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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, 10/3
    8:20 PM EST : LA Rams ( 1 ) at Seattle ( -1 ) —- T: 49

    Sunday, 10/6
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -14.5 ) at Washington ( 14.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -4 ) at Pittsburgh ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Minnesota ( -4.5 ) at NY Giants ( 4.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : NY Jets ( 14 ) at Philadelphia ( -14 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Buffalo ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 38.5
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 3.5 ) at Carolina ( -3.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( -5 ) at Oakland ( 5 ) —- T: 41.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( 4 ) at Cincinnati ( -4 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 5.5 ) at New Orleans ( -5.5 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 5 ) at Houston ( -5 ) —- T: 49
    4:05 PM EST : Denver ( 6 ) at LA Chargers ( -6 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : Green Bay ( 4 ) at Dallas ( -4 ) —- T: 48
    8:20 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 9.5 ) at Kansas City ( -9.5 ) —- T: 57

    Monday, 10/7
    8:15 PM EST : Cleveland ( 3.5 ) at San Francisco ( -3.5 ) —- T: 47.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • S7ubs

    Was already pretty high on Sony tomorrow. Burkhead is now doubtful. Like him even more now

  • mattspot10

    @S7ubs said...

    Was already pretty high on Sony tomorrow. Burkhead is now doubtful. Like him even more now

    Burkhead has already been ruled Out for tomorrow.

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @S7ubs said...

    Was already pretty high on Sony tomorrow. Burkhead is now doubtful. Like him even more now

    So hard to trust any pats backs. I was eyeing Sony when I saw rex was out but the patriot way is to have Bolden vulture him. I just can’t do it

  • AVivier

    Not gonna read through all 37 pages so apologies if guys have been mentioned, but a couple low-owned WRs I like:

    Mike Williams 1% – I assume Harris will follow Allen since he’s been a shutdown corner most of his career and he was moved outside this year to be on the opposing WR1 more. Williams should be left in a mis-match and should get targeted more than usual.

    Hollywood 7% – He’s busted a couple weeks and gets the anti-recency bias. Pittsburgh gives up a lot of big plays and can’t handle his speed, while Lamar is athletic enough to buy time to make the throws.

    Diggs 2% – Going against arguably the worst duo of starting CBs, he has the feed me narrative going and can absolutely bust or bust the slate.

    Dorsett 1% – The 2 weeks he’s busted have been @ BUF and the week AB played. Highest implied total on the board and his production seems to always go unnoticed.

  • ASitar

    @AVivier said...

    Not gonna read through all 37 pages so apologies if guys have been mentioned, but a couple low-owned WRs I like:

    Mike Williams 1% – I assume Harris will follow Allen since he’s been a shutdown corner most of his career and he was moved outside this year to be on the opposing WR1 more. Williams should be left in a mis-match and should get targeted more than usual.

    Hollywood 7% – He’s busted a couple weeks and gets the anti-recency bias. Pittsburgh gives up a lot of big plays and can’t handle his speed, while Lamar is athletic enough to buy time to make the throws.

    Diggs 2% – Going against arguably the worst duo of starting CBs, he has the feed me narrative going and can absolutely bust or bust the slate.

    Dorsett 1% – The 2 weeks he’s busted have been @ BUF and the week AB played. Highest implied total on the board and his production seems to always go unnoticed.

    What do you think of Sutton?

  • Dr_Gonzo

    @AVivier said...

    Dorsett 1%

    Dorsett will not be 1%

  • AVivier

    @ASitar said...

    What do you think of Sutton?

    Don’t have a strong opinion. Fant, Manny and Lindsay are the only Broncos in my player pool and I don’t love any of them. Don’t see them having a lot of drop back passing and attacking the corners downfield. Only takes a couple plays for someone like him, and you have a low owned guy that hits, so don’t hate it either. Sorry I don’t have a hot take lol

  • AVivier

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    Dorsett will not be 1%

    Pbly not, just using what RG had listed at the time of the post.

  • AVivier

    @Dr_Gonzo said...

    So hard to trust any pats backs. I was eyeing Sony when I saw rex was out but the patriot way is to have Bolden vulture him. I just can’t do it

    Not a lot of scenarios where James White doesn’t have a positive game here. Michel is the boom/boost TD guy and fine. The Pats as a whole are being ridiculously overlooked. Playing at BUF was no joke, this is the buy low, get right spot on all of it including Brady.

  • Agent47

    @mike42 said...

    Flacco is the one to fade. It was a one week thing because Fangio said it was easier to pass against Jax sans Ramsey than run, You can’t count on Flacco 2 weeks in a row. I think they run a lot to keep their D fresh, that was another issue last week, D got tired late.

    I’m not going all-in on Flacco but I definitely have some Flacco stacks with either Sutton or Sanders. The Chargers are 30th in the league in pass DVOA, and Ingram being out again this week could mean a little more time for Flacco to throw. With the Broncos as 6-point underdogs, Flacco could be forced to throw more than expected, and a stack with him and one of his top 2 WR costs less than 10K on DK. So it’s not like they need to combine for 60 points in order to smash at those prices, but I sure wouldn’t mind if they did haha.

  • Tech9r

    DK Cash – A.Jones/Sanders/Bengals vs Fournette/Fuller/Panthers

  • Arenas2Wall

    Something tells me 4 TDs from Colt Mccoy

  • BigPod

    @Tech9r said...

    DK Cash – A.Jones/Sanders/Bengals vs Fournette/Fuller/Panthers

    I like the Second option fwiw. Leonard and Jones are probably a push , Fuller is probably going to be in a track meet and is always a play away from a big day while Sanders could see a lot of Heyward, and Carolina D continues to be underpriced, I do
    Ike the Cincy D as well with the sacks Kyler takes but that game will probably be high scoring.

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    Is neither an option? How could you play Fuller in cash

  • superjon

    @Arenas2Wall said...

    Something tells me 4 TDs from Colt Mccoy

    Well, let’s just consider some facts.

    1. His career high in a game is 3 TDs (once in 2014)
    2. He’s only thrown 2 TDs in a game 7 times in his career
    3. WAS has an implied total of 13.5
    4. NE has only allowed 1 offensive TD this season.
    5. Colt Mccoy is not a good NFL QB

  • BigPod

    @Arenas2Wall said...

    Something tells me 4 TDs from Colt Mccoy

    And I hope he throws them all to Sprinkle ;)

  • Dunzor

    @S7ubs said...

    Was already pretty high on Sony tomorrow. Burkhead is now doubtful. Like him even more now

    I think the correct answer is James White. The Burkhead/white combo (or solo) has averaged a total of 20pts per game, so when White is the only one of them on the field those are his points to eat (plus a bit of TD equity since they like the receiver back in there for a lot of red zone packages)

  • superjon

    @Dunzor said...

    I think the correct answer is James White. The Burkhead/white combo (or solo) has averaged a total of 20pts per game, so when White is the only one of them on the field those are his points to eat (plus a bit of TD equity since they like the receiver back in there for a lot of red zone packages)

    Looking at WAS last few games vs RB1 and RB2, and they do seem to give up more points to the RB1.

    I will have both Michel and White, but will likely be much heavier on Michel.

  • smokeyca14

    @superjon said...

    Well, let’s just consider some facts.

    1. His career high in a game is 3 TDs (once in 2014)
    2. He’s only thrown 2 TDs in a game 7 times in his career
    3. WAS has an implied total of 13.5
    4. NE has only allowed 1 offensive TD this season.
    5. Colt Mccoy is not a good NFL QB

    Patriots D?

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    At some point NE has to establish the run. Was is giving up 150 yards a game rushing, James white will get at most 20 of that. It’s hard to pull the trigger on Sony though, I think he just doesn’t look good.
    Damien Harris 200 yard game? It seems to early in the season to pull out the secret weapon though

  • superjon

    @smokeyca14 said...

    Patriots D?

    What about them?

  • TomBradyBlueMamba

    @superjon said...

    What about them?

    You brought up 5 reasons why Colt sucks your boy brought up a reason why he sucks even more this weekend, carry on.

  • superjon

    @TomBradyBlueMamba said...

    You brought up 5 reasons why Colt sucks your boy brought up a reason why he sucks even more this weekend, carry on.

    The Patriots D was one of my 5 reasons.

    I just wasn’t sure if he was asking if he should play them or not.

  • ASitar

    @Agent47 said...

    I’m not going all-in on Flacco but I definitely have some Flacco stacks with either Sutton or Sanders. The Chargers are 30th in the league in pass DVOA, and Ingram being out again this week could mean a little more time for Flacco to throw. With the Broncos as 6-point underdogs, Flacco could be forced to throw more than expected, and a stack with him and one of his top 2 WR costs less than 10K on DK. So it’s not like they need to combine for 60 points in order to smash at those prices, but I sure wouldn’t mind if they did haha.

    I’ve got Lindsay/Sutton in a LU. Makes me a bit nervous but the 2 could combine for 50 DK points in the right game script

  • miggs6876

    @smokeyca14 said...

    Patriots D?

    I hate spending up at D. 5.5k on fd is really steep. Can someone talk me off them for gpp?

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