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  • bhdevault

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    Thursday, 10/12
    8:25 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 3 ) at Carolina ( -3 ) —- T: 46

    Sunday, 10/15
    1:00 PM EST : Green Bay ( -3 ) at Minnesota ( 3 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : San Francisco ( 10.5 ) at Washington ( -10.5 ) —- T: 46.5
    1:00 PM EST : New England ( -9.5 ) at NY Jets ( 9.5 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( 4.5 ) at New Orleans ( -4.5 ) —- T: 50
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 6.5 ) at Baltimore ( -6.5 ) —- T: 39.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 11.5 ) at Atlanta ( -11.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 10 ) at Houston ( -10 ) —- T: 47
    4:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -1 ) at Arizona ( 1 ) —- T: 45.5
    4:05 PM EST : LA Rams ( 2.5 ) at Jacksonville ( -2.5 ) —- T: 42.5
    4:25 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 4 ) at Kansas City ( -4 ) —- T: 46
    8:30 PM EST : NY Giants ( 11.5 ) at Denver ( -11.5 ) —- T: 38.5

    Monday, 10/16
    8:30 PM EST : Indianapolis ( 0 ) at Tennessee ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays NFL thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Butternutter

    @UltiPhil said...

    Game Theory question!

    Whats your approach for 10 man contest, where top 3 gets paid.

    GPP like, since it’s top 30% who gets paid instead of 50%?

    Or Cash Game like since it’s only 9 line up to beat?

    Mostly chalk with 2 high risk/reward players

  • Dunzor

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Michael Thomas will be a lock for me this week, I love everything about his match up and I think many will be scared off with his price on DK at $7300.

    Does Darius Slay bother you at all?

  • Butternutter

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Freeman is obviously in a great spot coming off the bye at home against a horrible MIA team. He is one of only a handful of RBs that has legit 3 TD upside given how / where he is used in that offense, especially if ATL gets up early.

    I love me some Gronk this week, especially if he has a big red Q beside his name all the way up to Sunday kickoff. At $6800 he is priced at the higher end of what the mid-tier WRs are for the week and his usage / TD equity are hard to pass up.

    So far I am dialed in on Michael Thomas, Rob Gronkowski and Devonta Freeman, and I am coming around to a Case Keenum – Adam Thielen stack if Diggs is hurt. I just need to pinpoint a GB WR to come back with against the MIN DST that I like in that spot more than Will Fuller at $5200.

    Corn Cobb

  • KindGuy

    @Dunzor said...

    Does Darius Slay bother you at all?

    Didn’t bother the Panthers receiving corps on Sunday!

  • Dunzor

    @elementasrat said...

    Didn’t bother the Panthers receiving corps on Sunday!

    As a whole no, but I think he was mostly on Benjamin who only went for 4 catches and 58 yds (yes he got a TD but that is binary, either happens or doesn’t). So I agree that the Saints should be able to throw, I just don’t know if I would want to pay up for Thomas specifically if he’s shadowed by Slay

  • JoeyG113

    @Syzltuth said...

    Posted this back on page 6 but not sure if anyone answered

    Te vs browns but is griffin worth it? Not sure he’s getting used enough with Hopkins/fuller running around out there

    Yes, Griffin is worth the price. He won’t get many targets, and the Browns will have their hands full with Hopkins and Fuller. He should be open like most TEs are vs the Browns. If he steals a touchdown in the passing game, then that helps those who are not rostering Hopkins and Fuller. Griffin is the one obvious play on that Houston offense that will be lower owned, and I kinda like in a GPP.

  • miggs6876

    @infantryboys said...

    Nobody like to pay up for defenses, but if you’re playing cash on FD Main or DK Full slate, I think you’re being too cute if you fade Denver. Eli is playing behind a bad o-line with receivers he hasn’t worked with against an excellent pass defense. Plus NY can’t run the ball. Will Eli be on the same page with his receivers? I doubt it and I’ll be shocked in Denver doesn’t get at least two picks.

    Almost seems too easy. That scares me.

  • miggs6876

    @MattyK1981 said...

    Michael Thomas will be a lock for me this week, I love everything about his match up and I think many will be scared off with his price on DK at $7300.

    I agree. It looks like a 2 td day for him.

  • miggs6876

    @econbrah11 said...

    I play only cash games on FD. I don’t like many high priced WR and RB. I’ll probably end up paying up for QB.

    Really? I’m thinking the opposite. I like Wr-Thomas/Nuk and Rb- Hunt/Freeman.

  • rsrunningrebels

    @apeterson8809 said...

    Big Ben, $5,700
    ~INT #1, Ben had pressure in his face and got hit as he released the ball, slight under throw, Jalen Ramsey made an incredible play to catch that ball
    ~INT #2, ball gets tipped at the line and falls right into a jags LB hands for a pick 6
    ~INT #3, threw it into a tight window to brown, actually it was an incredible throw, but the DB knocked the ball out from behind and it bounced right into the other DB’s hands
    ~INT #4, jags player trips the intended WR while the ball is in the air, pretty bad luck TBH
    ~INT #5, big ben just basically throws it up and prays.. I’m sure he was incredibly frustrated at that point.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts0qFGXTCW4&feature=player_embedded

    Long story short, this was just a perfect storm. I’m a Chiefs fan, so I hate saying this, but remember last years reg season game, Ben went for 300 yards passing & 5 TDs.

    Here’s some plus EV correlations that pop out;
    Big Ben + Kareem Hunt + Brown (fairly obvious stack)
    Big Ben + Martavis Bryant (most likely either Mitchell or Peters, at times, will be left on an island with Bryant, they are good CBs but definitely struggle vs deep balls)

    On the Chiefs side of the ball, Kareem Hunt is the fairly obvious play. . . He has gone two weeks without scoring a TD. I think hes good for another 100 yards rushing & at least one TD

    Great analysis. I just started reading the comments in this forum and the first thing I noticed was alll the Big Ben Bashing. One guy even compared him to Jay Cutler. Wow. How can you NOT consider playing BB this week against the Chiefs for $5700 on DK? Really like the mini stacks you mention, especially the one with Hunt. On a related note, I think this week is a great spot for bounce back candidates. Big Ben, G Tate, M Bryant, just to name a few. One thing I learned in my short DFS lifespan is to RARELY jump on players that hit the previous week and to NOT completely fade talented players that had horrible games the following week. With that said, I search for value, specifically hidden value in potential PPR RBs and TEs. Anybody see any RB/TE this week that may go overlooked?

  • qnova34

    • 747

      RG Overall Ranking

    @rsrunningrebels said...

    Great analysis. I just started reading the comments in this forum and the first thing I noticed was alll the Big Ben Bashing. One guy even compared him to Jay Cutler. Wow. How can you NOT consider playing BB this week against the Chiefs for $5700 on DK? Really like the mini stacks you mention, especially the one with Hunt. On a related note, I think this week is a great spot for bounce back candidates. Big Ben, G Tate, M Bryant, just to name a few. One thing I learned in my short DFS lifespan is to RARELY jump on players that hit the previous week and to NOT completely fade talented players that had horrible games the following week. With that said, I search for value, specifically hidden value in potential PPR RBs and TEs. Anybody see any RB/TE this week that may go overlooked?

    Zach Miller is facing off against the Ravens who are No. 32 team for DVOA against the TE so far this season. Trubisky is obviously an upgrade over Glennon for Miller’s outlook no matter which way you slice it. He’s 2.9k and will probably see really low ownership with everyone trying to stream the Houston TE against the Browns or jump on the Kittle train against the Redskins weak linebackers/safeties.

  • CountKarma

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Willie Snead even slightly viable and/or potential to take away some M Thomas attn?? Think he is back this week, not positive.

  • dbullsfan

    @qnova34 said...

    Zach Miller is facing off against the Ravens who are No. 32 team for DVOA against the TE so far this season. Trubisky is obviously an upgrade over Glennon for Miller’s outlook no matter which way you slice it. He’s 2.9k and will probably see really low ownership with everyone trying to stream the Houston TE against the Browns or jump on the Kittle train against the Redskins weak linebackers/safeties.

    no reason you cant play both Miller and Griffen, definately a 2 TE week

    I think my favorite part about Miller this week is you can absolutely play him and Ravens D and have it pay off and instantly make your lineup quite unique allowing for chalk (Hunt, Watson, Nuk) in other spots

  • infantryboys

    @Dunzor said...

    As a whole no, but I think he was mostly on Benjamin who only went for 4 catches and 58 yds (yes he got a TD but that is binary, either happens or doesn’t). So I agree that the Saints should be able to throw, I just don’t know if I would want to pay up for Thomas specifically if he’s shadowed by Slay

    To be fair, Benjamin did have a couple of brutal drops.

  • dbullsfan

    Sandwiched by Home Brees and Watson, I love Matt Ryan vs the Dolphins in GPPs this week.

  • infantryboys

    I really wondering why so many people are all over Jerick McKinnon after one good half of football. I mean this is the same Jerick McKinnon who is in his 4th year with Minnesota. He was sitting on the roster when the Vikings signed Murray and drafted Cook. He could have a big game of course, but I think this is recency bias at its finest.

  • rsrunningrebels

    @qnova34 said...

    Zach Miller is facing off against the Ravens who are No. 32 team for DVOA against the TE so far this season. Trubisky is obviously an upgrade over Glennon for Miller’s outlook no matter which way you slice it. He’s 2.9k and will probably see really low ownership with everyone trying to stream the Houston TE against the Browns or jump on the Kittle train against the Redskins weak linebackers/safeties.

    Thumbs up qnova34! Like it. Thanks for the feedback. Miller def has value upside. There’s another TE I have my eyes on, in addition to Z Miller, that nobody is talking about yet this week: Austin Hooper. His price tag is decent on DK at $3500, Sanu may be out, MIA D vulnerable to TEs, A Hooper has big play capabilities. May be something worth monitoring this week.

  • miggs6876

    @CountKarma said...

    Willie Snead even slightly viable and/or potential to take away some M Thomas attn?? Think he is back this week, not positive.

    Wondering that myself…

  • mike42

    I haven’t gone through the whole thread, this forum is legitimately impacted other parts of my life in a bad way, so I’m trying to cut back but has anyone talked about the setup for Wash/SF? It’s my early favorite for best game to key in on.

  • KindGuy

    .

  • Dunzor

    @mike42 said...

    I haven’t gone through the whole thread, this forum is legitimately impacted other parts of my life in a bad way, so I’m trying to cut back but has anyone talked about the setup for Wash/SF? It’s my early favorite for best game to key in on.

    When I first saw this weeks slate of games this one popped out to me too as a potential blow up spot for Wash given they are coming off a bye and its a west coast team travelling east for 1:00pm. The problem I’m having is who to target. Cousins is in play but I just don’t think I can play him over Watson (I’m mostly a single lineup guy), so that leaves his pass catchers. I was considering Pryor initially but I just don’t know that I trust him to get enough volume given his propensity for drops. That’s kinda the problem with this whole team, the spread the ball around a lot so its hard to find one pass catcher I want to roster.

    On the flip side coming back I actually like Kittle this week, as I expect SF to be down early and throwing the ball a lot and Wash is terrible against TE. I know it is chasing points a bit given his emergence last week, but the part I like is that he’s a rookie. When I see a rookie suddenly have a good game out of nowhere I’m more likely to chase the points because that often means a team has finally discovered the player’s talent and will look to keep utilizing them going forward. This is contrast to do-nothing veteran who pops off for one great game out of nowhere (i.e. Lewis against the ravens in London) because we have a ton of history telling us they are going to go back to doing nothing.

    TL:DR – If you play multiple lineups I think you need a Cousins one thrown in there, although I have no clue who to pair him with (maybe naked). On the comeback I like Kittle to have another good game.

  • Njsum1

    @dbullsfan said...

    no reason you cant play both Miller and Griffen, definately a 2 TE week

    I think my favorite part about Miller this week is you can absolutely play him and Ravens D and have it pay off and instantly make your lineup quite unique allowing for chalk (Hunt, Watson, Nuk) in other spots

    I’m normally all about the 2TE. Just not this week. Too much value to be wasting your flex on a tight end. IMHO. I tend to use 2 TE when I need value, this week I don’t.

  • Logan7777

    @cheezpizza said...

    Yea. As a Saints fan, I can tell you that since Crawley has came back and been paired with Lattimore, we have been a very serviceable Defense. I don’t expect to be shutdown like we were against the Panthers and Dolphins, but I don’t think anyone is gonna run over us.

    As a Saints fan, what is up with Ingram? He’s getting the ball both rushing and receiving but has yet to get in the end zone.

  • MrPerfekt7

    Definitely will have some shares of Leonard Fournette and Chris Hogan, looking into Elijah McGuire (if all backs are out) and David Njoku as some cheap value options.
    This is for starters

  • qnova34

    • 747

      RG Overall Ranking

    Interesting note about the Saints backfield. In week 4 Kamara played 26 snaps after seeing 17 snaps in week 2 and 3. Ingram played on 46 after seeing 35 and 29 in weeks 2 and 3. AP went from seeing 16 snaps in weeks 2 and 3 to 6 in week 4.

    Bottom line: I think the Saints were already toying with the idea of shipping AP by the time week 4 came around which we saw in his snap count. For that reason I think it’s safe to project similar allocation to the backfield that we saw going into this week between Ingram and Kamara.

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