• bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 15th
    8:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( -3.5 ) at New Orleans ( 3.5 ) —- T: 51

    Sunday, October 18th
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 5.5 ) at NY Jets ( -5.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( – ) at Pittsburgh ( – ) —- T: —-
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( -4 ) at Cleveland ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -2 ) at Jacksonville ( 2 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -2.5 ) at Buffalo ( 2.5 ) —- T: 45
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 7 ) at Seattle ( -7 ) —- T: 41
    4:25 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : San Diego ( 9.5 ) at Green Bay ( -9.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 7.5 ) —- T: 55

    Monday, October 19th
    8:30 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) —- T: 50

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • Mrm2010

    @dakotahwithanh said...

    I might have to make this my new username

    That’s really funny, thanks!

  • NynjaJ

    Damn, I took a chance and put Riddick in one of my lineups, which is locked since I played Freeman.

  • jacobmorris7

    AJ Green over Hopkins this week since Hopkins will be dealing with heavy winds? Or should hopkins still be a lock no matter what? And if Hopkins over Green, do I go with Eifert for the Dalton Eifert stack?

  • Drayzen

    Who’s the sneakier play this week with a bigger ceiling, Stafford or Kaepernick?

  • eppy99

    In cash games I know many try not to stack or make correlation plays to limit risk. HOWEVER, is this the week that rule gets ignored? Having read the whole thread this week, I’ve seen some Foster/Hopkins L/U’s and obviously some Pats stacks too.

    Regarding the Foster/Hopkins cash L/U I’m probably less willing to set aside the rule for this one because the Vegas total is too low.

    The Pats combo’s are very interesting though. Obviously we all know the Pats hammered the ball with the run the last few years and we have the narrative street this year to deal with so nobody really knows what Bellichek will do this year. Isn’t this the perfect reason to assume there’s too much risk in rostering more than one Pats player in cash?

    With that said, if I were to roster more than one Patriots player, I think I might pay up for Brady and roster Lewis. My thinking is if Brady does throw a lot I’m exposed to the passing game, but by rostering Lewis I’m exposed to both the passing and run game as he’s seeing plenty of targets as well.

    Please comment on my rationale. This is the most difficult decision I have this week, to roster 1 or 2 Pats players.

    Also I would love to hear more feedback from heavy cash players that tend to use stacks in the L/U’s. Are the Pats this years Bronco’s from a few years back were you could use multiple players in cash? I wasn’t playing DFS back then so I didn’t get to experiment with that team.

  • Simonsj

    my cash lineups have Brady and Lewis but I’m starting to question Lewis based on the injury news that popped up. I will monitor closely. Thinking about swapping out Lewis for lacy but lacy burned me so bad last week I’m a little scared of him now.

  • Csquared1987

    With all these injuries and weather reports, I’m glad I don’t work tomorrow…My LU’s won’t get set probably until 12:59

  • kdsdawg

    A 20 MPH has ZERO effect on a passing game with throws of less than, lets say, 40 yds.
    Correct? Airing out a bomb, yes, but throws on a line won’t be affected.

  • Mindofigor

    Thoughts on Allen Hurns this week?

  • eppy99

    Following up my earlier post about cash games, perhaps this week instead of playing H2H’s I should focus on 50/50’s or double ups. I usually like to play one cash lineup, but I’m terrified of not having enough upside this week if I don’t play more than 1 Patriot player or consider playing Hopkins/Foster in the same L/U.

    If I play the 50/50’s and DBL ups my lineups would reflect a bit more risk (rostering more than one player on a team), but I would raise my ceiling and enter more L/U’s.

    Hopefully this makes sense. Thoughts?

  • m203

    was just about to say, is playing hopkins/foster stupid?

  • eppy99

    Well that depends how much you trust the Vegas line. Vegas has the total at 43 with Houston scoring 21. If you trust Vegas then you shouldn’t roster Hopkins/Foster in cash. This is why I might have to break my habit of just 1 cash L/U and do one with Hopkins and 1 with Foster.

    At least with the Pats if I roster two players they have a much higher expected total.

  • kdriskell311

    I don’t think there is anything wrong with playing both Hopkins and Foster. With Bortles, Yeldon and Hurns all hurting, their offense may have trouble clicking. I could see a scenario where Hopkins gets you 8 for 120 and a TD and Foster hits a couple of TDs.

    I’m fading Lewis this week. I like a Brady/Gronk stack this week in cash and GPP.

  • blakevoiles

    @kdsdawg said...

    A 20 MPH has ZERO effect on a passing game with throws of less than, lets say, 40 yds.
    Correct? Airing out a bomb, yes, but throws on a line won’t be affected.

    This is completely false.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    As Blake said, 20 mph winds do have an effect. Not only on ball flight, etc..but on play calling. there is good data in Bale’s book on the effect of wind. You start to see an effect at 10mph.

  • kdsdawg

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    As Blake said, 20 mph winds do have an effect. Not only on ball flight, etc..but on play calling. there is good data in Bale’s book on the effect of wind. You start to see an effect at 10mph.

    I can’t see how on throws less than 30-40 yds. Stats stats stats….

  • kdsdawg

    @blakevoiles said...

    This is completely false.

    did you happen to notice the ?? after the Correct…It will affect Peyton’s wobbly ass throws but someone with a strong arm on shorter throws, hard for me to see that. But, if so it basically takes away Hopkins. Foster is a must play for sure.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    @kdsdawg said...

    I can’t see how on throws less than 30-40 yds. Stats stats stats….

    Part of the effect is that coaches will call less pass plays. And less long pass plays. Less yards per attempt and less pass plays effects the passing game. Not saying Hopkins couldn’t have a good game, but I’d expect less targets. It may actually just neutralize the good matchup—so instead of expecting a monster game – 30+ pts, He may just be around his average which is still over 2X value.

    Conversely, I like Foster even more. I expect more rush attempts and plenty of looks in the short passing game.

  • TommyWantWingy33

    What’s the best lower level dk gpp? Want to use 2-4 line ups but can’t throw my money in the milly fire. Any opinions on the gpp under 10-15 dollars?

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I actually think Hopkins will be fine..I just don’t want the near 100% exposure to him that I initially had.

    I think Robinson will be affected more – between the weather and Bortles injury. Plus his average target is further downfield.

  • Capone1233

    Hopkins almost exclusively runs crossing routes 10-20 yards down field. I think they will be fine.

  • Cityworkout

    Who is the best cash TE on FD? I was on Gates but a lot of people seem off him. Bennett seems okay but he isn’t exactly consistent. Eifert could be an option because he will get those short passes against BUF rush defense.

    How much of a downgrade is Forte from Bell? Forte is $600 cheaper and it becomes harder to get the team you want with Bell.

  • beauvanlaanen

    I have Kaepernick in cash games on DK and Stafford on FD… PRAY FOR ME!

  • beauvanlaanen

    @Wrightime said...

    Wow seahawks are favored by 7 .. Obsurd line

    Why? Panthers have beaten 4 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL. Line is prob too low tbh.

  • beauvanlaanen

    @Bigbluecrew said...

    Bortles has another nice matchup against Houtson.

    Houston got torched by Hasselback and Bortles is a lot younger and faster than he is

    His shoulder injury is a bit concerning imo.

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