NFL FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Did you know we have a new chat area specifically for NFL? Come get in on some NFL talk or sweat the games by clicking the Chat radio button up above or by clicking here: https://rotogrinders.com/chat?channel=nfl..

    Thursday, 10/12
    8:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 10/15
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at Minnesota ( 3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10.5 ) at Washington ( -10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -9.5 ) at NY Jets ( 9.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 4.5 ) at New Orleans ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 11.5 ) at Atlanta ( -11.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 10 ) at Houston ( -10 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -1 ) at Arizona ( 1 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 4 ) at Kansas City ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    8:30 PM EST : NY Giants ( 11.5 ) at Denver ( -11.5 ) —- T: 38.5

    Monday, 10/16
    8:30 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 0 ) at Tennessee ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • miggs6876

    I am having a tough time picking a TE. Any thoughts guys? I think I’m still shocked by Engrahm big fat zero.

  • CleverGroom

    Following up on my DFS Analyzer post from the Week 5 thread, I’m at 69% wins in five weeks of DK H2H, 89% wins in one week of FD H2H (clearly not sustainable), and 72% wins overall. 23% overall ROI. It’s everything else that’s the problem: nearly two thirds of my buy-ins have been in other games, which collectively have had a -8.82% ROI. That, plus some minor Yahoo losses I can’t track in the DFS Analyzer, has been enough to keep me in a hole for the season.

    The weird thing is that I’m actually close to breaking even in tournaments. I’m netting a -0.79% ROI there on the season. I’ve lost $42.11 out of $5,360.25 in buy-ins. If you roll in the handful of satellites I’ve done (DFS Analyzer isn’t crediting me for tickets), I’m damn close to breaking even. What’s killed me is that for the first three weeks, I got annihilated in double-ups. -85.07% ROI. You take those games out and I go from a -$440 loss on DK/FD to a $313.09 profit for the season.

    Again, I’m not sharing just to do it. I want to encourage everybody to evaluate their own results now that we have a few weeks of data. I had thought I needed to abandon tournaments, but maybe I’ve already sealed that leak by sticking to H2H exclusively in cash. I don’t mind devoting some of my bankroll to swinging at the big checks if it’s costing me less than 1% of my buy-ins each week.

    ETA: I just noticed why my tournament results were so surprising: the DFS Analyzer is busted. It’s showing my DK H2Hs (all but three, strangely) in with my DK tournaments. I’m actually at -34% ROI in tournaments, which makes a lot more sense. H2Hs, here I come!

  • CleverGroom

    @JoeyG113 said...

    These kind of stats interest me in Ben even more. The odds are stacked him and the masses would never consider playing him. Perfect spot to take one last dying stab at Ben in a GPP.

    KC defense is pretty good, and even better at home, but let’s not act like they don’t give up big plays. They have given up a 40 yard passing play in each game this season, and some multiple ones to a couple of receivers. They can be had deep. Martavis Bryant is just as dead to the DFS world as Ben is, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they connected for a couple of big plays this weekend. KC’s pass defense sets up nicely for what Pitt likes to do.

    I think this game will go under. It’s a deceptively bad spot for Big Ben and Co. to get right. You always bet the unders at Arrowhead and you’ll usually be right. I’ll probably have more Chiefs DST than anything else on DK’s main slate this week.

    All of that said, of course Big Ben stacks are an option in tournaments! Nobody will be on him after what’s been happening. Everybody and their moms know about Big Ben’s home/road splits. What fewer people remember are games like the one where Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards in Seattle (Markus Wheaton had 201 yards!).

    The dude threw 55 times last week, his receivers are studs, KC struggles to cover WRs deep and anywhere Marcus Peters isn’t, and Ben’s $5,700 on DK. Absolutely in play for GPPs, no question.

  • CleverGroom

    @BIF said...

    Looking at his game logs this year makes me want no part – the Lions think they are a running team who dumps off to the TE and RB’s now. Stafford’s 4/5 TD games are a distant memory.

    Anybody remember Taters in 2016?

    Week 1: 11.3 DKFP
    Week 2: 3.3
    Week 3: 7.2
    Week 4: 3.1
    Week 5: 7.5
    Week 6: 33.8

    My, my, would you look at the time?

    BIF’s right, though. The new-look Lions are a run-first team built around Ameer Abdullah carrying them to the goal line and then handing the reins to Zach Zenner or Darren Fells. Matthew Stafford has a bad ankle and a bad hamstring that we need to watch throughout the week (this can compromise his mobility as well as his accuracy and arm strength; see, e.g., Badford on MNF, Mariota in Houston). They won’t go away from that offensive game plan except under terrible pressure, and even last year’s Detroit defense was strangely capable against Brees1.

    The Saints, meanwhile, are rounding into at least an average defense. People have been sleeping on this process since the middle of last year, when Cameron Jordan revitalized their paunchy defensive line. Marshon Lattimore is quietly becoming this year’s Jalen Ramsey and they’re talking about moving him into the slot more often. I actually think this game might be the most obvious under candidate on the board.

    You’re going to need a lot of things to break right. It could happen in a tournament, but I wouldn’t consider Taters a good cash play. Plenty of alternatives in much better spots—lest anybody doubt it, this is definitely a Larry Fitzgerald week. Watch Stafford’s practices closely this week if you’re angling toward playing Taters.

    1 Brees is one of the most scheme-sensitive QBs in the league. We need to start talking more about this and less about his home/road splits.

    Brady and Palmer are the only QBs in the league who throw better than Brees against man coverage, yet he’s a league-average QB against zone. Defenses know this and show him zone slightly more often than usual. Detroit plays zone about 70% of the time as it is. The matchup is worse for Brees than it may appear on paper.

    Another note on the scheme sensitivity data is that Cam Newton is the most sensitive QB, favoring zone! That’s part of why he triumphed last week in Detroit. Brees and Cam are polar opposites. We can expect dramatically different results whenever they play the same teams.

  • tyleh

    CG for thursday, which of the two do you like for each one? Cam or Carson , Blount or McCafferey, Kelvin or Funchess, Alshon or Algolor, Gano or Elliot?

  • CleverGroom

    @tyleh said...

    CG for thursday, which of the two do you like for each one? Cam or Carson , Blount or McCafferey, Kelvin or Funchess, Alshon or Algolor, Gano or Elliot?

    I doubt I’ll play any of them. Probably play the full slates and fade TNF, per usual. My early-week sense is that it’ll go under and be a slightly closer Carolina win than the Vegas line shows.

    Either way, there’s a ton of injuries impacting both teams in this game, so I’d want to wait and see before making any pronouncements.

  • nancybrown

    I want to watch Green Bay Vs. Minnesota. Hello, my all dear friend can anyone give me the price of a ticket? And how can I get the ticket??

  • Pdirty25

    I totally agree that is y Ben and Martavis will be in 1 of my LUs

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @CleverGroom said...

    All of that said, of course Big Ben stacks are an option in tournaments! Nobody will be on him after what’s been happening. Everybody and their moms know about Big Ben’s home/road splits. What fewer people remember are games like the one where Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards in Seattle (Markus Wheaton had 201 yards!).

    Ben and company are done…I remember those days where I could not wait to bet the Steelers as a road dog vs anyone BUT the Patriots..but honestly Tomlin has lost this team Ben is a drama queen, and Brown and Bell are probably the two biggest bitches I have seen in a while. Last night Bell gets into a Twitter feud with Ryan Clark of all people. Clark was one of the hardest working Steelers if not one of the hardest working players in the NFL. Bitch Bell cant even make it thru a season to play in a playoff game.

    I have never seen a Steelers team like this ever..this team thinks they can turn their talent on and off..they can’t and its being exploited big time.

    I think the Chiefs will feast on defense this week and so will Hunt especially in the second half. Pittsburgh makes no adjustments what so ever..instead of pounding Bell down the Jags throat last week they toss the ball all over the place…so many 3 and outs..which exhausted the D..I see the same scenario this week..there are to many egos to feed. I honestly don’t believe they are game planning to win and they look like a team that just doesn’t care regardless.

  • Simplebitz

    @JoeyG113 said...

    These kind of stats interest me in Ben even more. The odds are stacked him and the masses would never consider playing him. Perfect spot to take one last dying stab at Ben in a GPP.

    KC defense is pretty good, and even better at home, but let’s not act like they don’t give up big plays. They have given up a 40 yard passing play in each game this season, and some multiple ones to a couple of receivers. They can be had deep. Martavis Bryant is just as dead to the DFS world as Ben is, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they connected for a couple of big plays this weekend. KC’s pass defense sets up nicely for what Pitt likes to do.

    Idk if my heart can handle another unsuccessful Steelers stack. lol Definitely will play some Bell though.

  • mike42

    @elementasrat said...

    Also had Keenan Allen who was hurt by the bitching of teammate Gordon.

    I got on MG3 late last week and it was because NY lb core sucks and d-line was banged up. Giants have 2/3’s of great cb group so WR“s are hard to target against them just because you never know who’s going to get Apple for the 1-2 big plays. Not trying to rub this one in but keep it forward looking, who went ham against the giants last week is who should moving forward, RB’s and TE’s. Let others play WR’s, especially now with negative game scripts the most likely scenario for WR’s against the Giants.

  • winnerchickendinner

    @CleverGroom said...

    Anybody remember Taters in 2016?

    Week 1: 11.3 DKFP
    Week 2: 3.3
    Week 3: 7.2
    Week 4: 3.1
    Week 5: 7.5
    Week 6: 33.8

    My, my, would you look at the time?

    BIF’s right, though. The new-look Lions are a run-first team built around Ameer Abdullah carrying them to the goal line and then handing the reins to Zach Zenner or Darren Fells. Matthew Stafford has a bad ankle and a bad hamstring that we need to watch throughout the week (this can compromise his mobility as well as his accuracy and arm strength; see, e.g., Badford on MNF, Mariota in Houston). They won’t go away from that offensive game plan except under terrible pressure, and even last year’s Detroit defense was strangely capable against Brees1.

    The Saints, meanwhile, are rounding into at least an average defense. People have been sleeping on this process since the middle of last year, when Cameron Jordan revitalized their paunchy defensive line. Marshon Lattimore is quietly becoming this year’s Jalen Ramsey and they’re talking about moving him into the slot more often. I actually think this game might be the most obvious under candidate on the board.

    You’re going to need a lot of things to break right. It could happen in a tournament, but I wouldn’t consider Taters a good cash play. Plenty of alternatives in much better spots—lest anybody doubt it, this is definitely a Larry Fitzgerald week. Watch Stafford’s practices closely this week if you’re angling toward playing Taters.

    1 Brees is one of the most scheme-sensitive QBs in the league. We need to start talking more about this and less about his home/road splits.

    Brady and Palmer are the only QBs in the league who throw better than Brees against man coverage, yet he’s a league-average QB against zone. Defenses know this and show him zone slightly more often than usual. Detroit plays zone about 70% of the time as it is. The matchup is worse for Brees than it may appear on paper.

    Another note on the scheme sensitivity data is that Cam Newton is the most sensitive QB, favoring zone! That’s part of why he triumphed last week in Detroit. Brees and Cam are polar opposites. We can expect dramatically different results whenever they play the same teams.

    Carolina runs a heavy zone and brees did fine against them

  • cheezpizza

    I only know one thing. Alvin Kamara is going to be in every lineup I make.

  • raymond333

    @miggs6876 said...

    I am having a tough time picking a TE. Any thoughts guys? I think I’m still shocked by Engrahm big fat zero.

    I think that was just a fluke because of what else was going on in that game (losing all their receivers). I’m a giants fan, and follow obviously, and they have used, and my guess would be they still will use Engram.

    You would almost think with receivers going out, he would have had some pts…but it was a mess, and probably alot of their routes involved beckham and marshall, etc, so I think he fell short just because of the situation.

    I see him doing good moving forward. And I’m not just saying that because I’m a giants fan. I told my bro to grab him too. Now that they have their receivers out, I suspect Engram will be getting alot more action.

  • dubchr7

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gillio said...

    I really like Brees this week, dudes an absolute stud at home and this game has shootout written all over it. Love a stack of Brees-Kamara-Thomas-Tate

    how many times have we seen a game with “shoot-out” written all over it just completely DUD????

  • JoeyG113

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    think the Chiefs will feast on defense this week and so will Hunt especially in the second half. Pittsburgh makes no adjustments what so ever..instead of pounding Bell down the Jags throat last week they toss the ball all over the place…so many 3 and outs..which exhausted the D..I see the same scenario this week..there are to many egos to feed. I honestly don’t believe they are game planning to win and they look like a team that just doesn’t care regardless.

    Pretty much everything you said is spot on. After watching the Steelers implode vs the Jags, why wouldn’t many of us play that Chief’s defense at home? Then, if we expect the Chief’s defense to do a number on Ben, then it makes even more sense that they keep a lead and run Hunt. Couple that with the fact Fournette just racked up 30 points on that run defense.. well damn those are sure fire plays right? That is why I won’t play them at all, and why I will go straight into the fire in a GPP.

    Now we don’t want to pick wildy with every choice we make in constructing a lineup. I can sell myself on many crazy plays each week. Unlike most teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh can block, they have the down field talent to attack a KC weakness, and they are coming off one of their worst performances in recent years. I can justify playing against the masses with that info.

    Sure the Steelers struggles could continue, and that is more likely.. I agree with you guys. But I like ugly situations that have potential to get right and within reason for a GPP. 3 weeks ago ppl said don’t play Eli and Beckham vs Philly cause they can’t block. 2 weeks ago they said Cam played awful vs the Saints at home, he won’t do much against vs NE. Last week they said don’t play AJ Green vs the Bills cause they have only given up 1 passing TD on the season and it is raining. Now more often than not I am wrong, but I will continue to find my spots to exploit when everyone else thinks it is a bad play.

    When I post, my craziness will be in constructing a GPP lineup. I don’t play cash games. I just don’t have the mindset for it.

  • raymond333

    So I’m stuck…this is for my league, but it’s for this week, so it would apply here. I lost this week, and had J Howard in last nite (still was going to lose either way), but I was hoping he did good. I think he ran some decent yards, but it didnt reflect in fantasy if he did.

    Ironically, they play Baltimore this week. J Allen had 18.5 last week, and is basically their go-to guy over there.

    So for this week, ppr, I have Bell, and either will run him with J Howard against BAL, or J Allen against CHI. A chicago fan here at my job, says Allen wont be able to do anything with CHI D…but he admits he’s biased, and I dont know if that would be the case.

    So any opinions on who to run with Bell this week?

  • Brenmike922

    @sox9 said...

    Was there ever a guy w/a tougher look on his face than Johnny U? Find one, I dare you

    He was the best

  • miggs6876

    @CleverGroom said...

    I think this game will go under. It’s a deceptively bad spot for Big Ben and Co. to get right. You always bet the unders at Arrowhead and you’ll usually be right. I’ll probably have more Chiefs DST than anything else on DK’s main slate this week.

    All of that said, of course Big Ben stacks are an option in tournaments! Nobody will be on him after what’s been happening. Everybody and their moms know about Big Ben’s home/road splits. What fewer people remember are games like the one where Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 400 yards in Seattle (Markus Wheaton had 201 yards!).

    The dude threw 55 times last week, his receivers are studs, KC struggles to cover WRs deep and anywhere Marcus Peters isn’t, and Ben’s $5,700 on DK. Absolutely in play for GPPs, no question.

    Go ahead and play him Clever.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    New Orleans defense isn’t as bad as people think, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are legit, especially Lattimore – I’d be wary of going too overboard on the Lions-Saints game, especially with the Lions trying to slow things down. Tate is definitely the one to target as Vaccaro is vulnerable out of the slot.

  • cheezpizza

    @thehazyone said...

    New Orleans defense isn’t as bad as people think, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley are legit, especially Lattimore – I’d be wary of going too overboard on the Lions-Saints game, especially with the Lions trying to slow things down. Tate is definitely the one to target as Vaccaro is vulnerable out of the slot.

    Yea. As a Saints fan, I can tell you that since Crawley has came back and been paired with Lattimore, we have been a very serviceable Defense. I don’t expect to be shutdown like we were against the Panthers and Dolphins, but I don’t think anyone is gonna run over us.

  • jimmyd1507

    @qnova34 said...

    Kevin Hogan week?

    Every week is a Kevin Hogan week.

    Hes near the tops in the league in RZ targets.

  • miggs6876

    @JoeyG113 said...

    Pretty much everything you said is spot on. After watching the Steelers implode vs the Jags, why wouldn’t many of us play that Chief’s defense at home? Then, if we expect the Chief’s defense to do a number on Ben, then it makes even more sense that they keep a lead and run Hunt. Couple that with the fact Fournette just racked up 30 points on that run defense.. well damn those are sure fire plays right? That is why I won’t play them at all, and why I will go straight into the fire in a GPP.

    Now we don’t want to pick wildy with every choice we make in constructing a lineup. I can sell myself on many crazy plays each week. Unlike most teams in the NFL, Pittsburgh can block, they have the down field talent to attack a KC weakness, and they are coming off one of their worst performances in recent years. I can justify playing against the masses with that info.

    Sure the Steelers struggles could continue, and that is more likely.. I agree with you guys. But I like ugly situations that have potential to get right and within reason for a GPP. 3 weeks ago ppl said don’t play Eli and Beckham vs Philly cause they can’t block. 2 weeks ago they said Cam played awful vs the Saints at home, he won’t do much against vs NE. Last week they said don’t play AJ Green vs the Bills cause they have only given up 1 passing TD on the season and it is raining. Now more often than not I am wrong, but I will continue to find my spots to exploit when everyone else thinks it is a bad play.

    When I post, my craziness will be in constructing a GPP lineup. I don’t play cash games. I just don’t have the mindset for it.

    That is a great post. It is probably one of the best ways to win a gpp. However, its so hard to get the correct contrarian play. I feel that many of us are always looking for that hidden gem, surprise, or breakout player to roster. I only play a few lineups for small money. Last week I only played the $7 milly on fd. Friggen had Watson with Hopkins and still didn’t cash. With that said, I try to roster players who I think will do well even if they are chalk. Then I try to differentiate a couple/few players. For you experienced guys is my thought process flawed?

  • Dunzor

    @miggs6876 said...

    Well I had ASJ and then got cute and deleted him and picked Engrahm. Cost me from cashing.

    I made this exact same mistake, though you would’ve thought with all their WR getting murdered 1 by 1 that the Giants would’ve been forced to throw to their TE a bit more

  • Chorizo

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).