NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 13th
    8:25 PM EST : Denver ( -2.5 ) at San Diego ( 2.5 ) —- T: —

    Sunday, October 16th
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Tennessee ( -6 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -2 ) at Washington ( 2 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7.5 ) at Buffalo ( -7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 2 ) at Chicago ( -2 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -7.5 ) at Miami ( 7.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8 ) at New England ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Los Angeles ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( 2 ) at Oakland ( -2 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6 ) at Seattle ( -6 ) —- T: 45.5
    8:30 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3.5 ) at Houston ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Monday, October 17th
    8:30 PM EST : NY Jets ( 6.5 ) at Arizona ( -6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Gheag2014

    @Davey224 said...

    Is M.Thomas (NO) too much of a risk in cash? Who would be a better pivot?

    Cameron meridith and tevon austin

  • Gheag2014

    @pick6er said...

    Hilton-benjamin-jones in that order in my opinion. You can’t overlook Hiltons targets plus I think johnathan Joseph is out with a concussion so he will run wild.
    KB could hang 2 TDs and I wouldn’t be surprised one bit. Game flow should be a shootout.
    Jones has an excellent matchup don’t get me wrong, but his targets are either high or low and with the pressure upfront from STL I doubt he gets to complete his deeper routes! All my opinion though, take it with a grain of salt!

    As a Texans fan, Joseph has played like trash this year if he does miss the second year nickel guy Johnson will start who’s looked like a stud

  • CleverGroom

    @pick6er said...

    You can’t get much better than KB in the big easy!

    I know this was 8 hours and a few pages ago, but I felt an urgent need to highlight what nonsense it is. Benjamin has a TOTAL of 4-42-1 in two career games against New Orleans. His average is, you know, half that. He’s surrounded by over half a dozen alternative weapons. Note also that NO has somehow managed to all but erase every WR1 they’ve played this year—including Julio.

    Under no circumstances would I play KB in cash this week. He’s been a picture of boom or bust this season, and signs point towards the latter this week, even in a Superdome shootout. Proceed with caution, and only in GPPs.

  • econbrah11

    If Cam plays I would fade Carolina’s wide receivers. What made the Panthers good last year is that Cam spread the ball a lot. With Cam and J Stew back in the lineup, I expect them to go back to what made them successful last year i.e. run the ball and spread the ball. Don’t be surprised if Ted Ginn or Corey Brown get a TD

  • Gheag2014

    Are people actually playing Charles in cash?

  • vet0307

    Possible WR’s

    Kerley – If reports shows he plays
    Brown
    LaFell

  • zpa1989

    dwayne washington with riddick out? jalen richard with murray out? some value opening up for the RB spot. GPP consideration only, both guys too risky for cash. but at that cheap of a price, hard to turn away a realistic 15 touches from either at home in decent matchups.

  • gillio

    Hoyer or Brees (GPP)

  • Gheag2014

    Are people actually playing Charles in cash?

  • TheWhiteMamba

    Might go back to DeAndre Washington. I still think his upside is greater than Richard.

  • thefellowship

    @RobertoTomba said...

    I’m not sure what people are seeing that’s worrying them so much. Light Rain predicted in Seattle, and a drizzle in Oakland. Bookmark this site and check periodically (they update every hour):

    http://nflweather.com/

    FL :

    “”(player-popup)Amari Cooper”:/players/amari-cooper-21757 (WR) | OAK | $7500
    10/14/16 10:23 AM
    Raiders-Chiefs’ matchup has a 90% chance of rain.

    In addition to the high chance of rainfall, winds are projected to be gusting at over 24 miles per hour. This level of wind speed is seldom seen, but has been bad news for wide receivers priced over $5000 on DraftKings in the past. They’ve posted a -3.68 Plus/Minus and averaged just 7.77 DraftKings points in games with wind speed over 20 miles per hour over the past three seasons. Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree won’t be helped at all by this weather, but Cooper still figures to have the better matchup considering Crabtree is expected to see a lot of Marcus Peters — PFF’s 14th-highest graded cornerback this season. Cooper is priced at $7100 on FanDuel with a 99 percent Bargain Rating, though his 21-25 percent FantasyLabs projected ownership is significantly higher than similarly-priced receivers Julian Edelman and Terrelle Pryor.
    Player Card”

  • CleverGroom

    @lineupofpeace said...

    Defense is the easiest position to fade the chalk given the variance.

    Counterpoint: even the chalkiest DSTs are never owned at the same rate as top WR/RB chalk. You don’t get much benefit from diversifying at DST, relative to other positions.

    There’s no matchup/stat-based reason not to play Bills DST this week. They’re the most productive fantasy DST in the game—even in the one week they didn’t score a TD—they’re playing at home, the forecast calls for 100% precipitation and 15-20 MPH winds, their opponent is traveling west coast to east and starting early, and a diminished Colin Kaepernick is in his first start of the season.

    It is easily the best matchup of the week with the possible exception of Fitzpatrick traveling to Arizona, but based on last week I’d say Bowles has him on a pretty short leash. He knows it’ll be all aboard the Geno Coaster if he throws another 5+ turnover game. NYJ@ARI isn’t on the main slate anyway.

    Also, I feel like people forget, but Rex Ryan is really good at defense. He has a talented roster that’s finally buying into his coaching. They should be crushing fools. Between Shady looking like his old self, Tyrod’s scampers, and the mind-numbing incompetence of SF against the run, they ought to be able to take enough air out of the ball to rest their pass rushers between frenetic rounds of Niner stomping.

    With regard to Jarvis Landry, Sean Davis is projected to cover the slot. He’s spent 93% of his snaps there, compared to 50% from Gay. Gay has 115 more snaps than Davis, but 75 of those came against KC, which Davis sat out with a back issue. He’s full go now, and Landry should benefit. PFF grades Sean Davis as one of the worst secondary starters in the league.

    On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is kind of awful, and I’m afraid he’s projected to start as well.

    As for weather, check multiple sources and wait to see. I’m probably moving off of the Seattle and Oakland passing games for the most part, but we should have a better idea of what’s going on with that storm tomorrow. Or Sunday.

    I think you can pick your poison between Richard and Washington in Oakland. Usage is almost identical. Washington has a couple more red zone opportunities, but realistically they’re both behind Jamize at the goal line, so their best chance is to break a big one through the porous KC run D. Either has a decent shot.

  • Richebee

    Who remembers the one time Jamaal Charles had 16 touches against Oakland and scored 5 times and put up a 62 burger?

  • thefellowship

    @pick6er said...

    Play Fuller and Landry and your own risk! Vontae is said to not follow Nuk around, I would imagine the Texans keep Nuk away as much as possible. If William Gay mans the slot, Jarvis is in for a LONG day. Gay is a ferocious slot defender and has many years of elite production under his belt. I like Maclin the most, the weather should play in his favor for route running in slop and he will be going against his former teammate Sean Smith. therefore he knows he gets a huge edge knowing smith’s coverage tendencies. Maclin’s due for 100 + TD. Just my 2 cents.

    Does William Gay play in the slot some this year or is it Davis? I agree it is two totally different animals.

  • Supanice

    I really hope the Milly maker winning lineup consists of a Brady stack plus lafell. They planned it all along!

  • Richebee

    @Supanice said...

    I really hope the Milly maker winning lineup consists of a Brady stack plus lafell. They planned it all along!

    I have this in a few. And Harambe promised this was my week for the million.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @CleverGroom said...

    Counterpoint: even the chalkiest DSTs are never owned at the same rate as top WR/RB chalk. You don’t get much benefit from diversifying at DST, relative to other positions.

    There’s no matchup/stat-based reason not to play Bills DST this week. They’re the most productive fantasy DST in the game—even in the one week they didn’t score a TD—they’re playing at home, the forecast calls for 100% precipitation and 15-20 MPH winds, their opponent is traveling west coast to east and starting early, and a diminished Colin Kaepernick is in his first start of the season.

    It is easily the best matchup of the week with the possible exception of Fitzpatrick traveling to Arizona, but based on last week I’d say Bowles has him on a pretty short leash. He knows it’ll be all aboard the Geno Coaster if he throws another 5+ turnover game. NYJ@ARI isn’t on the main slate anyway.

    Also, I feel like people forget, but Rex Ryan is really good at defense. He has a talented roster that’s finally buying into his coaching. They should be crushing fools. Between Shady looking like his old self, Tyrod’s scampers, and the mind-numbing incompetence of SF against the run, they ought to be able to take enough air out of the ball to rest their pass rushers between frenetic rounds of Niner stomping.

    With regard to Jarvis Landry, Sean Davis is projected to cover the slot. He’s spent 93% of his snaps there, compared to 50% from Gay. Gay has 115 more snaps than Davis, but 75 of those came against KC, which Davis sat out with a back issue. He’s full go now, and Landry should benefit. PFF grades Sean Davis as one of the worst secondary starters in the league.

    On the other hand, Ryan Tannehill is kind of awful, and I’m afraid he’s projected to start as well.

    As for weather, check multiple sources and wait to see. I’m probably moving off of the Seattle and Oakland passing games for the most part, but we should have a better idea of what’s going on with that storm tomorrow. Or Sunday.

    I think you can pick your poison between Richard and Washington in Oakland. Usage is almost identical. Washington has a couple more red zone opportunities, but realistically they’re both behind Jamize at the goal line, so their best chance is to break a big one through the porous KC run D. Either has a decent shot.

    Just wanted to say great response. I see you only joined RG recently but love having contributions like this in these threads. Keep up the good work. And good luck!

  • CleverGroom

    @thehazyone said...

    Just wanted to say great response. I see you only joined RG recently but love having contributions like this in these threads. Keep up the good work. And good luck!

    Thanks, babe! Really appreciate everything that you guys have built here. I feel a little weird chipping in with so little experience, but I expect everybody’s able to see when I’m being reasonable and scoff when I’m not.

    You know…that Saahil Sud article was kind of a buzzkill. It’s hard to like my chances of maintaining anything remotely near my current ROI when a smart, resourceful, younger dude with an enormous bankroll is working his fingers to the bone for 10-15%.

    I’m special, damnit. I am special and always will be. I’m just going to keep winning every week for the rest of the year, then coast on the compounded profits till next NFL season.

    Because I am special. And statistics are for nerds.

  • Cbed11

    Tavon-Tate stack

  • Gheag2014

    Finally decided on cam in cash

  • billholler

    @CleverGroom said...

    Thanks, babe! Really appreciate everything that you guys have built here. I feel a little weird chipping in with so little experience, but I expect everybody’s able to see when I’m being reasonable and scoff when I’m not.

    You know…that Saahil Sud article was kind of a buzzkill. It’s hard to like my chances of maintaining anything remotely near my current ROI when a smart, resourceful, younger dude with an enormous bankroll is working his fingers to the bone for 10-15%.

    I’m special, damnit. I am special and always will be. I’m just going to keep winning every week for the rest of the year, then coast on the compounded profits till next NFL season.

    Because I am special. And statistics are for nerds.

    There are Axe spray commercials about talking too much. Yeah, you just did that.

  • kdsdawg

    I think people stack the Thursday night game in case its a fantasy fest and it will be low owned..not a big deal to folks with a big bankroll..hell, I played dollar and stacked it..its a dollar..who cares…and my bankroll is small

  • getlucky4

    Idk about this weather bs. I’ve switched off in these spots and hated myself for it. How much should these game totals drop?

  • PCSurgeon

    @killakong said...

    Michael Thomas or Cameron Meredith? I’m digging in the bargain bin and have it down to these 2. Other bargain bin WR recommendations are accepted here

    I have a feeling there is a TON of people asking themselves the same thing……

  • PCSurgeon

    @Richebee said...

    Who remembers the one time Jamaal Charles had 16 touches against Oakland and scored 5 times and put up a 62 burger?

    Well if he does again its going to surprise a lot of people and I think he’ll be severely under owned this week as well. Would probably clinch a GPP for someone.

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