NFL FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 13th
    8:25 PM EST : Denver ( -2.5 ) at San Diego ( 2.5 ) —- T: —

    Sunday, October 16th
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 6 ) at Tennessee ( -6 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -2 ) at Washington ( 2 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Carolina ( -3 ) at New Orleans ( 3 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 7.5 ) at Buffalo ( -7.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Jacksonville ( 2 ) at Chicago ( -2 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -7.5 ) at Miami ( 7.5 ) —- T: 48
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 8 ) at New England ( -8 ) —- T: 47
    1:00 PM EST : Los Angeles ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( 3 ) at NY Giants ( -3 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( 2 ) at Oakland ( -2 ) —- T: 46.5
    4:25 PM EST : Dallas ( 4.5 ) at Green Bay ( -4.5 ) —- T: —
    4:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( 6 ) at Seattle ( -6 ) —- T: 45.5
    8:30 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 3.5 ) at Houston ( -3.5 ) —- T: 46

    Monday, October 17th
    8:30 PM EST : NY Jets ( 6.5 ) at Arizona ( -6.5 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • Dadeano860

    The fact Kaep is only $500 less than Hoyer on fanduel is puzzling- what does Hoyer have to do to get his price elevated? I saw Whitehurst got bought out and they brought in Hogan. If Kessler is out might they just give Pryor run at QB?

  • mbyrd75

    @bignish said...

    False, Houstons are 5th in Pass Defense DVOA through Week 4 (not updated for Week 5). Bradford was successful against them at home on Sunday but in general this is not a pass defense you want to go out of your way to target. Lamar Miller is active in the pass game as well so he“ll get a bunch of short passes if the Texans need to play catch up so he’s generally game flow proof.

    Sometimes numbers aren’t always what they seem. Yes they were 5th in DVOA through week 4 but they’d played the Cutler led bears, Alex smith’s chiefs, Jacoby Brissett Pats, and the awful pass game of the Titans. Just looking at numbers without context can lead you astray as quickly as ignoring the numbers. No reason at all Luck and Hilton aren’t in play this week IMO.

    My worry with the Texans is just how bad their offense is in general. Bad OL, Bad QB play, and Miller has been insanely inefficient. LIke one of the worst RBs in the league level inefficient despite his volume. It’ll definitely be interesting.

  • CleverGroom

    Why the Tavon love this week?

    Detroit literally leads the league in net punt yardage. Half of Martin’s punts are fair catches or touchbacks and the other half average 5 yards per return. This isn’t likely to be the week Tavon breaks one for a return TD. As for his duties on offense, you’re talking about a pint-sized slot receiver against a team that just gave up a 4-65-0 line to Jordan Matthews. I don’t think Jordan Matthews is a worse receiver or easier matchup for Slay and Co. than Tavon Austin.

    What’s the case for Tavon, other than that I’m supposed to believe he’s somehow due for a big game with Case Keenum under center?

  • getlucky4

    Roster construction forcing people to play lafell or tavon pretty much. Unless some cheap rb opens up your gonna have to hit on a cheap wr.

  • Dadeano860

    @getlucky4 said...

    Roster construction forcing people to play lafell or tavon pretty much. Unless some cheap rb opens up your gonna have to hit on a cheap wr.

    Lots of better low priced options than Austin in my opinion. He’s a fine GPP play though. With every top RB in a great spot, the top WRs are going to go way underowned.

  • kpquick24

    I believe Allen Hurns deserves a spot in some lineups.

  • hanezg

    @w3stcoastoff3ns3 said...

    I love a Wilson/Baldwin/Graham stack this week. Also look for Julio to bounce back, he’s had success against LOB before.

    You read my mind on the stack!

  • MastenPark

    edit

  • MastenPark

    @Dadeano860 said...

    No one talked about Bennett in the forum last week, now people coming out of the wood work saying they played him. Share the love!

    Beckham really jumped out at me as under priced on FD. Think this is the cheapest you’ll get him all year and at home. Eli force fed him vs Green Bay and see the same this week. Looking at QB, Brees looks good and Hoyer still underpriced. A Hoyer-Meredith-Miller stack is still in play. Howard looks like the real deal at RB, Chicago stinks but are dfs gold

    My bad regarding Bennett. I didn’t come to the forum this season and I’ve paid the price. My value plays are hitting but my Chalk has been terrible. I had to remember my limited success has come from sharing and receiving in this fourm. Glad to be back home

  • sirrobert6

    • Blogger of the Month

    @kpquick24 said...

    I believe Allen Hurns deserves a spot in some lineups.

    in all the lineups lolol

  • Jpitten

    @dearmand said...

    Can someone tell me why I keep getting an error on Draftkings saying that I’ve reached my current restriction of contests? I have 71 50/50s ($5 and $10) and 6 GPP’s so far. I’m not entering any beginner contests.

    Close app and start again. It was a GPS issue

  • zpa1989

    @kpquick24 said...

    I believe Allen Hurns deserves a spot in some lineups.

    yup i brought him up earlier. his price is getting almost too low on FD given what we know his upside is. great gpp target.

  • kpquick24

    This QB switch to Kap makes me want to play the Bills defense more. I don’t see him coming out there and tearing it up after not playing much in a while and having several surgeries, but.. I do see a possible fumble and an interception or two.

  • BIF

    @ASitar said...

    BIF, who would you suggest I swap Hyde out for? Salary is used up with my Flex. I respect your opinion. I think Kap being in will hp Hyde as the D will be looking for Kap to run.

    Tough one as the backs I like are more expensive – I’ve nailed down my chalky picks and now trying to sort thru the value plays. Not much at RB as cheaper guys like Jones and West appear to be giving way a little to their backups in terms of touch numbers. A not as sneaky as it would have been (before Monday night) value play may be Artis-Payne (if Stewart misses game) against NO with Cam back who is probably being told not to run and take any hits. Another guy would be Jamaal Charles as lots of people will be playing the wait and see game after he didn’t play much vs Pitt but he has had 2 weeks since then to get healthy and will (should) be their clear #1 RB vs Oak so a decent matchup and a game flow that requires KC to play full out for 60 mins. One last cheaper RB would be Bernard as game flow (falling behind early to the Patriots) should open up more of a Bengals attack that fits how they use Bernard versus how they use J Hill (if he even plays as he is injured). Others may be taking a flyer on Smallwood getting more touches after Mathews fumbled the game away last week.

  • Metalmitch72

    Siege and Stevietpfl talked about Bennett in their NFL podcast. I had Ertz in a bunch of lineup but also had some Bennett as well

  • Cbed11

    @CleverGroom said...

    Why the Tavon love this week?

    Detroit literally leads the league in net punt yardage. Half of Martin’s punts are fair catches or touchbacks and the other half average 5 yards per return. This isn’t likely to be the week Tavon breaks one for a return TD. As for his duties on offense, you’re talking about a pint-sized slot receiver against a team that just gave up a 4-65-0 line to Jordan Matthews. I don’t think Jordan Matthews is a worse receiver or easier matchup for Slay and Co. than Tavon Austin.

    What’s the case for Tavon, other than that I’m supposed to believe he’s somehow due for a big game with Case Keenum under center?

    He is $3900 and is averaging nine targets a game. Not going to find too many guys at that price point that are as involved as he is. Eddie Royal did just put up a 7 catch 100+ yard 1 td performance against them two weeks ago.

  • mstunnabro

    May be biased as a bears fan, but i think meredith is a great value again this week. Jeffrey is going to draw attention, leading to more passes to royal and meredith, and meredith slid right into kevin whites spot and thats where hoyer loves to throw the ball right now. i see another great week from facing off against Jax, and you could even throw in some howard and get every possible bears touchdown. IMO a decent stack from salary standpoint

  • Boneys2000

    Hey guys,easy question I’m sure,but what does DVOA stand for,and is it something important to know?Im trying to get better at this,and I was until last week.Thanks so much!

  • Jcaljr88

    You think Brandin cooks will be low owned?? I feel like the Saints/panthers game will be one of the highest owned games…

  • pick6er

    @Jcaljr88 said...

    You think Brandin cooks will be low owned?? I feel like the Saints/panthers game will be one of the highest owned games…

    I’d imagine so. Outside of Brees in the Big Easy it’s a crapshoot who will go off.

  • pick6er

    I feel pretty confident with my cash lineup despite having Alex Smith at the helm. Hopefully I get a replay of the week 4 mojo I got from my Smith/Kelce stack.

    Anyone else rocking out Seattle D#? I honestly feel this is the week Matt Ryan comes back to earth, his 6:1 TD-INT ratio is about to get balanced out. I very easily see a 24-10 Seattle win, 4 sacks, 2 INT and a Lockett house call on ST!

  • madmanjayWV

    this is on ya-hoo, but ……….How can one pay $40 for Russ Wilson when Kap is $20 for the 49ers??????? UGH……..

  • Jwsmith

    Robert woods had 5/100 on 7 targets playing alongside Sammy Watkins last year playing against the chip Kelly led Eagles. Same philosophy here in SF. With Kap in the niners may keep the game closer and put up pts offensively forcing the bills to throw. I’m all in on Robert woods in GPPs

  • CleverGroom

    I like Hurns generally, think he’s way overdue to get back into the mix, but the Bears aren’t necessarily a great target. Their secondary has been sneaky good at limiting WR upside, notwithstanding the recent example to the contrary. T.Y.‘s game was manufactured by his talent, market share, and the complete lack of alternatives on his team.

    I love the Allens but I doubt we see a massive game from either this week (and certainly not both).

    If there’s a reason not to play the Bills DST again, I can’t see it. I’ll happily be overweight on them and find differentiators elsewhere.

    I will grant that Tavon has a lot of targets for his price tag. Still think it’s an uphill battle and my early sense is that he’s buzzy. Bennett was quiet all last week and still had about 12% ownership. Won’t surprise me if Tavon exceeds that.

    Doug said that Lockett is playing through a torn PCL. It’s not a trivial ligament. You need two good ones to return for TDs. Don’t do it to yourself rostering Lockett.

    What about C.J. Spiller, though? Comes in off the street and catches a touchdown right out of the gate. Rawls is still out, Prosise is still out…wouldn’t be surprised if we see CMike and Spiller mirroring Freeman and Coleman’s usage coming out of the bye. Spiller’s about the only thing that I expect to limit Michael’s upside against the Falcons.

    I’m gonna laugh when Robert Woods still sucks this week because game flow goes against him, Tygod has no rapport with him and can only throw deep (e.g. to Goodwin), his OC is a running backs coach who’s going all in on the run until someone forces him to stop, Shady doesn’t need the help against one of the very worst run Ds in the league, and p.s. Robert Woods isn’t that great at football.

    Tygod naked or McCoy is as far as I’ll go with that offense.

  • Jwsmith

    The Eagles were terrible against the run last season and shady only had 74 yards on 20 carries. He is going to be super chalky in both GPPs and Cash games. He also has had a few tds vultured this season. I’m going with Woods, it can’t hurt at only 4200 against a terrible team who’s plays at a high tempo. I also like Lamar Miller. The colts have given up a rushing td in every game this season including one to Blake Bortles and RBs have done exceptionally well against them this season fantasy wise.

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