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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Thursday, October 15th
    8:25 PM EST : Atlanta ( -3.5 ) at New Orleans ( 3.5 ) —- T: 51

    Sunday, October 18th
    1:00 PM EST : Washington ( 5.5 ) at NY Jets ( -5.5 ) —- T: 41
    1:00 PM EST : Kansas City ( 3.5 ) at Minnesota ( -3.5 ) —- T: 44.5
    1:00 PM EST : Miami ( 2.5 ) at Tennessee ( -2.5 ) —- T: 43.5
    1:00 PM EST : Arizona ( – ) at Pittsburgh ( – ) —- T: —-
    1:00 PM EST : Chicago ( 3 ) at Detroit ( -3 ) —- T: 43
    1:00 PM EST : Denver ( -4 ) at Cleveland ( 4 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Houston ( -2 ) at Jacksonville ( 2 ) —- T: 42.5
    1:00 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -2.5 ) at Buffalo ( 2.5 ) —- T: 45
    4:05 PM EST : Carolina ( 7 ) at Seattle ( -7 ) —- T: 41
    4:25 PM EST : Baltimore ( -2.5 ) at San Francisco ( 2.5 ) —- T: 44
    4:25 PM EST : San Diego ( 9.5 ) at Green Bay ( -9.5 ) —- T: —
    8:30 PM EST : New England ( -7.5 ) at Indianapolis ( 7.5 ) —- T: 55

    Monday, October 19th
    8:30 PM EST : NY Giants ( 3.5 ) at Philadelphia ( -3.5 ) —- T: 50

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – NFL strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • Jeremy6Morehead

    Ok, if you guys are complaining about the wind in that game, then what do you think about Cecil Shorts? No Nate Washington so he will be the #2 wide. If they’re gonna be throwing short passes all day I could see Cecil having a good game and get you close to 4-5x Value. Thoughts???

  • beauvanlaanen

    @Drayzen said...

    Who’s the sneakier play this week with a bigger ceiling, Stafford or Kaepernick?

    Kaep with higher upside imo, but I really like both this week.

  • beauvanlaanen

    @Drayzen said...

    Who’s the sneakier play this week with a bigger ceiling, Stafford or Kaepernick?

    Kaep on DK (stone min) and Stafford on FD.

  • Shipmymoney

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      2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

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    @beauvanlaanen said...

    Kaep with higher upside imo, but I really like both this week.

    Despite the Ravens’ awful defense, I think the Niners offense significantly limits Kaep’s upside. He just doesn’t get to throw the ball downfield. I think Stafford has much higher upside between the two

  • lakerfan38

    thoughts on marvin jones?

  • Drayzen

    @Shipmymoney said...

    Despite the Ravens’ awful defense, I think the Niners offense significantly limits Kaep’s upside. He just doesn’t get to throw the ball downfield. I think Stafford has much higher upside between the two

    I’m going to expose both in some lineups. Kaep runs as well so I wouldnt be surprised if he gets a TD himself.

    Stafford to Johnson/Tate could go off also.

  • lovestarsz

    I picked Mccgown in 75% of my lineups last week and am up $10,000 on the year. I’m all in on Bell/Foster, Gates, Hopkins, Edelman, then have rosters spread between Brady (15), Kaepernick (6), Dalton (4).

    Vikings/Jets/Bengals/Broncos/Redskins for Defense.

    Each of my 25 rosters then has about 8 sleeper picks spread between them.

  • Jkray25

    Forte/A Robinson or Lacy/Edelman

  • SRQ750

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    There’s lots of faith being put in the defense vs. position rankings. 5 weeks in and the data is getting better. I like to take this one step further.

    instead of looking just at the average pts allowed by a defense to each position, I calculate the variance to the mean..How many points above or below each team’s average production does the defense allow?

    So if a team played 5 top 10 running backs in the first 5 weeks, the standard method would show that they are weak against the run..but if they held each of these teams below their season average fantasy points, the standard method will be misleading.

    i think that ranking gave me a better picture of match ups to exploit.last year I went as far as projecting player point totals based on this and usage data..but I think that had me focusing too much on projections and not enough on feel. That method was really good at identifying some outliers that no one was talking about.

    This is a fantastic post! I’m trying to do the same thing.

    This is the problem with Pro Football Focus’ rankings – it’s a cumulative of the year to date data without taking into account for strength of schedule. However, I think Mike Clay does an amazing job with the WR/CB match ups. With that being said, I much prefer Football Outsiders. They do adjust their rankings for strength of schedule.

    For selecting RBs I tend to pay more attention to Football Outsiders. I rank the Offensive Lines vs. the Defensive Lines the RB will be facing, and then “eye ball” the RBs that get touches vs. a time-share or committee system. Again, this is just ranking Offensive vs. Defensive Lines. As an example, Atlanta had the 4th best offensive line vs. New Orleans’ 23rd best defensive line against the run. I then do a “differential” and rank the opportunities. Atlanta was the strongest play of the week, and you saw what they were doing with BOTH Freeman and Coleman before they abandoned the run. I was all in with Freeman on about 350 different 50/50 entries, and paired with Forte in 2/3 of my line-ups and with Lacy in another 1/3. 65-70% of the field was also in on Freeman, but in 50/50s, who cares? This means about 1/3 of the field is REALLY playing catch up to cash. If Freeman was a bust, then the whole field virtually busted on him. I always go heavy in the Thursday games and like to fade the players for the most part, but you’re absolutely toast if you fade obvious plays with high totals like the ATL/NO game.

    The other RBs that appear to be strong plays using this type of analysis include Lacy (although I used him on Thursday, I think there’s more of a time share than most people realize, and there’s alos the Aaron Rodgers factor), Forsett (I’m not going to roster him with the ankle), Gore (I’m passing with game flow concerns), Ivory (stronger play than most think this week – 5.5 pt favorite, B. Powell is hurt), Peterson, Forte and Lewis/Blount. There’s more options this week than in many weeks using this type of analysis.

    Last week this analysis pointed to Le’Veon Bell, Jamaal Charles (was getting into a flow early in the 2nd half before getting hurt), Joseph Randle (passed with game flow concerns), Forsett, and Dion Lewis. All had great games besides Charles, and his low production was largely due to the injury. Week 4 this analysis was “iffy”, but it also nailed Adrian Peterson and Latavius Murray in week 3.

    For the Sunday games I’m mainly using Peterson and Forte, and will sprinkle in Ivory and Lewis (concerned with injury report and sharing time with Blount) in order to pay up and grab some WRs, namely Hopkins. Selecting RBs this way has allowed me to win about 80% of my cash games. I seldom go over $8,000 (FanDuel) for QBs.

    This post isn’t intended to come across as an expert, show off or know it all – it’s not my personality. However, I see a ton of newer players in this weekly topic asking “who should I play?” or relying very heavily on the “experts.” The problem with experts is there are so damn many of them, and trying to build a consensus has only created a ton of “white noise”, at least for me. For me the research is the fun in Daily Fantasy – seeing if your hard work during the week results in a profit or a loss.

    Good luck to everyone this week!

  • SRQ750

    @DaddyDukes said...

    Any thoughts on Richard Rodgers this week for GPP?

    I think he’s a strong play, especially for GPPs.

  • vince921

    Cash Game… Lamar Miller to Risky??

  • HeroFnStatus

    Would you guys go Peterson/Gates or Forte/Eifert in GPP?

    Thanks.

  • SRQ750

    @vince921 said...

    Cash Game… Lamar Miller to Risky??

    Absolutely.

  • Colin408

    @SRQ750 said...

    Absolutely.

    Very risky in cash… GPP is doable though. Wouldn’t feature him that heavy though. I think he’s in about 10% of my GPP lineups. Currently at 50 lines, see a few nice options for Sunday so I’m thinking of bumping it to 75

  • thephenom

    There is risk but as a Miami native there has been considerable talk this week in media, AM radio, and coaching staff about establishing the running game. Lamar Miller is a good, if not great, back and who should see over 15-22 touches of various forms this week. He is a good play especially if pairing with the likes of Forte or Perterson. Easily could see Miller rush for 50-70 yds, catch 2-3 balls for 30, and get in the end zone. IMO i put him equal/above Bernard, slightly below Lacy and Ivory this week.

    Miller is a very good 50/50 play and holds equal amount of risk as an obese Lacy and Ivory going against a very tough front imo.

    On another note, JJ Watt very possibly out tomorrow with illness.

  • HeroFnStatus

    Thanks.

  • croesus

    .

    I’m building an algorithm for projections, it’s a pretty sophisticated model. Part of the approach includes combing different sources of projections. Who else do you guys trust?

  • SRQ750

    @croesus said...

    I’m building an algorithm for projections, it’s a pretty sophisticated model. Part of the approach includes combing different sources of projections. Who else do you guys trust?

    The only two guys I listen to are Evan Silva and Adam Levitan. It’s primarily for “game flow.”

  • vince921

    Thank you for the great response …. I did indeed have him paired with forte ….. Sometimes I guess might aswell go with your gut …. And I do feel he has a breakout game tomorrow 👍

  • Colin408

    @DaddyDukes said...

    Would you guys go Peterson/Gates or Forte/Eifert in GPP?

    Thanks.

    Gates/Forte if possible…. If not, Peterson/Gates,

  • Drayzen

    @Colin408 said...

    Gates/Forte if possible…. If not, Peterson/Gates,

    I have a lineup with all 3. :D

  • zpa1989

    anyone going to punt abdullah with riddick looking unlikey? or am i just crazy here. “ESPN Lions reporter Michael Rothstein considers Ameer Abdullah a candidate for a breakout game” per roto.

  • Colin408

    @zpa1989 said...

    anyone going to punt abdullah with riddick looking unlikey? or am i just crazy here. “ESPN Lions reporter Michael Rothstein considers Ameer Abdullah a candidate for a breakout game” per roto.

    Not a fan of it tbh, if it’s under 5% on a sample of 100 then I don’t see much wrong with it.

  • Drayzen

    Havent thought about Abdullah to be honest. Joique may steal some of his touches this week. If anything I’d go for the Lions WRs.

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    @SRQ750 said...

    This is a fantastic post! I’m trying to do the same thing.

    This is the problem with Pro Football Focus’ rankings – it’s a cumulative of the year to date data without taking into account for strength of schedule. However, I think Mike Clay does an amazing job with the WR/CB match ups. With that being said, I much prefer Football Outsiders. They do adjust their rankings for strength of schedule.

    Thanks..I did post those rankings in their own thread. Here’s the link to the google sheet..

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1in3D2m71XsUlILaLqgmCouAG-sx0GwZWLg92ZGDSKX0/edit?usp=sharing

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