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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    Sunday, 10/18
    1:00 PM EST : Detroit ( -3 ) at Jacksonville ( 3 ) —- T: 53
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 2.5 ) at Carolina ( -2.5 ) —- T: 44
    1:00 PM EST : Baltimore ( -7 ) at Philadelphia ( 7 ) —- T: 47.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 9.5 ) at Indianapolis ( -9.5 ) —- T: 46
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 3.5 ) at NY Giants ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Atlanta ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Cleveland ( 4 ) at Pittsburgh ( -4 ) —- T: 50.5
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( 9 ) at New England ( -9 ) —- T: —
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( 2 ) at Tennessee ( -2 ) —- T: —
    4:05 PM EST : Green Bay ( -1.5 ) at Tampa Bay ( 1.5 ) —- T: 51.5
    4:25 PM EST : NY Jets ( 0 ) at Miami ( 0 ) —- T: —
    8:20 PM EST : LA Rams ( -3 ) at San Francisco ( 3 ) —- T: 49

    Monday, 10/19
    5:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( -3.5 ) at Buffalo ( 3.5 ) —- T: —
    8:15 PM EST : Arizona ( -2.5 ) at Dallas ( 2.5 ) —- T: 53

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for this weeks games. Post referring to last weeks games will be moved to last weeks NFL thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • jdtrey

    @Njsum1 said...

    @superjon…can you give a source where you heard Lindsay will be limited.

    https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/player-news/155008/broncos-phillip-lindsay-probably-can-t-play-a-full-load-against-new-england-in-week-6

    Fangio told reporters on Thursday that Denver will “have to keep an eye on him…We’ll have to be smart how we use him”.

  • superjon

    @Njsum1 said...

    @superjon…can you give a source where you heard Lindsay will be limited.

    From NumberFire (full quote below). This was from last night, before it was announced that MG was going to be out. Still not playing any Lindsay though

    *Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay “probably can’t play a full load” in Week 6’s game against the New England Patriots, according to Vic Fangio.

    WHAT IT MEANS:
    Fangio told reporters on Thursday that Denver will “have to keep an eye on him…We’ll have to be smart how we use him”. Lindsay could be handed more touches than Denver would have originally planned if Melvin Gordon is sidelined with his illness. However, they have shown a willingness to involve Royce Freeman when needed, and if they are serious about not allowing Lindsay to handle a full workload in his first game back following his toe injury, they could keep his touch count limited. Our models expect Lindsay to see 11.9 touches against the Patriots.

    Lindsay’s Week 6 projection includes 45.0 rushing yards, 12.3 receiving yards, 0.29 touchdowns, and 8.4 FanDuel points.

    Source: Zac Stevens*

  • Njsum1

    @superjon said...

    From NumberFire (full quote below). This was from last night, before it was announced that MG was going to be out. Still not playing any Lindsay though

    *Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay “probably can’t play a full load” in Week 6’s game against the New England Patriots, according to Vic Fangio.

    WHAT IT MEANS:
    Fangio told reporters on Thursday that Denver will “have to keep an eye on him…We’ll have to be smart how we use him”. Lindsay could be handed more touches than Denver would have originally planned if Melvin Gordon is sidelined with his illness. However, they have shown a willingness to involve Royce Freeman when needed, and if they are serious about not allowing Lindsay to handle a full workload in his first game back following his toe injury, they could keep his touch count limited. Our models expect Lindsay to see 11.9 touches against the Patriots.

    Lindsay’s Week 6 projection includes 45.0 rushing yards, 12.3 receiving yards, 0.29 touchdowns, and 8.4 FanDuel points.

    Source: Zac Stevens*

    Thanks 👍

  • synth

    @jdtrey said...

    Yea Freddie Kitchen worked out real well haha
    He’s a decent DC but I will always just think of Williams as the guy behind bountygate.

    i mean who cares about kitchens? its an interim job. they didn’t roll with williams, kicked him out, have a really good hc now, and williams is over on yet another god awful team complaining.

    losers lose.

    gregg williams is a loser.

  • feezyg

    @Straightfire118 said...

    How is Big Ben 2%? he’s the best QB play on the board crazy.

    I think the public is smelling a blowout….

  • 2ifbyC

    Thoughts on John Hightower as a 3k GPP option? Lead the team in Snap% last week. Being used in the Desean Jackson role. Crazy airyard numbers last week. I expect Wentz will be scrambling a lot this week, so I definitely see a path for them to connect on 1 or 2 big plays and return some crazy value.

  • synth

    As for this week, this is the first week where i think having a wide array of QBs is ideal across your lineups. No dak, no pat, no russ, no allen, no murray. Doesn’t seem to be any truly standout spot at the position.

    I want no part of fitzpatrick as the 2nd highest owned QB if that chart is accurate.

    I think the Steelers are someone you can pass on (and can’t really run) but whether or not Baker is a playable QB in GPPs will come down to whether the new HC focuses more on opponents weaknesses or not (their identity is to run first but you can’t really run on Pit). I think you have to do some shares of a game stack here if you’re doing 150 but it might be one I leave off otherwise.

    I think a game that has sneaky shootout potential is the Giants and Washington. Daniel Jones had a let down stats wise last week in a spot where a lot of people were on him, but he also has two TD’s called back due to penalty and was making some good throws. Goff just lit up this Skins team (I talked a few weeks ago about how Ithought people were backwards on their approach to the Washington defense due to Kyler skewing the rushing numbers and I think that’s been pretty in line since then) and the Giants are bad enough that both of these teams should be in a competitive game all four quarters. I don’t think 300/3 with 20-30 rushing is out of the realm of possibility for Jones and he’s currently going for sub 2% owned. Stack him with Slayton/Engram and bring it back with scary Terry for the full game stack. Hell, there were people running the Kyle Allen stack last week and now they have a better matchup so I might even run both sides of the game stack due to pricing of Allen.

    Claypool bumping up to 20% owned seems like a fade to me. Don’t really want to chase points on a rookie WR that came out of nowhere to blow up against a terrible Eagles secondary. Slayton at 200 more and 1/3 the ownership seems like the best pivot to me.

  • feezyg

    @synth said...

    As for this week, this is the first week where i think having a wide array of QBs is ideal across your lineups. No dak, no pat, no russ, no allen, no murray. Doesn’t seem to be any truly standout spot at the position.

    I want no part of fitzpatrick as the 2nd highest owned QB if that chart is accurate.

    I think the Steelers are someone you can pass on (and can’t really run) but whether or not Baker is a playable QB in GPPs will come down to whether the new HC focuses more on opponents weaknesses or not (their identity is to run first but you can’t really run on Pit). I think you have to do some shares of a game stack here if you’re doing 150 but it might be one I leave off otherwise.

    I think a game that has sneaky shootout potential is the Giants and Washington. Daniel Jones had a let down stats wise last week in a spot where a lot of people were on him, but he also has two TD’s called back due to penalty and was making some good throws. Goff just lit up this Skins team (I talked a few weeks ago about how Ithought people were backwards on their approach to the Washington defense due to Kyler skewing the rushing numbers and I think that’s been pretty in line since then) and the Giants are bad enough that both of these teams should be in a competitive game all four quarters. I don’t think 300/3 with 20-30 rushing is out of the realm of possibility for Jones and he’s currently going for sub 2% owned. Stack him with Slayton/Engram and bring it back with scary Terry for the full game stack. Hell, there were people running the Kyle Allen stack last week and now they have a better matchup so I might even run both sides of the game stack due to pricing of Allen.

    Claypool bumping up to 20% owned seems like a fade to me. Don’t really want to chase points on a rookie WR that came out of nowhere to blow up against a terrible Eagles secondary. Slayton at 200 more and 1/3 the ownership seems like the best pivot to me.

    I’ve got a few Washington players, I couldn’t bring myself to play any Giants. Good luck stacking this dumpster 🔥….

  • TopDawgs07

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    https://www.themishdfs.com/post/mish-helps-the-fish-week-6-nfl-draftkings-strategy

    Some of Jr’s best work

    I’ve been following him the past 3 weeks since you shared his info. I will say, some of the GPP plays aren’t for the faint of heart. I’m not sure you need to dip that far down at QB to Wentz this week. What do you think?

  • PapaDBets

    @thehazyone said...

    ummm now :)

    Always Saturday morning. I don’t ever want to do it earlier due to news.

    Thank you!

  • Pandamonious

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    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I’ve been following him the past 3 weeks since you shared his info. I will say, some of the GPP plays aren’t for the faint of heart. I’m not sure you need to dip that far down at QB to Wentz this week. What do you think?

    I’ve read it in the past, but haven’t looked this week. He usually seems to have, in my opinion, a way too big “large field GPP” QB pool. Who making 150 line ups in a large field GPP, plays 12-15 different QB’s? Once you get pas the top 4-6 options at QB, you may as well just say everyone is an option.

  • superjon

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’ve read it in the past, but haven’t looked this week. He usually seems to have, in my opinion, a way too big “large field GPP” QB pool. Who making 150 line ups in a large field GPP, plays 12-15 different QB’s? Once you get pas the top 4-6 options at QB, you may as well just say everyone is an option.

    I think it’s pretty common in MME. Last Sunday…

    Chipotle had 11
    Awesomeo had 12
    Youdacao had 13

    It looks like they have a core of 3 or 5 QBs that they’ll use in like 50 to 70 percent or so of their lineups.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’ve read it in the past, but haven’t looked this week. He usually seems to have, in my opinion, a way too big “large field GPP” QB pool. Who making 150 line ups in a large field GPP, plays 12-15 different QB’s? Once you get pas the top 4-6 options at QB, you may as well just say everyone is an option.

    I play 15 QB’s when running 150. I’m not trying to cash 150 lineups. I’m trying to hit a top 10 with one of the 150.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @superjon said...

    Lindsay’s Week 6 projection includes 45.0 rushing yards, 12.3 receiving yards, 0.29 touchdowns, and 8.4 FanDuel points.

    Source: Zac Stevens*

    Thanks, I should have never doubted you. I had watched Fangio’s report on Friday and even though he didn’t mention limiting Lindsay he mentioned they’d be calling up Cox from the practice squad if MGIII was out

  • 33BeRad

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’ve read it in the past, but haven’t looked this week. He usually seems to have, in my opinion, a way too big “large field GPP” QB pool. Who making 150 line ups in a large field GPP, plays 12-15 different QB’s? Once you get pas the top 4-6 options at QB, you may as well just say everyone is an option.

    I never did 150 lineups but I thought people that did had pretty much every QB at least once. I figured that’s why Flacco would have any ownership. Nobody can look at this slate and be like “Flacco is my SE QB this week”

  • superjon

    @33BeRad said...

    I never did 150 lineups but I thought people that did had pretty much every QB at least once. I figured that’s why Flacco would have any ownership. Nobody can look at this slate and be like “Flacco is my SE QB this week”

    For me, it depends on how many players are in my core group of QBs

    Right now, I’m really focused on Lamar, Watson and Fitzpatrick. I might also build a decent amount of Lamar and Watson naked, which means I’ll have a good amount of with one of those 3 QBs. So my total QBs might be around 8-10

  • Pandamonious

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    @thehazyone said...

    I play 15 QB’s when running 150. I’m not trying to cash 150 lineups. I’m trying to hit a top 10 with one of the 150.

    I suppose that’s one way to do it. You can spread thin and cross your fingers. Or you can have confidence in a tight group, and build as many combos with that group as possible and cross your fingers. I suppose both allow access to top 10 finishes.

  • Pandamonious

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    @33BeRad said...

    I never did 150 lineups but I thought people that did had pretty much every QB at least once. I figured that’s why Flacco would have any ownership. Nobody can look at this slate and be like “Flacco is my SE QB this week”

    I don’t know what other people to do. Clearly I’m wrong on what most do. I believe in playing your favorite plays, and playing them heavily, then branching out a little. The weeks or nights you’re dead on you smash. The weeks or nights you’re not you don’t. Can’t play everyone with 150 line ups realistically. So, why even try? At some point you have to have a cut off.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I’ve been following him the past 3 weeks since you shared his info. I will say, some of the GPP plays aren’t for the faint of heart. I’m not sure you need to dip that far down at QB to Wentz this week. What do you think?

    Lol I wouldn’t but I’m a 3/4 lineup each in a couple of 20 entry big field/3 entry mid sized field/and 6/8 of those $5 SE Hundo’s(100 players) that Chipotle,Awesemo etc like to troll. The rake is like 11% and top 22 get payed. But if I played 150 I might. Lol some of the winning GPP lineups take DFS
    bravery> Probably took some balls to click on Mitch those timeS he was in Milly winning lineup

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’ve read it in the past, but haven’t looked this week. He usually seems to have, in my opinion, a way too big “large field GPP” QB pool. Who making 150 line ups in a large field GPP, plays 12-15 different QB’s

    Yeah, he gets that from his Mother’s side

  • TopDawgs07

    I think we’ve answered the question. I like his information, I just don’t MME that many LUs. So I’m forced to take more stands and shrink my pool. I like reading his info though. I tend to look more at his small GPP info and relate it to how I play my GPPs.

    I also love Hazy’s insight when it comes to GPPs. He’s not looking to just cash, he’s looking to win.

  • 33BeRad

    @TopDawgs07 said...

    I think we’ve answered the question. I like his information, I just don’t MME that many LUs. So I’m forced to take more stands and shrink my pool. I like reading his info though. I tend to look more at his small GPP info and relate it to how I play my GPPs.

    I also love Hazy’s insight when it comes to GPPs. He’s not looking to just cash, he’s looking to win.

    We are all looking to win. Hazy just happens to be actually good at this, HAHA!

  • fleishmo6

    Any love for scary Terry this week?

  • superjon

    @fleishmo6 said...

    Any love for scary Terry this week?

    He’s a good play.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    I don’t know what other people to do. Clearly I’m wrong on what most do. I believe in playing your favorite plays, and playing them heavily, then branching out a little. The weeks or nights you’re dead on you smash. The weeks or nights you’re not you don’t. Can’t play everyone with 150 line ups realistically. So, why even try? At some point you have to have a cut off.

    This is the way to play NBA…imo. And to some degree NFL as well.

    Unfortunately, in NFL it’s once a week and injury risk is substantially high, and many players are game flow dependent. So playing this strategy is much much riskier than playing it in NBA. It’s also tougher on one mentally, as if your wrong you have to wait a whole week to go at again.

    Unfortunately the REFS play a HUGE role in your outcome, whether you realize or not. In MLB and NBA they play a very minor role. Don’t mean “you” specifically, talking about the proverbial “you.”

    It’s not just ticky tack fouls that call back TD’s, it’s ticky tack fouls that keep a chalk teams drive going when it should have stalled out and ended in a punt. Yet instead it ends in a chalk QB hooking up with a chalk WR for a 60 yrd TD who you faded and tanks your currently winning. Or it’s a lower owned hook-up that sends you from 10th to 25th In a larger field GPP….again cutting your winnings significantly. Spreading it out a bit seems wiser in GPP’s.

    Football is a great sport to play cash in, imo. Although I don’t, because whatever 🤷‍♂️
    As it greatly reduces the impact of refs and injuries as most players are highly owned in cash. You just need to differentiate in like 1 or 2 spots and you’re good.

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