective, if in the line ups you’re fading Dalton/Boyd/Tate/Eifert, but otherwise, not sure. I’m not saying I think he’s a terrible play and people are crazy, I just don’t get it, personally. I guess home favorite in a projected higher pace /scoring game makes sense, but he has a terrible o-line, and although the Cards haven’t been elite against the run, they’re not a pushover either.

    In all fairness, he had a terrible line last year too and was still 4th in the NFL in rushing. If you’re gonna play him its this week

  • 33BeRad

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    AZ is awful against the pass.

    Are they? They’ve only given up 1 300yd day to a QB, and that was Stafford in their OT game. They are awful against TE’s

  • BIF

    @dimestorez said...

    What do you guys think about Kamara? I’m talking strictly DK tournaments here. I know that the Bucs rush defense has been playing lights out, but can’t we expect to see a ton of usage through the air for him? That appears to be the way to attack them for RB’s.

    His ownership is going to be the lowest, significantly, of the top 4 RB’s. He could be looking to get a ton of receptions this game.

    Did you even look at what RBs have done against the Bucs this year ?

    The answer is nothing !

    Bucs have given up only 16 reception for 130 yards with Zero TDs to RBs and they’ve played Brieda, CMC, Saquon (for a quarter) and Todd Gurley.

    I think their body of work is pretty impressive so far in the season given who they have played.

    To put this in perspective, a Team’s RBs are averaging 21.7 less FP versus the Bucs than they have score against their other opponents.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @BIF said...

    To put this in perspective, a Team’s RBs are averaging 21.7 less FP versus the Bucs than they have score against their other opponents.

    And I believe they’re getting their difference making LB White back? Thanks again for setting up the Happier meal

  • deeebo

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    Curtis Samuel vs a Ramsey-less just got lit up by Joe Flacco, defense

    ok so who do i play at 4.5 or 4.6k on fd

  • mike42

    @Pandamonious said...

    Are people on Mixon, because they think the Bengals run away with the game? Or are people thinking it’s an exploitable match up? I’ve seen Mixon mentioned heavy and often through these 30 pages and I have zero idea why.

    I think he easily gets 25 plus ppr friendly touches Vs a bad Arz D that may not show up for the start of this early start game. Also think there is a better than 50% chance Cincy does show up early in this one. He’s talented and got a high ceiling.

    Basically, I think Mixon will get Zeke or Cooks usage in a good matchup, at home, for 2k plus less.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    For Deebo

    Sorry Kid, Samuel/G Tate similar priced on DK, forgot you’re FD based. Not sure about pricing there but I posted 3 cheap WRs earlier and you can always go back to Golden. Has 100 hrs gone by already? It’s like you never left

  • mike42

    @Pandamonious said...

    Yeah, I suppose I get it from a game-theory perspective, if in the line ups you’re fading Dalton/Boyd/Tate/Eifert, but otherwise, not sure. I’m not saying I think he’s a terrible play and people are crazy, I just don’t get it, personally. I guess home favorite in a projected higher pace /scoring game makes sense, but he has a terrible o-line, and although the Cards haven’t been elite against the run, they’re not a pushover either.

    Sometimes stats don’t matter, especially when bad teams play each other. Part of my thesis is cincy shows up and Arz doesn’t. The second part is both D’s get tired late in this meaningless game. The third part is Mixon gets heavy usage because of injuries and they are 0-4 and haven’t got the run game going. I think he ends up scoring like the 8k plus guys with 1/2 the ownership, in large part because he gets similar usage to them.

    I think Mixon struggled early last year and blew up in a setup just like this. So, there’s that. I’m done now. I wasn’t high on him early in the week but I think I would regret passing up on elite usage Vs Arz’s D.

  • mike42

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    And I believe they’re getting their difference making LB White back? Thanks again for setting up the Happier meal

    So I started the week thinking MT is bad chalk but I’m not so sure anymore and it’s because TB is so good Vs the run. NO’s has been playing the protect the ball and run the clock game since Bree’s went down and despite that, MT has done well. Now they are playing against the most extreme pass funnel D in the NFL and are either going to pass more or a lot more. Under either scenario, Vs this pass D, he’s capable of 10-100 plus and 1-2 TD’s. He should be a extremely large percentage of their O unless J. Cook takes some of that.

    BIF, you think they double up on MT? Does Bowles do that type of thing? I think Cook is worth a GPP flyer and MT is a good play.

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    Sometimes stats don’t matter, especially when bad teams play each other. Part of my thesis is cincy shows up and Arz doesn’t. The second part is both D’s get tired late in this meaningless game. The third part is Mixon gets heavy usage because of injuries and they are 0-4 and haven’t got the run game going. I think he ends up scoring like the 8k plus guys with 1/2 the ownership, in large part because he gets similar usage to them.

    I think Mixon struggled early last year and blew up in a setup just like this. So, there’s that. I’m done now. I wasn’t high on him early in the week but I think I would regret passing up on elite usage Vs Arz’s D.

    Just from a strategy perspective I have a question. If you are playing Mixon thinking he equals the high priced guys then haven’t you really not gained any leverage once lineups lock because you are now to raw points? Don’t you want a low owned guy that can outscore the top backs? I get that you now have money to pay up somewhere else but there will be a cheap WR that does well, there seemingly is every week (and that I am not on, HA!). Not arguing the play, just asking a strategy question.

  • 33BeRad

    @mike42 said...

    So I started the week thinking MT is bad chalk but I’m not so sure anymore and it’s because TB is so good Vs the run. NO’s has been playing the protect the ball and run the clock game since Bree’s went down and despite that, MT has done well. Now they are playing against the most extreme pass funnel D in the NFL and are either going to pass more or a lot more. Under either scenario, Vs this pass D, he’s capable of 10-100 plus and 1-2 TD’s. He should be a extremely large percentage of their O unless J. Cook takes some of that.

    BIF, you think they double up on MT? Does Bowles do that type of thing? I think Cook is worth a GPP flyer and MT is a good play.

    The other part of the TB def that is good is defending the short pass. This would’ve been a perfect Ginn play if Teddy would throw the ball downfield.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @mike42 said...

    I think Mixon struggled early last year and blew up in a setup just like this. So, there’s that. I’m done now. I wasn’t high on him early in the week but I think I would regret passing up on elite usage Vs Arz’s D.

    People might be forgetting Mixon left week 1 early due to a sprained ankle and seems to be finally past that. His touches/tgts have increased each week, 9-16-17-20. In a pace up game this week, I don’t think 25+ is a stretch. Arizona D middle of the pack vs RBs so you’re not getting the matchup Zeke/DJ have but it’s not like Mixon is playing the Pats/TB D’s. I think the 2.1K discount more than makes up for that. I’m just not sure why he would be so low owned in a game a lot of people seem to be on?

  • realphipps

    Mixon has clearly taken the reigns of the Cincinnati backfield. In the past 3 weeks, he’s accounted for 41/51 carries and 12/23 targets thrown to for the Bengals RB.

    The Ingram (6.3) and Mixon (6.1) ownership and actual production will be interesting to watch this week. Even with the public perception of one being a workhorse and the other being in a time share, they have the exact same number of carries over the past three weeks with Mixon being targeted 5 more times (a little more than once more per game).

    Ingram has a significantly better run-blocking offensive line at 5.08 adjusted line yards per carry (second best in the league), 5.21 RB yards per carry, only a 10% stuffed rate (second best in the league) and 1.55 yards per carry at the 2nd level (3rd best in the league).

    Mixon’s offensive line is run blocking at a rate of 3.21 adjusted line yards per carry (2nd worst in league), 2.89 RB yards per carry (second worst in the league), with a 31% stuffed rate (worst in the league) and .89 yards per carry at the 2nd level.

    They’re both playing well below average run defenses, with Pittsburgh at 20th DVOA and Arizona at 24th DVOA.

    Ingram has the better offensive line. Probably more + opportunities in the red zone.
    Mixon playing at home in a pace-up game. No QB to steal rushing opportunities. $200 less.

    I’ll have quite a bit of both.

  • BIF

    @mike42 said...

    So I started the week thinking MT is bad chalk but I’m not so sure anymore and it’s because TB is so good Vs the run. NO’s has been playing the protect the ball and run the clock game since Bree’s went down and despite that, MT has done well. Now they are playing against the most extreme pass funnel D in the NFL and are either going to pass more or a lot more. Under either scenario, Vs this pass D, he’s capable of 10-100 plus and 1-2 TD’s. He should be a extremely large percentage of their O unless J. Cook takes some of that.

    BIF, you think they double up on MT? Does Bowles do that type of thing? I think Cook is worth a GPP flyer and MT is a good play.

    I doubt they double MT as they’ll key on Kamara and getting a pass rush on Teddy – Cook has been getting a 20% share of target the past 2 games so he has a good shot at his best day this year especially if Bucs can get lead or keep close

  • ssilberman2012

    I never really create H2Hs, only do 50/50s. I created like 100 $1 and $2 H2Hs across almost every slate and this one guy “stankycheese” took almost every single one. He doesn’t have a star or any experience badge but has to be a shark, right? Is this allowed? How do you stop one shark from taking all your H2Hs???

  • deeebo

    ok i think im good with my lineup. it includes mahomes cook zeke dj and thomas

  • keephustlincuz

    @deeebo said...

    ok i think im good with my lineup. it includes mahomes cook zeke dj and thomas

    Just remember deebo… we need a piece of the pie.

  • BigPod

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    I never really create H2Hs, only do 50/50s. I created like 100 $1 and $2 H2Hs across almost every slate and this one guy “stankycheese” took almost every single one. He doesn’t have a star or any experience badge but has to be a shark, right? Is this allowed? How do you stop one shark from taking all your H2Hs???

    There is a drop down at the very bottom of the dk page where you enter the number of h2h’s you wish to create , you can set that to max allowed 1 or however many you choose.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    I like pie

  • ssilberman2012

    @BigPod said...

    There is a drop down at the very bottom of the dk page where you enter the number of h2h’s you wish to create , you can set that to max allowed 1 or however many you choose.

    sorry – this was FD. there is no limit but this activity is just very suspicious. Dude has no experience badge next to his name. We are straight up betting like $150

  • kevtav

    u/bignumber59 from reddit scrubbed 82 videos/articles to see what the “experts” are picking. good info to use to see what the chalky plays will be: https://imgur.com/a/djs0JjS

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @ssilberman2012 said...

    sorry – this was FD. there is no limit but this activity is just very suspicious. Dude has no experience badge next to his name. We are straight up betting like $150

    Good luck

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